Bluegrass Day

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With all of the bad stuff going on this past week, it will be nice to get back to the sport at hand this weekend.

Keeneland has a spectacular racing day covered with several great stakes races (and a guaranteed all stakes Pick 4) on the card. You can catch all the live racing from KEE, including the Bluegrass Stakes live on TVG today, which means I will not be shut out like I was last week. A rebroadcast will occur on ESPN2 with a live showing of the Arkansas Derby at 6pm EST.

The Bluegrass Stakes (free PPs here) looks like a wide-open affair with any of four or five horses that has the ability to win this one. I'm alive in the Maker's Mark/Bluegrass double to Join in the Dance, Terrain, Charitable Man and Lane's End winner Hold Me Back, so I don't have to tell you who I like. Speaking of yesterday's Maker's Mark, I thought Kent Desormeaux's stretch ride on Keeneland's yielding turf course on Mr. Sidney was fantastic in holding off a game Passager and Edgar Prado, watch it if you get the opportunity. Back to the Bluegrass, I think JitD (Pletcher going for his third BG in five years and second in a row) will have some nice value and both Terrain (can handle the synth) and CM (long layoff, love the jock-trainer combo) intrigue me. Who scares me the most in the is one? Theregoesjojo has the biggest speed figure, is desparate for graded stakes winnings and has faced Quality competition over his last three races (yuk yuk). I'm not playing him as he is coming back after a hard ride two weeks ago at Gulfstream.


Notable winners of the Bluegrass include Spectacular Bid, Strike the Gold, Peace Rules and record holder Skip Away (1:47.20).


The Arkansas Derby (free PP's here) will be a redeeming one for Old Fashioned. I think an exacta box with fashionable pick Papa Clem could be in order for this one. I don't think OF will get caught in a speed duel in this one (lessons learned - see Ramon Dominguez in NY today) and should have enough in the tank this week to win outright. I'm not sold on Win Willy, the Rebel set up perfectly for his late running style and don't think he'll get that scenario later today.
A follow-up to Thursday's post on Churchill's fast-tracked accreditation, the CEO of the NTRA was interviewed on TVG yesterday afternoon by Jill Byrne (wish she would have asked him how they could pass muster with a one day on-site visit during a dark period). Again, I think the Code itself is great, but what happens to those tracks that aren't accredited, what's the downside? If it's not a rigorously-tested requirement, then what does it prove? Can you really verify all of the conditions that were in the "48 page application" with a one or two day visit? I'm sure we'll be hearing that Keeneland will be accredited in the next week or two (certainly before the Derby). I don't think I'm the only one scratching his/her head. Just trying to put things in perspective...

This week's "buycott" race is at Mountaineer (a track I follow occasionally) where a perfecta (exacta) is in order.

I'll also be keeping my eye on Laurel Park, where a good friend has a filly named Imalexus running in the 9th. Best of luck!

JB Part Deux: Getting Closer

Tweet Today's guest post is the second of a four part series (I just made that up) from Saratoga Springs veteran handicapper JB who enters the Space Station for a recap of his thoughts as we progress down the road to Louisville. Thanks to JB for filling in for me while I'm searching for every last deduction...

With less 2 weeks 'til Tax day and 4 weeks until we hear a still smarting University of Louisville Marching Band play my "Old Kentucky Home" in front of a 150,000 plus at Churchill there have been major developments on the road to the roses. Quality Road fresh off a very professional performance in the Florida Derby has developed a quarter crack in his right hind hoof and, according to the most under the radar trainer in the business, James Jerkens, he is very concerned about QR's making it to the Derby. Looking back at QR's stylish 1 1/8 mile performance on a Gulfstream surface listed as fast he clearly established himself as a top tier contender who must be seriously considered by racetrackers preparing their Derby picks.

Todd Pletcher wasn't as impressed, claiming track maintenance staff worked the dirt course up to favor front running speed horses which favored the stalking QR and disadvantaged the closers. Dunkirk, Toddy's best hope for wearing a rose boutonniere in early May, is a closer. Anyone who witnessed the race had to be visually impressed with Dunkirk's sweeping move, Garrett Gomez up, inhaling all but one horse on the far turn. But he wasn't able to match QR down the stretch and settled for a disappointing place finish. I like Dunkirk and I believe his 150K in graded earnings will be enough to get him in the Derby field. But I'll be watching who Go Go choses to ride in the big race. That's because Bob Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile will be heading to the Bluegrass state as the reigning Santa Anita Derby champion. Although he was a handful (rating uncomfortably would be putting it mildly) he prevailed over a Pamplemousse-less field last Saturday to stake his claim as the west coast's finest. But not so fast. A closer examination of this nearly pace-less race reveals the emergence of a Giacomo-type runner who just might get the pace scenario he needs to have his photo taken under the twin spires. Chocolate Candy closed REALLY well despite not having a lot go his way. I will be doing more research and writing on this horse as the big day approaches.

