Weekend Willies

Tweet I got hit by a few ladderballs yesterday (good thing we weren't playing jarts) and the annual family tournament was called on account of food, as this holiday weekend moves forward.

I teamed up with new TBA blogger Brian Appleton of the Railrunner blog for this week's post over at ThoroFan's Handicappers' Corner on tomorrow's Met Mile. Brian gives you his take on the race and I provide a little Bridgejumping 101 lesson plan. Check it out and come back and give us your thoughts.

Of course, the race is the next step for the speedy Quality Road (#2 BetAmerica.com Older Horse in the TBA Standings) and there will be a lot of interesting eyes on this $500K Grade 1 handicap. QR is carrying a highweight of 124 lbs. giving away some 7 - 10 lbs to his running foes.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend and Geranimo!

Jarting Around...

Tweet For those younger readers, you may have never played jarts, the lawn darts game outlawed by the National Product Safety Commission in 1988 (Canada followed a year later) was a favorite game of the family back in the day. Of course, it was dangerous as all get out, but I think that made it all the more fun. No one got killed at our family picnics and as long as you were paying attention your chance of getting hurt was slim. Why is this important? It's not. I was just thinking about that cool game that I wish we still had stashed somewhere. Of course, a quick spin on eBay, finds a set for $18.99, or a "Jarts don't kill people" tee shirt for $14.99. I think the fam will stick to ladderball this weekend.

So let's jart around the racing and sporting world and see what's making news or what we can make fun of....

- NYRA announced today a partnership with Betfair TVG to try and revive interest in the Triple Tiara, defined this year as the Acorn (Belmont Day), the Coaching Club American Oaks (early in the Spa meet) and the Alabama (weekend before the Travers). If a filly wins all three Grade 1 races, the owners get to pick a charity to donate a $50,000 bonus to. Sorry boys, no colts allowed.

- I wonder annually why Belmont and NYRA doesn't make the Friday before the Belmont a big racing day and highlight the Acorn, similar to Oaks Day and Black Eyed Susan Day. I guess Acorn Day just doesn't have the same ring to it. Unfortunately they lose my business every year as there's no reason to get there for a Friday card that doesn't have a string of stakes races...

- Or for that matter why isn't there a filly Triple Crown that mirrors the Triple Crown races (Oaks, BES, Acorn)...

- Can anyone challenge Quality Road this weekend in the Met Mile? I really wish he would have tried the Dirt Mile on Breeders Cup day last year instead of the disaster that ensued for the Classic.

- I've never been to the Indy 500 which rolls on Memorial Day weekend, it seems to have lost its luster over the years, no? I'd like to go some year (low level bucket list item)...

- Does anyone else think LeBron = Dr. J? Fabulous highlight film stuff, but no ring until someone like Mo Malone (fo-fo-fo) shows up? The King just quit on the Cavs. Not good.

- I was rooting for Lee. Dude could sing.

- Top Chef DC starts up in a couple weeks, gotta rev up the gambling pool. Breaking out a brand new Zoku for the kiddos this weekend, can't wait. Putting it in the Ice Box right now....

- My iPad showed up last week, it is very cool and I'm still messing around with it. The one downside is it doesn't play nice with Adobe Flash which kills my HRTV online, but there is a work around for TwinSpires using the mobile feature. It's great for surfing. Thanks again to my pals over at Horse Racing Nation.

Enough jarting around....stay safe and may all your tickets be winners this weekend.

Tale of Two (or Three) Tracks

Tweet I've read about a million posts on how great the Monmouth fields were this weekend and how it's going to change the racing landscape nationally. I admit (holding hand up in the air) that I played it all weekend based on the hype and the great fields etcetera, etcetera. But the accountant in me decided to dig into the opening weekend numbers to figure out what exactly transpired. For full disclosure I got my assed kicked all weekend, although I sniffed some huge horizontal payoffs with big starts to Pick 3's in Just a Coincidence and Top Two Notch Road only to be done in by horses I just didn't see coming. What's worse is I on Sunday I forecasted the correct singles in Jet Set Vinny and Ibboyee at decent odds, but got crushed at inoportune times in both plays. I think I called it a "bloodbath" at some point. The worst was on Saturday, where I played Congressional Page in the Knight Sky's cyberbucks contest (which ironically I placed second) and "forgot" to include him in my P3 only to be nosed out by him of a $350 P3 score. Oh well, that's why they call it gambling. I had fun nonetheless.

