Hello, Keeneland

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I've had this love-hate thing going with Keeneland for the better part of four years now. It's like that train wreck you can't just keep your eyes off of. Every time I try to turn and run away from playing that damn track, it lures me back in.

I have this Hello, Newman type relationship with KEE. The 50 cent Pick-3's are like a siren song to me, coaxing me into the deadly waters and coral reef off the coast of wherever those things are.

I know my ROI is about -300% here, but I just can't not play. I was pretending all week that it wasn't opening day on Friday, but I succumbed to the pressure and downloaded the PP's tonight. Oh, Bowman's Causeway (ran second by a nose in last year's $500K Prince of Wales at Fort Erie) is running in the 5th. Hey, Capt. Candyman Can is running in the 8th. Wow. Interesting. Yep, I've been sucked in again. Some interesting maiden races to boot. The Transylvania looks like a fun race, too. Looks like the office TV will be getting a workout tomorrow afternoon between the Masters and Keeneland.  Oh well, Keeneland, I'm coming for you (please don't hurt me too bad).

Speaking of Canada, I was asked by my good friend and colleague Keith McCalmont, of the Woodbine media staff, to be part of a Queen's Plate poll, where I went with Hard Not To Like in the top spot. She's a talented filly who ran fifth behind Stephanie's Kitten and Stopshoppingmaria in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but only three lengths behind the winners. She's yet to try the Woodbine poly, but I like her pedigree and she's faced some tough competition already. It's a long way 'til the Plate in June, though.

I thought last weekend's preps would hold to form with Union Rags and Mark Valeski, not that either ran a bad race, but the Derby trail always serves up a long shot winner (see Stately Victor & Exhi). It'll be interesting to see how Gemologist does for Pletcher and if Creative Cause continues to move forward on the west coast. I'll be rooting for My Adonis (I've developed a liking towards him) and Midnight Transfer (another I fancy).

I've put up the first draft of the Derby SpaceSheet for 2012 and the link is located on the right sidebar. It'll start to take better shape after this weekend's preps and we'll keep updating it up through the post draw, so keep checking back.

The blog quietly turned four on Monday (Apr. 2), thanks to all who read and support me.  Now, off to those KEE PP's.

Equinoctial Ramblings

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I'm one who likes to mark the passage of time or a play on numbers and dates here at the Space blog and today is no different. The autumnal equinox is upon us and when summer officially turns into fall you can count on a post that signals that championship racing is not far off...so let's get ready to ramble!

- The new NTRA social media chief seems to be making an impact. The tweets coming out @NTRA and the revamping of the NTRA Notebook are well, noteworthy. Check it out for yourself here.

- Is Super Saturday here yet?

- The Breeders' Cup wagering menu was released today and a new 50-cent Pick 5 was introduced on the first five races on both days. The 50-cent minimun will also be in place for trifectas, P-3's, P-4's and the new Pick 5 play.  A Ladies' Classic-Classic double will also be offered. Rolling Pick-3's throughout the card will continue to be the bet I most likely will be zoned in on.

- My next track invasion looks to be International Day up at Woodbine, really looking forward to a great day of turf racing up in Rexdale.

- Speaking of Canada, conditioner Mike dePaulo will be attempting to strike in the Grade 2 $1M Pennsylvania Derby with Pender Harbour, winner of the final two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown. Luis Contreras, who has been killing it at WO, will get the nod again on the 3-year old champ. His ML odds are 12-1, and I wouldn't count him out too quickly.

- Congrats to my fellow Buffalonian, The Turk and Little Turk, on his 3-year blog anniversary. The dude can flat out handicap and if spend some time reading his mantras and philosophies on playin' the ponies, you will come out of it much more knowledgeable then when you went in.

- I love Good n' Plentys, it's my candy of choice, especially when writing.

- Heading to Happy Valley this weekend, with a possible detour to Beaver Stadium for the Eastern Michigan game and my annual thrill of the scalp on College Avenue. The Toga Party champ has given me the green light with the appropriate chaperone.

