Mayday Mayday - Deluge in the Downs?

Tweet Luckily (no pun intended) that wasn't the theme song for today's wagering activities and we came out unscathed after a somewhat tedious start (see Rachel Alexandra single in P6 and multiple P3's). We righted the plane with a nice P3 sequence of Lou Brissie (Ky Juvenile)-Silver Timber (CD Turf Sprint)-Arson Squad (Alysheba), that put is in the black for the day, escaping barely. We're not exactly dancing around the may pole, but the ADW account came away unscathed and is loaded for bear tomorrow. Evening Jewel messed up my Oaks tri (and almost a number of other things), but it was an exciting race ending in a photo with the champion filly Blind Luck winning the head bob.

So I figured I would document this week's race of the week. It's that one they run every year in Louisville sponsored by the Colonel. Once again we have to deal what could be the Deluge in the Downs and a sloppy track for our sport's biggest two minutes of the year. I wasn't as good as I promised last week (going dark..yeah right) and the Knights of Columbus site just wasn't kicking it for me. I'm not exactly a handicapping guru, my last few Derby selections have been Afleet Alex (2005), Lawyer Ron (2006), Hard Spun (2007), Z Fortune (2008) and Friesan Fire (2009) last year. That's 0 for the 1st saturday in May for those scoring at home, so take these at face value. Here goes, from the man armed with the spreadsheet of doom.....

1. Super Saver. I dunno, can anyone really let Calvin beat you with on the rail in the slop. Of course this will be the year someone shuts him off on the rail (since I picked him). Law of averages is with Pletcher. High wet Tomlinson (412), Maria's Mon (his sire) has sired a Derby winner (Monarchos), has the A.P. Indy blood (damsire - can get the distance). Third off the layoff on the form cycle (love this angle). Sire has 18% mud winners in 864 off track starts and damsire 20% in 770 starts. While he didn't win a prep, he won here last year in the Ky Juvie and it's what you think they can do with the extra furlong that counts. So what's not to like? My apologies to the connections, but maybe I got one in me here.

2. Ice Box. Dead closer. Good work in the slop. The only thing that scares me is the inactivity (6 weeks) since his Florida Derby wire win. Jose Lezcano has beat me more times than any jockey in NY. You know what they say, "if you can't beat em..." Solid wet Tomlinson, hot pace could favor this one coming late to pick up the pieces, and decent mud pedigree stats (18% mud winners in 464 starts by sire, Pulpit). Pulpit finished 4th in the 1997 Derby even while suffering an injury during the race to his hind leg. Damsire Tabasco Cat finished sixth in the Derby and his dam, Spice Island was a Grade 2 winner. The Florida Derby winner has been solid last 10 years (Monarchos, Empire Maker, Barbaro, Big Brown, Quality Road). Including in my top four.

3. Lookin at Lucky. Convinced me in November at Oak Tree, in finishing second in the BC Juvie from the 13 post going 8 (yep, 8) wide around the first turn, that he is the real deal. Probably the best colt in the race. The rail has had only 1 winner in the last 40 years and the ITM% is only 13%. The ITM% is ranked tied for 15th out of all post positions in the last 40 years with only posts 6, 7, 11, 17 and 19 with worse percentages. Tons of pressure on Gomez, who hasn't exactly lit up the Classics in his career, but this colt is too good not to hit the board. Still including him in my top four on talent alone.

4. Dublin. He's really my Derby horse, but he's been on the Space Bubble all week in and out of my top four. I am on the D. Wayne bandwagon and would love to see him win here. Again, I looked at what I think he can do at 10 panels and I like everything but the post position (ironically he's right where Lawyer Ron was). I loved his daddy (Afleet Alex) who was good in the slop (and his progeny are starting off the same way - 25% winners in 44 starters). What can you say about his damsire, Mr. Prospector, that hasn't already been said, siring one winner of each of the Triple Crown races (Fusaichi Pegasus -2000 Derby, Tank's Prospect - 1985 Preakness and Conquistador Cielo - 1982 Belmont). A feat his grandson, Unbridled has also accomplished.

So I'll be using combinations of those four in my exotics and will include such horses as Awesome Act and Sidney's Candy underneath them. But as Mine That Bird showed us last year, anything can happen. Hopefully my ADW account won't be screaming Mayday around 6:28pm tomorrow evening. Good luck everyone, have a great May Day.

Oakey Dokey Smokey

Tweet It's finally here....Oaks Day and the anticipation to get this weekend started is over. We'll be spending the early afternoon with handicapper extraordinaire GG down at the Wehrle OTB (a time honored tradition unlike any other) to have some lunch and play the ponies and catch Rachel's payback race. You know what they say about payback. Look out, little Z, she's a'comin.

I took a look at the Oaks card last evening and while I think Blind Luck is the creme de le creme, I think there are three horses that I'll be boxing in a trifecta with her: It's Tea Time, coming off a game effort in the Ashland at Keeneland; Tidal Pool with Mr. Churchill (Borel) in the irons after two nice Beyers; and Amen Hallelujah, a horse I've been following closely who was last beaten by Devil May Care at GP, who will be in gate 11 in the big one on Saturday. The other horse that scares me in here and if I play a $0.50'er I'll throw her in underneath in the 3rd spot is Champagne d'Oro, a Medaglia d'Oro who has a couple solid outings to her credit and looks to be maturing for trainer Eric Guillot.

As promised we have a cast of characters (under their aliases) agreed to contribute their Derby thoughts to this post and we'll give the boys (and Gal) their due as loyal readers to this blog.....

First up, the infamous JB, who you can find under the trees at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes day, 'cappin away with his boys and picking winners like no other...

Geno: Thanks for the invitation to participate. I must admit I haven't spent a ton of time preparing for this year's race. Here are my thoughts: (1) Look at the smaller horses in the field. Small hoofs and a light frame are a deadly combination over a slick Churchill surface (see Mine that Bird). (2) Watch the races earlier in the day. If the rail is the fastest part of the track (and it usually is at a soggy Churchill) look closely at post positions and for regular Churchill riders to take advantage of it. (3) Look for horses washed out in the paddock or post parade. Some horses really feel the pressure of the day. (4) Examine each horses last workout at Churchill Downs. If a horse is bred for the distance and lights up the Mike Welsch's watch -- watch out. (5) Look for jockey's who've ridden their horse on a regular basis.

