Ups & Downs

Tweet It was one of those roller coaster weekends with lots of ups & downs...let's take a look:

Big Ups

- The emergence of several exciting 2yo's in the weekend stakes races were well documented around the interwebs. Personally, my hunch (Derby?) colt will be Buddy's Saint (childhood nickname).

- Kodiak Kowboy's big win in the H&D Cigar Mile gave him 3 Grade I's this year and us blogger types another Eclipse Award debate for Sprinter of the year (although not sure a mile win qualifies as a sprint).

- The 'Cuse hoops squad! They are for reals, yo! Next Dome trip, Feb 10th vs. UConn...Dome dog report: very tasty.

- The Bills! TO is TO bound this week....and so am I. A trip to Woodbine Thursday after noon followed by a date with the J-E-T-S in the SkyDome....err Rogers Centre. Woodbine report on Friday.

- My fantasy football team. Thank you Mr. Brees, for delivering the 13 points I needed tonight before halftime, my body thanks you. Which reminds me, I loved the TVG fantasy horse racing stable game/league I was in a few years ago where each competitor selected five colts and five fillies and had 25 or so free moves. Points were awarded based on hitting the board in graded stakes every weekend. I would so do it again, and what a great way to get young techie type fans involved.

- The Space Gal....for unloading an early Xmas present on me.....HRTV online!!! I no longer need my HRTV! I watched the "Tribute to Bobby" special tonight on my computer as my first foray into HRTV....I think I'm gonna like this.

Down in the Dumps

- Summer Bird. I was distraught Saturday night when the Paulick Report was first to break the story about his injury in Japan a week before he was to run in the Japan Dirt Cup (G1). Best wishes for a quick recovery to one fo my favorites.

- Notre Dame Football. Really, you voted not to go to a bowl game. Really Notre Dame? They're kidding, right? Funny, I heard Jimmy Clausen's postgame interview on Saturday night and it sure sounded like he wanted to go bowling. They need to get over their own selves (not sure that's proper grammar, but no one's grading this blog, so I think I'm safe).

- Elin Woods. Poor club selection, a driver was the obvious pick.

-Lady's Secret. Even though I had to look up her achievements, she was obviously disrespected by the decision to yank the name of her race and give it to Zenyatta. Big thumbs down.

The Lineup

Tweet Black Friday. The Day After. What's on your plate? Here's what's in my lineup today....

- Cybershop. (Already done)

- Football. ('nuf said...first game 11am)

- Leftovers. (mmm...)

- Beer. (return to football when complete and start cycle over for several hours)

- 4.29pm EST Clark Handicap (via TwinSpires TV). Leaning towards Etched, Blame and Macho Again. Nice card today at Churchill.

- 5.00pm EST Duke/UConn basketball on the WWL. Let's just say we are Duke haters here in the Space Station....My top 5 hate teams: (1) Duke (2) Duke (3) Duke (4) Patriots (5) Yankees; Honorable Mention - Duke.

- 6.55 pm EST Carrier Dome Concessions. Dome Dog #1, beer.

- 7.00 pm EST Carrier Dome, Section 114. SU-Columbia hoops. I'll be sitting next to the Gal with the Blue and Orange face paint.

- 7.40pm EST Carrier Dome Concessions. Take one guess (hint: see 6.55pm).

This is looking to be one fine day.....

Thanks for Coming!

Tweet It's the time of year to give thanks and I'll jump on the bandwagon to give thanks for a few things. It's fun to look back at last year's Thanksgiving post to see what I was up to and where I've degenerated to (mainly so I don't repeat myself)

- #1 on the list is always set aside for the Space Gal and the joy she brings me each and every day. How anyone could put up with my nonsense day in and day out is beyond me. Not to mention the wonderful gift of the Space Kid that she gave me this year. You're the best.

- The Toga Resident came through with the EquiSpace suite once again during my summering in Saratoga and makes for the best host and takes care of me every year. It is much appreciated.

- Being a member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance has been a wonderful experience, meeting great friends and sharing ideas. The opportunities this group has presented me over the past year at the Bloodhorse (latest post over there is up to 58 comments - a record for me!)and the NTRA were tremendous.