- Nice to see the Kentucky Cup races return this year and not lose their graded status after not being run last year. Turfway Park will host five Cup races on Saturday, three of which are graded.

- Missing the Pats game this weekend due to the family trip, but will be tuned in on Sunday's ride back...check out this photo from the pre-game last weekend...not too shabby for a photo hack...

- Two weeks to Keeneland and the first Saturday of racing will be featured on NBC!

- My Friday News post is up at the Sports, Ink blog which discusses the new Fan Council created by the NYS Racing and Wagering Board and where to provide input for fan and horseplayer issues.

Have a great weekend and best of luck at the windows.

Hello Keeneland....

Tweet Keeneland and I have this love-hate relationship. The Lexington race track had gotten the better of me over the past few years. Not until this past spring meet did I even come close to generating a positive ROI (-.08). So I'm getting closer. I'm thinking this is the meet I exact revenge on the ghosts of Keeneland.


Tomorrow's opening day features two stakes races, the first being the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes, wherein Woodbine shipper Hollywood Hit (4-1 ML), who I was fortunate enough to see beat Fatal Bullet up north in May making the trip to see La Chica Rica try the poly for the first time. Oddly, I saw his next race while sitting at the bar on my initial trip to Finger Lakes telling the lad next to me there was no way he could lose. Yep, he lost...upset by Smokey Fire tiring during the final sixteenth (that race was 6 1/2 furlongs). Coming in second off the layoff, but sporting a new trainer. Another horse that intrigues me is SoCal shipper Canonize (also 4-1 ML) with Victor Espinoza aboard who comes in off a long layoff, but is showing a couple decent works leading up to this one. EZ Dreamer comes in off a race from Zia Park (that doesn't happen every day) and finished 3rd in this race last year. Of course, the heavy favorite should end up being Warrior's Reward (5-2 ML), the only Grade 1 winner in the field, running for the second time at the 6f distance.

The second graded stake on the card is the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades, a 1 1/16 mile jaunt on the polytrack for 2yo fillies. Wickedly Perfect (5-2 ML)is the morning line favorite for trainer Doug O'Neill, last seen beaten by Tell A Kelly (who lost last weekend at Hollywood Park)...Raf Bejarano is in to ride her. The other two horses who should be factors in this race, finished 1-2 last month at Arlington in a mile race. Jordy Y (4-1 ML) closed late to finish second, and I favor him over the winner Wonderlandbynight in this one going the extra sixteenth. Wayne Catalano looks like he's loaded for bear for this meet based on the entries I've seen so far.

Hello Keeneland. I'm coming for you.

The Terrible Twos

Tweet We turn two today at Camp EquiSpace and head into the Terrible Twos. We're still having a good time here in the interwebs, just wanted to say thanks to all who stop by for a chuckle or to be annoyed by me. Once in a while a blind squirrel finds a nut and that's what I'm all about, the search for that perfect nut.


I'm very appreciate to be a member of the TBA, it's really what made this small little dot on the world wide web visible to folks who love racing (and peeps other than the Space Gal or my immediate family). Mostly it's been great to meet a lot of you at the track during one of my visits or to interact with you over the past two years.

Special thanks to the Saratoga Resident for introducing me to this awesome sport and to the Space Gal who puts up with my shenanigans on a daily basis.


We'll be back to our regularly scheduled forum for bad handicapping, bad jokes and poor grammar tomorrow. Meanwhile, time to get kickin' on the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland or tomorrow's Fortune 6 carryover at Beulah (more on this in a future post).....thanks again for reading.

Keeneland Opener: Epitome of a 4 letter word

Tweet There's been a lot of talk about 4 letter words when it comes to synthetics lately...so the timing seems perfect for the opening day of Keeneland's spring meet on Friday on the polytrack. Ok, you're not going to get a whine session about how hard it is to handicap the synth at KEE from this part of the blogosphere....but if you look at the opening day's entries you'll see what I mean about 4 letter words....for instance...