But delving into the numbers to see what happened versus the competition opened my eyes after the fact. At first I wanted to just compare MTH to Hollywood Park as I noted watching the twitterverse (and particularly the frustration of one, Mr. Hritz) that the difference in number of starters and the gate odds of the winner of each race was so small at HOL vs. MTH that it was worth analyzing on the blog. But as I was comparing the chalkfest that was Hollyrock this weekend, I wanted to see how ole' reliable Belmont Park was doing against the Monmouth hype machine......so take a look at this and draw your own conclusions....



Interesting that Belmont wasn't that far off the number of starters (8.4 on Sat), wherein MTH averaged close to 10 over the weekend compared to 7 at HOL. Sunday, not so much as the first four races at BEL only averaged 5 starters. Hollyrock was a disaster where the winner's could barely average 2-1 odds all weekend (open mouth, insert chalk). But when comparing the win odds at Belmont Park (with less starters) they held their own averaging between 6 and 7 to 1 versus 6.7-1 at MTH. It might have seemed like MTH had some big scores over the weekend, but Belmont had four double digit odds winners versus Monmouth's five over the entire weekend with less races. Of course, the proof is in the pudding and MTH had the benefit of opening weekned hype, so we'll see how long folks will play low level claimers running for big purses.

Switching gears, I was at a luncheon in Buffalo today with 500 strong and a big topic with anyone I ran into was the panic that Saratoga won't be open this summer due to NYRA's funding issues due to NYCOTB (the only bookmaker in America that can go bankrupt). Funny how rumors spread.....see ya at the Spa in a few months....

Stonewalled and Contest Saturday

Tweet Another farm has been sued by Fifth Third Bank after defaulting on over $14M in bank loans. The Midway, Kentucky based breeding operation Stonewall Stallions was taken by surprise by the filing in Fayette County Circuit Court. A spokesman for the farm said they were negotiating with the bank to turn over several bloodstock to the bank. The majority farm owner and her son have personally guaranteed the loans, also. So much for communication when dealing with banks these days. I see the same type of thing in my business, any technical default of a loan makes it fully susceptible to be called by the bank. According to the DRF, "the farm stands the 2005 champion turf male Leroidesanimaux, A. P. Warrior, Doneraile Court, Strong Contender, Unforgettable Max, and Value Plus in Kentucky. At its Florida division, Stonewall Farm Ocala, it also stands British Blue, Da Stoops, Frisco Star, It's No Joke, and Spellbinder; the Ocala farm recently pensioned Marquetry."

If you like free handicapping contests, plenty abound today. The Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore starts back up today. I made a pretty good run at this contest last year, was within strking distance of the Top 10 with 2 weeks left and had a lot of fun doing it. They provide free BRIS PP's for the daily contest races and I developed an understanding of the track biases and jockey colony. Equibase and TrackMaster have a contest running today on eight races at Arlington Park, which looks to have a couple nice turf races today. Finally, the Knight Sky Racing Blog offers two free contests this weekend for Jersey Shore bragging rights. The Decathlon Stakes (Saturday) and Spend a Buck (Sunday) are his featured weekend races.

Enjoy the weekend and party on, Wayne.

Underdog and One Classy Jock

Tweet I haven't been all that kind to Garret Gomez in this blog over the past two years and I'm feeling kinda sheepish about it today. I've gave him the business when he was 0 for Del Mar early in the 2008 meet last and I piled on his non-Triple Crown winning ways before last year's Derby, with the old "can't get the monkey off his back" cliche. Now don't get me wrong, I respect the hell outta one Garret Gomez and when a Form is in my hand I always take a look at his horse as being a factor (just cuz GG is aboard). He's currently the Dan Marino/Best player never to win a major/LeBron James of horse racing, who's never won the big one.

I read his post-Preakness blog yesterday and I immediately have newfound respect for him. He handled the blog with such grace and dignity that you just have to give it to the guy. He's had his problems over the years with substance abuse and whatnot, but he manned up and didn't bash anyone over his losing the Lucky mount, he praised fellow jock Martin Garcia and spoke about how he's taken him under his wing on the west coast and showed him the way financially and emotionally. Kudos Garret Gomez. You are one of the reasons I love this sport.