Horses: Lookin at Lucky - most likely to hit the board in a wide open race. Baffert must be respected. Awesome Act - jockey due for a breakthrough performance. Should have plenty of pace to run into. Noble's Promise - Almost took down Lucky in Arkansas. Throw out last race. Dublin - Very consistent. Everything points to a career performance. Super Saver - This horse reminds me of Bluegrass Cat who ran second to Barbaro at 31-1. Discreetly Mine - Decent 2yo form. Just a hunch.

Next up is my boy, Wack, hailing from Lancaster, NY and as good a 'capper as they come. You may remember, Wack asked me a year ago today about the wet Tomlinson numbers in this blog and it has become part of his regular vocabulary.....here he goes....

Gotta love when JB prefaces his take with "I must admit I haven't spent a ton of time preparing for this year's race. Here are my thoughts," and then writes a 2 paragraph blog that was better than most articles I've read (except the always top notch shit on equispace.blogspot.com). My thoughts are as usual, much simpler. I'm betting that a 0:45 and change opening half-mile burns up most of the speedballs, i.e. Sidney's Candy, Line of David, Conveyance. To a lesser degree American Lion and Discreetly Mine. Also included in this pack should be horses like Jackson Bend and Paddy O'Prado. With that said, my Derby exacta, will be Ice Box closing from waaay back and Super Saver, who has the pedigree to be close enough to the early lead and still hang at the wire. If I box a tri, I'm still not including Lucky from the rail or Sidney's Candy - just a hunch. Probably would include Awesome Act to be ITM.

We'll give Crazy Joe Davoli the spotlight next, hailing from smallBany and part of the Obviously NY Stables group who own the impressive Canadian Ballet and Mother Russia racehorses. Crazy Joe says....

Derby bombs away with the two favorites drawing horrible post positions. I'll take Baffert speed any day on any ticket so it's Conveyance with improving stalkers Super Saver and Awesome Act. IRS Ticket!!!!!

Next up is another Capital District hometown boy, Jazzy Jeff, a big fan of ONY and a cool fellah to hang with at the track and Siro's afterwards....cashes big tickets...and is calling for the three-peat!

Here goes - 3 entries: (1) American Lion - Good for the distance. Like the bullet this week for readiness. They have worked him in good company all year. This horse seems well trained for a variety of pace outcomes. In the end, I like the Musket Man analogies, not just coming out of the Illinois Derby, but in other ways he and his connections seem to mirror the way that horse came in last year and performed so brilliantly in the Triple Crown Series. (2) Awesome Act - I get a sense of navigating toward this spot. Willing to throw out the Wood as slow and take a disproportionate degree of encouragement out of a faster Gotham, where he handled traffic so well (key for this 20 horse pile-up) -- and, I think the 98 could become a 106 and that might be all it takes. Something tells me this guy might have the best career of them all. (3) Super Saver - I could go on about value, and that he ran so strong in November at Churchill, blah, blah, blah. But, the reality is I settle on this colt for Jockey reasons, almost alone. Few seem to have the resolve, gambler's guts, overall fortitude and plain calmness to ride tight on the corners and save ground in this race the way that Calvin does it, and this makes him a contender in the Derby regardless of mount. I don't know if the Red Sea will part for Bo-"Rail" the way it did when he was up on Street Sense, or if he is on a ride that will charge like the Bird did from last to first in the stretch last year. But, I think he just might make a run at 3 in a row if there is any speed whatsoever in the first 6 furlongs.

My longtime pal, Dr. No, from the B-lo is on the clock next, he has one of the smoothest golf swings around and has been known to capture a W-2G more frequently than not...Dr. No is still hoping trainer James Bond will someday get a horse into the Derby...

In the Derby...... Lookin at Lucky looks so good. I will play one saver with Super Saver. Ice Box fills out my tri. Thanks again and good luck.

My beloved Space Gal (who has a killer RttR stable) didn't want to be left out so she is going to put her two dimes in (she's much more expensive than two cents).....but she won't give us any analysis other than verbal, so I took down this interview with her during a commercial...

I just used "speed scores, routers, jockeys and trainers." The Smith and Talamo selections are solely based on the show, Jockeys. Plus I've learned whenever I pick against my favorite jockeys, I lose. And right now, I'm too busy watching the Housewives to write my own blurb for your ridiculous blog. 1. Sidney's Candy 2. Devil May Care 3. Paddy O'Prado 4. Jackson Bend

Sending in his annual Derby email is GG (who I'll spend a few hours with today in the bar at the Wehrle OTB) and I see he's back to his 2005 trifecta strategy (he boxed Giacomo and Afleet Alex and caught the 71-1 Closing Argument with the ALL button). I still have the email that he sent me before the 05 Derby that says "save this email for evidence!" GG shares his thoughts with us.....

Geno, GG with my opinion on The Kentucky Derby. What a difference it makes seeing this race on paper. The first thing I like to do in the derby is to cut the race from a 20 horse field by eliminating horses that in my opinion can't hit the board. This includes Stately Victor6, Deans Kitten8, Paddy10, Devil11, Mission14, Backtalk18 and Homeboy19. The race has come up with a ton of speed and I think the only one you can keep in is Super Saver4 and that is only because I think Borel will try to keep him off the pace and come up the rail with his typical move. I am taking out all other speed because this looks like a battle that none of them can withstand. This includes Line Of David5, American Lion7, Conveyance12, Discreetly15, Sidney's Candy20. I now have an eight horse field which makes things a little more manageable. Lookin at Lucky1 looks good, but this is no day to play the favorite and the rail will hurt. If you like him, how can you not use Noble's Promise3, as he runs with him every time and Martinez rides him quite well. This crowd will not bet Willie so he will be a price. Jackson Bend13 is 9 for 9 hitting the board and I like that he is a closer. Ice Box2 is a closer and had a great work in the slop and I really like Dublin17 to hit the board. That leaves Awesome Act16 and Make Music9 who I will only use in 2nd and 3rd. I dont think they can win, but Rosario can hit board on 9 and he is quite capable. Ok, so what to do with it? I have an 8 horse field that I will play tris with. I will box Lookin at Lucky1 and Dublin17 with 2, 3, 4,9, 13, 16. I might do the same with Noble's Promise3 and box him with Dublin and Lucky with these horses. These are my top 3. Good Luck. The funny thing this year as that the name players don't have many choices. Did you notice that the only name horses this year are Sidney, David, Dean and Kris? ~GG

The Space Bro, never one to lecture on any topic gave us this to ponder...

