Superstitious Saturday

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Before my high school basketball games my mom would always do a chicken dinner for me (15 game winning streak, all five starters went on to play college ball, '81 Onondaga County league champs) as I was very superstitious not to change my ways during the streak on the way to a school record winning percentage, winning streak and cracking the NYS rankings. Of course my pregame routine also included listening to Styx and Journey on the 8-track, but that's a story for another time and place. In college, well, I can't say what I did before each game to get the nerves out, but let's say it was like clockwork. So when I heard that Ahmad Zayat was pooped on by a bird pre-Derby, (said to be good luck)...hell, after publicly punting PoTN I was spooked into using him.

Why is this relevant? Well, of course, it's not, but it makes a nice intro to discussing the lucky 13 post for Rachel Alexandra. It goes beyond all of my superstitious being to jump on number 13, but hell, she's damn good. Heck, I rocked my newborn daughter in 2003 through two Syracuse Final Four games that led to a title (no way I was letting go of that kid, sometimes the little things help). Personally, I think it's the best possible outcome for her. Just like Big Brown used in last year's Derby to swoop to a perfect tactical position into the first turn, I think this will serve RA well. It will also avoid the potential bumping and jostling she could endure with a middle post position. The other thing that benefits her is the 5 lb handicap the boys will be spotting her this afternoon. She will be carrying 121 lbs to the boys' 126. This is like giving Tiger Woods shots.

For more on supersitions, make sure you stay away from the dandelions (see third from bottom).

I still haven't decided my play yet and probably won't post it (bad luck!), but I'll tell y'all who I'm leaning towards: I think Musket Man will hit the board, PoTN should be there, too. I love Big Drama, but that could just be sentimental, as he'll be forced to take the early lead. I really like that he's got Johnny V in the irons. Could this be Gomez' day in the sun? Let's say I'll have these three in my mix come late afternoon along with the filly. I'm live in the Susan/Preakness double after Payton D'Oro finished off a winning P4 ticket for me w/MM, PoTN, RA and FF.

I gotta give props to the NTRA for not rubber stamping Pimlico with full accreditation via this week's Safety & Integrity Alliance review. While I correctly predicted an announcement this week, I was semi-shocked at the provisional accreditation. I am willing to admit when I'm wrong. I am still a little curious about Tommy Thompson's law firm, Akin Gump, (compensated?) involvement as an "observer." What, pray tell, does this mean and how does this make him independent? It appears Pimlico's shortcomings were documentation-related and not "safety-related," and they will have to adhere to a specified timetable (30 days) to cure the violations per the definition in the Code. Per the DRF article on the provisional accreditation, "Pimlico would need to "advocate" for changes to Maryland's racing laws regarding the characteristics of regulation whips and press the Maryland racing commission to begin conducting out-of-competition testing and to freeze postrace samples within the next 30 days." It was very interesting to me that the whips "issue" was completely left out of the NTRA post. Anyways, I'm satisfied that this isn't just a total PR gig.

While the big race is in Baltimore on Saturday, a fine little sprint will be taking place at Churchill Downs, the Matt Winn. I had put Cash Refund in my watch list after watching him romp on the Derby Trial Stakes undercard during my Churchill visit. He will be facing Capt. Candyman Can and three others going 7 furlongs under the twin spires. Keep an eye on this one.

Happy Preakness Day and good luck everyone!

La Chica Attempts to Fend Off Seconditis

Tweet Bella Cavello Stables' La Chica Rica (9-5 ML favorite) will try for the repeat tomorrow night at the Mountain in the $75K Hancock County Stakes in a 5 furlong sprint in Race 9. The Western New York based stable sends her out for her third start off the layoff, after two straight placings, one at Mountaineer in her 2008 debut and then at Charles Town, both under the lights. Mike Farrell has a nice piece up at DRF.com, so she's starting to garner the respect she deserves in her 6yo season. She'll face some tough foes as Michael Trombetta (23% w/shippers) ships in What Time It Is (2-1) and Daniel Smithwick ships in Hadavision (8-1) after two strong showings on the poly at Keeneland with Julien Leparoux and Shaun Bridgmohan aboard. Chica looks to top the half million mark in career earnings, currently sitting on $482,682. The race is scheduled to go off at 10:20pm. Good luck Chica.

When I wrote on Derby Night that "I have to believe Garret Gomez was completely shocked when Borel breezed by his inside in the stretch..." I didn't know he would use almost the same description in his well-written and must-read blog entry On to Pimlico at NTRA.com. Gomez wrote:

"Yeah, I got a little butterfly in my stomach on that one, but then I took a peek to the inside just to kind of check and see what was going on around me and I caught a glimpse of a horse to the inside of me and went to riding. I knew by the body position that it was Calvin and the first thing that flashed through my mind was, "Who's he on again?" and then I was like, "Mine That Bird or whatever his name was… how is that horse coming by me?!" It just didn't make sense. He went by me so fast that it was unbelievable, almost unexplainable. It was just a shock."

Maybe lost in all this hyperbole and collusion stuff surrounding the filly, is the fact that Pioneerof the Nile handled the dirt pretty well (much better than I expected) and he could be very difficult to beat come Saturday. On Derby day, I singled him in second in the exotics and underneath in third on several tri tickets, but come this weekend, I'm thinking he has what it takes after that showing. Gomez is hungry for a Classic win, this may be his best chance yet.

Horse Racing Nation, a site I happened upon last month and frequent often, has some early Preakness morning line odds posted here. Check it out.

The Birdman Cometh (and the Birdman Taketh Away)

Tweet We can chalk that one up to to the Anything Can Happen in The Kentucky Derby scenario. If you told anyone in Racing Blogger Nation last week that a) the favorite would scratch in the morning, b) the post-time favorite would get stepped on out of the gate and lose half a hoof, c) the second choice would stumble out of the gate and d) a 50-1 shot would win by over 6 lengths, they would have had you committed.