His luck in the big races reared its ugly head once again when his mount Dublin went all awry at the break. Part-time comedian Blonde Champagne continued her TC coverage happened to describe his Preakness gate break this way:

"Dublin breaks from Gate 12, sees a shiny object somewhere to the right of the Atlantic Ocean, and decides to check it out."

So Gomez' last few TC races have been ruined by a 50-1 shot (PioneeroftheNile), a filly with a purpose in last year's Preak (Rachel), drawing the #1 post with the Derby post time favorite (Lucky), and a bad break in the Preak (Dublin). So the jockey who is the top three every year on Eclipse Award night has an underdog in Dublin heading into the Belmont. Dublin is a horse I've liked, whose daddy (Afleet Alex) won the Belmont going away, and will probably be an underdog as the buzz grows for Zito's Ice Box and Romans' Dude. He was in my top four (I liked his stamina pedigree) in my Derby selections and is a big strapping horse. Can he be the one that gets Gomez off the schneid? I just may be betting on it. As we found out with Peyton Manning, John Elway and Michael Jordan even, the cream usually will rise to the top.

I like the underdog status he'll most likely earn over the next few weeks....

Checking in on 2010 Prognostications

Tweet Back in December I was trying to do my best impersonation of Kreskin and made a few 2010 prognostications on how certain things in the racing universe would play out. You all know how much I like lists, so let's step back in time and take a look at what I thought was going to happen and keep track via batting average....

1) 2010: The Year of the Dude. This one was pegged that colts would rule the racing landscape in 2010. So far so good on this one. And if you look at it literally, Game on Dude won the Lone Star Derby and First Dude just placed at the Preakness. Who knew? This one won't be decided until the Breeders' Cup Classic should Zenyatta pull off back to back victories. A victory by Devil May Care in the Belmont would help the ladies' cause, but I'm going to say I'm 1 for 1 to date and batting 1.000.

2) 2010: A Post-Time Favorite Wins the Derby. Ruh-roh Rastro. The second choice won the Derby as the post time favorite Lookin at Lucky finished 6th after a horrendous trip. 1 for 2, batting .500.

3) 2010: No Triple Crown Weather Issues. A wet Derby Day and a sloppy track ruined this prediction right off the bat. 1 for 3, batting .333.

4) 2010: A Sub Four Hour Trek to the Spa. Incomplete. The Spa opens in 67 days. Buckle your seat belts.

5) 2010: No Triple Crown Winner.....again. Thanks to Lucky this guess was right on the money. 2 for 4, batting .500. Until there's changes in the time between races (and possibly the distances) we may never see another one. I'm with D. Wayne on this one.

6) 2010: NTRA Accreditation % is Perfect. This one is a mortal lock to remain in tact. No failures to date and Pimlico receives full accreditation. Rockin' now...3 for 5, batting .600...take that, Ted Williams.

7) 2010: The National Pick 4 Returns. Biggest mistake ever to not keep this rolling. Would love to see the NTRA bring this back, guess they're busy writing letters to the Feds. Taking one in the shorts on this one, unfortunately, so we're 3 for 6, batting .500.

8) 2010: Rachel Alexandra Loses. Not once, but twice? Saw it coming a mile away, although it happened a little earlier than expected. Knocking it at 4 for 7 (getting calculator out), that's .571 for all of you scoring from home.

9) 2010: Lava Man and Brett Favre retire. Still no word on Lava Man who's still in Doug O'Neill's barn in California. I know Michael Blowen has been working diligently to get him to Old Friends in Kentucky. As far as part two goes, maybe I should have predicted who will be back sooner Handride or Favre? Going with an incomplete here.

So we're 4-3-2 to date, although #1 could go either way, not very Kreskin-like, even with a few softballs in there. We did have a nice Preakness Day and if we get a nice Belmont Day I'll have to consider majority rule on the Triple Crown weather issues. So I just need a fast trip to the Spa and Lava Man to stay off the track to rock a .667. Stay tuned.

Here's Lookin at you, Kid...

