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Friday, May 7, 2010

Derby Winner's Preakness Odds in the '00s

I did a little unscientific research this morning as I was curious what a horse who went off at 8-1 odds in the Derby would potentially go off at in the Preakness. I limited my sample to the last ten Preakness' (2000-2009) and found some interesting results. Horse Racing Nation projects Super Saver (#1 OCD Pellets 3yo colt in the TBA Standings) to be at 5-2 when the gates open for the 135th running of the Preakness (presented by Crackberry this year?).



Based on what I see above, HRN's projection of 5-2 odds doesn't seem to be way out of line. The closest horse to Super Saver's Derby odds in the past ten years is Barbaro and he went off at 1-2, but his Derby performance was much more dominant than Super Saver's. It is interesting that both 50-1 Derby winners went off right around 6 to 7-1 in the Preakness and those in the 10 to 20-1 range went off between 2-1 and 3-1. I wouldn't be surprised if the field fills up to see Super Saver somewhere around 3-1 or 7-2 at post time. The winner has also come out of three posts twice over the last ten years: 4, 8 and 9 and no post inside the 4 hole.

Stay tuned.....

5 Comments:

Ernie said...

I'd be surprised, with all the Borel money, if you got 9-5.

I'm more curious to see who EquiSpace picks. Having been the only (I think) public handicapper to nail the Derby exacta, does he return to his hero or look elsewhere?

The_Knight_Sky said...

Two key point on Super Saver's odds:

His post position draw will have an effect. Should he draw outside and Mr. Borel can't get to the wood during the first part of the race, well I think the crowd will read into that. At least the experts who guide them will.

Secondly, is the field size. I think in every study one must include the number of rivals the horse is competing against to get a proper read on how strongly bet the horse was.

There is a big difference when a favorite goes off at 4/5 in a 6 horse field as opposed to a 12 horse field.

EquiSpace said...

E: Thanks and wait til you see tomorrow's post....

TKS: Agree totally on both and I have updated the chart for the # of starters (the average for the last ten years was 11 Preakness starters)....thanks for the assist.

Tony Bada Bing said...

No offense to Ernie, but I had the exacta on my blog as well and would have had the tri had I just repeated second-place choices and made them third place as well... but that's a coulda woulda shoulda...

EquiSpace said...

Way to go, Tony, and good call, I remember visiting your site and seeing you liked a lot of what I did. Thanks always for stopping by!

 

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