Race 2: Hull (#4 horse, ML 2-1)
Last year's Derby Trial Stakes winner (I was there!) on Churchill's opening day makes his 2010 debut in a 6 furlong race taking on two tough foes in Taqurub (5/2) and Despite the Odds (5/2). Unraced since last June's Woody Stephens on Belmont Day, he's undefeated in Kentucky so our first 4 letter horse of day with Robby Albarado up is ready to roll.

Race 4: Inti (URU) (#2 horse, ML 10-1)
Not as inviting a selection, this Uruguayan 5 year may be overmatched going 1 1/16 on the polytrack, but he's been over this track before and has the speed to contend. We'll try and hit the board with our second 4 letter word.

Race 5: Toll (#1 horse, ML 4-1)
At 4-1 we won't be trying to Hit it Rich (5/2) on this one, but if I pull out my Secret File (6-1), maybe we can pull something off in the exotics in this one. Had some success on the poly in his maiden debut and Leparoux rode him. Won't be playing the 4 letter double.

Race 6: Doff (#1 horse, ML 15-1)
I love their beer. Heck, for a buck a 4 letter Pick 3? The trainer is 40% this year with first time starters (2 for 5 - full disclosure).

Race 8: Fish (#6 horse, ML 5-1)
Julien Leparoux up. Fish on Good Friday. C'mon if this isn't the 4 letter hunch play of the day, I'm a rock star. Broke maiden at Keeneland last year.

Race 9: Call Shot (#1 horse, ML 12-1)
Ok, I'm stretching it a bit...but back to back 4 letter words? Works for me....Think Babe Ruth pointing skyward...

Have fun, enjoy the card and refrain from using any 4 letter words...

My Dream BC Rotation

Tweet So as the anticipation builds (are you holding your breath?) for the Breeders' Cup Committee to release their rotation plan for the next few Cups (or maybe more), I am putting out there my dream rotation and in-depth reasons why. There is much debate on whether pre-setting the lineup makes sense or not. My dream plan rotates a synthetic track in every three to four years, rotates the larger venues more frequently, but adds a "boutique" track every four years also.

Of course 2010 is set in stone at Churchill Downs, so we'll start the dream rotation with 2011.

2011 - Belmont Park. It'll have been six years since the Big Sandy hosted. I remember it well being in Hilton Head on a golf trip in '05 with a few horseballs who skipped a back nine for the start of the Cup.

2012 - Del Mar. One of the "boutique" rotations, but also notching a synthetic track on the rotation. Warm weather, great facility, Southern California knows how to promote it....if they could pull this off it would be tremendous.

2013 - Churchill Downs. Why not? The facility is tremendous, they can pack 'em in and maybe the first ones under the lights? Plus it'll be the big 5-0 for me and a cool trip.

2014 - Aqueduct Racetrack. OK, stop laughing, it should take about 5 years to get the renovations done and since they'll have selected the winning bidder for the VLT's in 2012, it should be good to go in 2014. Hey, I guy can dream, no?

2015 - Keeneland. Let's give a brother a chance. Questions on the capacity and parking could be solved via temporary/infield seating and a shuttle service? It's a great facility and deserves to hold the Cup someday. Boutique/synthetic rotation works too.

2016 - Hialeah Park. Hot damn would that be great or what? Let it Ride, baby.

2017 - Belmont Park. The six year rule would kick in and bring it back to New York, New York.

2018 - Woodbine. Synthetic rotation and I'm only 90 minutes away which is why it had to make the rotation. May have to bring in some large space heaters. Back up plan: Santa Anita. 24 years is a long waiting period.

2019 - Gulfstream Park. Nice Florida weather, Halsey should have the place in ship shape and adding some additional seating on the stretch drive should do the trick. 20 year anniversary of the last GP Cup.

2020 - Santa Anita. Surreal setting, can't go longer than 10 years without a return visit. Great sightlines (20/20 get it?)

That's my ten year plan with some serious speculation regarding a couple of the venues...whaddya think?

