Good Crop, Bad Crop

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This is the time of the year after the first set of Derby preps where you'd typically start hearing what a bad crop of 3-year old colts we have to work with as we head towards the Kentucky Derby in Louisville in eight short weeks.

Personally, I think we have a pretty solid group of colts, wherein the top three finishers in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile are leading the charges in New York, Florida and California. With the final prep races still a few weeks away, I'm digging Union Rags as the horse to beat. Now the question is, can this crop of 3-year olds avoid the injuries that have plagued our sport before the big day. In just the last three years we've lost such hopefuls as Eskendereya, I Want Revenge, Uncle Mo, Premier Pegasus and that funny-named horse that was named after a grapefruit (The Pamplemousse).

I haven't started to do my homework yet, but in the next few weeks we'll have our Derby Space Sheet 3.0 up and running and the analysis will start. The Juvenile champ Hansen ran a big race in the Gotham last weekend, and points toward the Wood Memorial on April 7 at Aqueduct when racing returns to the main track at the Big A. Show finisher in the Juvenile, Creative Cause, made a nice wide move to move past a game Bodemeister (just can't get into that horse) in the stretch, to become California's top hope to challenge at Churchill.

A race you won't want to miss tomorrow is the Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream. The race features the fourth place finisher from that BC Juvenile race, Dullahan (2-1 ML), who looks to take the same route as Paddy O'Prado used to get to the Derby via the Palm Beach and the Blue Grass. The morning line favorite Howe Great (8-5) will challenge the Dale Romans-trained Dullahan in Race 7 tomorrow in Hallandale Beach.

I've been really sticking to a wagering strategy where I'm picking my spots this winter. I've been fortunate in playing only a race or two each weekend and not pissing away money on low level claimers or races that don't make any sense to wager on (like almost every race at Aqueduct where favorites are winning at an all-time record clip). I had a nice score at Santa Anita hitting a Pick 3 into the Big Cap for $355 on a measly $12 ticket thanks to Willyconker (IRE).

Only made one wager today, playing the Hard Spun colt Midnight Transfer across the board in the San Felipe. He finished third ($6.00 to show) and we broke even. He made a nice move to the inside of Bodemeister and I thought he was ready to explode like his sire used to, but he evened out on the rail in the stretch drive. Regardless, I was impressed by his effort at 12-1 (up from a 6-1 morning line).

Next weekend we have the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn, which should have a terrific field with hopefuls Secret Circle, Gemologist and Sabercat all pointing to this race. Time to start working on my Derby Dozen for Volume III of the Wireplayers tri-weekly poll.

Buckle your seat belts, this could be a fabulous year on the Triple Crown trail.

La Chica's a Mama

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If you've followed this blog in the past, you know that I have a soft spot for Bella Cavello Stables' La Chica Rica, a mare who won over $500K in earnings during her career as a sprinter.

On Wednesday evening, she gave birth to a Stephen Got Even colt at approximately 9:30pm on the East Aurora farm she calls home.

Congratulations to the Stable, Frank and Connie and the proud mama, La Chica Rica.  I'm looking forward to this colt's debut in 2014!

On the blog front, I've got a handicap up on the Risen Star over at The News' Sports, Ink blog and the Wireplayers' Derby Dozen, Volume II is up and posted, of which I am a contributing member.

There should be a number of posts up at ThoroFan's Handicappers' Corner this weekend, including the Risen Star, Rachel Alexandra and Sunday's big race at Gulfstream, the Fountain of Youth. If you're not already a member of ThoroFan, please consider joining here, the list of benefits is also located at the website.

Have a great weekend.

Captain Obvious goes in San Vicente

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Ok, so I really don't have a serious handicapping post for today, just this really funny picture that I've been saving up for the Derby trail debut of one, Captain Obvious.

He runs in the San Vicente tomorrow afternoon at Santa Anita against more highly regarded colts like Creative Cause and Drill, but that doesn't mean he's not the obvious long shot selection in here, does it?

For a serious look at the race check out Paul Mazur's handicap of the race for ThoroFan on the weekly Handicappers' Corner post.

In the "there's a goat in my timeline" department, it looks like there's a new horseplayer/fan site that's emerged (from the farm?) with the clever moniker of Goatzapper.  Looks like it'll be a fun site to visit and they were kind enough to feature my last post that casually mentioned Chantal Sutherland's tweeting habits. Appears that CRT has entered the lexicon for some of us and we can have some fun with it, although her ART (average RT per day) seems to be coming down since the post.