From a handicapping perspective (and I'm grasping at straws here) the only way you could picked the winner is that you actually watched his previous races (and your sister is the trainer's neighbor), you bet his pedigree (sired by Belmont winner Birdstone, grandsire is Derby winner Grindstone) or 8 is your favorite number. I wouldn't have had Mine That Bird in a million years. Actually my quote was "slowest of the slow" in my Gremlin post. I did have one trifecta bet where I singled PoTN in the 2nd hole and had Musket Man in the 3 hole with four others, unfortunately I didn't have MTB as one of my top four horses on that ticket. I was actually excited for a moment thinking it might have been Dunkirk coming up the rail, but to no avail...so I wasn't too disappointed in my handicapping, but it still came up empty. Four synthetic wins, never won on dirt, lowest speed figures in the field, highest dosage index in the field (not that it means anything), and finished last in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Go figure.

Some pundits are saying that the mud and the distance were the two equalizers on Saturday, I'll wait and see how he does in the Preakness before making that assessment, which should be a tremendous betting opportunity, by the way. The Birdman could be the highest priced Derby winner in Baltimore since Giacomo (6-1) in 2005. Yesterday, he ran a 105 beyer, compared to Giacomo's 100 in 2005.

At least, MTB has a feel-good story (was Canada's champion 2yo last year), unfortunately General Quarters wasn't the one we were hoping would hit paydirt here at Space Camp. Finishing 10th and not handling the mud very well, 75 year old trainer Tom McCarthy said "He came back to the barn choking in mud. One eye was completely packed shut and his one nostril was completely shut with mud. He coughed twice and it popped out." (Buffalo News)

Looks like the Sheikh will have to go back to his piggy bank as both Regal Ransom (faded to 8th after threatening in the early stages) and Desert Party (14th, never a factor) failed to get the Sheikh into the Churchill winner's circle. Can't say I'm disappointed. Where does the Sheikh party on Friday night Derby Eve though, I need to know these types of things? With his harem?

Todd Pletcher (0 for 24 in the Derby) was able to stay out of last place, although Atomic Rain threatened to keep his caboose streak alive. I wonder if Dunkirk will run back in the Preakness? (Update: Nope, injured left hind hoof....see here)

I would think that absolutely fabulous ride by Calvin Borel may have catapulted him into Hall of Fame consideration. He has absolutely mastered that ride and the overhead shot of him saving ground and picking off horses in the stretch in the inside lane was incredible. I have to believe Garret Gomez was completely shocked when Borel breezed by his inside in the stretch, unfortunately the monkey is still on his back, but he rode an excellent race on the Nile.

Pletcher commented on the winning connections by saying "I salute Calvin for his terrific ride. It's an amazing story. It just shows you how special this race is. Anything can happen."

And it did.

JB: Dialing It In

Tweet JB from smallbany is dialing in his Derby selections in tonight's guest post. I want to thank him for spending the time and filling in during the last few weeks of tax season while I was under the gun...he continues to share some of his handicapping prowess, sit back and take a quick Derbyism 101 course from my main man:

When it comes to trying to pick a winner in America's biggest race there are a many factors racetrackers from across the country must consider. Here are JB's top 10 Derbyisms for the 135th edition of the Run for the Roses:

Derbyism #1 - Consider only the fastest horses. Look at past performances on dirt with particular attention to triple digit beyer figures. Horses to watch: Friesan Fire (104), Dunkirk (108), I Want Revenge (113 and 103), West Side Bernie (101), Win Willy (102).

Derbyism #2 - Consider horses who have trained well, exceptionally well, over the Churchill surface. Mike Welsch of the DRF does a superb job watching horses hit the track and analyzing workouts. He is worth a read. Horses to watch: Friesan Fire (57.4 5F), Pioneerof the Nile (101 flat 5f easy).

Derbyism #3 - Consider horses peaking at the right time. Even if a colt didn't win his last prep, watch the replays. If you did in 2005 you would have seen a very game Giacomo run fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Horses to watch: Hold Me Back (2nd), Dunkirk (2nd), West Side Bernie (2nd), Chocolate Candy (2nd), Desert Party (2nd).

Derbyism #4 - Consider the size of previous fields horses have run in. Analyze whether they raced inside, outside or needed the lead. The Derby field is 20 horses. Some racers just don't like getting dirt kicked in their face, being covered up or waiting in the gate. Friesan Fire's Louisiana Derby and I Want Revenge's Wood stand out the most.

Derbyism #5 - Consider jockey changes. Jockeys tend to stay on horses who have it figured out. Trainers making jockey changes might be looking for something that isn't there.
Pioneerof the Nile (Gomez), Friesan Fire (Saez), Papa Clem (Bejarano), Hold Me Back (Desormeaux) all retained their mounts.

Derbyism #6 - Consider post position. For some horses it doesn't matter (see Big Brown) but for others (like Funny Cide) it can put them in a nice spot to run a big race. See Geno's spreadsheet for where winners have won from over the past 39 years and what posts have been ITM the most and which ones have been the dead positions on the board.

Derbyism #7 - Pace makes the race. This is more true this year than in past years, as there is little separating the top tier horses, and with a fast pace, the four second tier horses. Fractions like 23.4/5 +, 47. 2/5 +, favor I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Desert Party and Pioneerof the Nile. Faster pace helps Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, West Side Bernie and Win Willy. [EquiSpace comment: Check out Louisiana racecaller Travis Stone's pace analysis post which confirms JB's pace thoughts]

Derbyism #8 - Horses don't talk but trainers do. Dunkirk - Pletcher: "gives me my best chance to win my first Derby." Pioneerof the Nile - Baffert: "After watching [his last workout] I am confident he is going to show up and run the race of his life on Saturday." Friesan Fire - Jones: "if he wins the Derby we're in great shape for the Triple Crown."

Derbyism #9 - Consider horse maturity and experience. To win the Derby a horse must run his race, meaning he must break well, use tactical speed to get to where he wants to be, RELAX i.e., get his stride and breathing rhythm going without working too hard and start moving forward near the top of the stretch without having to change course or back off. Obviously, the jockey will have a lot to do with all of these things. Seasoned horses seem to do all these things best.

Derbyism #10 - Track condition or track bias that day. Churchill on the day of the 2007 Breeder's Cup was an inside biased track. Watch the races leading up to post. Is the track favoring speed or closers? Examine whether winners on the undercard make sense.