- I'm thankful that I was able to cross a few tracks off my list this year and they were both spectacular: Keeneland and Santa Anita. Our Kentucky trip was filled with great memories and meeting new friends. The Space Kid was able to knock off two great tracks (KEE and Churchill) in his first year of life. Experiencing the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita was definitely one of the year's highlights for me.

- I'm thankful I was able to visit Old Friends, and our guide Mercer, gave us a great tour of an outstanding property. We were so fortunate to be on hand to see EscapedFromNewYork (a Paragallo horse) arrive on the scene.

- I'm thankful we still have a pro football team in Buffalo (well, at least one that dresses up like one).

- I'm thankful that Fort Erie Race Track was able to stay open for quick jaunts across the bridge to get a quick fix.

- I'm thankful for $0.50 Pick-3's and Pick-4's.

- I'm thankful that I was able to meet some horsemen over the past year (the Obviously NY Stable guys and Bona Venture Stables) that have supported me and this blog.

- I'm thankful for having the opportunity to partially own a horse with Frank at That's Amore Stables, who did more than you could ever ask for as the managing partner. While it didn't end well for Higher Authority, Frank was professional and did what was best for our filly all the way through.

- I'm thankful I was able to attend my fourth consecutive Belmont Stakes (courtesy of NYRA's Media folks - thanks!) to see my favorite horse Summer Bird take the cake.

- Finally, I'm very thankful for everyone who stops by to check out this site and leave a comment every once and a while. I hope you enjoy your stay while you're here...so thanks for coming.

- I'm thankful for having a sense of humor.....even during hard times.

So off to the 'Cuse for the holiday weekend with the extended family. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

The Idea Guy

Tweet He's at it again, and I think he's on to something. Our fellow blogger and TBA founder, Handride (Handy, for short) has a post up over at Thoroughbred Times about some pretty sharp ideas for rebranding the Breeders' Cup. He writes about his system for determining who gets into the BC gate and to be frank, the actual gate to be selected via standings determined from graded stakes results. He came up with the standings idea years ago (see TBA Standings in the left margin) and now he's putting the concept to good use. The current Win & You're In system is confusing and to be honest, for the race I covered over at the NTRA (the Dirt Mile), only one of the four qualifiers even ran in the actual race. Not really a big lead in to race day.

Let's start beating the drum, folks, if Patrick can sell the editor of the TTimes, we're on our way to making some noise. A lot of my fellow bloggers have blown the "keep it simple" horn in the past and this is another avenue to simplify something that is currently a complex hot mess. All aboard?

Junior Seau, horse trainer

Tweet Longtime NFL linebacker (man, I thought he retired) Junior Seau is being featured on a new show on Versus called Sports Jobs with Junior Seau. On the show he tries out different sports related jobs. On January 20th of the new year he'll try his hand out as a horse trainer. This one should be must see TV for horse racing buffs.

Horse racing has proven to be a decent reality show venue with last year's introduction of Jockeys that has catapulted the images of racing jocks like Joe Talamo, Mike Smith and Chantal Sutherland. The fact that Versus jumps on the bandwagon can only be a good thing for our sport. Ironically, when I held a poll several months ago asking which television station would be best served to replace ESPN, this is the network that topped my unscientific poll decisively.

Seau's new show has him trying out different sports jobs such as cut man for a MMA fight, major league bat boy, stadium construction crew worker, NHL equipment manager, pit crew member (Indy Car), Sports Illustrated sportswriter, LPGA Tour caddie, a member of an arena conversion crew and a bullfighter at an event in Toronto (video).

According to Alan Pergament's article in the Buffalo News this morning, a Versus press release stated that "Seau will feed, groom, shoe, clean and care for racehorses, and then do the dirtiest job he's done yet … castrate a live horse."

Can you Say Ow?

My Dream BC Rotation

Tweet So as the anticipation builds (are you holding your breath?) for the Breeders' Cup Committee to release their rotation plan for the next few Cups (or maybe more), I am putting out there my dream rotation and in-depth reasons why. There is much debate on whether pre-setting the lineup makes sense or not. My dream plan rotates a synthetic track in every three to four years, rotates the larger venues more frequently, but adds a "boutique" track every four years also.

Of course 2010 is set in stone at Churchill Downs, so we'll start the dream rotation with 2011.

2011 - Belmont Park. It'll have been six years since the Big Sandy hosted. I remember it well being in Hilton Head on a golf trip in '05 with a few horseballs who skipped a back nine for the start of the Cup.