The 136th Run for the Roses that is sponsored by YUM Brands! So why not Sidney’s Candy? The Craig Family’s favorite colt will start from the outside and bring home the sweet victory! Followed closely by one of the four Pletcher entries, the filly Devil May Care in 2nd. I have a feeling Lookin at Lucky will get squeezed early and make a late charge for 3rd.

That's it for now....if I receive something from the Puma and the Saratoga Resident, we'll update this bad boy....thanks all for reading and participating....feel free to throw in a comment. Whodoyoulike?

Mt. Rushmore of Trainers?

Tweet If there was a Mt. Rushmore for current trainers, I think this is what it would look like (other than the lousy photoshop job). These four trainers, Baffert (2), Lukas (1), Zito (2) and Pletcher (4) have a combined 9 entries in the starting gates on Saturday....pretty scary.

In other blog related news, the final Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen has been posted along with selections for the projected caboose of the race. Check them out over here.

Pat Patten of the Handride blog is the TBA's featured handicapper this week over at ThoroFan and he takes a look at the Pick 3 into the Derby, be sure to check it out over at Handicapper's Corner.

You can check out the TBA and other bloggers' selections for the weekend races in a little contest we have going over at the TBA homepage.

A couple of my pals jumped the gun and gave me some picks for the Oaks so I'll post them here also....the first is from GG, hailing from Amherst, NY (he of the winning $133K 2005 Derby trifecta = so pay attention).....here's who he likes tomorrow:

Geno, I am just going to do what I love the most and that is to handicap the races and post my plays. I am going to start with the Friday card and see how it ends. If I embarrass myself I will hide on Saturday. I am going to play the pick 4's from the 2nd and 4th. The one from the 2nd for 50 cents goes 1 7 9 11/3 6 10 12/6 8 11/4 11. This costs $48 and could pay pretty well. The one from the 4th - 7th looks a little chalky, but I really like it and have a play-down ticket to slam into. Pick 4 starting with Race 4 goes 6 8 11/4 11/4(Rachel)/6 7 9. My play down goes 8 11/4 11/4/9. This begins at 12:05pm so don't forget the early post. If I am on and Churchill has a carryover in the pick 6, I will then play this. It starts at 1:26pm in the 6th race and I love the fact that it starts with Rachel in the 6th, and ends with Blind Luck in the Oaks. To me this becomes a pick 4 with 2 singles on a big ticket and 3 singles on a smaller ticket. I will post both. SMALL 4/ 9/ 3 6 7/ 3 6 7/ 2 4 5 10/ 5. This is $72. A bigger play that I wouldnt play without partners would go 4/ 6 7 9/3 6 7/ 2 3 4 6 7/ 1 2 3 4 5 10/ 5. This is $540. Remember that on Derby day, there is way too much info, and I try to block it all out and go with my own opinion. It is an enjoyable day but there are far easier ways to make money doing this than betting a 20 horse field that almost anyone can win. Trust me, it is far more fun when you can play and make money. Geno's friend from Buffalo that you will hear more from if Oaks day goes well, GG.

GG's right hand man, Dr. No (long time blog follower) chimes in with his Oaks selection, tedious as it may be....

Here goes, in the Oaks, I like Tidal Pool, Amen Hallelujah and Blind Luck. T his race is harder for me than the Derby. I will use all three, probably more.

Next up, is Crazy Joe Davoli from ONY Stables in the Capital District......short and sweet:

Kentucky Oaks looks (no pun intended) like Blind Luck's race to lose at 6/5 and at those odds i'm getting lucky with Crisp from the always dangerous John Sadler barn at 7 to 1 and will root for Amen Hallelujah at 8 to 1 to grace the winner's circle.

Finally, JB, who wrote a few blog entries during Derby season last year keeps it short and sweet (his Derby selection is a tad longer).....

Oaks pick: Go to the window with the Dutrow horse.

We'll have some Derby thoughts from JB, Wack, the Puma, the Saratoga Resident, Jazzy Jeff, Dr. No, yours truly and of course, The Space Gal, before the weekend is over....so stay tuned.

Overture...Curtain...Lights....

Tweet I've decided to break out the Degrees of Separation post now that the draw is set, the morning lines are out and the post positions have been drawn. The derby spreadsheet (right sidebar) has been updated with post positions and morning lines. You may remember last year at this time I separated the ponies out between different divisions. We've added one new division this year as we opine away here in the Space Station....so on to it....mind you that Mine That Bird's little quote last year was "slowest of the slow," so take these at face value!


The AMC Gremlin Division: My dad bought my mom an American Motors Corporation (AMC) Gremlin back in 1975 (or thereabouts) and it was a thing of beauty. Bright red, sleek gold stripes, the works. Problem was, it just wasn't fast. Surely it wasn't your average Ferrari or Corvette, for that matter. These are the horses that qualify for this division and are throw-outs:

Backtalk: Saw him win the Sanford at the Spa last summer and that, my friends, is the last good thing he's done. Drew into the field with Interactif's defection today. We'll pass on him. Only possible upside is he has Smarty's blood....

Make Music for Me: He hits the board, I'll eat my 2006 Derby hat.

Stately Victor: Synthetic winner of the Bluegrass Stakes. 'Nuff said.

Mission Impazible: Cool name, that's about it (other than Rajeeeeeev!)

Homeboykris: Funnier things have happened....nah, not two years in a row.

The George Costanza Human Fund Divsion: These will be the horses that take in a lot of money and have a little hype, but will be unmasked in the Derby and will not hit the board.