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Space Invasion: Pimlico Race Course. Preakness Day 2010. Young Martin Garcia fist pumped to the cheers of my section on the Clubhouse Turn on Saturday on his way to the winners' circle with the 2010 Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky. It was redemption for trainer Bob Baffert (no matter what this schmuck says) and a monumental day for the young jockey pulled from a delicatessen several years ago to ride horses for a living. It was an interesting day for the Space Man as we wandered through various sections of Pimlico (other than the infield) on its biggest day of the year.

I was somewhat disappointed when I arrived at my seats after coming straight from the airport with just a backpack for my 24 hour whirlwind tour. I was pretty much shut out from the grandstand and clubhouse and only had access to the clubhouse turn section and the infield with my ticket. Even worse, in typical fashion (my dumb ass quotient was pretty high), I failed to read the back of my ticket which clearly said NO BACKPACKS. Enter my sweet-talkin alter ego who convinced the stern faced security lady to let me keep it under my seat. Whew, disaster averted. I watched the first five races from my seats and then decided to wander out over to the infield. I did meet a lively (and very cool) crew of Delawareans sitting behind me who were very entertaining during my time in the Clubhouse reserved seats.

When I approached the grandstand security they were going to make me walk further than I wanted so I pulled a few strings and got myself into the grandstand/clubhouse and the apron box seats. I had nice visits with Steve from Wireplayers and the very dapper Frank from That's Amore Stables to watch a few of the stakes from the apron at the sixteenth pole. I then proceeded to head upstairs to see one of my clients who was having a Notre Dame reunion with some of his classmates and made it up to the grandstand boxes for races 10 and 11. So, a day that started with some unease and concern ended up being quite fantastic. We did ok at the windows through Race 10, but Strike the Deal blew up very live Pick 3 (had Taquarub and Lucky on the ends) and Pick 4 tickets and I blew the Preakness. Of course, that's why they call it gambling. Here's some photos and comments from my day of completing my personal triple crown....




















My view from the clubhouse turn and the first turf race of the day (Race 2) won by Virsito, one of my better picks of the day with Garret Gomez aboard. The tent on the right is the entrance to the Corporate Village for VIPs.




















Here comes the King, here comes the big number one......




















Gate break in the 7th, the James W. Murphy Stakes, a mile turf race won by Beau Choix (note the hard working usher)




















Calvin (and Rachel) were the reigning champs....





















This one will be filed next to my Big Brown Belmont Stakes souvenir. No back to back for Calvin....





















A view of the infield from the Grandstand box seats....





















First Dude takes the lead as they take the Clubhouse Turn at the Preakness!




















A very excited Martin Garcia being interviewed by NBC post race on the Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky!

That's a wrap from Baltimore! A good time was had by all...

Preakness 135: Twist and Shout

Tweet Well, looks like the drama over who I'm going to pick is over. I've been struggling all week with this group and haven't had much time to dive into the past performances to determine who I like until tonight. I'm going with the upset for a number of reasons. Mainly if you look back at the past 10 years, we're due for an upset (so #1 law of averages). Here is a chart that depicts the last 10 years' Preakness payouts for a $2 win bet, a $2 exacta, a $2 trifecta, a $1 superfecta and the $1 Pick Four ending with the Preakness. The pattern that is interesting is that we really haven't had too many bombs in the past 10 years who shocked the masses, but there has been some exotic crashers based on the exacta and trifecta payouts such as Macho Again (2008), Sweetnorthernsaint (2006), Scrappy T (2005), Midway Road (2003) and Magic Weisner (2002)



Secondly, I think that the Derby run over the sloppy Churchill strip last week favored only two or three horses who really had clean trips. This isn't the best indicator of form when analyzing at the race.

Lastly, I spent some time looking at pedigree. Over the last few years (especially the Belmont) when you look back after the race, the handicapping clue is usually hidden deep in the pedigree somewhere. I'm betting on this angle for Le Preak 135.

So here are my thoughts:

1 - Yawanna Twist (30-1 ML) Sounds like a reach, right. The lightly raced son of Yonaguska has placed twice in graded stakes (G3 - Gotham and G3 - Illinois Derby). I had a pretty good hunch in the Derby with Super Saver based on pedigree and I think this one could surprise us all and I'll be weaving him in and out of the top three spots. Wouldn't it be apropos for Edgar Prado to win his first Preakness four years after the Barbaro debacle? I saw him win his first Derby at my inaugural Derby, so could lightning strike twice in my inaugural Preakness? Yawanna's damsire Oliver's Twist was 2nd by a head in the 1995 Preakness, beating Derby winner Thunder Gulch and Tejano Run. Here's a look at his damsire's 1995 placing - a tremendous stretch run....