2012 - Del Mar. One of the "boutique" rotations, but also notching a synthetic track on the rotation. Warm weather, great facility, Southern California knows how to promote it....if they could pull this off it would be tremendous.

2013 - Churchill Downs. Why not? The facility is tremendous, they can pack 'em in and maybe the first ones under the lights? Plus it'll be the big 5-0 for me and a cool trip.

2014 - Aqueduct Racetrack. OK, stop laughing, it should take about 5 years to get the renovations done and since they'll have selected the winning bidder for the VLT's in 2012, it should be good to go in 2014. Hey, I guy can dream, no?

2015 - Keeneland. Let's give a brother a chance. Questions on the capacity and parking could be solved via temporary/infield seating and a shuttle service? It's a great facility and deserves to hold the Cup someday. Boutique/synthetic rotation works too.

2016 - Hialeah Park. Hot damn would that be great or what? Let it Ride, baby.

2017 - Belmont Park. The six year rule would kick in and bring it back to New York, New York.

2018 - Woodbine. Synthetic rotation and I'm only 90 minutes away which is why it had to make the rotation. May have to bring in some large space heaters. Back up plan: Santa Anita. 24 years is a long waiting period.

2019 - Gulfstream Park. Nice Florida weather, Halsey should have the place in ship shape and adding some additional seating on the stretch drive should do the trick. 20 year anniversary of the last GP Cup.

2020 - Santa Anita. Surreal setting, can't go longer than 10 years without a return visit. Great sightlines (20/20 get it?)

That's my ten year plan with some serious speculation regarding a couple of the venues...whaddya think?

Jauronimo!

Tweet Apologies for going a tad off topic today. Things have been a little lean around these parts since the early to mid nineties as far as our NFL franchise goes. As a season ticket holder and loyal fan for over 22 years, I think we've hit rock bottom. The past 10 years since the jaw-dropping homerun throwback in Nashville have been pure torture from a fan's perspective. We're through four coaches since then and nary a winning or playoff season. Unfortunately the town lives and dies by this team's fortunes (or should I say misfortunes) and it has been calling for Jauron to be fired since last season. Looking past a potential new coach, is the looming possibility of the team moving out of town. The current 91 year old owner (and horseman) Ralph C. Wilson, Jr. has kept his word in keeping the team in Buffalo, but once his inevitable passing occurs, his instructions to his heirs are to sell the team. My guess is that the team will end up in LA, a large television market with a new stadium that is currently in the works. A shame really, but the economics of the matter is where the end game lies, and looking in the mirror, this town can no longer support an NFL franchise. The likes of Jerry Jones have changed the landscape and face it, trying to sell luxury boxes and personal seat licenses in a blue collar town, just isn't going to cut it economically for the price that someone will have to pay ($800 mil?) to buy it from the Wilson estate. So, I guess I'll just enjoy them while they're still here and not complain about the front office or coaching staff, cuz we're lucky to have a team here when it's all said and done.

I've been reading a lot about the late Bobby Frankel (RIP) on the interwebs and it seems that most folks are on one end of the spectrum or the other (loved him or hated him). The story that he missed a race for his sick dog though tells a lot about what he must have been about. Too bad he couldn't have gone out a winner (Ventura) in the Breeders' Cup, but his last entrant at Hollywood Park actually won!

I dabbled a little on Friday night at Hollywood Park and set a personal record winning six straight bets on the first five races (including two trifectas betting less than $3 on each). That's one I'll probably never top. The streak was halted after one win at Aqueduct on Sunday afternoon (while trying to stomach the aforementioned football team) at seven. Not bad, eh?

Top Chef Final Five tonight....will my boy Eli hang on to make the Final Four in Napa and keep some bragging rights alive with the Saratoga Resident. Fingers crossed in the Space Station. Stay tuned. Check here for a preview of tonight's epi.

Sunday Sidebar

Tweet Anyone else sick of the Horse of the Year debate? Well you won't be finding any 4,500 word posts here discussing the merits of the two fine horses that completed fantastic campaigns in 2009. I almost posted a poll asking if anyone cares who wins HoTY....yes or no....but why add another poll on HoTY when there are 2,000 polls that are already out there? So here's some helpful hints to guide the voters in the soon to be historic (LOL) vote to be televised on a satellite station near you during peak racing season (January). Of course, if you want real data you can find Railbird's tale of the tape here which makes it pretty clear who the winner is, in this non-voter's eyes, which is what I based the 400 votes I have made so far on other blogs.