Devil May Care: Not this year ladies. It's the year of the dudes. (Hope she takes lots of $$ at the windows)

Noble's Promise: Odds don't makes sense to me, but will take lots of dough. Don't see it as a synthetic specialist.

Paddy O'Prado: Will take a lot of South Boston money, but can't see this horse who seems more sensible to be running on turf.

Dean's Kitten: Ditto. Turf horse. Will take the cat money.

American Lion: Only positives are Tiznow proven at mile and a quarter....hear me roar.

Brett Favre Division: The horses that qualify for this division are those I just can't make up my mind on. Indecision, indecision. Include them, exclude them....just not sure yet...

Line of David: The way he held on in the Arkansas Derby was impressive, but was that his top effort and can he come back with another? I just don't know.

Discreetly Mine: Not the fastest Beyers in the race, but decent pedigree, should be able to get the distance and nice Tomlinsons. Drew post 15 (where Smarty won from). Undecided.

Conveyance: Baffert always dangerous. Could get loose on the lead. Dangerous if track is wet. My projection (a) will come out fast and fade just as quickly and (b) will wire it. Again, undecided. Leaning towards (a).

The Afleet Alex Division: Horses that won't win the Derby, but will have to be respected and could hit the board. Potential Classic winner down the road in Preakness or Belmont.

Dublin: Since Afleet Alex is his daddy, only logical he fits in this division. Not saying I won't be including him in my mix come Saturday.

Sidney's Candy: In the mix, but he's no Big Brown from post 20.

Jackson Bend: He's got to finish other than second at some point, right?

The Rocky Balboa Division (post underdog status): These are the creme de le creme. Can you hear the theme song?

Lookin at Lucky: Horrible post draw for the fav, but it could actually work out if he breaks well. Tough to ignore.

Ice Box: If there's a pace meltdown, he will be around to claim a prize.

Super Saver: Really have warmed up to this one. Pletcher's best chance to wear the roses. Sports Monarchos' sire, his damsire is A.P. Indy, so he has the pedigree AND the king of Churchill in the irons. Dangerous.

Awesome Act: Supplemented Endorsement in this spot. Starting to warm up to him. Good work this week.

So that's my annual look at the degrees of separation. Make sure you check out the final Wireplayers.com poll (Volume VIII) that will be out tomorrow (and located on the left sidebar). We'll have some of my racing pals that I have featured on the blog the last two years chiming in on Friday with some of their Derby thoughts and selections....should be fun so stay tuned....this is it!

Exacta-ly What I'm Looking For

Tweet One of the things I love to take a crack at on Derby Day is the Exacta. Over the last ten years the $2 payout has averaged a whopping $1,547.80. Even if you throw out four of the boxcar years of 2009, 2005, 2002 and 2001 the $2 exacta paid an average of $176. So it's a good one to take a stab at on Derby Day.

I also just realized in discussing the departure of the favorite, that I made only one future bet this year (Pool 3) and it was a $1 exacta box of Lookin at Lucky, Dublin and All Others. Which means for the cost of $6, I have an exacta box that also includes in the All Others category the following horses: Line of David, Mission Impazible, Stately Victor, Endorsement, American Lion, Devil May Care, Dean's Kitten and Paddy O'Prado. The Pool 3 $2 exacta will pays are found here.

Here's a rundown of the last ten year's of exacta winners and $2 payouts:

2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80
2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60
2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80
2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00
2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80
2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20
2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00
2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80
2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00

Only in 2004 did the top two choices finish 1-2 in the exacta, but it still paid pretty decent for $2. So what are some of our options for the 2010 Derby exacta??

"The Lucky Devil" Exacta: Lookin at Lucky with Devil May Care

"The James Cameron" Exacta: American Lion with Stately Victor

"The Toddster Five Horse Box": Mission Impazible, Super Saver, Devil May Care, Interactif, and Discreetly Mine (cost $20 btw)

"The Irish Car Bomb" Exacta: Dublin with Paddy O'Prado

"The Drug Deal" Exacta: Homeboykris with Sidney's Candy

"The Big Gun Baffert" or "I'm Bob Baffert Bitches" Exacta: Lookin at Lucky with Conveyance

"The Cat-Zacta" Exacta: American Lion with Dean's Kitten

"The Tiger Woods" Exacta: Awesome Act with Discreetly Mine

and finally....

"The Hell Freezes Over" Exacta: Ice Box with Devil May Care

So now you know, what I'm looking for (on Derby Day)....

Calm Before the Storm

Tweet By this time next week, we'll know who's in the gate for the 136th Kentucky Derby presented by Taco Smell. Some big questions will be answered today as to whether certain horses in the bottom portion of the Top 20 in graded stakes will qualify to run for the roses...

Will 85ina50 handle a muddy track today in The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes? Will he abide by the Churchill Downs speed limit, which is photo enforced? I've previewed the race over at the ThoroFan Handicappers' Corner - take a gander to see who I like today...

Hard to believe it's been a year since my visit to Churchill on opening day, where I projected Kensei to be a force in the summer after finishing second in the Derby Trial...

Loving the HD telecast on TwinSpires TV of today's opener at Churchill Downs...

The Saratoga Resident and I attended the Game 5 last night to bring our Sabres some good luck and a return to Beantown on Monday to put the pressure back on the B's.

Today's horse preview is Tom Cruise's pick Mission Impazible....there are a lot of number references in this video for you hunch players... (yes I will be playing a 4-9-7 tri box on derby day)...

Handicapping Highballs

Tweet I saunter into my favorite watering hole, the View, a nice old tavern just around the corner from the Space Station. “Hey Jack, I’ll have the usual,” I motion to the long time friendly neighborhood server. “Goose and Tang, coming right up, SpaceMan.” He chuckles to himself, while I smile and acknowledge the same line he uses every time I come in before fixing me a tall screwdriver in a special pint glass. I glance down the bar from my spot on the horseshoe curve, it’s been awhile since I’ve visited but the faces never change. “So the Triple Crown season is here,” Jack mentions as he slides my ‘driver down the bar in front of me. “You got your Derby horse, yet?” I take a long, slow drag of my drink before answering Jack’s question as if I’m pondering the meaning of life. “Well, Jack, there seems to be three or four horses that seem to be slightly better than the rest, but I like to see where the post positions fall before making any final decisions. Did you know they’re doing a pill pull this year, probably won’t be on TV either?”