Derbyism #11 - Poly preps. Commenter FriarCat emailed and asked about California's Derby contenders running on dirt. This year, California horses' form has held up well when shipping and running on dirt. Papa Clem won the Arkansas Derby and I Want Revenge was a monster winning the Gotham and Wood in New York. Colonel John's performance in last year's Travers showed that a polytrack player with a dirt pedigree can win on dirt against top tier stakes competition Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) - Beat every California horse running in this year's Derby. Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway -- ran second to Tiznow on the BC Classic), Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow)

JB's Derby Picks
Top three
1. Friesan Fire - "With this horse we're following the steps of Hard Spun," Trainer Larry Jones. Fortunately there is no Street Sense in the race. Jockey Saez ran 2nd last year on Eight Belles. Larry Jones goes into retirement with a Derby champion.
2. Pioneerof the Nile - Baffert is a great trainer on his way to being inducted in the Horse Racing Hall of Fame this coming August in Saratoga. It's a pretty nice story. Pioneer's sire Empire Maker should have won in 2003, but for a foot injury that threw off his training. Gomez is the nation's hottest jockey.
3. Dunkirk - A victory by Dunkirk would be a surprise because he didn't race as a 2YO. He might be a freak, but I don't think he's as good as Curlin was at the same point in his 3YO campaign. His lack of seasoning in a 20 horse field makes him hard to love.

Next two
4. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance was visibly awesome. Maybe too awesome. Talamo has never ridden in the Derby. Mullins is not your typical derby trainer. He still hasn't beaten Pioneer of the Nile.
5. Desert Party - bin Suroor horses always seem to run really well in the big races. He had a solid final prep and looks to be sitting on a career performance. He is good enough to win it.

Outside chance
6. Chocolate Candy - A hot pace and Mike Smith bring him to the leaders at the 1/8th pole.
7. Hold Me Back - Liked the way he ran in his last prep. Kent will be picking off horses late. Plus Tug likes him.

Big surprise
8. Win Willy - Triple digit beyer on dirt beating Old Fashioned. Sired by Derby champion Monarchos.

Bigger surprise
9. West Side Bernie - Triple digit beyer in the Wood, but not sure if his pedigree holds up.

Biggest surprise
10. Mr. Hot Stuff - Eoin Harty is great. Tiznow was great. This horse is improving and under the radar.

So those are my picks for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby. Like many of you, I'll be glued to a TV set when the flag drops this Saturday. My version of the Space Gal is reminding me to remind you to "box it." I think I'll take her advice. [EquiSpace comment: Yeah she's the same gal that preached "gray skies, gray horse," back on the Spa's opening day last year, four grays won that day, so she knows what she's talkin' bout]

In closing, I like to think I handicap a little bit like Seve Ballesteros played golf -- with a lot of imagination, a little flair for the dramatic, an appreciation of being in the battle and most of all, a love of the game. Good luck everyone.

Blogospheric Pressure

Tweet As a little kid, my mom always used to buy the Farmers' Almanac, so she knew what the weather was going to be like. I haven't looked at this since I was a little kid, so I checked to see if they had some info on Louisville, say around, the first week in May. Looks to be sunny and warm according to the Free two month outlook here. Good to know whether to dedicate any time to the Wet Tomlinsons...

Garret Gomez will announce his decision on Sunday for either Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk (holding breath) per his NTRA blog. I'm saying he goes with the Cali-based PoTN over Pletcher's, and also that it's a mistake if he does. Interesting how he compares both horses and trainer's styles in the post. Good reading, no mention of monkeys in the blog though.

Here's a shocker. The NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance announced the Keeneland accreditation today in Lexington. The article was a bit more descriptive about the rigor of the audit (wonder why they decided to do that?) and that it covered more than just a one day onsite visit. At least this time they actually conducted the review during an actual meet. Amazingly, the next two stops appear to be Pimlico and Belmont. Must be some big races coming up at these sites.

Looks like Mafaaz is going to drop out of the PDI next week, well unless Joe Drape continues to put him in his top five. You have to give his connections (Mafaaz' that is) credit for gracefully bowing out, and not taking up a spot in the Derby from Mr. Hot Stuff, Flying Private or whatever other 50-1 shot is looming out there. Check out the TBA's morning line prognosticators on the homepage.

Starting to gear up for next week's trip to Lexington and getting pretty excited about our first visit to Keeneland and a quick trip to Louisville for Churchill's opening day card and the Derby Trial Stakes. Any tips on what to see or do in Lex would be appreciated. Drop me a line or comment.

I've also started my 2009 Derby spreadsheet, which will share some interesting data all in one place. I did it last year and sent it over to the Saratoga Resident, who distributed to all his Albany buddies. Last week he emailed me saying he was asked about it in two separate meetings on the same day and just shook his head. It's in Excel, but I'll try and figure out how to post it in the Google Docs thingy on my sidebar.....halfway home....

Can Gomez Get The Monkey Off His Back?

Tweet After watching the thrilling charges of Phil and Tiger this afternoon and remembering back when Mickelson had not yet won a major, I started thinking to myself, what jockey currently holds the title of "best jockey to never win a classic?" Let's just say the caption to the inset would answer the question with the following: "This Guy!"

Johnny V got the monkey off his back (and his usual trainer Pletcher as well) at the 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches, a race where Gomez had a pretty decent shot with a horse named Hard Spun, that he would also ride for the last time. Similar to when Mickelson was the best golfer to not win a major, winning all kinds of regular PGA events, Gomez has a lot of other big stakes races under his belt.

He is the leading jockey in earnings for the past three years, as well as the Eclipse Award winning jockey for the last two years. He is the best jockey in the world, bar none. But. He hasn't won the big one. Sure, he's won something like eight Breeders' Cup races, but no classics. Zero. Is this the year? Does he feel pressure to win the Derby? He has a major decision to make in choosing his Derby horse, as it appears based on the latest graded earnings at the TT website, that Pletcher's Dunkirk should sneak in the back door. I am going to bet he stays on Pioneerof the Nile for Baffert, but both would give him the chance to win it. Wouldn't it be something if he picked the wrong horse and the other won?

He turned 37 on New Year's Day, so his opportunities dwindle with each year that passes. He's done everything else there is to do, he's won the Kentucky Oaks, the Travers, the Bluegrass Stakes, the Santa Anita Derby, the Goodwood and the Cigar Mile. Not a bad list of races. You can bet he wants to add a Classic to that list, though. Let's hope he get's it off his back, just like Phil.