My weekly online column in The Buffalo News featured a few races from the weekend and the fact that the first online NHC qualifier is this weekend. Spent some time looking at the races last night. I spoke with a fellow Buffalonian (and beancounter!) who participated in the NHC at Treasure Island and he shared some great thoughts about the tournament as a whole. After a slow start he just started gunning for cap horses and eventually a couple of bad beats led to his demise. I've definitely taken a different approach to the online contests over the past few months, we'll see if the new strategy of looking for the big hits in any race where there's no obvious winner, makes a difference. I've decided not to worry about where I finish, if you're not in the top five, you may as well come in last.

Have a great weekend.

Around The Horn

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Time to take a spin around the horn, but first, whatever happened to Randall Tex Cobb?

We'll weave you in and out of some of my favorite and recent topics (horse racing and otherwise).....

Jeremy Lin. You've heard the puns over hundred times, but what this kid is doing to the NBA for the past five games is what legends are made of. Will he end up being the Mark "The Bird" Fidrych flash in the pan or will he become the next great thing in the NBA.  130 points in his first five games puts him in some lofty company, more than anyone in the modern era, and you can bet there are some legends in there.  My guess is he ends up somewhere in between, but man, you gotta love what he's doing in the short term. Sit back, stay up and watch, as it will make you suffer from Linsomnia, as you won't be able to keep your eyes off his cross-over.

Road to the Roses (aka RttR).  The annual Derby fantasy contest is open for business. I make the same mistakes every year picking horses that run on the same weekends, don't spread the wealth over the various races that you can accumulate points in, etc.  Why would this year be any different? Ok, maybe I'll bear down and get er done this year.

Luck. Been through two episodes and it has me interested so far. The difference is, I'm watching it as entertainment and not as an obsessed horse racing fan. The characters are interesting, there are some big name actors and a buzz outside of our little horse racing niche is talking about racing. In fact, one of my former partners called me to ask me to explain claiming races to him. I did my best, but also pointed him to the Hello Race Fans site that is helping out viewers who don't quite get the racing terminology. Like I said, I'm  watching from an entertainment point of view, a show in the old Sopranos time slot that just happens to be around a sport I love and understand the lingo. Bonus points. I'm going to keep watching and not let little things bother me about it.

Derby preps. I'm determined to find value in this year's prep races. Favorites rarely win these races as horses mature and can improve greatly over their 2-year old campaigns. We've already seen two heavy favorites in Hansen and Liaison go down this year. If there are races to stay away from the chalk and find a price horse, these are it.

Donn Day. Sloppy track, soft turf does not make a good Space bet. I'm glad I wagered little for this early in the season tyring to figure out a sloppy Gulfstream surface is not for me. The handicap division looks to be one that is Game On Dude's for the taking based on the efforts in Florida. I did have Hymn Book in my Pick Four (based on taking a second look after hearing Steve Byk rave about him), but that was about it for my day. I did much better wagering last weekend on the fast and firm surfaces. I need to learn to pick my spots on a sloppy day.

The Cuse. Making a special trek next week for the South Florida game and pretty excited to see the second-ranked Orange up close and personal. I'm especially excited to see the magic of Dion Waiters who is having a superb sophomore season and reminds me of a young Michael J (really). They are deep enough to make a run at the title, but they showed last night that they are fully capable of an off night. The good thing is they showed the resiliency to win when things weren't going their way while getting the Pitino monkey off their backs. A #1 seed sure would help the cause and hopefully they don't burn out in the Big East tourney, should they go deep into that one.

Chantal's Retweets. Speaking of Dion, the Syracuse twitterati have a running gag about Dion's obsessive (or excessive) re-tweeting after a game. Our timelines explode with twitter accounts we have never seen before -- all begging for the treasured Dion retweet. Well, we have our own little re-tweeter in the horse racing world, and she seems to love to RT every fan who shows her the love after a big race. Brace yourself, race twits, the Chantal RT is coming to a timeline near you.

Animal Kingdom. Hopefully he redeems the newly graduated 4-year old class who faltered badly in the Donn last weekend when he tries the turf in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes on Feb. 25. He's supposedly pointed at the $10M Dubai World Cup, so the racing world's eyes will be squarely focused on his upcoming effort in Tampa. He's never run on Tapeta, the Meydan surface, but turf horses seem to run well on it at nearby  Presque Isle Downs, so maybe he'll thrive on it. [UPDATE 2/15: Looks like AK is scheduled for an allowance race at GP this Saturday (2/18) on the turf at 1 1/16-miles]

My Super Sundays

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Warning: non-horse racing post, proceed at your own peril.

We're going off the board today to look back at my most memorable Super Sundays. I can only remember back to Super Bowl V when my then-beloved Colts took on the Cowboys at the Orange Bowl in Miami, so that's as far back as I can remember.

We'll take a chronological look at my most memorable games (the ones that have stayed with me all these years)....

