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I did a little unscientific research this morning as I was curious what a horse who went off at 8-1 odds in the Derby would potentially go off at in the Preakness. I limited my sample to the last ten Preakness' (2000-2009) and found some interesting results. Horse Racing Nation projects Super Saver (#1 OCD Pellets 3yo colt in the TBA Standings) to be at 5-2 when the gates open for the 135th running of the Preakness (presented by Crackberry this year?).
Based on what I see above, HRN's projection of 5-2 odds doesn't seem to be way out of line. The closest horse to Super Saver's Derby odds in the past ten years is Barbaro and he went off at 1-2, but his Derby performance was much more dominant than Super Saver's. It is interesting that both 50-1 Derby winners went off right around 6 to 7-1 in the Preakness and those in the 10 to 20-1 range went off between 2-1 and 3-1. I wouldn't be surprised if the field fills up to see Super Saver somewhere around 3-1 or 7-2 at post time. The winner has also come out of three posts twice over the last ten years: 4, 8 and 9 and no post inside the 4 hole.
Stay tuned.....
Friday, May 7, 2010
Derby Winner's Preakness Odds in the '00s
Posted by Gene Kershner at 8:01 AM
Labels: Barbaro, Horse Racing Nation, Preakness, Super Saver, TBA Standings
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5 Comments:
I'd be surprised, with all the Borel money, if you got 9-5.
I'm more curious to see who EquiSpace picks. Having been the only (I think) public handicapper to nail the Derby exacta, does he return to his hero or look elsewhere?
Two key point on Super Saver's odds:
His post position draw will have an effect. Should he draw outside and Mr. Borel can't get to the wood during the first part of the race, well I think the crowd will read into that. At least the experts who guide them will.
Secondly, is the field size. I think in every study one must include the number of rivals the horse is competing against to get a proper read on how strongly bet the horse was.
There is a big difference when a favorite goes off at 4/5 in a 6 horse field as opposed to a 12 horse field.
E: Thanks and wait til you see tomorrow's post....
TKS: Agree totally on both and I have updated the chart for the # of starters (the average for the last ten years was 11 Preakness starters)....thanks for the assist.
No offense to Ernie, but I had the exacta on my blog as well and would have had the tri had I just repeated second-place choices and made them third place as well... but that's a coulda woulda shoulda...
Way to go, Tony, and good call, I remember visiting your site and seeing you liked a lot of what I did. Thanks always for stopping by!
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