JB Part Deux: Getting Closer

Tweet Today's guest post is the second of a four part series (I just made that up) from Saratoga Springs veteran handicapper JB who enters the Space Station for a recap of his thoughts as we progress down the road to Louisville. Thanks to JB for filling in for me while I'm searching for every last deduction...

With less 2 weeks 'til Tax day and 4 weeks until we hear a still smarting University of Louisville Marching Band play my "Old Kentucky Home" in front of a 150,000 plus at Churchill there have been major developments on the road to the roses. Quality Road fresh off a very professional performance in the Florida Derby has developed a quarter crack in his right hind hoof and, according to the most under the radar trainer in the business, James Jerkens, he is very concerned about QR's making it to the Derby. Looking back at QR's stylish 1 1/8 mile performance on a Gulfstream surface listed as fast he clearly established himself as a top tier contender who must be seriously considered by racetrackers preparing their Derby picks.

Todd Pletcher wasn't as impressed, claiming track maintenance staff worked the dirt course up to favor front running speed horses which favored the stalking QR and disadvantaged the closers. Dunkirk, Toddy's best hope for wearing a rose boutonniere in early May, is a closer. Anyone who witnessed the race had to be visually impressed with Dunkirk's sweeping move, Garrett Gomez up, inhaling all but one horse on the far turn. But he wasn't able to match QR down the stretch and settled for a disappointing place finish. I like Dunkirk and I believe his 150K in graded earnings will be enough to get him in the Derby field. But I'll be watching who Go Go choses to ride in the big race. That's because Bob Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile will be heading to the Bluegrass state as the reigning Santa Anita Derby champion. Although he was a handful (rating uncomfortably would be putting it mildly) he prevailed over a Pamplemousse-less field last Saturday to stake his claim as the west coast's finest. But not so fast. A closer examination of this nearly pace-less race reveals the emergence of a Giacomo-type runner who just might get the pace scenario he needs to have his photo taken under the twin spires. Chocolate Candy closed REALLY well despite not having a lot go his way. I will be doing more research and writing on this horse as the big day approaches.

Speaking of a big day, I Want Revenge's run in the Wood Memorial was the best demonstration of racing acuity by a 3yo in a major Derby prep in recent memory. WOW. Broke last by 4 lengths, relaxed and gained ground, started his move behind a wall of horses, sawed in half at the 1/8th pole, found a seem 5 wide in the middle (not traditionally the fastest part of the Big A oval) and prevailed after a vigorous handride. 19-year old Joe Talamo looked like Laffit Pincay. Nothing short of extraordinary. He is no doubt a deserving Morning Line Derby favorite, reinforced resoundingly by the bettors in Derby Pool #3.

Unfortunately, my Belmont horse, Imperial Council will not be going to the Derby after being up close and coming up empty under Edgar Prado to finish a winded 5th. Trainer Shug McGaughey stated that he knew he had his hands full after IC acted up terribly in the paddock. The paddock at Oaklawn is exactly where you'll find winterbook Derby favorite Old Fashioned being saddled under new rider Terry Thompson for this Saturday's Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominquez lost his mount after a disappointing second place finish in the Rebel. Cagey Larry Jones must be respected for this decision. However, if Fashioned doesn't rate and fire in his final prep, Papa Clem, fresh off a very game second place finish to Jones' Friesan Fire in the Lousiana Derby, will be ready to punch his ticket to Louisville via the Arkansas Derby express.

Speaking of express; there will be an express first class delivery from Dubai of two Godolphin 3yo's with a big upside. Regal Ransom and Desert Party come off a 1-2 finish in Dubai's 2 million prep for 3 year olds (the UAE Derby). These two colts, ridden by rising star Alan Garcia and world class Frankie Dettori, respectively, are both wildcards to most American handicappers, including this one. But Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum; the most powerful force in racing worldwide has made no secret of his quest to capture America's most prestigious race. Watch out! Speaking of watching out, watch out for a late blooming 3yo colt posting Derby type speed figs on his way to capturing two major prep races won by past Derby champions Street Sense (Tampa Bay Derby) and War Emblem (Illinois Derby - h/t Wind Gatherer). Musket Man still might not be getting the respect he deserves, maybe because he's faced lighter caliber competition on less notable tracks, but with a little racing luck and a good post position he's versatile and fresh enough to be a factor on Derby Day.

JB's Derby Baker's Half Dozen plus 1:
1. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance commands respect
2. Friesan Fire - Hard Spun ran 2nd off a 6 week lay-off
3. Dunkirk - My gut says there's more
4. Pioneerof the Nile - Can he do it on dirt?
5. Old Fashioned - Best value in pool #3
6. Chocolate Candy - Good enough to pull off an upset
7. Musket Man - "Best chance ever for me in the Derby," Coa
Ones to watch: Regal Ransom, Desert Party

Dropping from JB's Derby Baker's Half +1:
Quality Road - Hind right hoof injury can't be good
The Pamplemousse - Leg injury puts him on the sidelines
Imperial Council - Would've loved to see Shug saddle one in the Derby

Heidi Game Flashback

Tweet It wasn't exactly the Heidi Game today in the Space Station, but close. I had blogged last evening about the deft clicking ability that would be necessary to navigate the five races between 5 and 6pm. One would have to deftly weave between NBC, TVG, HRTV and MSG+ to see all five races running during the dinner hour. All was well with Keeneland on TVG to see Stardom Bound get upset in the Ashland (G1) by Foolish Pleasure favorite Hooh Why. That's when my afternoon went haywire.

I think Alex must have been sticking pins in his SpaceMan voodoo doll as I maneuvered the channel to NBC to see what Gary Stevens and Tom Hammond had to say, when I saw the dreaded words. Telethon for {Insert Local Charity here}. Horse racing preempted for all day telethon in Buffalo. Damn. I had no Plan B. So I decided to flip over to MSG+ to watch the Wood, found out it's not part of my DirecTV package (even though I have the special sports package...wtf?) I sent out a tweet for help. My nine year old was on the computer in the Space Den. "Umm DJ, could I interrupt your Club Penguin session to watch a race?" His reply, "Sure Dad, for ten bucks." The boy is well trained.