Speaking of a big day, I Want Revenge's run in the Wood Memorial was the best demonstration of racing acuity by a 3yo in a major Derby prep in recent memory. WOW. Broke last by 4 lengths, relaxed and gained ground, started his move behind a wall of horses, sawed in half at the 1/8th pole, found a seem 5 wide in the middle (not traditionally the fastest part of the Big A oval) and prevailed after a vigorous handride. 19-year old Joe Talamo looked like Laffit Pincay. Nothing short of extraordinary. He is no doubt a deserving Morning Line Derby favorite, reinforced resoundingly by the bettors in Derby Pool #3.

Unfortunately, my Belmont horse, Imperial Council will not be going to the Derby after being up close and coming up empty under Edgar Prado to finish a winded 5th. Trainer Shug McGaughey stated that he knew he had his hands full after IC acted up terribly in the paddock. The paddock at Oaklawn is exactly where you'll find winterbook Derby favorite Old Fashioned being saddled under new rider Terry Thompson for this Saturday's Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominquez lost his mount after a disappointing second place finish in the Rebel. Cagey Larry Jones must be respected for this decision. However, if Fashioned doesn't rate and fire in his final prep, Papa Clem, fresh off a very game second place finish to Jones' Friesan Fire in the Lousiana Derby, will be ready to punch his ticket to Louisville via the Arkansas Derby express.

Speaking of express; there will be an express first class delivery from Dubai of two Godolphin 3yo's with a big upside. Regal Ransom and Desert Party come off a 1-2 finish in Dubai's 2 million prep for 3 year olds (the UAE Derby). These two colts, ridden by rising star Alan Garcia and world class Frankie Dettori, respectively, are both wildcards to most American handicappers, including this one. But Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum; the most powerful force in racing worldwide has made no secret of his quest to capture America's most prestigious race. Watch out! Speaking of watching out, watch out for a late blooming 3yo colt posting Derby type speed figs on his way to capturing two major prep races won by past Derby champions Street Sense (Tampa Bay Derby) and War Emblem (Illinois Derby - h/t Wind Gatherer). Musket Man still might not be getting the respect he deserves, maybe because he's faced lighter caliber competition on less notable tracks, but with a little racing luck and a good post position he's versatile and fresh enough to be a factor on Derby Day.

JB's Derby Baker's Half Dozen plus 1:
1. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance commands respect
2. Friesan Fire - Hard Spun ran 2nd off a 6 week lay-off
3. Dunkirk - My gut says there's more
4. Pioneerof the Nile - Can he do it on dirt?
5. Old Fashioned - Best value in pool #3
6. Chocolate Candy - Good enough to pull off an upset
7. Musket Man - "Best chance ever for me in the Derby," Coa
Ones to watch: Regal Ransom, Desert Party

Dropping from JB's Derby Baker's Half +1:
Quality Road - Hind right hoof injury can't be good
The Pamplemousse - Leg injury puts him on the sidelines
Imperial Council - Would've loved to see Shug saddle one in the Derby

JB in the House

Tweet With tax season still looming here for me and being the Commish for the annual office NCAA Calcutta starting tonight I've enlisted my guest blogger dude, JB, to provide us with some in-depth analysis over the next few weeks on the Road to Louisville. Let's give him a warm Space Station welcome, grab a little JB and diet and enjoy...

It's that time of year again when racetrackers from across the country catch Derby fever. I, for one, suffer from a more advance malady I like to call Triple Crown hysteria. So for the next few weeks I will be examining the horses getting set to run in the most exciting two minutes, or 1:59 if you're Secretariat, in sports. With the First Saturday in May still more than seven weeks away, which can either be an eternity or not enough time, depending on the condition of your horse, we'll have plenty of time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Let me start out by saying the last two three year old crops have produced two racing freaks; Jess Jackson's magnificent Curlin and IEAH Stables Derby phenom, Big Brown. Compared to their respective Derby fields, both these horses were very lightly raced coming into the Triple Crown series, yet Big Brown, breaking from the 20 post and running wide the entire way, threw an anchor on the field at the top of the stretch and won VERY IMPRESSIVELY. Curlin ran a miraculous third in tight quarters behind a Churchill Downs loving Street Sense and dead game Hard Spun. So despite their lack of traditional Derby prepping both horses stepped up significantly on Derby day.