The chalk eating weasel will be chiming in with his pick. Looks like herring is going to go up another vote.

Don't follow horse racing? You can always vote for Pedro.

Word's out that Summer Bird is running a dirty campaign.

If you're not sure of the protocol for Horse of the Year voting, you can look it up in here.

Will there be an East Coast bias?

Or a West Coast bias?

Do not be distracted when voting because stupid is what stupid does....

When in doubt....you can never go wrong voting for Beer.

The Good, the Bad and the Hungry

Tweet Is there a badder dude in movie history than Teddy KGB...I think not. One of my favorite movies of all time...so he'll be my category sponsor for the Bad....

I took a little hiatus from the blog trying to get back on East Coast time after the trip west for the Breeders' Cup. What a whirlwind trip it was so I figured I'd share my thoughts on the good, the bad and the hungry (Top Chef Pool update).


The Good (sponsored by the sun):

- Zenyatta. What more can be said. The girl was crazy good. Can't wait for the match race.

- Santa Anita Park. Coming from Buffalo you forget what that blur in the sky looks like and my goodness it was beautiful out there. The mountain backdrop, the shrubbery, the paddock, I could go on for days. It's a must see for you East Coasters that have never made the trip.

- Ernie Munick's vlogging. Top notch stuff. The cat kills me.

- Bench handicapping. Hangin' under the trees near the paddock in the early morning handicapping was super cool. Nice and breezy in the morning and there was quite a buzz in the air on both mornings.

- Two Days. Making the long trip for one day just wouldn't do it for me. It reminded me of my first Derby trip where we had a blast on Oaks Day (Filly Friday) with great anticipation of the big event of the Derby (Classic).

- My guest. Being with a horse guy and friend for the three days was tremendous. The things I learned from him over the weekend were invaluable. Let's hope his star mare La Chica Rica has a good comeback this winter.

- The Roar. The crowd went bananas during the stretch drive of the Classic. One of the coolest things I've ever encountered at a sporting event.

- Conduit and Goldikova. Back to back championships for these two turf horses. Was fun to see.

- The Fountain at the Americana. We were mesmerized by it, and any fountain that can do its thing with Sinatra playin' works for me.

(Honorable Mention: Flight from LA to Midway - sub 3:59...sweet.)

The Bad (Sponsored by Teddy KGB):

- LA Traffic. I hate the overuse of the word fail. Do I need to say more?

- Midshipman. Watching my NTRA Dirt Mile pick wash out in the paddock; I knew it was a bad omen (although he finished a respectable third). Going back and re-reading my thoughts on Furthest Land, I can't believe I chickened out picking him: ("I love this horse’s pedigree on the all-weather and he comes in second off the layoff. I’m very high on this horse and will be playing him in the exotics.")

- Handicapping. Many lessons learned.

- Colonel John. When I'm on him, he loses. When I throw him out, he wins. Go figure. Tried to play the sire card in the Classic (thought it was the year of the sire - see Summer Bird's Belmont), but he flattened in the stretch for the second straight year. Keyed him and Gio Ponti in a trifecta wheel over Twice Over, Zenyatta and MTB...so close.

- Picking the wrong betting line. Is it me or does everyone else always get behind the 5 minute wager guy? Cost me seeing Zenyatta's parade prance. Memo to all, don't get behind me in any line (food, DMV, toll, border crossing, etc.)

The Hungry:

This is where you racing fans can tune out. Thanks for coming.

Our Top Chef pool of $200 (winner/survivor take all) is down to five of the original nine contestants and oddly enough the top five selections are still alive. I thought for sure my boy Eli was going home this week for his popcorn/caramel apple/peanut soup (aka The Space Kid's tray after most meals). So we're left with #1 selection Jen (one of the Space Gal's Smo's), #2 selection Kevin (Saratoga Resident), #3 selection Michael Voltaggio (mom of fellow alumni), #4 selection Bryan Voltaggio (Space Gal) and yours truly had the #5 pick, and went with Eli after much deliberation with the Space Gal (looks like it's panned out so far). Personally I think it's going to come down to the V brothers (with the Space Gal coming away with the big V), as I think Jen will wilt under pressure, Eli's gone as far as he can and Kevin will choke ala Richard Blais last year. Of course you all know how my handicapping is. For more Top Chef hilarity, check out the weekly podcast or follow this top chef list in twitter (they are some funny folk).