We watched the Illinois Derby (track was reported to be fair by a very good source) and Santa Anita Derby together (he's convinced he won the SA trifecta and that I'm supposed to pay him - now I owe him $27.70). At least it was a good bonding session and he learned a few things about investing in horses. Special thanks to Alan H. who sent me a text on the goings on of the Wood after he saw my tweet of despair.

Not only did my TV session of racing nirvana get totally screwed up, but The Pamplemousse scratches and Imperial Council's got nothing in the tank, both horses in my futuracta box from Future Pool 2. About the only thing that went well today was that I wasn't wagering and that I think I scored pretty well in the R2R game. Two firsts (PoTN and Capt Candyman Can) and two seconds (West Side Bernie and Chocolate Candy) and Gomez/Baffert with Pioneer. With five horses available for selection on Monday, I can concentrate on the Blue Grass, Arkansas and Lexington with three horses and pick up two majors for the Derby.

I did watch the race replays tonight and was very impressed with Joe Talamo's ride on I Want Revenge. It looks like the Wienermobile will be making its way to Louisville, but a new driver will be navigating (Mullins).

Huge Hour of Racing Tomorrow

Tweet Covered over at the Crist blog are the five Grade I races going off between 5pm and 6pm EST tomorrow, including three HUGE Derby preps, the Illinois, the Wood and the Santa Anita. If you're watching or playing from home you'll have to have a quick trigger finger....if I've got it correctly it looks like TVG (Ashland at Keeneland) to NBC (Illinois Derby at Hawthorne) to MSG+ (Wood Memorial at Aqueduct) to HRTV (Skip Away at Gulfstream) back to NBC (Santa Anita Derby at SA) back to MSG+ (Carter Handicap at Aqueduct) back to HRTV (Apple Blosson at Oaklawn Park). Whew...that's some work right there. Good news that MSG+ will be also broadcasting five Saturdays from the Spa this summer!

Some quick picks for the Derby preps (free PP's at the TBA homepage):

Illinois Derby. I like Giant Oak to step forward in this one (will HAW have the track souped this year?) he's definitely bred for the distance. Nowhere to Hide was caught wide in the TB Derby and is his third race off a layoff. I'll try and beat Musket Man with these two, but should round out the trifecta. Longshot: Al Khali.

Wood Memorial. Guessing it's going to be wet tomorrow at the Big A (if it's anything like what's going on this side of the state) just like last year when Tale of Ekati won it in the slop. Going with the upset here. Lime Rickey, a Lemon Drop Kid with Javier up is going turf to dirt with good slop pedigree...his connections have him in here for a reason. Imperial Council will probably take quite a bit at the windows and will be an underlay, he needs the graded stakes money to qualify for the Derby so it'll be all out for this one. Lord Justice decided to stay east instead of going to Hawthorne and has some decent off track numbers (including a win). At least you can't say I'm not chalky playing against I Want Revenge who drew the rail with west coast rider Joe Talamo.

Santa Anita Derby. I think The P-Mousse is the real deal and will handle Chocolate Candy and Pioneerof the Nile easier than people think. I'm a Candy fan, but I think he's overmatched against the Mousse, even with the outside draw.

I had a decent contest day today at Keeneland picking 3 winners in the last 4 races (losing with Tweeter of all horses). My best winner being Heart of a King ($28.40) in the eighth. In real betting, we made a gigantic $2.95 (hey a positive day is a good day!). I like the $0.50 trifectas bets. Was rooting for one of Roman Ruler's first offspring, Supraman, in the second, who faded to fifth. I was a big Ruler fan and look forward to keeping an eye on more that he's sired. Boy, it sure looked cold there today, glad I'm not going til the end of the meet, hopefully it'll warm up by then.

Enjoy the big hour tomorrow and make sure your clicking hand is nimble.

JB in the House

Tweet With tax season still looming here for me and being the Commish for the annual office NCAA Calcutta starting tonight I've enlisted my guest blogger dude, JB, to provide us with some in-depth analysis over the next few weeks on the Road to Louisville. Let's give him a warm Space Station welcome, grab a little JB and diet and enjoy...

It's that time of year again when racetrackers from across the country catch Derby fever. I, for one, suffer from a more advance malady I like to call Triple Crown hysteria. So for the next few weeks I will be examining the horses getting set to run in the most exciting two minutes, or 1:59 if you're Secretariat, in sports. With the First Saturday in May still more than seven weeks away, which can either be an eternity or not enough time, depending on the condition of your horse, we'll have plenty of time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Let me start out by saying the last two three year old crops have produced two racing freaks; Jess Jackson's magnificent Curlin and IEAH Stables Derby phenom, Big Brown. Compared to their respective Derby fields, both these horses were very lightly raced coming into the Triple Crown series, yet Big Brown, breaking from the 20 post and running wide the entire way, threw an anchor on the field at the top of the stretch and won VERY IMPRESSIVELY. Curlin ran a miraculous third in tight quarters behind a Churchill Downs loving Street Sense and dead game Hard Spun. So despite their lack of traditional Derby prepping both horses stepped up significantly on Derby day.

