Where Have You Gone Mr. Tomlinson?

Tweet One of my racetracker pals, Wack, emailed me today to ask the following: "Geno: Weather looks like crap down there for all weekend...how much stock do you put in the wet tomlinson? Is it now THEE most important factor or just one of many? Who does the slop benefit and who do ya take down a notch?"

The man was obviously spending some time with my spreadsheet and is on point wondering what does that statistic mean? Is it relevant to Saturday? Looking at weather.com, it looks like thunderstorms are possible, so the fact that the track might come up muddy or sloppy has to be a consideration so it makes sense to understand what that might mean.

So let's examine Wack's question....will the Tomlinson's be thee factor? In my opinion, it has to be considered, but it's not the only one. Where did the Tomlinson come from? They were the brainchild of Lee Tomlinson who decided that "after having one too many losing days at the track whenever the conditions was listed as sloppy or muddy, I realized that past performances on a fast track were often useless." What he did then, was grab 500-600 old DRF's and determined that pedigree could be a significant factor in how a horse ran on an off track, as well as on turf. After a couple more months of research, he determined that what he had uncovered was salable and "Mudders and Turfers" became a reality. As Dave Litfin wrote in "Expert Handicapping" the Tomlinson Ratings were born and "were based on the actual performances of all progeny of every sire, grandsire and broodmare sire. The ratings range from 0 to 480 (a perfect score)." Litfin went on to give some rules of thumb stating, "a rating of 320 or better merits further consideration on wet tracks."

So there is the background on the Tomlinson figs. You need to take them with a grain of salt. Note the phrase "merits further consideration" which implies it is just a factor. The BRIS reports give you the Mud Stats for both the sire and dam for starts on off tracks, another consideration for Saturday.

But for me, you also have to consider who has run well on an off track in real time. We all know that Friesen Fire nailed it in the Louisiana Derby seven weeks ago in the slop, that's evidence enough (a real past performance) for serious consideration (with a 104 beyer). His Wet Tomlinson is 446...there ya go.

So going back to Wack's question who merits consideration who doesn't? Looking at the Tomlinson's in my spreadsheet, here are those over 420: Nowhere to Hide (480), General Quarters (452), Join in the Dance (429), Dunkirk (427), and Flying Private (420). The other thing Litfin says is to look at the combined Wet and Distance Tomlinsons...the top five there are as follows: Nowhere to Hide (797), Regal Ransom (752), Atomic Rain (738), Friesen Fire (737) and Papa Clem (724). Interesting, as a couple horses are pretty much throw-outs (Atomic, Nowhere, Flying Private), but they show up based on pedigree to be solid based on combined distance and wet Tomlinsons.

What other factors should Wack consider? To me, speed always does well on wet tracks, and should hold up if Churchill comes up wet. Seeing Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom with high figures above doesn't surprise me and gives me even more confidence in Regal Ransom then I already had.

Who should we take down a notch if the track comes up sloppy? The only horse that came up short (318) that I considered as a serious contender is Chocolate Candy.....

The other tidbit that I learned during the Spa's opening day from my pal JB, was to always respect the outside posts as the middle of the track is not used as much (especially after 10 races with shorter fields) and can be better footing for those in the middle of the track (regardless of ground lost).

Just some more tidbits to obsess over.....

Why Racing Needs General Quarters To Win the Derby

Tweet Call me crazy. Tell me I'm grasping at straws. But come over here a minute and listen up. Do you hear it? It's the roar from the 100K strong at Belmont Park where General Quarters is rolling down the long sandy stretch to win the.....

I may be dreaming, but when I was fortunate enough to ask in the Bloodhorse Blog Stable, Why Can't Racing Generate America's Next Great Hero, that over 58 hearty commenters chimed in to agree to disagree that it would take a really special horse to command America's attention and return racing to the mainstream. We had several opportunities in the past few years with feel-good stories of Smarty and Funny and Alex, but there's a horse in the gate on Saturday that could really turn the tides and here's why:

1. The American Dream. Tom McCarthy is living it at age 75. The former school principal has one horse in his stable. One. Count him. Uno. Gives new meaning to one-trick pony.

2. Coolest initials. GQ baby. If he wins the derby, he'll be on the cover of GQ and SI. Stylin' with the cool kids in Gentlemen's Quarterly. He's our magazine horse.

3. Buzz factor. His story should be featured as the Bob Costas story, longshot, probably doesn't have a chance in hell horse, during the pre-race festivities. A Derby win, makes him a household name and generates more interest for the Preakness and Triple crown, with an intriguing story line that even your mom can love.

4. Rags to Riches story. He was claimed for $20K at Churchill Downs and now he's in the most famous race in the world at, ahem, Churchill Downs. Who won't love that story?

5. Reversal of Fortune. His sire, Sky Mesa scratched out of the 2003 Derby due to a bone bruise. His grandsire, Pulpit finished 4th in the 1997 Derby after having issues with a bone chip during the race. Even his great-grandsire, AP Indy, scratched the morning of the 1992 Derby. If GQ gets to the gate, half the battle has been fought. Who wouldn't want him to overcome those misfortunes running deep in his bloodlines?

6. Jockey En Fuego. Julien Leparoux is on fire. He's been eating them up all year long and he's a likable bloke, he can only add value to our potential new hero.

GQ had a horrendous trip in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3, 81 beyer), after winning the Sam F. Davis (G3) with a 102 Beyer. Major traffic troubles, steadied. He bounced back to win the Blue Grass (G1) on the poly at Keeneland three weeks ago earning a 95 (not a bad polybeyer - new word). His final three furlongs in the Blue Grass went at a blazing 35.85, the fastest of any prep race and his final 1/8 was the fourth best (11.94 secs). I'm not making a case for him to win, you can do that on your own.

I think he could be the horse that take racing to the next level. Just sayin'.

JB: Dialing It In

Tweet JB from smallbany is dialing in his Derby selections in tonight's guest post. I want to thank him for spending the time and filling in during the last few weeks of tax season while I was under the gun...he continues to share some of his handicapping prowess, sit back and take a quick Derbyism 101 course from my main man:

When it comes to trying to pick a winner in America's biggest race there are a many factors racetrackers from across the country must consider. Here are JB's top 10 Derbyisms for the 135th edition of the Run for the Roses:

Derbyism #1 - Consider only the fastest horses. Look at past performances on dirt with particular attention to triple digit beyer figures. Horses to watch: Friesan Fire (104), Dunkirk (108), I Want Revenge (113 and 103), West Side Bernie (101), Win Willy (102).

Derbyism #2 - Consider horses who have trained well, exceptionally well, over the Churchill surface. Mike Welsch of the DRF does a superb job watching horses hit the track and analyzing workouts. He is worth a read. Horses to watch: Friesan Fire (57.4 5F), Pioneerof the Nile (101 flat 5f easy).

Derbyism #3 - Consider horses peaking at the right time. Even if a colt didn't win his last prep, watch the replays. If you did in 2005 you would have seen a very game Giacomo run fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Horses to watch: Hold Me Back (2nd), Dunkirk (2nd), West Side Bernie (2nd), Chocolate Candy (2nd), Desert Party (2nd).