So is there a a proverbial freak in this years crop? Well if you're a tote board watcher (and who isn't) the odds-on favorite at the close of Derby pool #2 is the lightly raced, Todd Pletcher trained Dunkirk. Clearly he is not taking a traditional path to the Derby. Pointing to the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby on March 28th, and with $0 in graded stakes earnings, he'll need to step up huge to even make it into the field. If you're one of those accountant types [Editors Note: I think he just took a shot at me] who like to follow the money, even early money, you have to take notice. Speaking of taking notice, a trainer with great recent success in the 3YO colt (the aforementioned Hard Spun) and filly (Eight Belles and 3YO Filly Champ Proud Spell) divisions has decided to put off retiring and train two very capable Derby bound colts. Larry Jones is loaded and now we all know it. He is training both the royally bred (AP Indy) Friesan Fire, fresh off a sweep of Louisiana's Fair Grounds 3YO series; and a 5-6 lifetime speedball Old Fashioned (named after everyone's grandmother's favorite drink), ridden by the very talented and under-rated Ramon Dominquez. I love Friesan Fire. He is battle tested, running against fields of quality and size. He is bred for the Derby and Triple Crown distances. He can rate and relax off the pace, changes gears on command for stable rider Gabriel Saez and will get over 7 weeks rest before the Derby. I hold that he is the best and most proven of all the east coast runners on the triple crown trail. Old Fashioned is fast, very fast. But his last race, after chasing a very hot pace and making the lead, he was hooked by a bomb down the lane, handing him his first career defeat. Larry Jones said post race "the track was heavy." But with the game's most patient jock on his back, Old Fashioned must learn to to settle down right quick. Stay tuned for his next start in the Arkansas Derby on April 11th. I Want Revenge's breakout performance in the 1 1/16 two turn Gotham on the Big A's inner track was a head turner for sure. But my head was turned before he entered the gate. Revenge's trainer J-Mull aka Jeff Mullens shipped his first time dirt starter from the left coast with hot shot rider Joe Talamo. That was news. I can't remember the last time J-Mull shipped in a 3YO to Aqueduct. And I know I've never seen Talamo in a winter/spring stakes race in the Big Apple. So what gives? Revenge is a solid, mature race horse who was in complete control from the first call, making legitimate fractions while leaving plenty in the tank for his stretch run. Maybe it wasn't the most stellar field, certainly not compared to the Lousiana Derby, but there was one horse who caught my eye. Imperial Council, trained by Shug McGaughey, took a lot of money that day, maybe because everyone in New York gets excited when Shug shows up in the spring with a 3YO (we all loved Easy Goer). But Shug isn't the kind of trainer to bring a horse to Churchill unless he thinks he has a legitimate shot to make some noise. He closed very well in the Gotham. Maybe there will be a hotter pace for him to close into when he faces Revenge again in the Wood Memorial on April 4th.

Two very impressive California based runners are now on a collision course to lock horns in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4th, following Pioneerof the Nile's win (he was giving the field 5-7 lbs.) in the San Felipe and The Pamplemousse's 6 length victory in the Sham. Top notch trainer Bob Baffert and the world's #1 jockey Garret Gomez combine to make Pioneerof the Nile the west coast's best chance for meeting Kentucky's governor. Garret Gomez is riding like Jordan played in the Finals -- he is in the zone. So if Gomez is up on a horse with a shot, and Baffert, who is very well known for getting horses ready for Kentucky's annual rose party, Pioneer will be ready. The Pamplemousse has looked like a world beater in his 2009 season, taking down 2008 BC Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie and running comfortably on or near the lead in all his starts. But he has yet to be looked in the eye and go belly down in the stretch. A lot of horses look uncatchable when running up front. But inevitably, another horse will look them in the eye and reveal what's inside. The Pamplemousse has yet to show this dimension. As far as Cali horses going from synthetics to dirt, Colonel John's (Garret Gomez up) performance in last year's midsummer derby at the Spa demonstrated that a horse who runs big on synthetics with a legitimate dirt foundation in his pedigree, can win anywhere.