So is there a a proverbial freak in this years crop? Well if you're a tote board watcher (and who isn't) the odds-on favorite at the close of Derby pool #2 is the lightly raced, Todd Pletcher trained Dunkirk. Clearly he is not taking a traditional path to the Derby. Pointing to the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby on March 28th, and with $0 in graded stakes earnings, he'll need to step up huge to even make it into the field. If you're one of those accountant types [Editors Note: I think he just took a shot at me] who like to follow the money, even early money, you have to take notice. Speaking of taking notice, a trainer with great recent success in the 3YO colt (the aforementioned Hard Spun) and filly (Eight Belles and 3YO Filly Champ Proud Spell) divisions has decided to put off retiring and train two very capable Derby bound colts. Larry Jones is loaded and now we all know it. He is training both the royally bred (AP Indy) Friesan Fire, fresh off a sweep of Louisiana's Fair Grounds 3YO series; and a 5-6 lifetime speedball Old Fashioned (named after everyone's grandmother's favorite drink), ridden by the very talented and under-rated Ramon Dominquez. I love Friesan Fire. He is battle tested, running against fields of quality and size. He is bred for the Derby and Triple Crown distances. He can rate and relax off the pace, changes gears on command for stable rider Gabriel Saez and will get over 7 weeks rest before the Derby. I hold that he is the best and most proven of all the east coast runners on the triple crown trail. Old Fashioned is fast, very fast. But his last race, after chasing a very hot pace and making the lead, he was hooked by a bomb down the lane, handing him his first career defeat. Larry Jones said post race "the track was heavy." But with the game's most patient jock on his back, Old Fashioned must learn to to settle down right quick. Stay tuned for his next start in the Arkansas Derby on April 11th. I Want Revenge's breakout performance in the 1 1/16 two turn Gotham on the Big A's inner track was a head turner for sure. But my head was turned before he entered the gate. Revenge's trainer J-Mull aka Jeff Mullens shipped his first time dirt starter from the left coast with hot shot rider Joe Talamo. That was news. I can't remember the last time J-Mull shipped in a 3YO to Aqueduct. And I know I've never seen Talamo in a winter/spring stakes race in the Big Apple. So what gives? Revenge is a solid, mature race horse who was in complete control from the first call, making legitimate fractions while leaving plenty in the tank for his stretch run. Maybe it wasn't the most stellar field, certainly not compared to the Lousiana Derby, but there was one horse who caught my eye. Imperial Council, trained by Shug McGaughey, took a lot of money that day, maybe because everyone in New York gets excited when Shug shows up in the spring with a 3YO (we all loved Easy Goer). But Shug isn't the kind of trainer to bring a horse to Churchill unless he thinks he has a legitimate shot to make some noise. He closed very well in the Gotham. Maybe there will be a hotter pace for him to close into when he faces Revenge again in the Wood Memorial on April 4th.

Two very impressive California based runners are now on a collision course to lock horns in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4th, following Pioneerof the Nile's win (he was giving the field 5-7 lbs.) in the San Felipe and The Pamplemousse's 6 length victory in the Sham. Top notch trainer Bob Baffert and the world's #1 jockey Garret Gomez combine to make Pioneerof the Nile the west coast's best chance for meeting Kentucky's governor. Garret Gomez is riding like Jordan played in the Finals -- he is in the zone. So if Gomez is up on a horse with a shot, and Baffert, who is very well known for getting horses ready for Kentucky's annual rose party, Pioneer will be ready. The Pamplemousse has looked like a world beater in his 2009 season, taking down 2008 BC Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie and running comfortably on or near the lead in all his starts. But he has yet to be looked in the eye and go belly down in the stretch. A lot of horses look uncatchable when running up front. But inevitably, another horse will look them in the eye and reveal what's inside. The Pamplemousse has yet to show this dimension. As far as Cali horses going from synthetics to dirt, Colonel John's (Garret Gomez up) performance in last year's midsummer derby at the Spa demonstrated that a horse who runs big on synthetics with a legitimate dirt foundation in his pedigree, can win anywhere.

JB's Baker's (1/2) Dozen Derby List:

1. Friesan Fire - Resting and Right
2. Dunkirk - Key him the Florida Derby
3. Pioneerof the Nile - Hasn't run his best race yet
4. Old Fashioned - Needs to discover patience is a virtue
5. I Want Revenge - Not going to get an easy lead in Wood
6. The Pamplemousse - Gut check next time out
7. Imperial Council - I wish there was a Derby Show pool. Belmont calling

Next Entry: Handicapping the Race

Orange You Glad You Stayed Up?

Tweet The Space Station was locked and loaded last night for the big UConn-Syracuse game. Little did we know that the Space Kid and I were destined for a six OT thriller in the Garden. I know this isn't horse racing related, but it's one of my three passions (the Orangemen, the Bills and racing) and it was center stage last night. My three passions have had quite the week, with the TO signing last weekend (screw the Onion - hat tip to Colin's Ghost), the Cuse staying alive in the Big East (can they do it again with G-Mac in the house?) and a huge Derby prep weekend lined up. They say things happen in threes (let's count Fort Erie's good news as the third?). For the record, I do not have triskaidekaphobia, and last night's victory actually occurred today (1:30am or so), so begat any of you Mountaineer fans who may be throwing some voodoo my way! Things are actually setting up nicely with West Virginia knocking off Pitt, but the team (who went only 7 deep through 5 overtimes) will be exhausted and the minutes may start taking its toll. Now, mind you, I grew up in Central New York and attended the triple OT Big East finale in 1981 as a pimply-faced teenager, where Leo Rautins (Andy's father) tipped in the winner with 0:03 on the clock at the Dome. My whole family still resides there and are all season ticket-holding crazies and my father still makes the annual trek to Manhattan to enjoy the tournament (with occassional detours to AC, of course). Anyways, I'm a tad sleep deprived this morning and giddy over the big win. Two more to go. Another 9 o'clocker tonight.

I was all set to blog on the Derby preps last night, but the game just overthrew that notion. I did sneak a peak at the four main prep BRIS PP's (after negotiating through the trainer sites at the TBA homepage - bottom right hand corner). It is a huge weekend for the EquiSpace R2R stable with four horses live (Old Fashioned, Patena, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesen Fire) for me. I think the most intriguing races are the Louisiana Derby and the Tampa Bay Derby. I'm thinking Old Fashioned and PoTN will run off with their respective races, but the other two look much more interesting from a betting perspective. Three horses that have my attention in the La Derby are Patena, Papa Clem and Terrain (who emerges after a disappointing fifth in the Delta Jackpot). Raf Bejarano selected Papa Clem over New Bay (picks up Talamo) who will be running at his home track in the San Felipe for Richard Mandella and owner B. Wayne Hughes, always a telling angle. Late Saturday afternoon will be a fun time this weekend. More on the TB Derby tomorrow.

The second Derby futures pool is open until Sunday night, on that note I'm disappointed Big Drama is off the trail, I hope to see him down the line at the Spa this summer. Speaking of the Derby, it looks like they will be adding another race to both the Oaks and Derby cards, which makes for a rather long day. It's nice that the Oaks has partnered with the Cure, a rather positive development and positive news for our sport and a great cause.