Derbyism #4 - Consider the size of previous fields horses have run in. Analyze whether they raced inside, outside or needed the lead. The Derby field is 20 horses. Some racers just don't like getting dirt kicked in their face, being covered up or waiting in the gate. Friesan Fire's Louisiana Derby and I Want Revenge's Wood stand out the most.

Derbyism #5 - Consider jockey changes. Jockeys tend to stay on horses who have it figured out. Trainers making jockey changes might be looking for something that isn't there.
Pioneerof the Nile (Gomez), Friesan Fire (Saez), Papa Clem (Bejarano), Hold Me Back (Desormeaux) all retained their mounts.

Derbyism #6 - Consider post position. For some horses it doesn't matter (see Big Brown) but for others (like Funny Cide) it can put them in a nice spot to run a big race. See Geno's spreadsheet for where winners have won from over the past 39 years and what posts have been ITM the most and which ones have been the dead positions on the board.

Derbyism #7 - Pace makes the race. This is more true this year than in past years, as there is little separating the top tier horses, and with a fast pace, the four second tier horses. Fractions like 23.4/5 +, 47. 2/5 +, favor I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Desert Party and Pioneerof the Nile. Faster pace helps Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, West Side Bernie and Win Willy. [EquiSpace comment: Check out Louisiana racecaller Travis Stone's pace analysis post which confirms JB's pace thoughts]

Derbyism #8 - Horses don't talk but trainers do. Dunkirk - Pletcher: "gives me my best chance to win my first Derby." Pioneerof the Nile - Baffert: "After watching [his last workout] I am confident he is going to show up and run the race of his life on Saturday." Friesan Fire - Jones: "if he wins the Derby we're in great shape for the Triple Crown."

Derbyism #9 - Consider horse maturity and experience. To win the Derby a horse must run his race, meaning he must break well, use tactical speed to get to where he wants to be, RELAX i.e., get his stride and breathing rhythm going without working too hard and start moving forward near the top of the stretch without having to change course or back off. Obviously, the jockey will have a lot to do with all of these things. Seasoned horses seem to do all these things best.

Derbyism #10 - Track condition or track bias that day. Churchill on the day of the 2007 Breeder's Cup was an inside biased track. Watch the races leading up to post. Is the track favoring speed or closers? Examine whether winners on the undercard make sense.

Derbyism #11 - Poly preps. Commenter FriarCat emailed and asked about California's Derby contenders running on dirt. This year, California horses' form has held up well when shipping and running on dirt. Papa Clem won the Arkansas Derby and I Want Revenge was a monster winning the Gotham and Wood in New York. Colonel John's performance in last year's Travers showed that a polytrack player with a dirt pedigree can win on dirt against top tier stakes competition Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) - Beat every California horse running in this year's Derby. Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway -- ran second to Tiznow on the BC Classic), Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow)

JB's Derby Picks
Top three
1. Friesan Fire - "With this horse we're following the steps of Hard Spun," Trainer Larry Jones. Fortunately there is no Street Sense in the race. Jockey Saez ran 2nd last year on Eight Belles. Larry Jones goes into retirement with a Derby champion.
2. Pioneerof the Nile - Baffert is a great trainer on his way to being inducted in the Horse Racing Hall of Fame this coming August in Saratoga. It's a pretty nice story. Pioneer's sire Empire Maker should have won in 2003, but for a foot injury that threw off his training. Gomez is the nation's hottest jockey.
3. Dunkirk - A victory by Dunkirk would be a surprise because he didn't race as a 2YO. He might be a freak, but I don't think he's as good as Curlin was at the same point in his 3YO campaign. His lack of seasoning in a 20 horse field makes him hard to love.

Next two
4. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance was visibly awesome. Maybe too awesome. Talamo has never ridden in the Derby. Mullins is not your typical derby trainer. He still hasn't beaten Pioneer of the Nile.
5. Desert Party - bin Suroor horses always seem to run really well in the big races. He had a solid final prep and looks to be sitting on a career performance. He is good enough to win it.

Outside chance
6. Chocolate Candy - A hot pace and Mike Smith bring him to the leaders at the 1/8th pole.
7. Hold Me Back - Liked the way he ran in his last prep. Kent will be picking off horses late. Plus Tug likes him.

Big surprise
8. Win Willy - Triple digit beyer on dirt beating Old Fashioned. Sired by Derby champion Monarchos.

Bigger surprise
9. West Side Bernie - Triple digit beyer in the Wood, but not sure if his pedigree holds up.

Biggest surprise
10. Mr. Hot Stuff - Eoin Harty is great. Tiznow was great. This horse is improving and under the radar.

So those are my picks for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby. Like many of you, I'll be glued to a TV set when the flag drops this Saturday. My version of the Space Gal is reminding me to remind you to "box it." I think I'll take her advice. [EquiSpace comment: Yeah she's the same gal that preached "gray skies, gray horse," back on the Spa's opening day last year, four grays won that day, so she knows what she's talkin' bout]

In closing, I like to think I handicap a little bit like Seve Ballesteros played golf -- with a lot of imagination, a little flair for the dramatic, an appreciation of being in the battle and most of all, a love of the game. Good luck everyone.

Cornering the Turn

Tweet Spreadsheet updated: Check

ADW Account Loaded for Bear: Check

Chips, Beer, Soda, Juleps Stocked: Check

Phone number for NTRA/Blogger Conference Call: Ummm....Huh?

Be ready for the Pimlico Safety & Integrity Alliance announcement next week. Sorry, couldn't help myself. Wonder if this morning's accident at Churchill could have been avoided by, ironically, the track that received the first Safety accreditation. Seemed to be a lot of concern on behalf of the trainers that were on hand.

So it's kinda ironic that our NASCAR neighbors grab the headlines for safety issues the week of the Kentucky Derby. Man, that crash looked hellacious and it's a good thing no fans got seriously hurt (as well as Carl Edwards). Let's hope they all come home safe this weekend so these folks don't get any more ammunition than they already have.

I'd be lying if I didn't say I'm disappointed that Wednesday's Derby Draw live on 4th Street won't be televised this year. While some may think it was boring television, I found it intriguing when Big Brown's connections were left with the 1, 19 and 20 posts to choose from last year. There was a little drama that was fun to watch and then hear the confidence of Rick Dutrow in saying the 20 post wouldn't be an issue for his horse. Anyways, I'm sure it didn't make any economic sense for ESPN or NBC to televise it (especially for an hour long show), but I'll miss it nonetheless.

CanGamble posted today (yes, I got past the Chantal picture) that Fort Erie won't be taking US dollar wagers this year at the windows, but they'll be happy to exchange your American dollars for a loonie or two. Wow, now that's customer service. I'll be using my ADW account, thank you very much. I found it to be extremely convenient to be able to bet in USD last summer, regardless of how much I was getting skewered via the exuberant exactor takeouts.

It's too bad that Quality Road had to scratch, I really feel for James Jerkens as the type of horse he had doesn't come around every year. I remember walking out of the Superdome after Syracuse lost to Indiana in 1987, thinking man it's hard to get this far and not win (and it took another 16 years to win it).