The Power of Zen

Tweet

When in Los Angeles and you speak of the power of Zen, one usually thinks of super coach Phil Jackson of the Lakers. Not this weekend. There’s not much more that can be said or written about what I and 58,844 of my closest friends witnessed yesterday at Santa Anita Park. It was truly a majestic win in what can be called the Sport of Queens for the racing year 2009. Five year old mare Zenyatta certainly didn’t disappoint the hometown patrons who showed up en masse on a beautiful day at the Great Race Place. I can certainly say I came away a believer and with a lot less dough than I came with, but to witness history in the making was certainly one of the coolest things I’ve seen in my brief sojourn as a racing fanatic and well worth the trip to La La Land. Not only did trainer John Shireffs pull off the Double-Double for the two 2009 Classics (Female and Male) but he became the first trainer to train a filly or mare winner in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Cheers to the connections as they truly had her ready to roll and she ate up every minute of it. I was aboard Colonel John (son of two time Classic winner Tiznow) and Gio Ponti (thanks JB!) and had Twice Over in my exotics, but just didn’t think she could get the distance, not to mention I’m not Mike Smith’s biggest fan. She sure did prove me and many others wrong. The only downside to it all is we have to go through three months of Horse of the Year blather, I'm going to leave it up to the voters, cuz my opinion matters not. Why can't folks just savor the moment, I know I certainly will?

We had another spectacular day at the track and finally had a couple winners early to ease the damages, but overall I had difficultly trying to figure out the Pro Ride, the Euro invaders and how the East Coast horses would fare. That’s the name of the game on the big race days now with the three surfaces (you could argue more as each synthetic has its own idiosyncrasies). Regardless, we had an absolute blast and I have memories to treasure for a lifetime that will certainly have a place on the shelf in my top ten sporting events Space List.

We frequented the paddock for most of the day, so here’s Breeders' Cup Day Two in pictures:

We were on fire early so they brought in the locals to cool us off…would like to report that it worked.

Juvenile Turf winner Pounced ($6.80) parading in the paddock.

Turf Sprint winner California Flag ($8.80)

EquiSpace favorite Canadian Ballet…whoops Alan you’re on too soon….get off! She ran very respectful race and was in the hunt until the stretch drive. She did the boys from Obviously NY Stables very proud with the 5th place finish.

Dancing in Silks chillin’ in the paddock. Don’t you hate when you have a horse highlighted and starred in your Form and then don’t use her? Ugh. Did have show bets on Crown of Thorns and Cost of Freedom, but a big opportunity was missed here.

25-1 longshot Dancing in Silks ($52.60) making her move in the stretch drive to overtake 15-1 Crown of Thorns.

Garret Gomez on Lookin at Lucky in the post parade, nipped at the wire in the Juvenile by Vale of York. He ran a great race from the 13 post having to overcome a 7 wide clubhouse turn.

Two time BC Mile champ Goldikova making her patented stretch move just beyond the eighth pole.

How happy is Goldi’s connections doing the post race victory lap?

As predicted, Ready’s Echo blew up all my exotics in the Dirt Mile, here’s Calvin Borel up in the post parade.

Presious Passion first time by us – hey where’s everyone else? Still amazed he hung on for the placing after those crazy early fractions.

Mrs. Stronach not lookin’ so happy.......wonder why?

Zenyatta ruling the paddock like royalty.

Gio Ponti looked terrific in the jam packed paddock before the Classic.

They break in the Classic and Regal Ransom grabs the early lead.

Mighty Zenyatta with Mike Smith making his move on the outside on their way to victory

That’s a wrap on a great weekend in the City of Angels, hope you enjoy the pics.

Lastly, big kudos to the Breeders’ Cup for putting on quite a show.