1. Super Bowl V - Colts 16 Cowboys 13 (1971). As a huge Johnny Unitas fan, this one was a big one for an 8-year old kid. Unfortunately, it's the last time my favorite team won a Super Bowl (it's been a long 41 years). In 1986, I officially became a Bills fan coinciding with the Colts move from Baltimore and Jim Kelly's arrival in the B-Lo. Watched this one at my childhood friend and next door neighbor Jay's house, where we played Batman at halftime. Jay is now the Editor of Syracuse University magazine, who I will see in a few weeks before the Cuse-So Florida game. Oh yeah, a Jim O'Brien field goal won this one in the closing moments.

2. Super Bowl VIII - Dolphins 24 Vikings 7 (1975). Tommy Erving was having a Super Bowl birthday party complete with a super-awesome snow football game (tackle). How cool is that. We were outside for the entire first half, and we pretended we were the two teams playing in Houston at Rice Stadium. I think the Vikings actually won the snow game, and I think I was Chuck Foreman, but things are a little sketchy.

3. Super  Bowl XIII - Steelers 35 Cowboys 31 (1979). Another Orange Bowl game and you had Bradshaw and Staubach leading their respective squads. As a high school kid, this was one of the more competitive games through the first 13 Super Bowls, as most up to this point were boring blowouts. Lynn Swann was superb and the performance probably solidified his Hall of Fame nomination.

4. Super Bowl XVI - 49ers 26 Bengals 21 (1982). One of the better Super Bowls and watched in the Anderson Dorm TV room with my college friends. May be the first Super Bowl where alcohol was involved. One of the better games I remember vividly watching in the dorms, along with the 1982 North Carolina-Georgetown championship game (sitting next to Freddie Brown's high school teammate) and the Pearl's half court shot against BC on an ESPN Big Monday. I can only imagine if we would have been able to capture the conversations in that dorm common room during the game on Twitter.

5. Super Bowl XXIII. 49ers 20 Bengals 16 (1989). Montana magic at the end of a great Super Bowl, complete with a kickoff return touchdown and a classic drive culminated by John Taylor's catch in the end zone.

6. Super Bowl XXV. Giants 20 Bills 19 (1991). 19 points in 19 minutes of possession. Thurman's terrific game on the ground. Bruce's safety that could have turned the game if only Hostetler didn't hang onto the ball. Wide right. Watched at friends house in agony as the kick missed. Still haunting. The week before they played the perfect game using the no-huddle to befuddle the Raiders 51-3. That AFC Championship game was probably the best complete game I ever saw them play. Game of inches.

7. Super Bowl XXXI. Packers 35 Patriots 21 (1997). Day before my son AJ was born. Favre's first Super Bowl win, Desmond Howard's terrific return game. Mostly memorable because of the pending birth of my son.

8. Super Bowl XXXVI Patriots 20 Rams 17 (2002). Maybe one of the best and most competitive SB's ever with Brady vs. Warner (Greatest Team on Turf). The Superdome saw a terrific game and the start of a dynasty for Brady & Belicheck. Maybe the Best Super Bowl ever complete with 4th quarter drives by both teams and a game winning field goal as time expired.

9. Super Bowl XLII Giants 17 Patriots 14 (2008). 18-1. SU grad David Tyree with one of the greatest catches in Super Bowl history. Still can't figure out how Eli escaped that sack and was able to spot Tyree downfield. Denial of history. I think we had an awesome chip and dip appetizer that day also.

10. Super Bowl XLIII Steelers 27 Cardinals 24 (2009). The Space Kid arrived the day before and I held him for most of the game. The Space Gal is a long-time Steeler fan, so this one turned out pretty special for the family.

It's amazing how Super Bowls are remembered through the years, those are a few that came to mind today whether they were great games, included my hometown team or marked a family milestone. Hope we get a good game today. We'll return you to the regularly scheduled racing blog later this week.

Eyebrow Raisers

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Since I last checked in I've come across a couple eyebrow raisers that have peaked my interest.

The first one is a link from, of all places, a Buffalo Business First article that one of my tax partners forwarded me about a Toronto restaurant serving horsemeat and duck confit and calling it...wait for it....Quack 'n' Track. Really? I mean they can serve whatever they want, but it seems that the title of the dish is a bit over the top, no?

Here's a link to the Buffalo story and the Toronto Star article, complete with a picture. Man, I'm still scratching my head on the name of that dish. Do people have no sensabilities about them?

Next up is something that the Saratoga Resident passed my way about Governor Cuomo's proposed budget item that merges the NYS Lottery Division with the NYS Racing & Wagering Board (RWB). They do occupy the same building in Schenectady, so the consolidation of offices shouldn't be a big deal and I'm sure there is some duplication of work that can be eliminated.  I interviewed the RWB's Chairman Sabini last summer at Saratoga for The News, and I'm not sure he saw this one coming.