It goes to show you that Derby Future Wagers can be quite the risky endeavor, indeed. I have one Pool #3 exacta box with IWR, Chocolate Candy and Regal Ransom and one Pool #2 exacta box with Friesan Fire and all others, which ends up being with Regal Ransom, Square Eddie, Musket Man, Hold Me Back, Win Willy, Advice, Mine that Bird, Flying Private, Mr. Hot Stuff, Join in the Dance and Summer Bird. My only future win wager was in Pool #1, where I have Friesan Fire at 19-1, which is nice value considering he'll be around 7-1 on Derby Day, if not less. We'll start formulating exotics after the post draw on Wednesday. I don't know another US race where post positions come more into play than this one, so best to wait to see what gates they'll be in come Saturday. I also enjoy playing the Oaks/Derby double, which may not be as expensive due to the lack of challengers to Rachel Alexandra. I also understand there will be a Pick 3 featuring the Oaks/Woodford Reserve Turf/Derby wager available also that could offer better value than the aforementioned double.

Time to get busy.....we"re almost ready to turn the corner..

Under the Twin Spires

Tweet Our Kentucky trip concluded with a visit to the Twin Spires to complete the Keeneland-Churchill exacta (hat tip to Saratoga Spa) and enjoy the opening day of Churchill Downs' spring meet with the big days six and seven days away, respectively. There's nothing like Opening Day, whether it's baseball season, the first day of the Masters, the first NFL Sunday in September or the first day of a track's meet. I'll get to pull the opening day Churchill-Toga double this year, a proud accomplishment and a new notch in the belt.

It was a glorious day, a nice breeze blowing through the park all day long. We arrived a tad early from Lexington, so we decided to spend some time in the Kentucky Derby museum. Unfortunately we missed the Barbaro statue unveiling by a day. This was all we could see of the 1,500 lb statue:


Pretty sweet picture, huh? The museum (see building in background of awesome statue photo) had a very cool 15 minute movie in surround sound, with a ribbon-like screen that you could stand up and watch the different panels circling the room. We enjoyed our time spent in the museum which is jam packed with Derby artifacts, trivia and mementos. A special section on the current standing Derby champion, Big Brown was on display as well as a nice Barbaro tribute section. I enjoyed the jockey section the most and the whole experience was very educational and worth the $11.

I hadn't been to Churchill since Barbaro's Derby win in 2006, but the place is ginormous and brought back wonderful memories of a terrific weekend with the Saratoga Resident and crew. It was the Space Gal's first journey to Louisville and she was pretty overwhelmed with the size of the joint. We had awesome seats in Section 317H, right off the finish line in a box ($15!). You can imagine how much these will go for next week at the same time (A quick look at stubhub.com has them somewhere between $2-$4K). Mark Johnson was behind the mike and sounded great all day long (a little loud for the Space Kid's ears), I'm looking forward to his Derby call next Saturday.

We had a real nice view of the winner's circle and what I would give to be here next week at this time! The place was abuzz all day. Lots of talk of the morning workouts and the status of Quality Road and what will happen in the next few days.
The ushers and door folk were so nice and everyone in this part of the country just exudes hospitality and friendliness. I could get used to this someday. Don't believe what people tell you about the South, we actually were served faster in the restaurants we ate in down here versus New York. It won't ever replace Saratoga, but man, it wouldn't be a bad place to retire to.

I really didn't invest too much during the trip, I spent most of the time taking in the sights and sounds of the racetrack and loved watching the people come and go. I got down to the paddock a few times to listen to Jill Byrne's picks and watch them parade around the paddock. I hit one Pick 3 early in the day and other than that my day went into the red after losing on the anchor leg of a Pick 3 to my single, a 2/5 favorite Keep the Peace who tired in the stretch to second in the 9th race, after having a 5-1 and 2-1 in the first two legs.

Here's Cash Refund, a nice gelding who won his second straight career race facing winners for the first time. He faced some tough ones in the 8th, including Unbrided Express, who looked great in the paddock. He last won at Churchill in 2006 as a 2yo beating a horse named Street Sense when breaking his maiden. It was his second back after a 3 year layoff (?) and had finished 3rd in the Hopeful (G1) back in '06 behind Circular Quay and Scat Daddy. After being bet down to the favorite, he unfortunately finished eighth of nine.

The feature race of the day, the Derby Trial Stakes (G3) was won by the undefeated Hull and I'll leave you with some pictures from the paddock and at the finish line:

Dale Romans (trainer of Hull) and son in the paddock before the big race.

"Dad, can I have an ice cream?"


"After we win the race, son, you can have all the ice cream you want."


Nick Zito getting ready to check the feet of Santana Six before the post parade of the feature. Something didn't seem right about Santana Six in the paddock, they didn't go to the pre-set stall like the others for much time at all and Zito took him to the side. Didn't stop me from betting on him though. D'oh. Finished seventh of eight.

Hull ($8.80) is definitely a horse to be reckoned with. He's now won at the Fair Grounds, Turfway Park and Churchill Downs in three consecutive races. I'm hoping they give him a shot at the Preakness in three weeks, he was sired by Holy Bull (out of Band Queen) and he won easily yesterday by 4 lengths over a quality field. Second place finisher and lightly raced Kensei also looks like he could be a factor later this summer for Steve Asmussen.

Your 2009 Derby Trial Stakes winner, Hull striding to the finish line, no other horses in sight. (Also, note pole on left holding up speaker for effect).

Well, it was a nice way to end our spring Kentucky trip and time to head back north to the Space Station and get ready for Derby week and formulate some wagers for next Friday and Saturday. A return to bluegrass country can not come soon enough.

The Keeneland Experience

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It was closing day at Keeneland's spring meet today and the Space gang was lucky enough to take in today's card. Case the Race says we're a little windy here on the blogfront, so I'll keep it short and sweet and share some of the day's pictures which tells a story all its own. I definitely have a new 2nd favorite track (the Spa will always be #1) as the hospitality shown by all of the Keeeneland staff and the tradition of the place shows through wherever you go. The ladies in Guest Services took care of the Space Gal and even gave her a room to feed and change the S-Kid, that's going out of your way.

Ironically, we don't know a soul in these parts, but we ran into our tour guide from Old Friends, Mercer, in Section E before the first race and ended up spending the day with him, which was very enjoyable. He took us down in the paddock for the 4th and we procured some nice pictures down in one of my favorite paddock areas.


The day started off on a great note with an opening trifecta after the ML favorite scratched, who we planned on keying over three horses, so we just boxed the three. We ended up the day at break even and just enjoyed the experience for what it was: a beautiful sunny, windy day at one of the country's best racetracks.



























Julien Leparoux getting ready to take the mount on Nickle Pickle in the 4th.

Edgar mounting Knack before the fourth.






















Kent Desermeaux up on Skim Scam, the winner of the 4th ($10.60) and third leg of my about to be blown apart Pick 4 ticket.





















Overheard in the paddock, bodyguard to NTRA Prexy "I heard that Space guy is here today, I'll punch him in the face if you want me to?"

