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Monday, May 17, 2010

Checking in on 2010 Prognostications

Back in December I was trying to do my best impersonation of Kreskin and made a few 2010 prognostications on how certain things in the racing universe would play out. You all know how much I like lists, so let's step back in time and take a look at what I thought was going to happen and keep track via batting average....

1) 2010: The Year of the Dude. This one was pegged that colts would rule the racing landscape in 2010. So far so good on this one. And if you look at it literally, Game on Dude won the Lone Star Derby and First Dude just placed at the Preakness. Who knew? This one won't be decided until the Breeders' Cup Classic should Zenyatta pull off back to back victories. A victory by Devil May Care in the Belmont would help the ladies' cause, but I'm going to say I'm 1 for 1 to date and batting 1.000.
2) 2010: A Post-Time Favorite Wins the Derby. Ruh-roh Rastro. The second choice won the Derby as the post time favorite Lookin at Lucky finished 6th after a horrendous trip. 1 for 2, batting .500.
3) 2010: No Triple Crown Weather Issues. A wet Derby Day and a sloppy track ruined this prediction right off the bat. 1 for 3, batting .333.
4) 2010: A Sub Four Hour Trek to the Spa. Incomplete. The Spa opens in 67 days. Buckle your seat belts.
5) 2010: No Triple Crown Winner.....again. Thanks to Lucky this guess was right on the money. 2 for 4, batting .500. Until there's changes in the time between races (and possibly the distances) we may never see another one. I'm with D. Wayne on this one.
6) 2010: NTRA Accreditation % is Perfect. This one is a mortal lock to remain in tact. No failures to date and Pimlico receives full accreditation. Rockin' now...3 for 5, batting .600...take that, Ted Williams.
7) 2010: The National Pick 4 Returns. Biggest mistake ever to not keep this rolling. Would love to see the NTRA bring this back, guess they're busy writing letters to the Feds. Taking one in the shorts on this one, unfortunately, so we're 3 for 6, batting .500.
8) 2010: Rachel Alexandra Loses. Not once, but twice? Saw it coming a mile away, although it happened a little earlier than expected. Knocking it at 4 for 7 (getting calculator out), that's .571 for all of you scoring from home.
9) 2010: Lava Man and Brett Favre retire. Still no word on Lava Man who's still in Doug O'Neill's barn in California. I know Michael Blowen has been working diligently to get him to Old Friends in Kentucky. As far as part two goes, maybe I should have predicted who will be back sooner Handride or Favre? Going with an incomplete here.
So we're 4-3-2 to date, although #1 could go either way, not very Kreskin-like, even with a few softballs in there. We did have a nice Preakness Day and if we get a nice Belmont Day I'll have to consider majority rule on the Triple Crown weather issues. So I just need a fast trip to the Spa and Lava Man to stay off the track to rock a .667. Stay tuned.


Anonymous said...

#5. It's was a 25 year drought between citation and secretariat.
And then 2 Triple Crown Winners back to back. D. Wayne is just a whiner.

#9. Lavaman is being used as a pony horse right now and is happy. They had Lavaman off the track for awhile and he was lethargic and depressed. So, until lavaman is ready to leave track life, Blowen is going to have to wait.

EquiSpace said...

Anon: I beg to differ (and that's ok) on #5 and D-Wayne. There's a reason it's 32 yrs and counting...
Thanks for the update on Lava Man, so I can almost chalk this one in the W column! Great to hear he is enjoying life as a pony horse.

Thanks for reading.

Ernie said...

"Kreskin is currently writing his thirteenth book, his long awaited and anticipated memoirs. Kreskin is also a voracious reader capable of consuming an average novel in less than 15 minutes with remarkable retention. In fact, in certain casinos, he is banned from the card tables, not, they say, because of his mind reading skills, but because of Kreskin’s ability to memorize four decks of cards at once!"

Ian said...

#4. There's going to be a meet at the Spa still?

The_Knight_Sky said...

Ruh-roh Rastro.

LOL I heard ya loud and clear.

Back atcha Tralfaz.

Anonymous said...

Brave call (and a good one) on Rachel Alexandra, I wouldn't have said it even if I had though it lol! (:

I disagree with D. Wayne Lukas when it comes to changing the times between the Triple Crown races. The Triple Crown wouldn't be the Triple Crown if they did that no matter what they called it. I believe there will be a Triple Crown champion within my lifetime. There's been more instances of horses winning two legs in the last decade than ever before.
Once the breed gets back to it's stamina and strength roots rather than just speed and sprinting a Triple Crown winner will be born.
Horses like Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Zenyatta and Lookin At Lucky(so far) are all recent examples to me that we're getting some better stamina-based, sound breeding accomplished.
I think Street Cry and Smart Strike are two of the best sires in the world right now because of their strong, fast and sound offspring.

EquiSpace said...

E: I remember the Amazing Kreskin all too well.

Ian: Yes. LOL. $17M "loan" approved.

TKS: Tralfaz, ole JP Gottrockets will never be the same.

Brian: Thanks for the comments. 1) You're younger than me, so you do have a better chance to see TC winner. 2) Wouldn't they be able to market the races (at least longer) if they went 1st Sat in May, Memorial Day weekend and 4th of July? Talk about equating each with a "holiday weekend" or long weekend other than the Derby so more people might travel to the event or make a home party out of it? 3) I think you hit it on head the breed....what are the chances that'll it'll "get back to its stamina" as you say? I say highly unlikely. Appreciate you chiming in with your thoughts!


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