Jack moves down the bar to help another patron who just came in for her afternoon cosmopolitan, but looks back over his shoulder and says, “Who do you like again??” I smile as this little cat and mouse game will go on until I tell him who I like and who’s in my trifecta. He finishes up with the young lady who’s waiting for her friends to join her for happy hour, hoping they show up soon as talk of horse racing doesn’t seem to be part of her repertoire. “Doesn’t that white haired fellow with the pointy nose have a bunch of horses running again this year,” Jack asks. “You mean, Pletcher? Sure, he could have six or seven in the gate, thinking this could be his year. I’m usually a chalk eater when it comes to the Derby, Jack, but this year the favorite looks pretty damn good on paper.” Jack decides to loosen me up with a complimentary shot on the house, he’s working me now, wanting more information on what I may be keeping to myself, adding, “How about a long shot, anyone look interesting to you?”

I throw back the shot (a nice bourbon) and decide to give him a nugget or two. “You know, Jack, that it’s a little known fact that they serve over 120,000 mint juleps over the Oaks/Derby weekend at Churchill?” “Yeah, SpaceMan, but who’s your longshot?” I rub my chin and explain there’s still a lot of analysis to do and man, if you’re stuck in that outside gate, there’s a whole lot of work and energy to get into position (unless you're Big Brown, of course). So I give up who else I’m kind of fond of ten days out from the big day. “Jack, I really think Dublin is sitting on a big one. I’m still smarting over his daddy not getting up for second in 2005, as I had him in my exacta with Giacomo. He should be in that 18/1 to 22/1 price range on the tote, so I think he has as good a shot as any to hit the board. The other horse that has my interest is Endorsement who also should be a decent price for the female trainer Ritter.” This peaks our lady friend’s interest, who asks “Will any fillies be running?” "Don’t know yet, ma’am, but one is being considered named Devil May Care.” She turns back to her cosmo and smiles. Jack decides to pry further, “Anyone else, c’mon?” “I wouldn’t leave Ice Box out of any exotic bet, Jack, he’s got decent pedigree and that darn Lezcano beats me every weekend.”

Satisfied that he’s pulled the information that he wanted from me, he smiles and asks, “So who do you think the Bills are taking tomorrow night?” Our little game over, I ask politely, “Jack, you better pour me another goose…”

Derby Trials and Tribulations

Tweet It's not everyday you get to present in front of a Hall of Fame Quarterback, and receive thanks for the work you do for his charity so it's been a pretty good day up here in the frozen tundra.

But I digress, as there is a big race on the horizon and plenty of news surrounding it.....so here goes...

- Jon Court meet Shaft. I don't know why this is bothering me so much, other than the fact that Court was one of the main characters in the "Jockeys" reality show, and it always seemed like he never could catch a break. So now he has a chance to have his first Derby mount and John Sadler decides to go back to his homeboy Raf Bejarano on Line of David. Whatever happened to going home with the girl you brought to the dance? I know there's a number of arguments against this....I just feel bad for him. He must be crushed.

- The Derby Trial, which I attended last year, with no impact on the 09 Kentucky Derby, could have a huge impact as three (count 'em, three) horses will attempt to crack the Top 20 in graded stakes by winning the $200K Grade 3 race on opening day at Churchill Downs. The three horses, Eightyfiveinafifty (Contessa/Dominguez/$120K earnings), Pleasant Prince (Ward/Leparoux/$166K) and Drosselmeyer (Mott/Desormeaux/$87K) all could pick up the first place graded winnings (~ $140K). Pleasant Prince would vault into 18th and into the gate, the other two obviously need defections, injuries, etc. to crack the gate on May 1st.

- We may have a filly joining the fray, and yet another Pletcher horse. Maybe he feels she has a better chance in the Derby than the Oaks?

- I've updated my Derby Spreadsheet with Devil May Care and the three aforementioned Derby Trial horses, be sure to check it out on the right sidebar. Make sure you also check out the TBA Morning Line spreadsheet and what's shakin' over there.

- This year I'm going dark before the Derby, I'm going to try and stay away from reading other people's opinions and just focus on my own bad handicapping and my gut feelings on the race. Too many times I read what others are writing or thinking and it biases my thought process. So I'll go down on my own this year, thank you. (Easier said than done)

I love that Eightfiveinafifty's dam is Lifeinthefastlane. TKS...this one's for you...

OTB Parlors Going Way of T-Rex?

Tweet Off-Track Betting (OTB) parlors have been part of the landscape of New York State since 1970. The state is separated by six different corporations across the state that runs the OTB's in their respective geographic areas. I was one who frequented your local OTB, when I first garnered interest in horse racing five years ago. This was before I discovered the ADW (advance deposit wagering) and am now able to gamble in my Family Guy underwear on my couch with my dog (you thought I was gonna say in my mom's basement, didn't you?). With the aging population of the majority of those who patronize the local OTB and the problems that have been duly noted in the NYC corporation, is the possibility that the OTB parlor goes the way of the brontosaurus burger?

Western OTB has several locations across the Buffalo region and I enjoy most of them and have had some great times and enjoyed some fun moments in some of them. My favorite (Wehrle Drive) has a real nice upper level bar with lots of screens (even a big screen that shows NFL football or mainstream sports) as well as the $2 Bud Light bottle (can't go wrong there). Even though I maintain an ADW online account, I still like to go over on certain days. I'm a traditional kinda guy and although I don't enjoy having to pay a surcharge against my winnings, it's a cool atmosphere, fun to hang with some of my horseplayer pals, and the food and drink is cheap.