Gate break in the 4th (see Trakus and straight view on jumbo tron - very cool)





















Auctioneer: "Do I hear $10,000 for the box at Keeneland?"





















Star power: 10yo Better Talk Now before the Elkhorn (G2)





















Grade I winner Champs Elysees before the big race.



























Calling it in: "Key the 2 (Woodford Girl) over the 3 and the 4." Space Kid: "Dad, don't forget the 5." Oh yeah, "and the 5" Race result: 2/3/5....you go Baby B. The kid was a champ all day long (thanks of course to the Space Gal). Not bad that his first track visit is Keeneland and his next is under the twin spires...sa-weet.

Tomorrow's invasion: Churchill Downs Opening Day!

Space Invasion: Lexington

Tweet The Space Shuttle touched down in Lexington on Wednesday night after a long drive down Lake Erie then due south from Cleveland through Columbus and Cincinnati before hitting Bluegrass Country. Little did I know that the highlight of our trip would occur on the first day before we even hit Keeneland and Churchill Downs. I know Kentucky Derby hype is starting to hit a fever pitch, but I truly was touched by what my eyes saw today.

We arrived at Old Friends this morning for our tour and was looking forward to seeing some of the retired Thoroughbred champions (three former Eclipse winners are here) and enjoy the sunshine walking the paddocks with the Space Gal and Space Kid. I know other bloggers have been here and written great stories and I wasn’t even planning on writing more than a paragraph on our visit. And then they told us that one of Ernie Paragallo’s malnourished horses was arriving within the half hour. I didn’t know whether to be excited or scared. I had read on the Paulick Report website about the police raid and subsequent reports on how bad it was at the Paragallo farm. The van arrived and there were only a few of us huddled around awaiting the arrival of the unnamed five year old gelding. My heart was literally in my stomach. I explained the happenings to the Space Gal and told her to brace herself. The gelding, ribs exposed stepped down the walkway and you could tell right away he was in a better place. Executive Director Michael Blowen, a wonderful man dedicated to maintaining this retirement oasis for retired thoroughbreds, led him out and walked him in a circle. He was beaming and the horse is most definitely with some terrific caretakers.



















Here are his first few steps on the grounds of Old Friends! A better look at the former Paragallo gelding (unnamed). The folks at Old Friends are planning a special naming contest, keep an eye on their website.

After the relief of seeing the horse and knowing he was in such tremendous good hands, our tour guide, Mercer (great name) continued showing us some of the great champions that now call this wondrous place home.



















Here’s Fortunate Prospect, grandsire of Derby hopeful Musket Man. He won about a dozen stakes races, including the San Vicente, but his strength was in the breeding shed, where his 632 runners have won more than $38 million on the track.




















This is Wallace Station (which is also the name of the place where we had the best lunch ever) named after said restaurant, who was a talented race horse who was just retired this year.




















Space Gal’s favorite Special Ring with Popcorn Deelites (who co-starred in the Seabiscuit movie) enjoy a carrot or three.



























My favorite horse of the day was Awad, a former turf champion who won the Arlington Million, the Manhatten Handicap and the Secretariat Stakes. He also set the track record in winning the Sword Dancer in 1997. Me, I enjoyed the fact he could balance three carrots on a pole then slurp them up. Now that’s talent. Supposedly, former trainer David Donk’s answering machine states, “Hello you reached the house that Awad built.” High comedy indeed. He was awesome.



















The Wicked North, 1994 Eclipse Award winner was stabled due to a bad ankle, was probably the sweetest horse we encountered in our visit.

It was truly a special day at Old Friends, and as a member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, I was very proud that our dues, makes us a supporter of the farm and all of the good things they are doing. It shouldn’t be surprising that they stepped up to take on the Paragallo gelding. I am glad to be a small part of it.

Tomorrow’s invasion: Keeneland.

(Space Gal Post Script: I just want to thank Mercer again for a truly wonderful tour. I don’t know nearly as much about horses/horse racing as my husband, and he entertained all of my questions. THANK YOU! He also gave us the special “extended” tour up to see the mares. What a wonderful experience. The Space Kid slept through the entire tour, but I’m sure he’ll hear tales of his visit when he’s a little older. I highly encourage everyone reading this blog to donate to Old Friends. Throw a $100 on Special Ring or The Wicked North! They’re sweeties. Or even Creator… he’s “the man” and knows it)

Degrees of Separation

Tweet With a little help from a Railbird (who has collected some terrific data that's a must see) I've completed the early edition of my Derby spreadsheet and have posted it on the sidebar on the right under my profile for your viewing pleasure, it will be updated as the twists and turns continue and as information as to the final starters in the gate solidify.

So today's post deals with trying to separate the contenders with the pretenders and we'll give it a go, 11 days out from the big gig and put them in divisions the normal casual fan of pop culture can relate to:

The AMC Gremlin Division: My dad bought my mom an American Motors Corporation (AMC) Gremlin back in 1975 (or thereabouts) and it was a thing of beauty. Bright red, sleek gold stripes, the works. Problem was, it just wasn't fast. Surely it wasn't your average Ferrari or Corvette, for that matter. These are the horses that qualify for this division and are throw-outs:

- Mine That Bird: Slowest of the slow.

- Take the Points: If you're giving up points, you're definitely the underdog.

- Mr. Hot Stuff: West coaster for Eoin Harty, unsure how he'll take to the dirt.

- Flying Private: Maybe could make the AMC Pacer division.

- Advice: Pletcher's 2009 caboose, probably a turf horse down the road

The George Costanza Human Fund Divsion: These will be the horses that take in a lot of money and have a little hype, but will be unmasked in the Derby and will not hit the board.

- Win Willy: One big beyer will draw some money, not enough pace for this late closer.

- Desert Party: Garners Ramon for the ride, looking elsewhere.

- Hold Me Back: Again just not fast enough, but cut above the Gremlins.

- Square Eddie: Talented, but just not in shape yet...and will be running back in 2 weeks.

- Pioneerof the Nile: Taking a big stand against. If he beats me, he beats me.

Speaking of donating, we've got a fundraiser going at the TBA homepage (see widgets on right sidebar), please help us help the horses in need!

Ok, so we've cut the field in half and now it's time to figure out who can do some damage.

The Afleet Alex Division: Horses that won't win the Derby, but will have to be respected and could hit the board. Potential Classic winner down the road in Preakness or Belmont.

- Dunkirk: Lightly raced, huge talent, Prado on board, using him underneath in the exotics.

- Chocolate Candy: Liked his closing move in the SA Derby, only Cali horse I respect.

- Papa Clem: Versatile, dangerous. Bejarano hot jockey.

- Musket Man: His efforts looking better and better with time

- West Side Bernie: Probably one of the faster horses, but will peter out in the stretch.

The Rocky Balboa Division (post underdog status): These are the creme de le creme. Can you hear the theme song? The champs from Louisiana, New York, Florida, Dubai and Kentucky.

- Regal Ransom: This is just a gut feel, but watch his UAE Derby again, Garcia has a Classic under his belt and is ready to emerge.

