Unveiling the Derby Spreadsheet 8.0

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Dortmund holds off Firing Line in Robert B. Lewis
Photo Credit: Melanie Martines

That's Dortmund, one of the top thoroughbreds and ranked second on the Derby leaderboard in points holding off Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis back in February. Both colts are headed to Louisville to run for the roses on the First Saturday in May.

The 141st Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2, 2015 at Churchill Downs and if you want to get in on the Kentucky Derby online wagering action we recommend visiting Kentucky-Derby-Online-Betting.com for reviews of the best online racebooks for the first leg of the Triple Crown.

For analysis of the race, one of the tools I have put together over the past eight years is the annual Derby spreadsheet. The link, is located on the right sidebar and lists the top contenders of this year's Kentucky Derby, including such information as wins from post positions since 1970, Beyer Speed Figures (BSF), BrisNet sire and damsire average winning distances, dosage indices and pedigree information for every horse in the top 20 on the current leaderboard. Also, wet and distance Tomlinson figures as well as Bris distance figures are included on the spreadsheet.

We'll be continuously updating the sheet as new data is released and it is a tool I've used in the past to eliminate horses, in addition to who should be part of my Derby day wagering. It's also interesting to look back on prior year winners (2008-2013 tabs are included for the past seven years statistics for the winners and those that hit the board.

You'll notice some familiar trainers and currently in the top 22 horses, Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have nearly half of the projected field. 

Here's a snapshot of some of the top numbers within the sheet:

Top Beyer Speed Figure
1) Materiality (110)
2) Upstart (108)
3) Dortmund (106)
4) American Pharoah (105)

Top Distance Tomlinson
1) Mubtaahij (353)
2) Materiality (328)
3) Itsaknockout (315)
4) Bolo (307)

Top Distance BRIS
1) Carpe Diem (114)
1) Frosted  (114)
1) American Pharoah (114)
4) One Lucky Dane (113)

Top Wet Tomlinson
1) Danzig Moon (417)
2) Stanford (415)
2) Itsaknockout (415)
4) Frosted, Upstart (413)

Sire Average Winning Distance (AWD)
1) Mubtaahij (8.6)
2) Carpe Diem (8.3)
3) Itsaknockout (7.6)
4) Materiality (7.5)

Damsire AWD
1) Mubtaahij (8.8)
2) Danzig Moon (8.0)
3) Frosted (7.6)
3) War Story (7.6)

There are definitely some interesting statistics here that will warrant further research, especially on Itsaknockout, Danzig Moon and Materiality which had some eye opening information to consider.

Stay tuned and bookmark that spreadsheet!

Charts and Scientific Games

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Kentucky Derby 137 Chart by Race Position
(click on chart to enlarge)



I was messing around today and put together a quick chart to see who was making the biggest moves both forward and backward at the end of the race. It shows the chart positions at the six points of call during Saturday's Derby.  Interesting stuff, look at the late runs by Master of Hounds and Santiva to get to 5th and 6th respectively, both could prove dangerous on Belmont day. The pace wasn't right for Dialed In or Twice the Appeal who both show the hockey stick curvature upwards with their late moves.  



Speaking of statistics, a math guy got a hold of my spreadsheet and went all standard deviation on me.  While I was at the Derby I received an email and copy of my spreadsheet file with the following message:

"Here is my update of the excellent spreadsheet. I have attempted to analyze the speed data and post position data to come up with some kind of number reflecting speed, consistency and post position.

In the sheet I inserted a tab which shows the following, I took the three latest Beyer #’s and weighted them 100% for the most recent, 80 percent for the second and 60% for the third and divided by 3 to come up with a number. (Master of Hounds had two Timeform #’s. In my research it is the general rule to deduct 12-14 from the Timeform to equate to a Beyer, I took 15 just to be sure). Then I took the Standard Deviation of the three Beyer #’s to come up with a measure of consistency. Then I attempted to establish a Trend factor – that is, if the horse consistently improved speed over the last three races, it got a Trend of 3, if it ran slower in each succeeding race it got a 0, if it ran faster the last race but had run slower in the 2nd race from the first it got a 2.

So, if a horse has a 3 Trend, I added 25% of the Standard Deviation to the score, a 2 did not add the Standard Deviation and a score of 1 or 0 and I subtracted 25% of the Standard Deviation. This rewards for consistency of improvement and penalizes for a horse that has consistently ran slower.

Then, I took that score and added 25% of the Percentage in the Money from Post Position, to give a bonus for horses that have a statistically significant positive post position. That makes up my final number, Weighted Speed Consistency plus Post Bonus.

As Franie Bagodonuts (name changed to protect the innocent) reminded me, this ignores lots of factors you horse guys know and use, like impact of the poly track etc…but it is an attempt to use the data from the original spreadsheet to help make a decision about the horses in the race. I’d be interested in your comments or thoughts on any obvious flaws etc.  So, there you have it. Many thanks to Geno for the original spreadsheet and hope he doesn’t mind my tinkering with it."

So his final figures came up with the following ranking:
1 - Archarcharch
2 - Mucho Macho Man
3 - Nehro
4 - Twinspired
5 - Master of Hounds
10 - Animal Kingdom

Not too shabby actually, with three of the top five, and Archarcharch should be discounted because of his post draw, he was a real threat before drawing the rail. So no, I don't mind that you changed my spreadsheet and I may have you do a little math on it next year for kicks.  Hope you find it as interesting as I did.