Here's the excerpt from the Governor's proposed budget:

"Merge the Division of the Lottery and the Racing and Wagering Board to provide a single entity for the overall coordination of gaming policy and regulation in New York State. The gaming industries constitute a vital sector of New York State’s overall economy, and their continued growth will contribute to economic development and job creation in this State. Gaming options both in and out of New York have expanded exponentially, but regulation of this sector remains mired in the 1960s."

The Assemblyman in charge of the State's racing committee tells the Saratogian that he supports the merger which would potentially create three separate divisions within the new agency. As the regulator for racing in NYS, you wonder if the larger money generating divisions will place racing further behind on the priority scale than they already are. It'll be interesting to see where this goes.

Space Tidbits

As far as what's been going on in my world, I'm an active pollster in the 3rd annual Wireplayers Derby Dozen poll which was released on Wednesday. I'm always happy when the proprietors use my commentary and I scored a couple comments in this year's initial poll. I was very excited to be invited back to contribute this year. The polls will be released every three weeks leading up to the Derby.

I had an article published in The News last weekend on the start of the Derby trail with some facts and figures on some of the key Derby preps...check it out here.

This Friday's online Post Time column was focused on the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct and Grade 2 Lewis at Santa Anita, both of which should generate some solid Derby contenders by the end of today.

Rooting for the Giants in the big game this weekend, the numbers 8 and 4 (if you know what I mean), and Andre Reed getting into the HOF. Really rooting for the numbers, though.  Have a Super weekend.

SpaceStitions & Other Stuff

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I was walking into my office the other day and realized that I my gait was causing me to step on every crack in the sidewalk. Pretty much have avoided that kind of situation for the past 48 years, but I couldn't stop myself. Something about breaking my mother's back...of course, she just broke her ankle, so there. (Get well quick to my biggest fan!)

Anyways it reminded me of my youth and some of the things I would do before a big basketball game in high school and/or college and the routine that I would always mimic. I guess you could say I've always been superstitious in a lot of different ways.

This got me to thinking...am I superstitious at the track? Do I have these same idiosyncrasies that I do in everyday life (park my car in same spot everyday, sidewalk crack avoidance, same seat in conference room, etc.)?  Let's examine some of my quirks...

1. Going to the Windows. I will not return to a window that I have lost at. I will return to a window I have won at.

2. I always bet an exacta in the first race.  It's kind of like warm-ups, if I plan on playing a whole card when on track. Not sure why I do this, but I'm pretty consistent with this scenario.

3. Last race group superfecta. Not sure this qualifies for superstition status, but whenever I'm with a group, we have to play the group $1 super.  Typically we'll each pick a horse and throw in $6/each if there's four of us or $8/each if it's a three top. We've hit it a couple times, the most for $1K, so I'm highly superstitious not to walk away.

4. Always tip the bathroom attendant guy/gal. It's good karma and there's usually a nice selection of candies.

5. Never count your chickens before they're hatched. Lots of stuff can happen in that final furlong. Don't call out your winner til he's crossed the line. Better yet, keep it to yourself and do the Ickey Shuffle in your head. Made this rookie mistake early on in my horseplayer career and it wasn't pretty. Sure to get a "Don't Do That" from the Saratoga Resident.

Those are a couple of my superstitions when at the track.

Other Stuff

You may have noticed that it's been a tad dormant around here over the past couple weeks. The Space Gal had some surgery around New Year's and is still recuperating so I've had Space Kids duty and my real job busy season has started too. Glad to report that the Space Gal is ok and recovering nicely.

On New Year's Eve between hospital visits I was a call-in guest on Capitol OTB's Loose on the Lead TV show with Equidaily's Seth Merrow and At The Races' Steve Byk. It was a lot of fun discussing the year end review, the Buffalo-Toga trip and some handicapping tips I posted on my year end TBN blog.

For the third consecutive year I will be part of the Wireplayers Derby Dozen panel. I really enjoy participating with this fun group of handicappers, fans and bloggers. They all love the sport so much and we have a good time doing it. You can see some past year's dozens on my left hand sidebar.

I posted some post-Eclipse thoughts on my Friday blog over in the TBN Sports, Ink blog.  My Eclipse predictions from earlier last week were pretty darn good if I must say so myself. Nailed a couple things: a) Jeannine Edwards would kill it as host; (b) Animal Kingdom would win the 3-year old male Eclipse by less than 10 votes (how about 3!); (c) Bill Mott would win his 3rd Trainer Eclipse and (d) Havre de Grace would take home Horse of the Year honors.  Not too shabby, Kreskin.

It's a new year, have you joined ThoroFan or renewed your ThoroFan membership?

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So do you have any racing superstitions or idiosyncrasies to share?