- General Quarters: Hoping his feel-good story doesn't lower his odds as he could be a nice price. Watch the TB Derby over, his trip was horrendous and a throw out when analyzing.

- Friesan Fire: Only question is the 7 week layoff, but stranger things have happened in the last few runnings (BB from post 20, Barbaro off six weeks). If it's wet, look out.

- I Want Revenge: If the Pamplemousse was still in the mix, I would have had him in the Michael Vick Ankle Bracelet division with IWR. Talamo is still the wild card, racing in probably his first 20 horse field. He navigated the Wood to perfection, but this is different,

- Quality Road: If he overcomes the quarter crack issue, it's hard not to like his numbers.

That's how I'm seeing it 11 days out. We'll see where our guest blogger JB stands in the coming days for a special preview of the Run for the Roses.

Wanted to give a shoutout to Case the Race who left me a nice message on my last post and some kind words in the linked article. Next stop, Lexington. Stay tuned.

Wrist Slap

Tweet The New York State Racing and Wagering Board obviously didn't take any lessons from the nuns from my St. Rose of Lima (see knuckle scars). They handed out a measly seven day suspension to trainer Jeff Mullins in addition to a $2,500 fine. This is basically a slap on the wrist "as a result of his administering the medication Air Power to Gato Go Win prior that colt's scheduled start in the Grade 3 Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct on April 4." Sounds like they took a page out from the NCAA Sanctioning Committee on this one. Right when the industry can take a stand, and NTRA CEO bantering around about his Safety & INTEGRITY Alliance, this is the penalty that is doled out? Chicken change for a high powered trainer. Reduced from 15 days because of Mullins waived his right of appeal, it will be served starting the first Sunday in May, and will not deter a whole helluva lot from any of his training time of potential Derby favorite I Want Revenge. Basically it's like suspending a pitcher for a game when he's not pitching. Whatever. It's par for the course.

I watched the stakes races from Charles Town last night on my TwinSpires TV account and there were some great races to watch. I started with the sixth, as Western NY-based Bella Cavello Stables (and EquiSpace favorite) La Chica Rica was racing in a $55K Opequan Handicap and she fared very well finishing second behind Savethebestforlass with Gerald Almodovar riding his fourth winner of the night. It was nice seeing the big name jockeys like Prado, Johnny V, Castellano and Julien Leparoux showing up to ride for some big stakes money. Commentator petered out going around 3 turns in the Classic, which was won by my DRF Public Handicapper choice Researcher (and track record holder) who held off 27-1 Ea (dumbest name in racing) in the stretch to capture $600K. It was a fun watching the night races on the short track and seeing the big names at CT. No Big Chuck sightings, however.

Looks like Pletcher found his last place finisher yesterday in the Lexington, ironically, last year's Mr. Irrelevant, Monba, runs today at Keeneland in the Ben Ali Stakes. Nice call by Hank, by the way. (hey, I give props when props are deserved)

Gomez picks PoTN over Dunkirk. I think it's a big mistake. Speadsheet to follow.

With all the pirate stuff going on, I've been unusually quiet (as you all know my love of the pirate), but Space Gal informs me that the 2009 Northern California Pirate Festival is on tap in Vallejo, California in June, sounds like a hoot. If you're a twitterer, good laughs daily at Somali_Pirate. Know why the pirate couldn't get into the movie? Answer here.

Blogospheric Pressure

Tweet As a little kid, my mom always used to buy the Farmers' Almanac, so she knew what the weather was going to be like. I haven't looked at this since I was a little kid, so I checked to see if they had some info on Louisville, say around, the first week in May. Looks to be sunny and warm according to the Free two month outlook here. Good to know whether to dedicate any time to the Wet Tomlinsons...

Garret Gomez will announce his decision on Sunday for either Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk (holding breath) per his NTRA blog. I'm saying he goes with the Cali-based PoTN over Pletcher's, and also that it's a mistake if he does. Interesting how he compares both horses and trainer's styles in the post. Good reading, no mention of monkeys in the blog though.

Here's a shocker. The NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance announced the Keeneland accreditation today in Lexington. The article was a bit more descriptive about the rigor of the audit (wonder why they decided to do that?) and that it covered more than just a one day onsite visit. At least this time they actually conducted the review during an actual meet. Amazingly, the next two stops appear to be Pimlico and Belmont. Must be some big races coming up at these sites.

Looks like Mafaaz is going to drop out of the PDI next week, well unless Joe Drape continues to put him in his top five. You have to give his connections (Mafaaz' that is) credit for gracefully bowing out, and not taking up a spot in the Derby from Mr. Hot Stuff, Flying Private or whatever other 50-1 shot is looming out there. Check out the TBA's morning line prognosticators on the homepage.

Starting to gear up for next week's trip to Lexington and getting pretty excited about our first visit to Keeneland and a quick trip to Louisville for Churchill's opening day card and the Derby Trial Stakes. Any tips on what to see or do in Lex would be appreciated. Drop me a line or comment.

I've also started my 2009 Derby spreadsheet, which will share some interesting data all in one place. I did it last year and sent it over to the Saratoga Resident, who distributed to all his Albany buddies. Last week he emailed me saying he was asked about it in two separate meetings on the same day and just shook his head. It's in Excel, but I'll try and figure out how to post it in the Google Docs thingy on my sidebar.....halfway home....

Another TV Black Eye?

Tweet "Despite what you may hear or read, I feel that ESPN's commitment to Thoroughbred racing is as strong, if not stronger, than ever." ~ NTRA CEO's Blog, March 20, 2009

The commitment that just keeps on being broken. First it was Kentucky Oaks. The latest news is that that the WWL dropped the Preakness undercard on May 16th as well as Friday's "Black-Eyed Susan" Day on the 15th. Two cards I always enjoyed watching (in HD) and playing along. Now I'm not bashing the NTRA on this, as they don't control the Triple Crown series, the tracks do ("Triple Crown shoulder programming is handled not by the NTRA, but by the three tracks and their broadcast partners"), as astutely pointed out by the leader of our national trade group in the aforementioned blog.

So maybe it's time to dump college lacrosse-toting ESPN and find the right partner who is really committed to the sport and backs it up with more than words. We won't be missing Hank "Freezin' Fries" Goldberg, that's for sure. Confession: I would miss Randy Moss, however.

So what cable network would you want them to try? Versus (the former Outdoor Life Network) has been bantered around Twitterville - as they do an admirable job with NHL Hockey? How about Animal Planet - with their natural tie-in with the reality show, Jockeys? What if Bravo does a standup job with the Kentucky Oaks, could they be an interested party? How about USA network or TBS/TNT, both who have proven they can be an alternative to the nationals with baseball and basketball? Dare to dream, how about the NTRA Network? Maybe then they could bring back the NTRA National Pick 4 and televise all four races in their weekly broadcast and teach new fans how to play along.

I've posted a poll with these on the upper left sidebar, let me know what you think or if I missed a logical potential partner? Note: I did not include TVG/HRTV, both are picked up mainly on satellite systems...thinking cable TV here only.