I didn't get to watch the allowance race at Oaklawn yesterday afternoon featuring last year's 3yo Eclipse champion Proud Spell (see firewall post), but was obtain updates through my fellow twitterers while watching the Live Odds at the DRF. Whenever a big favorite is running (especially after a layoff like Proud Spell) I look for the negative show pool, which occurred as she took $118K of the $127K show pool. Hoping maybe she'd run out of the money I sprinkled a few bucks on the second through fourth choices, only to break even. Will keep trying, Old Fashioned will probably attract the bridgejumpers again this weekend, but not sure he will fall off the board in this one.

Make sure you pick up your race cards for this weekends preps at DRF, using the special TBA code (found in the middle of the homepage - see Formulator ad above the 3yo filly division standings) where you can grab 10 cards for the low, low, low (dare I say rollback?) price of $10. I'll be trying Formulator this weekend for the first time and am looking forward to it.

Wassup Around the TBA

Tweet Lots happening over at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, of which yours truly is a proud-standing member thereof.

First off, after the PP censorship came down late last week, we have your answer via DRF Formulator. Now, mind you, I am looking forward to trying this out myself (even though I am a twinspires.com member who can get the BRIS pp's for free). We have struck a fabulous deal for our TBA readers. You can pick up 10 cards for $10 by using the special TBA code found on the homepage. Check it out before the big prep weekend! DRF Formulator is now a welcomed sponsor of the TBA's 3yo Filly Divison (see TBA Standings on the left sidebar).

Secondly, the TBA's R2R Group (see R2R tab on the homepage and current standings at the bottom of the page) is off an running a month into the prep races. Handride has a nice recap of how things are shaking out and us bloggers need to pick up the pieces this weekend.

The group donated a handsome sum last year to Old Friends Retirement in the name of our Horse of the Year, Zenyatta. In addition to TwinSpires and DRF, we welcome OCD Pellets as our new sponsor of the 3yo Colt Division. We've had a spot in the BloodHorse Blog Stable since October where you can find many of the group's best blog posts. Check 'em out!

The Twitter and Twackle waves are full of TBA bloggers and we have our own feed (pick it up here), be sure to grab it to grab the latest links to our posts.

The Paulick Derby Index (poll includes 6 TBA bloggers) is out and as expected, a big jump up by I Want Revenge into the cleanup spot. I'm really looking forward to Chocolate Candy squaring off against Pioneerof the Nile this weekend in the San Felipe, should be a dandy.

Things have been very busy around the Space Ranch lately so after I initially laughed at LATG's wanting one of "those road to the triple crown guest blogger dudes..." comment, I went ahead and signed up my pal, JB, an excellent handicapper in his own right. JB was last seen on Belmont Day making a guest appearance in the background of Triumph the Insult Comic Dog's jaunt around the park. I won't give him away, but he's seen watching the monitors during one of the races rooting home is favorite sprinter J be K. He'll be guest blogging from time to time with his thoughts on the road to Louisville...looking forward to it as he is a real student of the game.

Rolling through Farch

Tweet You know Farch, the time of year when February and March kinda blend together here on the East Coast. The Space Gal and I. after a few cocktails, thought we could create a new holiday to be celebrated every February 29th honoring Farch. We figured we could throw a bash to benefit some charitable organization. The key word there was "after a few cocktails." We did help organize a party last year, but the organizers freaked out when I had the inset ad put in a local rag, as they thought too many people would show up. She was wrong and the party sucked. Maybe we'll resurrect it in another 3 years. Anyways, I thought I'd share after watching the prep races and the weather drop 30 degrees yesterday after a quick thaw. Happy Farch.

It sure was nice watching the sunshine at Gulfstream and Santa Anita today thinking it sure would be nice being there to enjoy it. I'll bet Quality Road moves up on a few lists this week, even though he's not nominated to the Triple Crown (why wouldn't his connections nominate him.., isn't that puzzling?). He had one lone solitary vote in the Paulick Derby Index through week two, which appears to have been a vote during week one as none of the pollsters listed QR in last week's top ten. Hmm. No sight him of over at the experts at kentuckyderby.com which features four writers. I did note that Beethoven was charging late and will need to watch it again to see if we can make more of this as the race was shortened to a mile...

On the other coast, the chalk was the story as the big grapefruit, The Pamplemousse, romped home over east coast shipper Take the Points, thwarting Garret Gomez from taking his fifth victory of the day. Shouldn't the grapefruit be running in Florida? Anyways, the big question will be whether he can handle the real stuff come Derby Day. He can handle the Pro-Ride without question as he put this field away pretty handily. It appears he and Pioneerof the Nile are not on a collision course as the P will probably point to the SA Derby and PotN is slated to go in the San Felipe (G2) in two weeks. Ah, how the synth plays a factor in reading this Derby puzzle.

Kobe screwed me last night with his beautiful 10-31 shooting performance.....I was sitting with 10 straight wins in ESPN's Streak for the Cash ($1M if you select 27 straight)...my Lakers selection ended my best skein to date. Geoff Ogilvy picked me back up this afternoon with 2 wins....one good thing about this contest is you can pick 4 games/day on the weekends and maybe 3 during the week. It's damn hard though...oh well. That's why they call it gambling.

Can Racing Generate America's Next Great Hero?

Tweet I'm thinking the timing is right.

A-Rod (I refuse to call him A-Fraud) is campaigning for forgiveness for taking performance-enhancing drugs. Michael Phelps has potentially lost millions for his recent appearance with that piece of equipment that rhymes with "wrong". The NFL is a daily police blotter, this week alone, Marshawn Lynch, Ahmad Bradshaw and Super Bowl winning kicker Jeff Reed were in the news for being on the wrong side of the law (and the law won). Lest we forget to mention what Michael Vick has done to his fans. How 'bout the Plaxico fiasco? Basketball is not exactly unscathed, I've run out of fingers to count the number of paternity suits currently pending. The closest we can come to the Great American Hero out of the four majors is Lebron James, and we'll see what the King does to his hometown Cleveland when the Big Apple comes a callin'.

So with all of the bad news out there in sports lately, isn't the timing perfect for a horse to capture a nation and propel our sport back on the front pages? The question we face annually, is whether there is a horse out there that can corral the Triple Crown, one of the most challenging feats out there over a timeframe from May 2nd to June 6th. When I googled "Triple Crown Hero", the horses who show up, first and foremost, are Secretariat, Affirmed and Seattle Slew. Horses that did the trick back in the 70's. So who is it? Old Fashioned? Not sure he can go the mile and a quarter, especially if he gets hooked into another speed duel up front (highly likely) in Louisville. What about one of the SoCal horses (The Pamplemousse, Pioneerof the Nile or Chocolate Candy)?