JB's Baker's (1/2) Dozen Derby List:

1. Friesan Fire - Resting and Right
2. Dunkirk - Key him the Florida Derby
3. Pioneerof the Nile - Hasn't run his best race yet
4. Old Fashioned - Needs to discover patience is a virtue
5. I Want Revenge - Not going to get an easy lead in Wood
6. The Pamplemousse - Gut check next time out
7. Imperial Council - I wish there was a Derby Show pool. Belmont calling

Next Entry: Handicapping the Race

Monday Evening Quarterback

Tweet After watching the prep replays today on TVG this afternoon (I'm not a total degenerate, I was babysitting/fathering/transferring wisdom), I'm convinced that Old Fashioned was totally hooked into Silver City's hot pace and Dominguez made a huge mistake taking the bait and not having enough gas to hang on to claim victory. The good news is that this was just a prep and thus, a learning experience. Plus he was still there at the end regardless of the fractions he had to endure. I may have thought twice about my futuracta play (to be discussed later in this post) had I watched the replay more closely yesterday afternoon. Lots are jumping off his bandwagon, but the Derby isn't run in March, so no reason to throw in the towel just yet (Unbridled's Song and all)...Folks are spouting he's a miler...I'm not so sure yet...

After Pioneerof the Nile's ho-hum (my words) win at the San Felipe in regular fashion (90 beyer), I'm wondering what GoGo will do should he ride Dunkirk to victory in the Fla Derby in two weeks and PoTN faces his toughest test with the Mousse on Santa Anita Derby day the week after...high drama indeed. This vote says he'll go with the hype horse Dunkirk should he prevail...

Ok...I made a late futuracta play yesterday with house money (after having a solid Aqueduct day playing chalk on top of trifectas late in the day) with a four horse exacta box. I went with Friesen Fire/The Pamplemousse/Imperial Council/All Others for a buck. FF appears to be the real deal (although the comparisons with Pyro right down to the name factor scares me). The Big Grapefruit will trounce PoTN in three weeks and will be the biggest Cali factor (and Colonel John Travers sold me so I won't totally discount the West Coasters). Imperial Council impressed me in the Gotham with his late run, and I look for him to take the Wood and his price will come way down. Finally the "all others" inclusion is only for the fact that a large number of the horse included in pool 2 won't even be in the gate on 02May and I will pick up a number of horses in my box play that aren't even on the board at present. Oh, and I have a 19-1 Pool one future play at $3 on Friesen Fire to boot. I know it's silly to try and hit something early on the trail, but with house money in hand, why not?

Colin's Ghost had an ironic tweet (to me) tonight basically saying Talamo is the wild card to I Want Revenge's hopes. Ironic, because I email replied to frequent commenter the horse maven earlier in the week after he was touting Talamo as my next Stevie Cauthen on IWR with the following "Talamo is still very green and a loose cannon at times…I think you saw I Want Revenge’s best effort (peaked too early), but that’s IMHO….waiting to see what happens this weekend before wagering on Sunday." Great minds think alike?

Finally learned my lesson...Geno Green ($8.60) won the 3rd at the Big A yesterday....played it hard and heavy.....Geno going on Thursday in the 10th at Fair Ground...will my luck hold up? Stay tuned.

Will be off for a few days concentrating on the NCAA's and the annual calcutta that I run out of my office (more on this in a later post), but my handicapping pal JB will be chiming in with a guest Derby prep post in the near future to fill the gap....happy cinderella hunting and go 'Cuse.

By the way, what ever happened to that Big Chuck horse anyways?

Orange You Glad You Stayed Up?

Tweet The Space Station was locked and loaded last night for the big UConn-Syracuse game. Little did we know that the Space Kid and I were destined for a six OT thriller in the Garden. I know this isn't horse racing related, but it's one of my three passions (the Orangemen, the Bills and racing) and it was center stage last night. My three passions have had quite the week, with the TO signing last weekend (screw the Onion - hat tip to Colin's Ghost), the Cuse staying alive in the Big East (can they do it again with G-Mac in the house?) and a huge Derby prep weekend lined up. They say things happen in threes (let's count Fort Erie's good news as the third?). For the record, I do not have triskaidekaphobia, and last night's victory actually occurred today (1:30am or so), so begat any of you Mountaineer fans who may be throwing some voodoo my way! Things are actually setting up nicely with West Virginia knocking off Pitt, but the team (who went only 7 deep through 5 overtimes) will be exhausted and the minutes may start taking its toll. Now, mind you, I grew up in Central New York and attended the triple OT Big East finale in 1981 as a pimply-faced teenager, where Leo Rautins (Andy's father) tipped in the winner with 0:03 on the clock at the Dome. My whole family still resides there and are all season ticket-holding crazies and my father still makes the annual trek to Manhattan to enjoy the tournament (with occassional detours to AC, of course). Anyways, I'm a tad sleep deprived this morning and giddy over the big win. Two more to go. Another 9 o'clocker tonight.