My favorite days to stop in and play the ponies are the Friday afternoons of the Oaks and the Black-Eyed Susan, and I don't think I've missed a Florida Derby in some time. There are some other nice parlors (one very close to the office if I need a Form) and other than the Niagara Falls and Lackawanna branches, they're all pretty clean and safe. My biggest score in an OTB was a horse named Purge who upset the 2005 Cigar Mile that I celebrated with a few strangers. I still remember when the Space Gal was annoyed with me between a wedding and reception in the Falls when I disappeared for an hour to bet the 2005 Mother Goose (yep, hit the tri) in my suit. My hometown, Syracuse (and Onondaga County) does not have any, although just a few exits up on Rt 481, you can find a super branch in Phoenix that my dad and I have made a few trips to (be right back!). Ironically, an article appeared last month about the Onondaga County legislature's consideration of getting into the OTB business.

I've been to two others in my lifetime outside of New York, in Pennsylvania (Penn National in Lancaster) and Oregon (Lava Lanes in Medford) and those were both decent places. (I think I was the only one playing Finger Lakes at 10am in Oregon). I'm not even sure if most states have them, but with technology and the advancement of ADW's (have you seen CDI's numbers lately?) do you think they can survive? What will they look like in 5 years? Most are state-run operations and need huge makeovers and reinvestment in the physical plant; the likelihood of available funding for either is somewhere between slim and none (and slim left the building).

So whaddya think? Heading towards extinction? Have any good OTB stories? Let er rip....

Canadian Bacon

Tweet With the NHL playoffs in full swing, why not a Canadian based post today to honor our friends to the North who invented the game on ice...

- Good news from our neighbors in Southern Ontario, the Happy Handicapper, Bob Summers (not sure why they call him the HH since he only handicaps three races all year for the News - KD, PoW and QP) reports in the Buffalo News that I can start using my buffalo nickels again at the border oval in Fort Erie. That's good news and will probably make it a little easier to make the decision to go over (without having to change my coin to Canadian bacon).

- Other Canadian based news (not really), Tim Kelly, one of the owners of Obviously NY Stables reported to me via email on Tuesday that on Monday night at the NY Breds annual awards dinner that Canadian Ballet won three awards. "She won for Older Female, Female Turf and Female Sprinter. It was an amazing event and she won 3 really spectacular trophies (see attached picture). Mother Russia was also nominated for Three Year Old Female but she lost to Don’t Forget Gil. As expected, Linda Rice won Trainer of the Year, so it was a pretty amazing night." Great news from the boys at ONY Stables and on to 2010. Cheers and good luck in Race 8 on Saturday at Keeneland in the Giant's Causeway, where Canadian Ballet is the 3-1 morning line favorite. It goes off right before the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, TBA'er Joe Nevills has his handicap of the Lexington over at the ThoroFan Handicapper's Corner, be sure to check it out.

- I'm pretty glad that the Sabres didn't draw the Canadiens (I'm working this Canadian thing) in the NHL playoffs, les Habitantes looked pretty scary beating the Caps in OT last night. Loving that playoff hockey is back here and psyched to go to Game 2 tomorrow afternoon. No surprise that Olympic netminder Ryan Miller was uber-solid in goal in drawing first blood against the Bruins (owned by Buffalonian Jeremy Jacobs).

- Lastly, and I'm stretching for a Canadian reference here, but I picked up an Eskendereya tee shirt (super quality by the way) over at Handride's site (ahhh, his wife is Canadian, so I've completed my Canuck superfecta) for Derby Day and I'm looking forward to rocking it in 2 weeks.

Have a good weekend, go Sabres and enjoy the racing...

The Scottish Grand National

Tweet Special report brought to you by EquiSpace Ventures International....

Saturday will see thousands of horse racing fans turn their attention to Ayr Racecourse as the Scottish Grand National draws near. As usual the biggest event in Scottish jump racing calendar has attracted a top class field of runners and riders so betting fans will be spoiled for choice when making their selections. Some of the major talking points in the lead up to the off has been the news that Denman and Chief Dan George will not now be running. Does this mean that the 2010 Scottish Grand National could be one of the most open in years? Let’s take a look at some of the fancied horses and assess their chances.

According to the online betting sites, the Ferdy Murphy trained Poker De Sivola ridden by Graham Lee is the 6/1 favourite. Ferdy Murphy has a very impressive record of training winners in this race – he triumphed with Hot Weld in 2007, Joe’s Edge in 2005 and Paris Pike in 2000. Many think he may be in luck again this year after seeing the way that Poker De Sivola won in fine style in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.

Another strongly fancied runner is Meanus Dandy. Trained by Paul Nicholls, this horse looks to have the character and form to do very well on the day. Although not confirmed yet, Paddy Brennan is likely to be in the saddle.

Many racing fans will be wondering whether Theatrical Moment can do the business for trainer Jonjo O’Neill and jockey Tony McCoy. The pair triumphed with Don’t Push It in the English Grand National at Aintree last week and will be hoping that they can complete a stunning double with Theatrical Moment at Ayr. With odds of 12/1 some may think that they can come up trumps again.

Gone to Lunch (my favorite name of the bunch) is another horse that cannot be discounted, after almost winning the race last year although some pundits may feel that his inconsistent form this season is a worry.

In recent years only one top weight horse has triumphed and it remains to be seen whether trainer J Howard-Johnson’s Killyglen will be able to rise to the occasion under a big weight.

Of the rest of the field, Razor Royale, the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained winner of the Racing Post Chase looks a good each way bet at 16/1. He looks to have the class and courage to do well on the day.

A decisive factor in this race will of course be stamina as the race is run over more than four miles (!!!) and there are 27 fences to negotiate on the way to the winning post. The going is said to be good and the weather looks to be staying fine between now and the weekend.

As the Scottish Grand National Race is one of the final major dates in the UK jump season horse racing betting fans will be eagerly anticipating a highly competitive race that never fails to produce excitement and thrills galore.

2010 SpaceSheet Unveiled

Tweet The long awaited EquiSpace Derby Spreadsheet 2010 has been unveiled. It pokes its head up right around April 15th every year, kinda like the groundhog, but on tax day instead. If you've nosed around here around Derby time the past few years you know what I'm talking about. The Saratoga Resident has pals in the Capitol District that ask him for "the spreadsheet" every year, "Is it ready yet?" Well, I've been working on it diligently every Sunday evening and have used it as a guide for my biweekly Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen participation. (Volume VII was released today). So what was the impetus behind my creating said spreadsheet. I go back to 2008 when I read the book "Betting the Kentucky Derby" by Dean Keppler. The book has very interesting chapters on how prep races, pedigree, Beyer speed figures and post positions have historically figured into the puzzle that is selecting the Derby champ. So I started compiling data for the top 25 horses on the graded earnings list with a number of relevant statistics: post position (winning and ITM%s), last 3 Beyer Speed Figs, pedigree (sire, dam, dam's sire), Average Winning Distances (sire and dam's sire), Tomlinsons (Distance and Wet), final prep race/result and dosage index. An entire gamut of information all on one page to digest.

