JB Part Deux: Getting Closer

Tweet Today's guest post is the second of a four part series (I just made that up) from Saratoga Springs veteran handicapper JB who enters the Space Station for a recap of his thoughts as we progress down the road to Louisville. Thanks to JB for filling in for me while I'm searching for every last deduction...

With less 2 weeks 'til Tax day and 4 weeks until we hear a still smarting University of Louisville Marching Band play my "Old Kentucky Home" in front of a 150,000 plus at Churchill there have been major developments on the road to the roses. Quality Road fresh off a very professional performance in the Florida Derby has developed a quarter crack in his right hind hoof and, according to the most under the radar trainer in the business, James Jerkens, he is very concerned about QR's making it to the Derby. Looking back at QR's stylish 1 1/8 mile performance on a Gulfstream surface listed as fast he clearly established himself as a top tier contender who must be seriously considered by racetrackers preparing their Derby picks.

Todd Pletcher wasn't as impressed, claiming track maintenance staff worked the dirt course up to favor front running speed horses which favored the stalking QR and disadvantaged the closers. Dunkirk, Toddy's best hope for wearing a rose boutonniere in early May, is a closer. Anyone who witnessed the race had to be visually impressed with Dunkirk's sweeping move, Garrett Gomez up, inhaling all but one horse on the far turn. But he wasn't able to match QR down the stretch and settled for a disappointing place finish. I like Dunkirk and I believe his 150K in graded earnings will be enough to get him in the Derby field. But I'll be watching who Go Go choses to ride in the big race. That's because Bob Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile will be heading to the Bluegrass state as the reigning Santa Anita Derby champion. Although he was a handful (rating uncomfortably would be putting it mildly) he prevailed over a Pamplemousse-less field last Saturday to stake his claim as the west coast's finest. But not so fast. A closer examination of this nearly pace-less race reveals the emergence of a Giacomo-type runner who just might get the pace scenario he needs to have his photo taken under the twin spires. Chocolate Candy closed REALLY well despite not having a lot go his way. I will be doing more research and writing on this horse as the big day approaches.

Speaking of a big day, I Want Revenge's run in the Wood Memorial was the best demonstration of racing acuity by a 3yo in a major Derby prep in recent memory. WOW. Broke last by 4 lengths, relaxed and gained ground, started his move behind a wall of horses, sawed in half at the 1/8th pole, found a seem 5 wide in the middle (not traditionally the fastest part of the Big A oval) and prevailed after a vigorous handride. 19-year old Joe Talamo looked like Laffit Pincay. Nothing short of extraordinary. He is no doubt a deserving Morning Line Derby favorite, reinforced resoundingly by the bettors in Derby Pool #3.

Unfortunately, my Belmont horse, Imperial Council will not be going to the Derby after being up close and coming up empty under Edgar Prado to finish a winded 5th. Trainer Shug McGaughey stated that he knew he had his hands full after IC acted up terribly in the paddock. The paddock at Oaklawn is exactly where you'll find winterbook Derby favorite Old Fashioned being saddled under new rider Terry Thompson for this Saturday's Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominquez lost his mount after a disappointing second place finish in the Rebel. Cagey Larry Jones must be respected for this decision. However, if Fashioned doesn't rate and fire in his final prep, Papa Clem, fresh off a very game second place finish to Jones' Friesan Fire in the Lousiana Derby, will be ready to punch his ticket to Louisville via the Arkansas Derby express.

Speaking of express; there will be an express first class delivery from Dubai of two Godolphin 3yo's with a big upside. Regal Ransom and Desert Party come off a 1-2 finish in Dubai's 2 million prep for 3 year olds (the UAE Derby). These two colts, ridden by rising star Alan Garcia and world class Frankie Dettori, respectively, are both wildcards to most American handicappers, including this one. But Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum; the most powerful force in racing worldwide has made no secret of his quest to capture America's most prestigious race. Watch out! Speaking of watching out, watch out for a late blooming 3yo colt posting Derby type speed figs on his way to capturing two major prep races won by past Derby champions Street Sense (Tampa Bay Derby) and War Emblem (Illinois Derby - h/t Wind Gatherer). Musket Man still might not be getting the respect he deserves, maybe because he's faced lighter caliber competition on less notable tracks, but with a little racing luck and a good post position he's versatile and fresh enough to be a factor on Derby Day.