Rocktober

Tweet This month rocks. Not just 'cause my Scorpio vibes are movin' and shakin'. We're talking Breeders' Cup prep races, college and pro football season rocking, playoff baseball jamming, the start of hockey season (we do actually have a team here), tailgating extraordinairre, and the President's Cup golf (U-S-A) to name a few things have my attention this month. It also marks the three quarter pole of the calendar year. I thought I'd check back at my wishing well from the start of the year and see how I'm doing with some of the things I wished for in December for 2009 (well we'll look at 9 of 10 anyways):


1. NY regulators take a page out of Tampa Bay Downs steward’s rulings and reports to provide the horseplayer and fans more information on inquiries and decisions.

This wish didn't quite come true during the first nine months of 2009 and I'm not holding my breath. (0 for 1)

2. A Kentucky horse-related trip in October for my birthday.

A very fun trip in April after tax season where we pulled off the Keeneland-Churchill double makes me pass wish #2. (1 for 2)

3. Spend some quality time at the Lothlorien Therapeutic Riding Center in nearby East Aurora.

Whoops, we haven't got out there yet, but there's still a few months left. The Space Clan did visit Old Friends during out Ky trip so we'll claim a 1/2 point here. (1 1/2 out of 3)

4. Buy into a horse partnership.

I invested in a small share of the recently deceased Higher Authority. While it wasn't the best first foray into ownership, I was informed at all times and will definitely consider investing in racing partnerships in the future. (2 1/2 out of 4)

5. Reevaluate where my investing strengths lie and try not to stray from them (i.e. exactas good; $0.10 superfectas bad).

About a third of my bets have been exactas and I've started to play more P3's and P4's. Out of my 646 wagers YTD, I've only made 8 superfecta plays. I'd say I've stayed with my strategy. My best ROI is W/P which I found interesting. I need to review this more often to see what's working. (3 1/2 out of 5)

6. A first time trip to the Big A, during the winter meet.

This is one I'd like to make happen, but it's probably doubtful due to my job heating up in the winter months. Not that I can't plan a business trip to the Big Apple.... (3 1/2 out of 6)

7. Attend my fourth Belmont Stakes in a row and actually see a triple crown coronation.

We can claim a 1/2 point here as we were fortunate enough to make it to see Summer Bird take the third leg of the triple crown. Part II will have to remain on the wish list. (4 out of 7)

8. Fort Erie Race Track is not closed forever. (I was just gettin’ to know ya.)

The track reopened (yay) but I've only had a chance to get over the border twice this summer and plan on getting over once more for my annual birthday at the track. (5 out of 8)

9. A visit to Woodbine for the Queen’s Plate to meet Triple Dead Heat, and continue my quest for a Canadian personal triple crown.

Scheduling issues (translation: trip to visit Space Gal's family) caused me to have to pass on this one, but it will move up the list. Will be working on a 1/2 point here as my current plans are to spend the day of the Bills-Jets Thursday night game in Toronto at WO and then head downtown to the SkyDome (Rogers Centre, whatever)..... (5 out of 9)

So we're batting .555 and we have a shot for another 1 1/2 points (AQU/WO).....not bad for a wish list, eh?

Really looking forward to the KEE fall meet, especially the $0.50 Pick Fours, which I believe have a pretty low takeout (19%). Looking forward to seeing Capt. Candyman Can in the Phoenix S. (G3) and Forever Together in the First Lady S. (G1) over the weekend. OSA has some great racing this weekend also, one allowance race that has caught my eye and has me excited has Mast Track and Space Man fave, The Bad Cat (El Gato Malo), both who may point to the Dirt Mile based on the results of this one. Speaking of the Dirt Mile, a new NTRA post has just gone up highlighting a potpourri of racing affecting the division this weekend.

Push 1 for Slots, Push 2 for Drug Bans..

Tweet I read the Prescription for Racing, a 37 page full color report, this past weekend. It is quite the document, I just can't figure out why they hid it in the Thoroughbred Daily News and make you sign up for a free 2 week subscription to obtain it. This is a document that should be front and center, if they are serious about it, not buried like it is now. I'm surprised it's getting very little mention other than in a few blog sites. The doc talks about a commissioner's office, takeout, number of tracks in use, illegal drugs, the effect of slots, etc. etc. It's interesting reading and contains some well-known names in the racing business like NTRA prexy Waldrop, NYRA prez Hayward, DRF's Crist, and Keeneland's Nicholson to name a few. I encourage you to check it out and read it cover to cover.