Yawanna dance?

2 - Super Saver (5-2 ML favorite) I'm not giving up on my boy, and in fact will be rooting for him to keep the Triple Crown hopes alive. He certainly wasn't taxed two weeks ago in the Derby having a dream trip, so I think he'll be fresh and ready to roll in Baltimore.

3 - Pleasant Prince (20-1 ML). If you toss his last two (muddy track in the Derby trial and poor synthetic effort at KEE) he was progressing nicely with increasing Beyers. Ice Box's performance flatters his Floriday Derby placing by a nose and he could be one of the ones that blows up the exotic numbers.

4 - Jackson Bend (12-1). Throw out his Derby and remove Eskendereya from his races and he's won a G1 and G2 and has progressing speed numbers. He seems to hit the board wherever he goes and I'm not going to let him beat me Saturday.

Who I've given up on:

Lookin at Lucky (3-1). Physically the last three races have had to take a toll on this horse. New rider and all. Lucky #7? I'm taking a stand against. If he beats me, he beats me. There's no doubt the colt has tremendous talent, but he must be tired.

Dublin (12-1). Really thought he was going to show up at Churchill, but he dudded in the stretch again. Gomez has the TC jinx. I'm staying away.

Caracortado (10-1). Cali buzz horse. Hasn't run since a compromised Santa Anita Derby trip. Not feeling it.

Who I'll dabble with in exotics:

Paddy O'Prado. Blew up my Derby tri even though I saw he was taking money, not again Paddy my boy.

Schoolyard Dreams. Best chance is hitting the board in third.

Well, Space Cadets, that's my take on Preakness 135, I'll be on the Clubhouse Turn taking in the card to complete my personal triple crown. So shake it up baby....and good luck to all!

Black Eyed Susan Day

Tweet It's the annual edition and rollout of our Susan Dey pic. I know, it's my inner 12 year old surfacing, but it always makes me laugh.

Getting ready to load the Space Shuttle on Saturday morning for my initial trek to Pimlico on a race day. I actually have been there before, 4 years ago, while visiting my cousin, spending an afternoon doing the simulcast thing at Old Hilltop. Noting the neighborhood on the drive in that day, needless to say I left a little early before the Belmont card was over to be sure to get back to civilization before dark. I'm going to give public transportation a shot (light rail from the airport to shuttle bus to Pimlico) to avoid any parking, driving or general intoxication issues. If anyone has any tips feel free to leave a comment.

Speaking of Black Eyed Susan Day, I wish I could have made it in early to see my pal Alan H, who noted to me yesterday it would be the fourth track we've met up at (we've already completed the NYRA trifecta), will have to get him to come east to do the Canadian double (Woodbine and Ft. Erie) one of these days.

Back here in the Empire State, the New York State Thoroughbred Breeding and Development Fund lost a good man this week as its Executive Director, Martin Kinsella resigned and the Board hired a TV reporter to fill the role he served for over ten years. That's Albany for ya. I've known him for several years and he knows his stuff and was a veteran executive who survived numerous administrations and is a top notch horse guy.

The Space Gal's gramma discreetly slipped me a twenty last weekend to place a Preakness bet for her. After surviving the pressure of giving her my Derby selection to win her nursing home pool, now I'm playing with her real money. Oi vey. She's called me every night this week to get my insight and tell me what she's read about the race. High comedy. Even Gertrude (fake name), her know-it-all nemesis, is asking her who I like. Make one lucky pick and everyone thinks you're an expert.