I was all set to blog on the Derby preps last night, but the game just overthrew that notion. I did sneak a peak at the four main prep BRIS PP's (after negotiating through the trainer sites at the TBA homepage - bottom right hand corner). It is a huge weekend for the EquiSpace R2R stable with four horses live (Old Fashioned, Patena, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesen Fire) for me. I think the most intriguing races are the Louisiana Derby and the Tampa Bay Derby. I'm thinking Old Fashioned and PoTN will run off with their respective races, but the other two look much more interesting from a betting perspective. Three horses that have my attention in the La Derby are Patena, Papa Clem and Terrain (who emerges after a disappointing fifth in the Delta Jackpot). Raf Bejarano selected Papa Clem over New Bay (picks up Talamo) who will be running at his home track in the San Felipe for Richard Mandella and owner B. Wayne Hughes, always a telling angle. Late Saturday afternoon will be a fun time this weekend. More on the TB Derby tomorrow.

The second Derby futures pool is open until Sunday night, on that note I'm disappointed Big Drama is off the trail, I hope to see him down the line at the Spa this summer. Speaking of the Derby, it looks like they will be adding another race to both the Oaks and Derby cards, which makes for a rather long day. It's nice that the Oaks has partnered with the Cure, a rather positive development and positive news for our sport and a great cause.

I didn't get to watch the allowance race at Oaklawn yesterday afternoon featuring last year's 3yo Eclipse champion Proud Spell (see firewall post), but was obtain updates through my fellow twitterers while watching the Live Odds at the DRF. Whenever a big favorite is running (especially after a layoff like Proud Spell) I look for the negative show pool, which occurred as she took $118K of the $127K show pool. Hoping maybe she'd run out of the money I sprinkled a few bucks on the second through fourth choices, only to break even. Will keep trying, Old Fashioned will probably attract the bridgejumpers again this weekend, but not sure he will fall off the board in this one.

Make sure you pick up your race cards for this weekends preps at DRF, using the special TBA code (found in the middle of the homepage - see Formulator ad above the 3yo filly division standings) where you can grab 10 cards for the low, low, low (dare I say rollback?) price of $10. I'll be trying Formulator this weekend for the first time and am looking forward to it.

Presidential Handicapping

Tweet Not too often you can find handicappers being quoted in the Huffington Post, but last November, both Ray Paulick and noted horseplayer Mike Maloney (think he tires of being called a "whale"?) were asked if "handicappers can forecast the outcome of the presidential election better than polls?" Of course each came back with a hell yeah...now we know who to check in with in 2012...of course it's illegal to bet on a US Presidential election...

The $250K Southwest Stakes (G3) goes today at Oaklawn over 8 furlongs on the dirt with a couple Derby hopefuls Old Fashioned and Silver City looking to pave the way to Louisville. Both horses were part of the Derby Futures Pool #1 and ended up at 7-1 and 35-1, respectively. Silver City stretches out for the first time going longer than 6 1/2 furlongs and will most likely set the pace. Old Fashioned with NY riding leader Dominguez aboard, ran some monster races as a 2yo, we'll see how he does coming off a 2 1/2 month layoff. He's sure to be bet down in this one. If you're looking for a longshot, Loch Dubh has won three in a row and has attracted Jon Court (he of Jockeys fame) from the Left Coast to come in to ride.

Happy President's Day everyone...

Futurama

Tweet Derby Future Pool #1 opens up tomorrow and runs through Sunday. The past performances are now available and can be found here. Betting into the first pool is risky as so much can happen between now and the First Saturday in May, injuries, non-qualifiers, etc. Last year's Pool #1 did not include Big Brown, thus the All Other 3yo category was the winning bet at 3-1. He also was excluded from Pool #2 and the All Other category paid 6-1 (not bad)....he was included in Pool #3 and ended up being the favorite and paid out at 3-1. This year's Pool #2 will be the weekend of March 12-15 and Pool #3 is slated for April 2-5.

In a new twist, during the second pool wagering, a Derby Exacta Future will be offered at a $2 minimum bet. I give them credit for trying to come up with a new idea to try and generate some early betting interests on the Road to the Roses.

Looking at the morning lines, there are some interesting lines to start out... Old Fashioned and Capt. Candyman Can the morning line favorites at 10-1. All Other 3yos starts out at 5-2 and will be a line to watch. Filly Stardom Bound is included in the Future Pool at 12-1. I'll take a peek at the odds sometime Sunday afternoon before the pools close to see if anything interests me. I'm a Chocolate Candy (50-1) and Big Drama (30-1) fan, but either would be purely a sentimental selection.

Speaking of the Road to the Roses, the TBA has a league set up, join up with the info you can find here. As of tonight, there are 25 entrants in our league, including yours truly. Join today.