Not much racing on my calendar this past weekend due to being on the party circuit. Dinner party Friday night with the Space Gal's crew (the Space Smo's) where I did my best Eli Kirshstein impression with a shrimp remoulade appetizer to kill for (so I'm told). Saturday included blogging for the NTRA with my latest post on the BC Dirt Mile, topped off with a black tie gala in the Falls. Sunday included a lax tourney that my nephew from the 'Cuse was in town showing off his solid bloodlines and leaving it all on the field. We won't mention the Bills game which ended a very long weekend on a dour note.

The one race I did catch was that of Prince Dubai (who drifted up to 50-1) before donning the monkey suit, who was in a turf race at Belmont. While he finished fifth in the race, he had a troubled early trip, as he was checked sharply at the start, his jock lost the irons, but finished very (and I mean very) strong in the stretch only 2 lengths out ahead of last time out winner Tobruk. The Prince won his last out for Bona Venture Stables, and we'll keep an eye on this one who should get a better trip next time out.

Don't forget to check out the Rx for Racing transcript, you can dial up whatever topic you like....

The Keeneland Experience

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It was closing day at Keeneland's spring meet today and the Space gang was lucky enough to take in today's card. Case the Race says we're a little windy here on the blogfront, so I'll keep it short and sweet and share some of the day's pictures which tells a story all its own. I definitely have a new 2nd favorite track (the Spa will always be #1) as the hospitality shown by all of the Keeeneland staff and the tradition of the place shows through wherever you go. The ladies in Guest Services took care of the Space Gal and even gave her a room to feed and change the S-Kid, that's going out of your way.

Ironically, we don't know a soul in these parts, but we ran into our tour guide from Old Friends, Mercer, in Section E before the first race and ended up spending the day with him, which was very enjoyable. He took us down in the paddock for the 4th and we procured some nice pictures down in one of my favorite paddock areas.


The day started off on a great note with an opening trifecta after the ML favorite scratched, who we planned on keying over three horses, so we just boxed the three. We ended up the day at break even and just enjoyed the experience for what it was: a beautiful sunny, windy day at one of the country's best racetracks.



























Julien Leparoux getting ready to take the mount on Nickle Pickle in the 4th.

Edgar mounting Knack before the fourth.






















Kent Desermeaux up on Skim Scam, the winner of the 4th ($10.60) and third leg of my about to be blown apart Pick 4 ticket.





















Overheard in the paddock, bodyguard to NTRA Prexy "I heard that Space guy is here today, I'll punch him in the face if you want me to?"

Gate break in the 4th (see Trakus and straight view on jumbo tron - very cool)





















Auctioneer: "Do I hear $10,000 for the box at Keeneland?"





















Star power: 10yo Better Talk Now before the Elkhorn (G2)





















Grade I winner Champs Elysees before the big race.



























Calling it in: "Key the 2 (Woodford Girl) over the 3 and the 4." Space Kid: "Dad, don't forget the 5." Oh yeah, "and the 5" Race result: 2/3/5....you go Baby B. The kid was a champ all day long (thanks of course to the Space Gal). Not bad that his first track visit is Keeneland and his next is under the twin spires...sa-weet.

Tomorrow's invasion: Churchill Downs Opening Day!

Long Live the Queen

Tweet I haven't done much handicapping on here lately, so I figured tonight was as good a time as any as we sharpen up for the Breeders Cup in two weeks. The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) is on tap as the feature race tomorrow at Keeneland, with 11 entries going 1 1/8 miles over the turf course, with a purse of $500K. The PP's can be found here or here if you'd like to follow along at home. (I also was a fan of the rock group Queen as a young romping teenager, so this is a good one to jump in on.)

