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Friday, April 30, 2010

Mayday Mayday - Deluge in the Downs?

Luckily (no pun intended) that wasn't the theme song for today's wagering activities and we came out unscathed after a somewhat tedious start (see Rachel Alexandra single in P6 and multiple P3's). We righted the plane with a nice P3 sequence of Lou Brissie (Ky Juvenile)-Silver Timber (CD Turf Sprint)-Arson Squad (Alysheba), that put is in the black for the day, escaping barely. We're not exactly dancing around the may pole, but the ADW account came away unscathed and is loaded for bear tomorrow. Evening Jewel messed up my Oaks tri (and almost a number of other things), but it was an exciting race ending in a photo with the champion filly Blind Luck winning the head bob.

So I figured I would document this week's race of the week. It's that one they run every year in Louisville sponsored by the Colonel. Once again we have to deal what could be the Deluge in the Downs and a sloppy track for our sport's biggest two minutes of the year. I wasn't as good as I promised last week (going dark..yeah right) and the Knights of Columbus site just wasn't kicking it for me. I'm not exactly a handicapping guru, my last few Derby selections have been Afleet Alex (2005), Lawyer Ron (2006), Hard Spun (2007), Z Fortune (2008) and Friesan Fire (2009) last year. That's 0 for the 1st saturday in May for those scoring at home, so take these at face value. Here goes, from the man armed with the spreadsheet of doom.....

1. Super Saver. I dunno, can anyone really let Calvin beat you with on the rail in the slop. Of course this will be the year someone shuts him off on the rail (since I picked him). Law of averages is with Pletcher. High wet Tomlinson (412), Maria's Mon (his sire) has sired a Derby winner (Monarchos), has the A.P. Indy blood (damsire - can get the distance). Third off the layoff on the form cycle (love this angle). Sire has 18% mud winners in 864 off track starts and damsire 20% in 770 starts. While he didn't win a prep, he won here last year in the Ky Juvie and it's what you think they can do with the extra furlong that counts. So what's not to like? My apologies to the connections, but maybe I got one in me here.

2. Ice Box. Dead closer. Good work in the slop. The only thing that scares me is the inactivity (6 weeks) since his Florida Derby wire win. Jose Lezcano has beat me more times than any jockey in NY. You know what they say, "if you can't beat em..." Solid wet Tomlinson, hot pace could favor this one coming late to pick up the pieces, and decent mud pedigree stats (18% mud winners in 464 starts by sire, Pulpit). Pulpit finished 4th in the 1997 Derby even while suffering an injury during the race to his hind leg. Damsire Tabasco Cat finished sixth in the Derby and his dam, Spice Island was a Grade 2 winner. The Florida Derby winner has been solid last 10 years (Monarchos, Empire Maker, Barbaro, Big Brown, Quality Road). Including in my top four.

3. Lookin at Lucky. Convinced me in November at Oak Tree, in finishing second in the BC Juvie from the 13 post going 8 (yep, 8) wide around the first turn, that he is the real deal. Probably the best colt in the race. The rail has had only 1 winner in the last 40 years and the ITM% is only 13%. The ITM% is ranked tied for 15th out of all post positions in the last 40 years with only posts 6, 7, 11, 17 and 19 with worse percentages. Tons of pressure on Gomez, who hasn't exactly lit up the Classics in his career, but this colt is too good not to hit the board. Still including him in my top four on talent alone.

4. Dublin. He's really my Derby horse, but he's been on the Space Bubble all week in and out of my top four. I am on the D. Wayne bandwagon and would love to see him win here. Again, I looked at what I think he can do at 10 panels and I like everything but the post position (ironically he's right where Lawyer Ron was). I loved his daddy (Afleet Alex) who was good in the slop (and his progeny are starting off the same way - 25% winners in 44 starters). What can you say about his damsire, Mr. Prospector, that hasn't already been said, siring one winner of each of the Triple Crown races (Fusaichi Pegasus -2000 Derby, Tank's Prospect - 1985 Preakness and Conquistador Cielo - 1982 Belmont). A feat his grandson, Unbridled has also accomplished.

So I'll be using combinations of those four in my exotics and will include such horses as Awesome Act and Sidney's Candy underneath them. But as Mine That Bird showed us last year, anything can happen. Hopefully my ADW account won't be screaming Mayday around 6:28pm tomorrow evening. Good luck everyone, have a great May Day.


Keith-TripleDeadHeat said...

Good luck today Geno! Fill up that ADW account for your trip to the Queen's Plate!

We're quite close in our analysis. Mission and Dublin for me...and the latter could be sitting on a huge race.

See you online.

Ernie said...

YOU"RE A BAD MOTHER****ER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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