I briefly looked at the Black Eyed Susan this afternoon (first checking to make sure David Cassidy didn't have a horse in) and am favoring Harissa (5-1) for the win with Tyler Baze shipping in from the west coast. She handled the dirt in her first try at Sunland Park in March and has faced some decent competition (Evening Jewel, Crisp, Smart Seattle) so I'm looking for a big effort by the Afleet Alex filly on the Pimlico surface. I think she will hold off a heavily bet Tidal Pool (8/5 favorite), while Cindy Jones' No Such Word (7-2) and Ian Wilkes' Diva Delite (8-1) will round out the bottom half of the exotics. If the track comes up wet, I'll move Diva up a few notches. No Such Word has faced some decent competition in Blind Luck and shows a decent workout. Diva Delite has won her last 5 dirt races at Tampa and Calder before finishing 3rd to Fanny Freud in the Beaumont at KEE last month. If you like closers and you think someone will challenge Tidal to a hot pace, Seeking the Title (5-1) and Kent Desormeaux should be flying late (check out her running lines).

Enjoy Friday's BES Day and we'll have a Preakness post up tomorrow....

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

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"Sometimes you step in the mud and pull out a 20 dollar bill."

"Even a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut."

"In the land of the Blind, the one-eyed man is king."

"A man on a date wonders if he'll get lucky. The woman already knows."

"You can't expect to be a lucky dog, if you're always growling."

"Some days even my Family Guy lucky underpants don't even work."

You're probably wondering where I'm going with all these lucky quotes. Well, I received an awesome email on Friday from Travis Stone, co-founder of Horse Racing Nation (HRN), saying that I was the winner in the HRN Kentucky Derby iPad contest! Now I'm not the luckiest of souls out there, you can see from my profile that one of my hobbies is listed as "loser of office pools." So when I learned that my selection of Super Saver by 2 3/4 lengths held up in the contest and that I would soon be the owner of brand spankin' new iPad, needless to say I was pumped. The folks over at HRN, who have featured this blog in their "Best of the Blogs" section more than once, have a really cool site (fan interactive) and if you haven't visited it, you should. I most enjoy the horse wikis which feature race replays, results and pedigree information. I was actually over there on Derby eve searching out some colts when I spotted the contest....

Ok, you can let the comments begin on how I missed the winning margin by 1/4 length (he won by 2 1/2 lengths)....

Ahh Preak Out...

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I say bring on the drunken hoodlums. Boost attendance, potential fans down the road, loud music, yeah. Just don't barf on me, ok?

The Preakness marketing campaign is getting a lot of PR....good, bad and indifferent (see this blog) around the interwebs. I gave some thought to actually buying an infield ticket with the bottomless mug ($20 additional cost) and after that minute passed by, I decided a seat on the clubhouse turn was just fine, thank you. It's not that I don't like to party (I do), but I have a sneaky suspicion that much mayhem will be ensuing on said infield. What's funny is a lot of people I know my age have told me they've been to the Preakness (in the infield) and had a riot when they were younger and also had fun being at the track. Define riot? So, I dunno, double edged sword, I guess.

The weekend wagering focused on Churchill on Saturday. Where else can you hit three $0.50 Pick-3's in a row and clear $14. Can you say, chalkfest? I know, first you cash the ticket, then you complain about the amount. Not a bad way to spend five hours, in hindsight.

Saw that Hollywood Hit set the track record at Woodbine for 7 furlongs, waxing 2008 Canadian HoTY Fatal Bullet in the process. I was lucky enough to see his 2010 debut a few weeks ago in the Jacques Cartier while visiting my pal Triple Dead Heat. That cat is fast (Hollywood Hit, that is, not Keith).

Can't believe I gave up on Fly Down. In three volumes of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen I was the only one to rank him in the top 12, but dropped him out after the Florida Derby (when it was evident he wouldn't make the Derby gate). But do I play him on Saturday in the Dwyer? What do you think.....

By the way, who peed in Bill Christine's Cheerios?

The Preakness field is taking shape and it looks like it could be a full one (A Little Warm is apparently out and First Dude is in).

After enjoying some handicapping success playing a joint Oaks/Derby double with the master, I am thinking a BES/Preakness Double is in order. Considering the Borel double, I am (channeling inner Yoda voice).

Derby Winner's Preakness Odds in the '00s

Tweet I did a little unscientific research this morning as I was curious what a horse who went off at 8-1 odds in the Derby would potentially go off at in the Preakness. I limited my sample to the last ten Preakness' (2000-2009) and found some interesting results. Horse Racing Nation projects Super Saver (#1 OCD Pellets 3yo colt in the TBA Standings) to be at 5-2 when the gates open for the 135th running of the Preakness (presented by Crackberry this year?).