The ML favorite Ariege (#1, 3-1) comes off a solid performance in the Garden City (G1) finishing behind Backseat Rhythm (#8, 7-2) and Pure Clan. Bobby Frankel sends out this three year old filly by Doneraile Court (out of Kostroma*Ire) with Alan Garcia in the irons. Her GC performance came on the heels of three straight wins (two in graded stakes) and she is showing progressing Beyers, and is possible to progress further based on her form cycle. B-Rhythm has my favorite turf jockey, Javier Castellano, up for Patrick Reynolds (Big Brown's original trainer) and is the second choice, even though she defeated the ML favorite by three-quarters of a length in the Garden City. I figure to play these two in the top two spots in a trifecta wheel. The tough part is sorting out the others to play underneath.

I'll start with a longshot Sefroua (#2, 20-1 ML) who I will also put in the two and three holes. Kingmambo's are known to have a "solid grass influence" and she will be on Lasix for the first time. Two nice angles and a nice jockey-trainer combination of Motion-Dominguez puts her in a good slot. I'll also play a $2 win bet on her in case she wins and blows up my tri.

In the third hole, we'll add two more horses to the mix. We'll add My Princess Jess (#11, 9-2 ML), who also was in the GC race finishing a length behind Ariege and less than two behind B-Rhyth. She won the Lake George (G2) at the Spa this summer and has been solid over her career (8-4-3-0) and we'll keep her on the bottom of our tri. Finally, we'll add Magical Fantasy (#6, 8-1 ML), winner of the Del Mar Oaks (G1) last out with Alex solis on board shipping in from the west coast. MF ran mostly across the pond on synthetics in 2007, but has run four times on turf in California with increasing Beyers and six weeks rest.

So here we go, $1 trifecta: 1,8/1,2,8/1,2,6,8,11 cost: $12
and $2 win: 2

Good luck and have a terrific weekend.

Pawns

Tweet We are the consumer. But sometimes we are just pawns in a game of chicken. In Buffalo this weekend, an unfortunate situation has arisen and some (gasp) may be without the Bills game on the local CBS affiliate due to a squabble between Lin Television and Time-Warner Cable. Lin has even gone so far as trying to block Time-Warner from grabbing the local Rochester feed, so they can continue to hold the Bills game (and the rabid Bills market) hostage as a negotiation ploy (not bad, actually). Let's put this in perspective, the Bills get ratings in the 40's (Nielsen) when they are on the road, which is astronomical, and leads to nice advertising dough (locally and nationally). Now, this doesn't affect me as a DirecTV customer, but the SpaceGal reminded me of my plans to take the kids to a local establishment for pizza and wings after their swim meet to watch the game. Why is that important? Because every cable watching Bills fan will be out trying to find a place that is showing the game. Result: Mob scene in every sports bar/restaurant in town.

Anyways, if you've read this far (thanks mom) you're probably wondering what this has to do with horse racing. Last night I was surfing the net and turned my television to TVG and the nightcap at Santa Anita was on. Ahh, I think I'll make a little wager on race 8. I jumped into my twinspires account and learned that in order to wager on OSA, telephone only. Ugh. WTF. Same with Keeneland. I'm sure it has to do with the ADW issues and exclusivity. I'm not well versed in any of that, so I can't espouse any knowledge on the subject. I'll leave that to those in the know. All I know is I couldn't wager online and that sucked. I'm hoping I will be able to for the Breeders Cup, should my Casino Niagara plans fall through. I sent an email to customer service. Still waiting on a response. Yeah, I could suck it up and just use my phone or open another account, but it's a matter of convenience. I'm a customer who wants to wager, but is limited in my selection. This sport just can't help itself. Again I'm guessing, but I'm probably just a pawn or collateral damage of a fight happening between the horsemen and the race tracks.

What does this mean? Another trip to the Self-Appointed Fan Committee. Who are they, you inquire? Folks who listen to those who rant, complain or have ideas of how to fix our sport. Monthly they send reports summarizing the data to industry groups such as the NTRA, the Jockey Club, the Breeders' Cup and other racing organizations.

Roger Staubach once said about customer service: "There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." (Bet you were wondering what's up with the Roger Staubach picture)

Lately, it seems like customer service is a dead end.