Can Gomez Get The Monkey Off His Back?

Tweet After watching the thrilling charges of Phil and Tiger this afternoon and remembering back when Mickelson had not yet won a major, I started thinking to myself, what jockey currently holds the title of "best jockey to never win a classic?" Let's just say the caption to the inset would answer the question with the following: "This Guy!"

Johnny V got the monkey off his back (and his usual trainer Pletcher as well) at the 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches, a race where Gomez had a pretty decent shot with a horse named Hard Spun, that he would also ride for the last time. Similar to when Mickelson was the best golfer to not win a major, winning all kinds of regular PGA events, Gomez has a lot of other big stakes races under his belt.

He is the leading jockey in earnings for the past three years, as well as the Eclipse Award winning jockey for the last two years. He is the best jockey in the world, bar none. But. He hasn't won the big one. Sure, he's won something like eight Breeders' Cup races, but no classics. Zero. Is this the year? Does he feel pressure to win the Derby? He has a major decision to make in choosing his Derby horse, as it appears based on the latest graded earnings at the TT website, that Pletcher's Dunkirk should sneak in the back door. I am going to bet he stays on Pioneerof the Nile for Baffert, but both would give him the chance to win it. Wouldn't it be something if he picked the wrong horse and the other won?

He turned 37 on New Year's Day, so his opportunities dwindle with each year that passes. He's done everything else there is to do, he's won the Kentucky Oaks, the Travers, the Bluegrass Stakes, the Santa Anita Derby, the Goodwood and the Cigar Mile. Not a bad list of races. You can bet he wants to add a Classic to that list, though. Let's hope he get's it off his back, just like Phil.

Bluegrass Day

Tweet If you can't get excited about racing today...

With all of the bad stuff going on this past week, it will be nice to get back to the sport at hand this weekend.

Keeneland has a spectacular racing day covered with several great stakes races (and a guaranteed all stakes Pick 4) on the card. You can catch all the live racing from KEE, including the Bluegrass Stakes live on TVG today, which means I will not be shut out like I was last week. A rebroadcast will occur on ESPN2 with a live showing of the Arkansas Derby at 6pm EST.

The Bluegrass Stakes (free PPs here) looks like a wide-open affair with any of four or five horses that has the ability to win this one. I'm alive in the Maker's Mark/Bluegrass double to Join in the Dance, Terrain, Charitable Man and Lane's End winner Hold Me Back, so I don't have to tell you who I like. Speaking of yesterday's Maker's Mark, I thought Kent Desormeaux's stretch ride on Keeneland's yielding turf course on Mr. Sidney was fantastic in holding off a game Passager and Edgar Prado, watch it if you get the opportunity. Back to the Bluegrass, I think JitD (Pletcher going for his third BG in five years and second in a row) will have some nice value and both Terrain (can handle the synth) and CM (long layoff, love the jock-trainer combo) intrigue me. Who scares me the most in the is one? Theregoesjojo has the biggest speed figure, is desparate for graded stakes winnings and has faced Quality competition over his last three races (yuk yuk). I'm not playing him as he is coming back after a hard ride two weeks ago at Gulfstream.


Notable winners of the Bluegrass include Spectacular Bid, Strike the Gold, Peace Rules and record holder Skip Away (1:47.20).


The Arkansas Derby (free PP's here) will be a redeeming one for Old Fashioned. I think an exacta box with fashionable pick Papa Clem could be in order for this one. I don't think OF will get caught in a speed duel in this one (lessons learned - see Ramon Dominguez in NY today) and should have enough in the tank this week to win outright. I'm not sold on Win Willy, the Rebel set up perfectly for his late running style and don't think he'll get that scenario later today.
A follow-up to Thursday's post on Churchill's fast-tracked accreditation, the CEO of the NTRA was interviewed on TVG yesterday afternoon by Jill Byrne (wish she would have asked him how they could pass muster with a one day on-site visit during a dark period). Again, I think the Code itself is great, but what happens to those tracks that aren't accredited, what's the downside? If it's not a rigorously-tested requirement, then what does it prove? Can you really verify all of the conditions that were in the "48 page application" with a one or two day visit? I'm sure we'll be hearing that Keeneland will be accredited in the next week or two (certainly before the Derby). I don't think I'm the only one scratching his/her head. Just trying to put things in perspective...

This week's "buycott" race is at Mountaineer (a track I follow occasionally) where a perfecta (exacta) is in order.

I'll also be keeping my eye on Laurel Park, where a good friend has a filly named Imalexus running in the 9th. Best of luck!

Timing is Everything...

Tweet It's the skeptic in me, I promise. Granted, I do have some pretty good instincts when it comes to things like accreditation, based on my 23 years of being an auditor and participating in certification of standards. The big announcement came down today from the hallowed halls of Lexington's finest trade group that Churchill Downs has received FULL accreditation from the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance. Now, first, let me go on record to state that I think that the Code of Standards ("the Code") they have put together, and first circulated to the member tracks seeking accreditation on February 25th of this year, is an EXCELLENT document and that the end result is one worth striving for and the Code itself is a positive step for the safety of the racehorse.

BUT, wait for it, here it comes....

I just don't buy that CD could become FULLY accredited in less than two months. Let alone before their spring meet even takes place. This smells of wanting the timing of the release to coincide with the runup to the Derby when the sport is on the front burner....but that's just me. Being someone who has certified companies to a rigorous standard (and one that was newly designed), I can tell you that Rome doesn't get built in a day (or two months for that matter). Of course, the definition in the Code for full accreditation is that Members must satisfy "substantially all conditions.....provided Member continues to adhere to Alliance standards during that time period." The key word in that definition being substantially, which does not constitute ALL. It begs the question, "Were ALL of the conditions met, or were substantially all the conditions met?

I was actually surprised to hear that CD achieved full, and would have expected "provisional" or "probationary" accreditation (as defined on page 4 of the Code) wherein certain future implementation or a curing of deficiencies would be necessary. If the accreditation was truly a rigorous audit, I would think some findings or deficiencies would have been noted, of course this wouldn't have made such a public relations splash. Some of the conditions (yeah, i read the doc) require reporting, and CD has not conducted a meeting since the Standards were released, so I wonder how they could prospectively test for compliance? For example, Standard 1A states that upon adoption of this Code, Member shall immediately commence reporting injuries sustained and fatalities suffered at a Racetrack Members' racetrack(s) during any Race Day. Are they retroactively testing for the these items? I would think this would put you in a provisional category, pending the CD spring meet reporting requirements? You?

They call former Governor Thompson, an independent monitor, but is he really independent when he works for the NTRA? I do commend them for using non-NTRA personnel such as Jennifer Durenberger, DVM and racing official Richard J. Lewis to conduct part of the review, I assume neither has a dog in the hunt.

Typically when testing for compliance to a standard you have two main thrusts to test. One being approach and the other being deployment. Approach is typically defined as the processes, practices and procedures used to meet a standard. This, I would think could be easily audited and/or tested and I would venture to guess are in place at Churchill. Deployment is how extensively these approaches are used or implemented in practice. This is where I question how they could grant full accreditation when the spring meet commences on April 25th. Could they actually be testing data prior to the actual adoption of the Code in February? Seems odd to me.