JB's Derby Baker's Half Dozen plus 1:
1. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance commands respect
2. Friesan Fire - Hard Spun ran 2nd off a 6 week lay-off
3. Dunkirk - My gut says there's more
4. Pioneerof the Nile - Can he do it on dirt?
5. Old Fashioned - Best value in pool #3
6. Chocolate Candy - Good enough to pull off an upset
7. Musket Man - "Best chance ever for me in the Derby," Coa
Ones to watch: Regal Ransom, Desert Party

Dropping from JB's Derby Baker's Half +1:
Quality Road - Hind right hoof injury can't be good
The Pamplemousse - Leg injury puts him on the sidelines
Imperial Council - Would've loved to see Shug saddle one in the Derby

Huge Hour of Racing Tomorrow

Tweet Covered over at the Crist blog are the five Grade I races going off between 5pm and 6pm EST tomorrow, including three HUGE Derby preps, the Illinois, the Wood and the Santa Anita. If you're watching or playing from home you'll have to have a quick trigger finger....if I've got it correctly it looks like TVG (Ashland at Keeneland) to NBC (Illinois Derby at Hawthorne) to MSG+ (Wood Memorial at Aqueduct) to HRTV (Skip Away at Gulfstream) back to NBC (Santa Anita Derby at SA) back to MSG+ (Carter Handicap at Aqueduct) back to HRTV (Apple Blosson at Oaklawn Park). Whew...that's some work right there. Good news that MSG+ will be also broadcasting five Saturdays from the Spa this summer!

Some quick picks for the Derby preps (free PP's at the TBA homepage):

Illinois Derby. I like Giant Oak to step forward in this one (will HAW have the track souped this year?) he's definitely bred for the distance. Nowhere to Hide was caught wide in the TB Derby and is his third race off a layoff. I'll try and beat Musket Man with these two, but should round out the trifecta. Longshot: Al Khali.

Wood Memorial. Guessing it's going to be wet tomorrow at the Big A (if it's anything like what's going on this side of the state) just like last year when Tale of Ekati won it in the slop. Going with the upset here. Lime Rickey, a Lemon Drop Kid with Javier up is going turf to dirt with good slop pedigree...his connections have him in here for a reason. Imperial Council will probably take quite a bit at the windows and will be an underlay, he needs the graded stakes money to qualify for the Derby so it'll be all out for this one. Lord Justice decided to stay east instead of going to Hawthorne and has some decent off track numbers (including a win). At least you can't say I'm not chalky playing against I Want Revenge who drew the rail with west coast rider Joe Talamo.

Santa Anita Derby. I think The P-Mousse is the real deal and will handle Chocolate Candy and Pioneerof the Nile easier than people think. I'm a Candy fan, but I think he's overmatched against the Mousse, even with the outside draw.

I had a decent contest day today at Keeneland picking 3 winners in the last 4 races (losing with Tweeter of all horses). My best winner being Heart of a King ($28.40) in the eighth. In real betting, we made a gigantic $2.95 (hey a positive day is a good day!). I like the $0.50 trifectas bets. Was rooting for one of Roman Ruler's first offspring, Supraman, in the second, who faded to fifth. I was a big Ruler fan and look forward to keeping an eye on more that he's sired. Boy, it sure looked cold there today, glad I'm not going til the end of the meet, hopefully it'll warm up by then.

Enjoy the big hour tomorrow and make sure your clicking hand is nimble.

Wassup Around the TBA

Tweet Lots happening over at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, of which yours truly is a proud-standing member thereof.