Filly Friday at the Breeders' Cup: The Day in Pictures

Tweet All I can say about Santa Anita Racetrack is a big ole' Wow! The place was absolutely stunning on Friday. I'm sold (well, other than the traffic) and the weather was absolutely gorgeous for the setting for Filly Friday (plus one) for Breeders' Cup weekend 2009. We had fabulous seats (courtesy the NTRA...thank you) at about the 1/8th pole and I spent the day with Kevin from The Aspiring Horseplayer, who like me, was enjoying his first trip ever to the Great Race Place. My first love is Saratoga, but this place would give it a run for its money anyday. The purple and gold were rockin' throughout the Park and regardless of the betting results, there were smiles abound for the 37,000 plus that were on hand. Folks have been critical of the two consecutive years at OSA, but now I have a better appreciation why the powers that be wanted to have it here back to back. We ventured to and fro throughout the Park all day long, enjoying the sights and sounds of horsepeople digging in to the best weekend of the year. I tried to capture the day in pictures as best as I could, but nothing could do justice to enjoying the experience at Santa Anita. Pro Ride or not, the races were competitive and the crowd was into it all day long. The Tweeters Cup was fun (awesome buffet) and we met some nice folks along the way. We saw Ernie doin' his thang in the paddock and enjoyed sharing a few moments with him (Summah Bird baby). We didn't have a winning day (couple winners in the TBA contest in She Be Wild and Midday) but it didn't really matter....enjoying horse racing was the name of the game on Friday (guess that means I gotta get serious Saturday).

Here's a few photos from our glorious day in the sun...

Jimmy the Hat was in the house....dude it was a tad warm for the leather....

Laffit Pincay (racing's winningest jockey) at the Tweeters' Cup sayin' a few words...just sayin'

Tapitsfly taking over in the Juvenile Fillies Turf in the stretch drive....

Sara Louise (BC F&M Sprint) was a little rambunctious in the paddock but BC vlogger Ernie Munick was there to catch it all.....

The uber-classy Forever Together heading to the track from the paddock for the F&M Turf.

F&M Sprint winner Informed Decision in the paddock.

And they're off in the Ladies' Classic..Careless Jewel breaks out to the lead...

Careless Jewel running away on the backstretch (half in 45 and 3!)....not so fast says Life is Sweet....

Life is Sweet pulls away in the stretch to win the Classic de Ladies....Garret Gomez aboard!

That's all she wrote for Friday....good luck tomorrow everyone!

Welcome to La La Land

Tweet I figured I wasn't in Kansas anymore when the concierge said the Starbucks wasn't within walking distance since it was seven blocks away. Piece of cake, dude. Anyways, we navigated the six lane freeway last night in our red Ford Focus rental and arrived in Glendale for a nice dinner with an aspiring actress (my pal's daughter) who was way full of energy for two guys who had been on a plane for seven hours, including layovers. I also found out that reality TV (see: The Hills) is scripted (I knew it) -- man, the Space Gal is not going to be happy about this....

But today, it's go time at Santa Anita, which also happens to be my blog title over at the NTRA, where I've got up my final selections for your reading enjoyment (or not). I wasn't going to post any picks this year for the other races, but what else is there to do sitting on a plane for six or seven hours. There were also a couple guys from Buffalo who we chatted with who were also heading to the Cup, you can always pick out the horseplayers...

Remember the Breeders' Cup payouts can be huge (see here for a chart of last year's payouts by bet type):

So here are the picks with tons of in-depth analysis (ha, I've managed not to read anyone's analysis this year -- I'll read them after the races!):

Marathon: 1-Nite Light; 2-Man of Iron; 3-Father Time

Juvenile Turf: 1-Junia Tezia 2-Lillie Langtry; 3-Smart Seattle

Juvenile Fillies: Have no clue (let's just say I have a five horse box planned).....1-She Be Wild; 2-Negligee; 11-Always a Princess

F&M Turf: 1-Midday; 2-Forever Together; 3-Rutherienne

F&M Sprint: 1-Sara Louise; 7-Informed Decision; 3-Ventura

Ladies' Classic (Hugh Hefner Handicap): 1-Music Note; 2-Careless Jewel; 3-Rainbow View

Good luck everyone...may all your tickets be winners.

Westward Ho!