I sure would love to get my hands on the report, it would probably answer a lot of the questions posed here, but I just have to question the timing.

Hammer Time

Tweet Last night’s article by Joe Drape in the NY Times on NY thoroughbred owner Ernie Paragallo, whose troubles have been well documented in the Paulick Report and throughout the blogosphere over the past week, mentioned something very interesting to me. The paragraphs that caught my eye follow:
“John D. Sabini, the chairman of the [New York] Racing and Wagering Board, also urged the state Thoroughbred Breeding and Development Fund, which distributes incentive awards to thoroughbred breeders and owners, not to issue any checks to Center Brook Farm, Paraneck Stable or Paragallo. Sabini is also on the board that directs the development fund.

As New York’s racing regulator, the board ensures that its licensees are of fit character.”
The New York State Thoroughbred Breeding and Development Fund mission according to its website is “to promote and encourage the breeding, raising and racing of quality thoroughbred horses in New York for the purpose of protecting and preserving New York's green belt sector and rich agricultural heritage.” The Fund, established as a public benefit corporation, receives its revenues from a percentage of on and off-track handle, as well as from some VLT monies. It disburses approximately $13 to $14 million (according to their 2007 audit report) as breeder awards and purses as follows: (a) to breeders of NY-breds finishing first, second, or third in races; (b) as awards to owners of NY-breds finishing first, second, or third in open races; (c) as awards to stallion owners, whose NY stallions have sired NY-breds finishing first second, or third in races; and (d) provide purse moneys for races exclusively for NY-breds. The remainder of the revenue is disbursed aside from the administration to advance and promote breeding and raising of thoroughbreds in New York and for the promotion of equine research.

What’s interesting about this whole thing is that the regulator (Sabini and the NYRWB) may not empowered to do anything and instead has taken a route through the NYSTDF to “punish” Paragallo for his “mistreatment” of NY-breds (of which Sabini is a Board member). Not a bad thing in my opinion and hopefully they’ll put any awards going to Paragallo in escrow until the NYRWB’s investigation is concluded. The reason they may not be empowered however is that he [Paragallo] may only be “deemed” a breeder or agent and thus not subject to licensure rules, since his daughter technically owns the stable. Of course, that doesn’t mean that another branch of the State (Vets?), the State Police or the SPCA can’t get involved. This brings to light that maybe the breeders should fall under some kind of scrutiny/licensure (not just trainers and owners) to give some recourse to the regulator to punish bad behavior. Heck, when explaining the situation to my pal Puma, he asked me “NYS requires a license to fish, but no license to breed a thoroughbred?” The fact that the tracks are now owned by the State evokes even more complexity into the regulating of situations such as this.

Thoroughbred Brief discusses the matter on her blog today also and points us to some precedence where regulators took swift, precise action in reprimanding owners for cruelty to animals.

Right on queue, the NTRA issued this statement, basically telling the authorities to take action, since they can’t. Too bad all they can do is make a statement. Might put the accreditation process for the Big A somewhat at risk, dontcha think?

More importantly than the NTRA statement, was a press release today by The Jockey Club, wherein Ogden Phipps, Chairman is quoted as saying the following:

“The Jockey Club fully supports and assists law enforcement agencies, the courts and racing regulatory authorities in the investigation of matters involving animal cruelty.

Furthermore, pursuant to Section V, Rule 19A (4) of the Principal Rules and Requirements of The American Stud Book, The Jockey Club reserves the right to deny any or all of the privileges of The American Stud Book to any person or entity when there is a final determination by a court, an official tribunal or an official racing body that such person has killed, abandoned, mistreated, neglected or abused, or otherwise committed an act of cruelty to a horse.

The Jockey Club has invoked this rule in the past and will not hesitate to do so again when appropriate. The Jockey Club maintains a long-held conviction that owners are responsible and should be held accountable for the care, well-being and humane treatment of their Thoroughbred horses.”

JB Part Deux: Getting Closer

Tweet Today's guest post is the second of a four part series (I just made that up) from Saratoga Springs veteran handicapper JB who enters the Space Station for a recap of his thoughts as we progress down the road to Louisville. Thanks to JB for filling in for me while I'm searching for every last deduction...

With less 2 weeks 'til Tax day and 4 weeks until we hear a still smarting University of Louisville Marching Band play my "Old Kentucky Home" in front of a 150,000 plus at Churchill there have been major developments on the road to the roses. Quality Road fresh off a very professional performance in the Florida Derby has developed a quarter crack in his right hind hoof and, according to the most under the radar trainer in the business, James Jerkens, he is very concerned about QR's making it to the Derby. Looking back at QR's stylish 1 1/8 mile performance on a Gulfstream surface listed as fast he clearly established himself as a top tier contender who must be seriously considered by racetrackers preparing their Derby picks.

Todd Pletcher wasn't as impressed, claiming track maintenance staff worked the dirt course up to favor front running speed horses which favored the stalking QR and disadvantaged the closers. Dunkirk, Toddy's best hope for wearing a rose boutonniere in early May, is a closer. Anyone who witnessed the race had to be visually impressed with Dunkirk's sweeping move, Garrett Gomez up, inhaling all but one horse on the far turn. But he wasn't able to match QR down the stretch and settled for a disappointing place finish. I like Dunkirk and I believe his 150K in graded earnings will be enough to get him in the Derby field. But I'll be watching who Go Go choses to ride in the big race. That's because Bob Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile will be heading to the Bluegrass state as the reigning Santa Anita Derby champion. Although he was a handful (rating uncomfortably would be putting it mildly) he prevailed over a Pamplemousse-less field last Saturday to stake his claim as the west coast's finest. But not so fast. A closer examination of this nearly pace-less race reveals the emergence of a Giacomo-type runner who just might get the pace scenario he needs to have his photo taken under the twin spires. Chocolate Candy closed REALLY well despite not having a lot go his way. I will be doing more research and writing on this horse as the big day approaches.

Speaking of a big day, I Want Revenge's run in the Wood Memorial was the best demonstration of racing acuity by a 3yo in a major Derby prep in recent memory. WOW. Broke last by 4 lengths, relaxed and gained ground, started his move behind a wall of horses, sawed in half at the 1/8th pole, found a seem 5 wide in the middle (not traditionally the fastest part of the Big A oval) and prevailed after a vigorous handride. 19-year old Joe Talamo looked like Laffit Pincay. Nothing short of extraordinary. He is no doubt a deserving Morning Line Derby favorite, reinforced resoundingly by the bettors in Derby Pool #3.

Unfortunately, my Belmont horse, Imperial Council will not be going to the Derby after being up close and coming up empty under Edgar Prado to finish a winded 5th. Trainer Shug McGaughey stated that he knew he had his hands full after IC acted up terribly in the paddock. The paddock at Oaklawn is exactly where you'll find winterbook Derby favorite Old Fashioned being saddled under new rider Terry Thompson for this Saturday's Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominquez lost his mount after a disappointing second place finish in the Rebel. Cagey Larry Jones must be respected for this decision. However, if Fashioned doesn't rate and fire in his final prep, Papa Clem, fresh off a very game second place finish to Jones' Friesan Fire in the Lousiana Derby, will be ready to punch his ticket to Louisville via the Arkansas Derby express.