First off, after the PP censorship came down late last week, we have your answer via DRF Formulator. Now, mind you, I am looking forward to trying this out myself (even though I am a twinspires.com member who can get the BRIS pp's for free). We have struck a fabulous deal for our TBA readers. You can pick up 10 cards for $10 by using the special TBA code found on the homepage. Check it out before the big prep weekend! DRF Formulator is now a welcomed sponsor of the TBA's 3yo Filly Divison (see TBA Standings on the left sidebar).

Secondly, the TBA's R2R Group (see R2R tab on the homepage and current standings at the bottom of the page) is off an running a month into the prep races. Handride has a nice recap of how things are shaking out and us bloggers need to pick up the pieces this weekend.

The group donated a handsome sum last year to Old Friends Retirement in the name of our Horse of the Year, Zenyatta. In addition to TwinSpires and DRF, we welcome OCD Pellets as our new sponsor of the 3yo Colt Division. We've had a spot in the BloodHorse Blog Stable since October where you can find many of the group's best blog posts. Check 'em out!

The Twitter and Twackle waves are full of TBA bloggers and we have our own feed (pick it up here), be sure to grab it to grab the latest links to our posts.

The Paulick Derby Index (poll includes 6 TBA bloggers) is out and as expected, a big jump up by I Want Revenge into the cleanup spot. I'm really looking forward to Chocolate Candy squaring off against Pioneerof the Nile this weekend in the San Felipe, should be a dandy.

Things have been very busy around the Space Ranch lately so after I initially laughed at LATG's wanting one of "those road to the triple crown guest blogger dudes..." comment, I went ahead and signed up my pal, JB, an excellent handicapper in his own right. JB was last seen on Belmont Day making a guest appearance in the background of Triumph the Insult Comic Dog's jaunt around the park. I won't give him away, but he's seen watching the monitors during one of the races rooting home is favorite sprinter J be K. He'll be guest blogging from time to time with his thoughts on the road to Louisville...looking forward to it as he is a real student of the game.

Can Racing Generate America's Next Great Hero?

Tweet I'm thinking the timing is right.

A-Rod (I refuse to call him A-Fraud) is campaigning for forgiveness for taking performance-enhancing drugs. Michael Phelps has potentially lost millions for his recent appearance with that piece of equipment that rhymes with "wrong". The NFL is a daily police blotter, this week alone, Marshawn Lynch, Ahmad Bradshaw and Super Bowl winning kicker Jeff Reed were in the news for being on the wrong side of the law (and the law won). Lest we forget to mention what Michael Vick has done to his fans. How 'bout the Plaxico fiasco? Basketball is not exactly unscathed, I've run out of fingers to count the number of paternity suits currently pending. The closest we can come to the Great American Hero out of the four majors is Lebron James, and we'll see what the King does to his hometown Cleveland when the Big Apple comes a callin'.

So with all of the bad news out there in sports lately, isn't the timing perfect for a horse to capture a nation and propel our sport back on the front pages? The question we face annually, is whether there is a horse out there that can corral the Triple Crown, one of the most challenging feats out there over a timeframe from May 2nd to June 6th. When I googled "Triple Crown Hero", the horses who show up, first and foremost, are Secretariat, Affirmed and Seattle Slew. Horses that did the trick back in the 70's. So who is it? Old Fashioned? Not sure he can go the mile and a quarter, especially if he gets hooked into another speed duel up front (highly likely) in Louisville. What about one of the SoCal horses (The Pamplemousse, Pioneerof the Nile or Chocolate Candy)?

How about a jockey? When I googled hero above, the only jock that showed up was Stevie Cauthen. That's right, the 1977 Sportsman of the Year who has four SI covers under his belt. Can you believe it's been 32 years? With the new Animal Planet series bringing jockeys to the forefront of reality television, is there any chance a jockey can capture the hero role this year? Garret Gomez will most likely be on Pioneerofthe Nile for Bob Baffert, can the two time Eclipse winner grab the spotlight by winning his first Derby? Last year Desormeaux and Big Brown had it within reach, only to pull up short, but the major sports weren't on the downer they are mired in the controversy they are in today.

The Vacancy light is ON, I just hope, for our sports sake, there's a horse or jock out there that flips the switch. Whaddya think?