Tweet Off to sunny (smoggy?) Southern California today for the big weekend. To say that I'm a little excited would be an understatement. Excited for my first visit to Santa Anita, a track I've only witnessed on TVG, ESPN or TwinSpires TV. I can't wait to see the mountains in the background on my own, not to mention the sun (something that disappears in these parts for months at a time). I have to say I've been quite fortunate with my track visits this year from Keeneland to Churchill to Belmont to Saratoga to wrap it up at Santa Anita. (With my brother in law settling in Fort Lauderdale, it looks like Gulfstream is next up on the rotation in January).

So what am I looking forward to most?

- By far and away the backdrop of the San Gabriel mountains.
- Enjoying the weekend with a good friend and long time client. (Buckle your seat belt)
- Hangin' at Seabiscuit Court on Friday to check out the Tweeters Cup.
- The potential of hitting a big one (hey, I guy can dream)
- The Classic (even without Rachel and Sea The Stars) looks like a damn good horse race
- The Juvenile....is next year's Derby winner among us? (MTB was there last year!)
- Hearing live for the first time "And Away They Go"
- Seein' my boy (soon to be boys) from Obviously NY Stables and rooting on the NY-bred Canadian Ballet in the Turf Sprint
- Just being around people who love and live for racing.
- Seeing Zenyatta in the flesh.
- Winning the TBA handicapping challenge (just kidding) here's the link to the open contest.

I was at the Sabres game tonight (nice 3-0 win over the Isles) in a suite with the father of Jess Jackson's in-house counsel and he gave me a Curlin hat, so the weekend is already off to a great start. So, we'll be dormant in this space for a few days, look for a recap of the weekend Sunday or Monday so drop me a line or tweet....and don't forget to check out my NTRA blog for my Dirt Mile selections (hint: beat the chalk). And Away We Go.....

Capping the BC is a synch..Part Deux

Tweet We've had the calculator out this week to do a little data mining to help with our weekend investing. Last year we analyzed in a post for the Blood-horse how the Pro Ride was playing during the Oak Tree meet leading up to the Breeders' Cup Championships (did I miss a word there?). Since the results were pretty compelling last year we decided to see if anything popped after 24 days of racing (through last Friday 10/30) that could give us a hint of things to come over the coming weekend.

As we did last year we garnered the data from the official charts and looked at several factors: (a) how are the favorites faring; (b) what type of horse was winning: Wire to wire, Closer or Stalker; (c) cut the data between sprints (less than a mile) and routes (mile and longer) and: (d) post positions. We also compared the results to last year's data for reference. Items (a), (b) and (c) are shown in the chart below:


One telling statistic, is that during the 24 days (compared to 22 in 2008) there is almost one less starter in the gate during the meet at Oak Tree. Another item to note is that most of the races being run were sprints (70%). As a west coaster said to me one late night at Siro's during the Spa meet, they call it the "666" track....six starters going six furlong and the longest shot is 6-1. At the time I thought he was just kidding around, but jeez it seems to come to bear above.

So what did we learn? Favorites have been winning at a 38.5% clip, even higher in the sprint races. Also, it appears that stalkers (those horses second, third or fourth at 1st call) seem to winning at a much higher pace than closers in both the sprint and route races.

How about post positions. Last year we noted that the rail was pretty dead and the middle posts (particularly post #5) had a better win %. Here's what the 2009 OSA meet has yielded from the different posts:


This year the inside posts aren't as dead as they were in 2008, but the later post positions (6-9) have been fairly successful. Take a look at last year's post positions and where they were at first call of last year's Breeders' Cup champs on the Pro Ride:

F&M Sprint: Ventura, Post 12, First Call: 11 (Closer)
Juvenile Fillies: Stardom Bound, Post 10, First Call: 12 (Closer)
Ladies Classic: Zenyatta, Post 1, First Call: 8 (Closer)
Marathon: Muhannak (Ire), Post 5, First Call: 4 (Stalker)
Dirt Mile: Albertus Maximus, Post 7, First Call: 10 (Closer)
Juvenile: Midshipman, Post 11, First Call: 2 (Stalker)
Sprint: Midnight Lute, Post 4, First Call: 8 (Closer)
Classic: Raven's Pass, Post 8, First Call: 10 (Closer)

So in 6 of the 8 races last year, a Closer (and each of the six winners were 8th or worse at first call) won its respective Championship race. The outside posts also won the majority of the Pro Ride races also. The overall stats are very comparable to 2008 through the first 24 race dates, although the sprinters seem to favor closers more than the route races. Will this hold up again in 2009?