Based on what I see above, HRN's projection of 5-2 odds doesn't seem to be way out of line. The closest horse to Super Saver's Derby odds in the past ten years is Barbaro and he went off at 1-2, but his Derby performance was much more dominant than Super Saver's. It is interesting that both 50-1 Derby winners went off right around 6 to 7-1 in the Preakness and those in the 10 to 20-1 range went off between 2-1 and 3-1. I wouldn't be surprised if the field fills up to see Super Saver somewhere around 3-1 or 7-2 at post time. The winner has also come out of three posts twice over the last ten years: 4, 8 and 9 and no post inside the 4 hole.

Stay tuned.....

They're Baaack...

Tweet I noticed a link over at the Paulick Report the other day tucked away underneath the 3,000 Derby-related posts on horses, trainers, owners, breeders, ad nauseum about the Big Event. Congress is back knocking on horse racing's door. Letters were sent out last week by Senator Udall and Representative Whitfield, the congressmen on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce that has the responsibility for monitoring the industry and upholding the Interstate Horseracing Act.

You may remember two years ago in June 2008, hearings took place discussing the state of the industry, in particular, governance and horse safety. Integrity and horseplayer issues were largely ignored. The letters were directed to Waldrop at the NTRA, Phipps at the Jockey Club and Martin at RCI. It's comical that Congress keeps going back to the Barbaro and Eight Belles tragedies to lead into their questions of the industry. Funny, how they seem to show up always right around Triple Crown time.... At least, Waldrop can respond that he took measures and tell how great his Safety and Integrity Alliance is and how all the tracks (check that, the ones that participated) except Pimlico passed the rigorous independent testing to the Alliance Code of Standards. The RCI have established model rules and Racing and Medication Testing Consortium recommendations to protect horses and their riders. The Jockey Club....ummm....well Marzelli was the one adamant that horse racing can self regulate and didn't need central governance. Now Congress is back asking how they are doing with the "self regulation."

Responses are due back to Congress by May 14th....it'll be interesting to see if more hearings will result after the three respondents answer the questions posed in the letters (which can be found at the link above). The Clouseau in me thinks that is where Congress will go....

I wonder if Mr. Phipps thinks that....

Put A Fork In It: Derby Weekend Nuggets

Tweet Heard one of my favorite sayings this morning on my drive to the office and it made me chuckle: "In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is King."

Not sure it has anything to do with what we just experienced, but damn, that's funny. Speaking of funny, one of my annual visits post-Derby is to the Blonde Champagne site where the author posts a rather humorous live blog entry of the day's events, this year's edition is top shelf once again.

Oaks Day is one of the great racing days of the year. I remember experiencing it in 2006 for the first time and was overwhelmed by the experience. The nationally-televised Bravo telecast experienced positive numbers per The Street.com: "Last year, the Kentucky Oaks was broadcast on Bravo for the first time and the telecast saw an increase in the female portion of the viewing audience from 21 percent to 49 percent. This year's telecast featured exclusive, behind-the-scenes racing features, as well as the food, fashion and celebrity experience associated with Kentucky Oaks Day." The broadcast hasn't received the best reviews, but I agree with the R2 Collective perspective that the hardcore racing fan isn't the target audience: "The fly in that ointment is that we are not the market; we are going to watch it on Twinspires, or HRTV. This helps brand to a new audience." I imagine most peeps (horseplayers/fans) like me were at the kitchen table with the Form on our ADW account watching the odds (on the computer) and would watch the Bravo show starting with the post parade, when the fashion/food/celebrity stuff was long over and the racing was ready to roll (on HD!). I asked the Space Gal (cuz she watched and she has a MBA in Marketing) what she thought of the production and her reaction was that the gambling education piece was really "dumbed down." She thought they could have done a better job with projecting the atmosphere of Oaks Day with more random fashion interviews with people attending the event and more random shots of what people were wearing, etc. to capture the enormity and beauty of the event. Of course, she thought the survivor march was the best part of the telecast and what it's all about.

Are we ever going to have a better betting race than Saturday's Derby? It was amazing how close in odds these horses were on the tote board.