Nothing better than Chocolate on V-Day

Tweet I have the best wife ever. She knows the way to my heart....she gave me the commemorative Kentucky Derby 135 glasses (see inset) and this year's super cool Kentucky Festival poster for the big day this year. Add in a little April trip to Keeneland after tax season and wah-lah...wife of the year honors are hers.

How good is it that EquiSpace R2R stable homeboy Chocolate Candy wins on Valentine's Day at Golden Gate Fields in the El Camino (G3) at 9 furlongs! He's a son of Candy Ride out of Seattle Slew mare Crownette who padded his graded stakes earnings in his shot at a starting gate on the First Saturday in May. I've had the watch on him ever since his 3rd place showing in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood where he closed late after being four wide on the turn to finish only 1 1/2 lengths behind Pioneerof the Nile and 1/2 length behind I Want Revenge. The last time a Derby threat emerged from this race was 1996 winner Cavonnier, who finished second in that year's Derby to Grindstone. Of course, Candy's future odds have dipped to 28-1, wherein they were north of 50-1 yesterday.

Speaking of futures, we'll take a look later this afternoon before 6pm to see if anything whets my taste. It's probably too early and risky at this juncture, but a couple $2 fliers may be in order. Big Drama, Candy and West Side Bernie are sentimental picks that if they stay upwards to 40-1 or so, it may be worth a shot.

Only watched three races live yesterday due to work and visiting in-laws, but was able to see the Sam F. Davis and watched by Public Handicapper selection AP Cardinal go out in fast fractions only to back up in the stretch. Ugh. It was one of those races I wished I had watched some earlier races, as they showed General Quarters last two races on TVG, both my father-in-law and I both said, wow that horse was closing fast at a shorter distance. Sometimes it pays to do your homework. I liked Cardinal's pedigree and the way he looked to be moving forward in his training. Oh well, he's not the first AP colt that's burned me.

Took a tough beat in the Hallandale Beach with Lime Rickey, who was closing fast but ran out of track. Lastly my Santa Maria Handicap selection Visit finished sixth as the favorite. She had never run on the fake stuff (rookie mistake), I was a little too trusting in Frankel's instincts, although Gomez looked to get boxed in and couldn't rally from the back of the pack.

Today it's off to frame shop to pick up a copy of the super cool lifesize poster collage of Curlin, sent to me by big Curlin Libby, who presented a similar copy to the Jacksons. It includes two blog posts, one by Kevin of Aspiring Horseplayer and yours truly, numerous action pictures of Curlin, tons of fans signatures and notes from Curlin fans. I have a special spot for it on the wall in my office that's been bare for a couple weeks....thanks again Libby for including me in that special tribute.

Futurama

Tweet Derby Future Pool #1 opens up tomorrow and runs through Sunday. The past performances are now available and can be found here. Betting into the first pool is risky as so much can happen between now and the First Saturday in May, injuries, non-qualifiers, etc. Last year's Pool #1 did not include Big Brown, thus the All Other 3yo category was the winning bet at 3-1. He also was excluded from Pool #2 and the All Other category paid 6-1 (not bad)....he was included in Pool #3 and ended up being the favorite and paid out at 3-1. This year's Pool #2 will be the weekend of March 12-15 and Pool #3 is slated for April 2-5.

In a new twist, during the second pool wagering, a Derby Exacta Future will be offered at a $2 minimum bet. I give them credit for trying to come up with a new idea to try and generate some early betting interests on the Road to the Roses.

Looking at the morning lines, there are some interesting lines to start out... Old Fashioned and Capt. Candyman Can the morning line favorites at 10-1. All Other 3yos starts out at 5-2 and will be a line to watch. Filly Stardom Bound is included in the Future Pool at 12-1. I'll take a peek at the odds sometime Sunday afternoon before the pools close to see if anything interests me. I'm a Chocolate Candy (50-1) and Big Drama (30-1) fan, but either would be purely a sentimental selection.

Speaking of the Road to the Roses, the TBA has a league set up, join up with the info you can find here. As of tonight, there are 25 entrants in our league, including yours truly. Join today.