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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

2010 SpaceSheet Unveiled

The long awaited EquiSpace Derby Spreadsheet 2010 has been unveiled. It pokes its head up right around April 15th every year, kinda like the groundhog, but on tax day instead. If you've nosed around here around Derby time the past few years you know what I'm talking about. The Saratoga Resident has pals in the Capitol District that ask him for "the spreadsheet" every year, "Is it ready yet?" Well, I've been working on it diligently every Sunday evening and have used it as a guide for my biweekly Derby Dozen participation. (Volume VII was released today). So what was the impetus behind my creating said spreadsheet. I go back to 2008 when I read the book "Betting the Kentucky Derby" by Dean Keppler. The book has very interesting chapters on how prep races, pedigree, Beyer speed figures and post positions have historically figured into the puzzle that is selecting the Derby champ. So I started compiling data for the top 25 horses on the graded earnings list with a number of relevant statistics: post position (winning and ITM%s), last 3 Beyer Speed Figs, pedigree (sire, dam, dam's sire), Average Winning Distances (sire and dam's sire), Tomlinsons (Distance and Wet), final prep race/result and dosage index. An entire gamut of information all on one page to digest.

So here's a snap shot of the top five (you know how I love lists) of certain areas (top 20 only) as we sit 2 1/2 weeks from the first Saturday in May.... (NOTE: Updated for actual Derby starters)

Top Beyer (last 3 races):
1 - Sidney's Candy (100)
2 - Devil May Care (100)
3 - Ice Box (99)
4 - Four tied with 98 (Line of David, Super Saver, American Lion & Awesome Act)

Highest Tomlinson (Dirt):
1 - Super Saver (367)
2 - Discreetly Mine (335)
3 - Lookin at Lucky (309)
4 - Awesome Act (302)
5 - Stately Victor (294)

Highest Tomlinson (Wet):
1 - Noble's Promise (471)
2 - American Lion (426)
3 - Awesome Act (416)
4 - Super Saver (413)
5 - Line of David (411)

Average Winning Distance (AWD) - Sire:
1 - Ice Box (7.7f)
5 - American Lion (7.5)
5 - Dublin (7.5)
5 - Discreetly Mine (7.5)
5 - Paddy O'Prado (7.5)

AWD - Dam's Sire:
1 - Stately Victor (8.5)
2 - Homeboykris (8.3)
3 - Super Saver (8.2)
4 - Backtalk (8.0)
5 - Discreetly Mine (7.9)

Dosage Index:
1 - Dean's Kitten (1.15)
2 - Paddy O'Prado (1.20)
3 - Sidney's Candy (1.86)
4 - Stately Victor (1.91)
5 - Dublin (2.33)

So, lots of data to digest. Interesting how certain horses keep showing up in the top 5 of a number of categories. I will keep the spreadsheet up in the right hand sidebar and will update it as horses fall off the trail and out of the top 20 in graded earnings. Of course, you'll have to keep an eye on the workouts during the 2 weeks leading up to the Derby also. The puzzle is out there, now it's time to try and sort it out.....

1 Comment:

Ernie said...

Not that I ever put a lot of stock in the dosage - Crist years - decades? -ago wrote an awesome piece debunking it - but I'm surprised Sidney came up so strong.

Excited to see him on dirt, but a tough place to start.


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