Mad props to my boy, Wack who posted the following in my friends and family blog: “With that said, my Derby exacta, will be Ice Box closing from waaay back and Super Saver, who has the pedigree to be close enough to the early lead and still hang at the wire.” I'm happy to report Wack and the Saratoga Resident nailed the tri together for a deuce - nice going!

Following up on my Exacta-ly post last week, tencentcielo chimed in with this yesterday: "The derby exacta name most (except you!) missed: The "Prevent Freezer Burn" exacta: Super Saver/Ice Box :-) " High comedy.

I'm looking forward to drinking one of these in 11 days for the first time...

Love him or hate him, Calvin Borel is now the face of racing. Out of the top 3 questions I received in the office today from the casual racing observer/employee (which is 95% of the office): 1 - How did you do? 2 - How about that Borel? and; 3 - Man, was that track a mess, or what?

The 25 cent Beulah Fortune 6 mandatory payout amounted to $3,750. Remnants from Saturday, Churchill's pick six carryover should exceed (queue Dr. Evil voice) one million dollars on Thursday.

If only Odysseus had made the gate and won the Derby, my one-eyed man Cycloptic reference would've been spot on....

Priceless

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Plane tix to BWI - $250






Hotel room - $125





Light Rail Day Pass - $3.50








Completing your personal triple crown?



PRICELESS.

The Space Shuttle is off to Baltimore.....

It's the Little Things...

Tweet Last name: Eva. First name: Bestderbyday.

That pretty much sums up my day. It was the usual Derby Day around the Space Station, kids running rampant, Tanner Jones (my dog) peeing on the floor due to the excitement in the air, cooked some dogs and sliders for the Space Clan. But what really made the day special was a phone call I received while I was in the middle of a Spic and Span moment (cleaning the floors before the throngs of family members showed up) from the Space Gal's gramma (Helen). Let me explain a few things about Helen. She and I have a special relationship. She only bets on things with me that she can win. She lives in western Pennsylvania and loves to bet with me against her beloved Steelers. She doesn't ever give me points, regardless of the spread, but she'll ask me for points even if the Stillers are underdogs. The end result is that I send her checks on a weekly basis. I'm a sport 'cuz I'm a good grandson-in-law and I love her granddaughter with all my heart. I love the ole' lady's spunk, actually. It has taken me years to gain her approval of me dating and eventually marrying her granddaughter....so here is how it went down...

Early this morning before the clan arrived, Helen (while I'm in mid-cleaning the floor mode) was in a tizzy. You see she lives in a nursing home with belligerent women who love to crush her at every opportunity. It's a cut-throat lifestyle and I've seen it first hand. Apparently there was a horseplayer amongst the 140+ that lives at Helen's nursing home named Gertrude (her name has been changed to protect the innocent) that was spouting about her pick in the OLG Manor Derby Pool. So I asked Helen, "Who does Gertrude like in the Derby?" She said "Gertrude thinks Sidney's Candy is going to win going away and no one in this nursing home is gonna beat her."

So now I'm faced with huge pressure, 'cuz you know what's coming next....I gotta give Gramma the Derby horse. I'm faced with beating a 90 year old blowhard who's pissed off my wife's Gramma. So Helen's telling me, "you know it's gonna be a muddy track, right? And I just can't take Gertrude for another year telling the whole nursing home how she picked the Derby winner again." This is a no-win situation for me. So I tell Helen two words..."Super Saver." It gets quiet on the other end of the phone for about 20 seconds....thinking maybe she's checked out on me, I say "Helen?" She retorts promptly, "Not Lucky?" I'm being had again by a senior citizen. I tell her...."Helen, stay with me here, I really like Super Saver and the only other horse that can beat him is Ice Box." She thanks me and says "I'm with you, Gene, and you better be right." Holy cannoli.

Fast forward ten hours. Helen is the queen of Our Lady of Gambling Manor. She just kicked some major nursing home butt. The phone call comes in. The Space Gal takes it and asks her if she took the Space Man's advice. Winner winner chicken dinner. Much joy in Mudville. Major nursing home beatdown. So basically....Helen > Gertrude. If someone was taking minutes, they would jot down, lots of laughter ensued in the Space Station.

It really didn't matter how much money I made today (!!!!!), I made an old lady's day with a Derby pick she'll never forget. I can't wait til next year's phone call...