So here's a snap shot of the top five (you know how I love lists) of certain areas (top 20 only) as we sit 2 1/2 weeks from the first Saturday in May.... (NOTE: Updated for actual Derby starters)

Top Beyer (last 3 races):
1 - Sidney's Candy (100)
2 - Devil May Care (100)
3 - Ice Box (99)
4 - Four tied with 98 (Line of David, Super Saver, American Lion & Awesome Act)

Highest Tomlinson (Dirt):
1 - Super Saver (367)
2 - Discreetly Mine (335)
3 - Lookin at Lucky (309)
4 - Awesome Act (302)
5 - Stately Victor (294)

Highest Tomlinson (Wet):
1 - Noble's Promise (471)
2 - American Lion (426)
3 - Awesome Act (416)
4 - Super Saver (413)
5 - Line of David (411)

Average Winning Distance (AWD) - Sire:
1 - Ice Box (7.7f)
5 - American Lion (7.5)
5 - Dublin (7.5)
5 - Discreetly Mine (7.5)
5 - Paddy O'Prado (7.5)

AWD - Dam's Sire:
1 - Stately Victor (8.5)
2 - Homeboykris (8.3)
3 - Super Saver (8.2)
4 - Backtalk (8.0)
5 - Discreetly Mine (7.9)

Dosage Index:
1 - Dean's Kitten (1.15)
2 - Paddy O'Prado (1.20)
3 - Sidney's Candy (1.86)
4 - Stately Victor (1.91)
5 - Dublin (2.33)

So, lots of data to digest. Interesting how certain horses keep showing up in the top 5 of a number of categories. I will keep the spreadsheet up in the right hand sidebar and will update it as horses fall off the trail and out of the top 20 in graded earnings. Of course, you'll have to keep an eye on the workouts during the 2 weeks leading up to the Derby also. The puzzle is out there, now it's time to try and sort it out.....

Inside the Fences

Tweet I had the rare (rare, in that I've never done it before) opportunity yesterday to see the game from inside the fences at Woodbine Racetrack (photos courtesy: Keith from Triple Dead Heat) in Rexdale, Ontario for La Chica Rica's first race on the polytrack. The Buffalo based connections invited me into the paddock (walking ring) with them to listen to the last minute instructions of trainer Chris Progno, of CJP Racing, to Finger Lakes jock Gabe Suarez before Race 4 at Woodbine. While I can't tell you all what was said (as I'd like to be invited back), it was an unique view into the inside strategy divulged between jockey and trainer before the race.




There were a lot of questions to whether Chica could handle the poly shipping in from Mountaineer, whether she'd like it and if she could get on the lead early based on her speed. While she broke well and was in the mix for the first furlong, she was cut off for the second straight race on the backstretch and just turned off the jets and started backing up. In addition, she certainly isn't used to taking the poly in her face and jockey Suarez just loped in with her, finishing last.



















So the day didn't go exactly as planned, we learned that Chica didn't take to the poly and the connections will probably look for a race back in the States, although finding the right conditions for her have been quite difficult so far in 2010. But we still had a nice day despite her effort up in the Post Parade Restaurant and it is always good to see Keith of Triple Dead Heat lore. He tells me the Queen is expected for the Plate on the 4th of July, so our next space shuttle mission up North will be to see myself some royalty (queue Queen of Hearts).

I didn't play too hard as it was more of a social day at the track, but did cash a $4 exactor (I feel like I'm a transformer every time I say exactor to a Canadian teller) on heavy favorite Hollywood Hit (that is one fast race horse to take note of) over 9/2 Field Commission, who was charging hard at the wire, in the day's feature race, the $150K Jacques Cartier Stakes. Quick history lesson: Cartier was the dude who named Canada after the Iroquoian word for St. Lawrence, kanata. Not all races are named after horses in the Great White Nord. Don't say you didn't learn something today while perusing the ole Space site....

Holy Boxcars, Batman!

Tweet Let's just say I made the right (or some would say wrong) move by sitting out yesterday's big Derby prep races and just watching for enjoyment. The inset was basically the feeling of most bettors yesterday when 40-1 shot Stately Victor (most felt like Stately Victim) upset the Blue Grass and 17-1 shot Line of David upsetting the Arkansas Derby, both punching tickets to Louisville. The $2 trifecta paid in excess of $4,200 in the Blue Grass and Stately Victor paid $82.20 in front of the second largest crowd in Keeneland history (33,727). Down the road in Hot Springs in front of over 61,500, Line of David, wired the field and held off hard closing Super Saver, and my choice, Dublin in a solid effort.


Some Jack Handy-like deep thoughts and some non-horse observations follow.....


- Both Saturday winners are probably tosses come Derby Day, although Line of David's effort in the stretch certainly caught my eye. The Blue Grass is simply a non-factor (other than for graded earnings) as a Derby prep. You never know how the polycrap is going to play from one day to the next (and I'm not just saying that as a humbled handicapper). Nothing against Keeneland, the place is terrific, it's just a matter of consistency with respect to the track conditions.


- Nice appearance by tencentcielo on TVG's Gate Crashers before the San Puente Stakes yesterday at Santa Anita.


- Looking forward to my trip up the Queen Elizabeth Way later this morning to see the 7 year old mare La Chica Rica of Buffalo-based connections in the 4th at Woodbine. My pal GG tells me to check out the Frankie Merrill (Hoso's trainer) display down in the paddock area and I plan to check it out.