How about a jockey? When I googled hero above, the only jock that showed up was Stevie Cauthen. That's right, the 1977 Sportsman of the Year who has four SI covers under his belt. Can you believe it's been 32 years? With the new Animal Planet series bringing jockeys to the forefront of reality television, is there any chance a jockey can capture the hero role this year? Garret Gomez will most likely be on Pioneerofthe Nile for Bob Baffert, can the two time Eclipse winner grab the spotlight by winning his first Derby? Last year Desormeaux and Big Brown had it within reach, only to pull up short, but the major sports weren't on the downer they are mired in the controversy they are in today.

The Vacancy light is ON, I just hope, for our sports sake, there's a horse or jock out there that flips the switch. Whaddya think?

Nothing better than Chocolate on V-Day

Tweet I have the best wife ever. She knows the way to my heart....she gave me the commemorative Kentucky Derby 135 glasses (see inset) and this year's super cool Kentucky Festival poster for the big day this year. Add in a little April trip to Keeneland after tax season and wah-lah...wife of the year honors are hers.

How good is it that EquiSpace R2R stable homeboy Chocolate Candy wins on Valentine's Day at Golden Gate Fields in the El Camino (G3) at 9 furlongs! He's a son of Candy Ride out of Seattle Slew mare Crownette who padded his graded stakes earnings in his shot at a starting gate on the First Saturday in May. I've had the watch on him ever since his 3rd place showing in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood where he closed late after being four wide on the turn to finish only 1 1/2 lengths behind Pioneerof the Nile and 1/2 length behind I Want Revenge. The last time a Derby threat emerged from this race was 1996 winner Cavonnier, who finished second in that year's Derby to Grindstone. Of course, Candy's future odds have dipped to 28-1, wherein they were north of 50-1 yesterday.

Speaking of futures, we'll take a look later this afternoon before 6pm to see if anything whets my taste. It's probably too early and risky at this juncture, but a couple $2 fliers may be in order. Big Drama, Candy and West Side Bernie are sentimental picks that if they stay upwards to 40-1 or so, it may be worth a shot.

Only watched three races live yesterday due to work and visiting in-laws, but was able to see the Sam F. Davis and watched by Public Handicapper selection AP Cardinal go out in fast fractions only to back up in the stretch. Ugh. It was one of those races I wished I had watched some earlier races, as they showed General Quarters last two races on TVG, both my father-in-law and I both said, wow that horse was closing fast at a shorter distance. Sometimes it pays to do your homework. I liked Cardinal's pedigree and the way he looked to be moving forward in his training. Oh well, he's not the first AP colt that's burned me.

Took a tough beat in the Hallandale Beach with Lime Rickey, who was closing fast but ran out of track. Lastly my Santa Maria Handicap selection Visit finished sixth as the favorite. She had never run on the fake stuff (rookie mistake), I was a little too trusting in Frankel's instincts, although Gomez looked to get boxed in and couldn't rally from the back of the pack.

Today it's off to frame shop to pick up a copy of the super cool lifesize poster collage of Curlin, sent to me by big Curlin Libby, who presented a similar copy to the Jacksons. It includes two blog posts, one by Kevin of Aspiring Horseplayer and yours truly, numerous action pictures of Curlin, tons of fans signatures and notes from Curlin fans. I have a special spot for it on the wall in my office that's been bare for a couple weeks....thanks again Libby for including me in that special tribute.

Arbitrary Inference

Tweet - I may be making an arbitrary inference here, but did someone forget to hit the spacebar when they registered Pioneerof the Nile at the Jockey Club? It's driving me crazy every time I see it and I don't think I can stand it through the whole Road to the Roses Derby trail. There, it's off my chest. Whew. He starts next in the Robert B. Lewis this weekend at Santa Anita if you'll be rooting against him with me. Not that I want to start a bargument about the spelling of a horse's name, but I just can't let it go.

- I'm bummed about Saratoga Sinner, who I hear is off the Derby trail, probably the first of many that will become infected with the injury bug. The 12-1 winner of the Holy Bull looked good to me on paper, with improving Beyers through his first few races, the red hot Julien Leparoux (he's becoming a fav of mine) aboard and a nice post position (4) last Saturday. Unfortunately my other three picks fell by the wayside, but I'm back to black numbers in the DRF contest.

- Speaking of The Jockey Club, neither Wilford Brimley (or Dinny Phipps for that matter) have shown up on my doorstep with briefcase in tow (or disguised with baby balloons), but then again, I've been laying low for a few days after learning that I could be a marked man. Can't touch this.

- I really enjoyed this Jay Cronley article in ESPN.com today. He provides a nice racing tip regarding fast works by firsters: "Each time I pick up a book or begin an article about horse racing, all I ask for is some insight, some foresight, one negotiable angle that might work more than half the time. Well, here's one: fast works, very fast works in general, and rocket-style works on a maiden first-time starter in particular. I have come to consider very fast works on young horses to be well worth avoiding. In the first place, works are usually done against air. In the next place, some are so fast as to qualify for a bounce. And almost always fast works are over-bet. Two things matter with a first-time starter, breeding, and trainer percentages with maidens. All you need from a maiden work is something good. Something too good is unworkable hindsight." I have fallen for those bullets, more than once.

- Ed DeRosa, news editor of the Thoroughbred Times, at the Thoroughbred Racing Association of North America annual meeting in Sin City makes an interesting observation in today's column: "The irony of this year’s conference being in Las Vegas is that participants will be unable to support the pari-mutuel pools at several major American racing circuits during their stay because of a disagreement between TrackNet Media and Las Vegas race books regarding signal fees."

- Anyone have anything to report (or point me towards a relevant post) on the Save the Belmont Train public hearing? Been out of the loop for a few days and could use a good compass.

- And, the biggest loser of office pools struck again on Sunday sitting chilly with the numbers 3,0 and needing an Arizona stop on the last drive to pass go and collect.....