Speaking of express; there will be an express first class delivery from Dubai of two Godolphin 3yo's with a big upside. Regal Ransom and Desert Party come off a 1-2 finish in Dubai's 2 million prep for 3 year olds (the UAE Derby). These two colts, ridden by rising star Alan Garcia and world class Frankie Dettori, respectively, are both wildcards to most American handicappers, including this one. But Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum; the most powerful force in racing worldwide has made no secret of his quest to capture America's most prestigious race. Watch out! Speaking of watching out, watch out for a late blooming 3yo colt posting Derby type speed figs on his way to capturing two major prep races won by past Derby champions Street Sense (Tampa Bay Derby) and War Emblem (Illinois Derby - h/t Wind Gatherer). Musket Man still might not be getting the respect he deserves, maybe because he's faced lighter caliber competition on less notable tracks, but with a little racing luck and a good post position he's versatile and fresh enough to be a factor on Derby Day.

JB's Derby Baker's Half Dozen plus 1:
1. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance commands respect
2. Friesan Fire - Hard Spun ran 2nd off a 6 week lay-off
3. Dunkirk - My gut says there's more
4. Pioneerof the Nile - Can he do it on dirt?
5. Old Fashioned - Best value in pool #3
6. Chocolate Candy - Good enough to pull off an upset
7. Musket Man - "Best chance ever for me in the Derby," Coa
Ones to watch: Regal Ransom, Desert Party

Dropping from JB's Derby Baker's Half +1:
Quality Road - Hind right hoof injury can't be good
The Pamplemousse - Leg injury puts him on the sidelines
Imperial Council - Would've loved to see Shug saddle one in the Derby

A Taxing Weekend

Tweet It's that time of year to gather up all those W-2G's (been looking all over for mine) and think about how one goes about reporting them and how to treat gambling losses. For the casual player losses from wagering transactions are allowed only to the extent of the gains from such transactions, but only for those who itemize. The casual gambler who elects to itemize deductionsmay deduct the losses, up to the wagering gains, does so on Form 1040, Schedule A, Line 28 - other miscellaneous deductions (not subject to 2% floor -- Yay). However, the casual gambler who takes the standard deduction rather than electing to itemize may not deduct any wagering losses.

The professional (full-time) gambler is a whole different story (please consult your tax advisor for any advice in this area) and there is a famous court case (Commissioner of Internal Revenue v. Groetzinger) that found in favor of the full-time gambler being able to deduct not only losses, but expenses on Form 1040, Schedule C (Profit or Loss from Trade or Business). The basis for the decision revolved around the issue of "what qualifies as being either a trade or business under Section 162(a) of the Internal Revenue Code." The Court ended up concluding in this case that "if one's gambling activity is pursued full time, in good faith, and with regularity, to the production of income for livelihood, and is not a mere hobby" it qualifies as a trade or business under the Code. n this case the taxpayer spent up to 80 hours a week doing gambling-related activities, had no other employment and for the year in question has $70K in winnings (not bad). He basically made a case that it was his livlihood, thus he was allowed various expenses paid to carry out his business. What was interesting in this 1987 court case was that each case has to be reviewed on a "case-by-case basis" for determing whether the facts support the trade/business argument.

Some other interesting tax cases can be found here. Make sure you take your fair deduction and have receipts or activity printouts from your ADW to support your losses.

Racing: Blah to the Blah

- I'd like to thank Affirmatif (or Affirma-flopped as Colin's Ghost so aptly named him) for blowing up my Keeneland Pick-3 yesterday after two $11.80 winners in the first two legs. I know, I know, that's why they call it gambling.

- I'd like to say I foreshadowed the Mullins syringe affair with the wienermobile appearance in Saturday night's post, but I probably shouldn't take credit. At least his Steve Martin defense tactics came in handy.

- I'm the biggest Derby jinx out there. First, I put a Pool 1 wager on Big Drama (injured), then I include The Pamplemousse (injured) and Imperial Council (off trail) in the Pool 2 futuracta. So yesterday I put in another flyer (i.e., stupid investment) futuracta box in Pool 3 on IWR (see Mullins), Quality Road (see quarter crack), Chocolate Candy (safe for now) and Regal Ransom (sheikh's gotta win one of these years - probably picked the wrong one). I'll be sure to make my Derby selections public so y'all can stay away from them.

- Can't wait to hear how the NTRA spins this one based on all that progress they've been making.

- Don't forget HANA's Target: Tampa tomorrow....Races 6-8 Pick 3....Round 2 of the "Buycott!"

- JB will be in the house later this week while I sign a few returns....stay tuned.

Heidi Game Flashback

Tweet It wasn't exactly the Heidi Game today in the Space Station, but close. I had blogged last evening about the deft clicking ability that would be necessary to navigate the five races between 5 and 6pm. One would have to deftly weave between NBC, TVG, HRTV and MSG+ to see all five races running during the dinner hour. All was well with Keeneland on TVG to see Stardom Bound get upset in the Ashland (G1) by Foolish Pleasure favorite Hooh Why. That's when my afternoon went haywire.

I think Alex must have been sticking pins in his SpaceMan voodoo doll as I maneuvered the channel to NBC to see what Gary Stevens and Tom Hammond had to say, when I saw the dreaded words. Telethon for {Insert Local Charity here}. Horse racing preempted for all day telethon in Buffalo. Damn. I had no Plan B. So I decided to flip over to MSG+ to watch the Wood, found out it's not part of my DirecTV package (even though I have the special sports package...wtf?) I sent out a tweet for help. My nine year old was on the computer in the Space Den. "Umm DJ, could I interrupt your Club Penguin session to watch a race?" His reply, "Sure Dad, for ten bucks." The boy is well trained.

We watched the Illinois Derby (track was reported to be fair by a very good source) and Santa Anita Derby together (he's convinced he won the SA trifecta and that I'm supposed to pay him - now I owe him $27.70). At least it was a good bonding session and he learned a few things about investing in horses. Special thanks to Alan H. who sent me a text on the goings on of the Wood after he saw my tweet of despair.

Not only did my TV session of racing nirvana get totally screwed up, but The Pamplemousse scratches and Imperial Council's got nothing in the tank, both horses in my futuracta box from Future Pool 2. About the only thing that went well today was that I wasn't wagering and that I think I scored pretty well in the R2R game. Two firsts (PoTN and Capt Candyman Can) and two seconds (West Side Bernie and Chocolate Candy) and Gomez/Baffert with Pioneer. With five horses available for selection on Monday, I can concentrate on the Blue Grass, Arkansas and Lexington with three horses and pick up two majors for the Derby.

I did watch the race replays tonight and was very impressed with Joe Talamo's ride on I Want Revenge. It looks like the Wienermobile will be making its way to Louisville, but a new driver will be navigating (Mullins).