- The top 20 in graded earnings (h/t Ian Lozada) have Jackson Bend, Backtalk and Odysseus on the outside looking in with only a couple graded opportunities left (Coolmore Lexington and Derby Trial) in the remaining two weekends before the Derby. Expect some drop outs in the top 20 though, as last minute defections due to injury inevitably occur every year. This week's Wireplayers' Derby Dozen sure will be interesting, I've made a few changes in my list alone.


Some non-horse thoughts (horse readers feel free to back away slowly)....


- Draft day quickly approaching (week from Thursday night) and the dilemma of the Bills first round selection at #9 is playing out hot and heavy in the media here (both guys think we should take an offensive lineman). I'm leaning towards an OT in round one also and try and grab Tebow with #2 (if available) or take LeFevour (Central Michigan/MAC guy) or Tony Pike (Cincinnati/Big East guy) in a later round. Of course, I know little to nothing about NFL personnel, but it's my nickel.


- I like Lee Westwood to win his first major this afternoon. He seems pretty together and I like the way he's been making the five to ten footers when he needs them. Look for the inevitable Phil brain fart somewhere on the back nine. I love the guy, but his caddy needs to set him straight if he gets goofy in the late afternoon. Wonder if Accenture is regretting pulling the sponsorship, Tiger is getting some serious air time and rival KPMG is on Phil's cap....food for thought.


- Speaking of golf, I remember a guy named Brian Murphy (aka the Water Cooler) used to write a Monday column for ESPN page 2 several years ago, who covered all the big golf events. I miss his columns and weekend lists of five (probably why I liked reading him so much...he's a lists guy). The 2002 article I linked to above is kinda spooky to read with excerpts about Tiger, Phil and Roger Clemens...

- The Sabres return to the playoffs this week and this championship-starved town will be behind them in full force. I think we're an afterthought around the league, but two words can change everything. Ryan. Miller. Should be a fun ride....

Nickel and Diming

Tweet Not sure why I named the post as such, but since I had this cool picture of a Buffalo Nickel, I figured I'd share. Pretty cool, huh?

There will be no nickel and diming this weekend as some big races loom on the Derby front for precious graded earnings, as well as the unbeaten Zenyatta (#1 BetAmerica.com F&M [120] in the TBA Standings to the right) shooting for sweet 16 back on the Oaklawn dirt for the first time in two years. The race is scheduled to go off at 7:25pm EST on HRTV and DRF.com is also streaming the race live.

On the local front, I'm planning a trip up nord (that's Viking for north) to Woodbine on Sunday to see EquiSpace favorite La Chica Rica for the first time! She's shipping in to run in race 4, an $80K optional claimer NX3. Trying the poly for the first time and in for a tag ($80K). This is her second race of 2010, her first being against males at Mountaineer last month after a long layoff. She's in against a tough crew here, but it'll be worth the two hour trek up the Queen-E to check her out. Definitely investing a few dimes on the 7 year old mare.

The Turk has a post up handicapping this weekend's Toyota Bluegrass Stakes over at the TBA Handicappers' Corner over at ThoroFan. You can always pick up some good tips from the ole Turk, so make sure you check it out. No nickel and diming in his plays over there.

I'll leave it to the Turk to handicap the Bluegrass and the polytrack, but we'll take a quick look at the Arkansas Derby here (and I do mean quick)...I'm leaning towards D. Wayne and Dublin, third off the layoff angle, and having some decent works since the Rebel, with Noble's Promise and Super Saver underneath. The horse that has me intrigued, however, is New Madrid, coming off his maiden victory for trainer Tim Ice (remember him?). He might be worth rubbing a few nickels together as a longshot play. The Rock Hard Ten colt is a horse for the course and shouldn't be too quick of a toss. Make sure to tune into NBC on Saturday afternoon for the two Derby preps.

Now don't be nickel and diming this weekend...go big or go home! Now what other site can go from Bret Michaels to Bing in a single bound?

What's Hot, What's Not?

Tweet









So, I like lists.....sue me.

I Can't Hear You.....

Tweet Gomez: Yo man what the #%&$ were you doing out there.....driving me into the fence, you stupid $%^@#***!!!

Valenzuela Espinoza: What? I can't hear you.

Details here.

Happy Easter.

Super Saturday Selections

Tweet Say that five times fast....

Wood Memorial at Aqueduct

Analysis and handicap located at ThoroFan's Handicappers' Corner today.

1 - Schoolyard Dreams 2 - Eskendereya 3 - Awesome Act

Illinois Derby at Hawthorne

No analysis, go find it somewhere else...looks like a weak field to me for a Derby prep...

1 - Turf Melody 2 - Backtalk 3 - American Lion

Santa Anita Derby

LaL should smoke these colts, the difficulty is who will round out the trifecta....

1 - Lookin at Lucky (shocker) 2 - Setsuko 3 - Sidney's Candy (who doesn't like candy at Easter...sorry my hunch play Fish on Good Friday yesterday didn't work out so well)

Other Notes

Volume VI of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen poll is up and yours truly has the first comment listed (woo hoo)....check it out.

It's TBA week in the blogosphere, so go checkout the Facebook Fan Page or join the Twitter account.

A belated welcome to our three new TBA blogs, Brian at RailRunner, Jennifer at The Saturday Post and Bill at Science of Horse Training. Make sure you visit our new bloggers' sites!

The Terrible Twos

Tweet We turn two today at Camp EquiSpace and head into the Terrible Twos. We're still having a good time here in the interwebs, just wanted to say thanks to all who stop by for a chuckle or to be annoyed by me. Once in a while a blind squirrel finds a nut and that's what I'm all about, the search for that perfect nut.


I'm very appreciate to be a member of the TBA, it's really what made this small little dot on the world wide web visible to folks who love racing (and peeps other than the Space Gal or my immediate family). Mostly it's been great to meet a lot of you at the track during one of my visits or to interact with you over the past two years.

Special thanks to the Saratoga Resident for introducing me to this awesome sport and to the Space Gal who puts up with my shenanigans on a daily basis.


We'll be back to our regularly scheduled forum for bad handicapping, bad jokes and poor grammar tomorrow. Meanwhile, time to get kickin' on the Late Pick 4 at Keeneland or tomorrow's Fortune 6 carryover at Beulah (more on this in a future post).....thanks again for reading.