Keeneland Opener: Epitome of a 4 letter word

Tweet There's been a lot of talk about 4 letter words when it comes to synthetics lately...so the timing seems perfect for the opening day of Keeneland's spring meet on Friday on the polytrack. Ok, you're not going to get a whine session about how hard it is to handicap the synth at KEE from this part of the blogosphere....but if you look at the opening day's entries you'll see what I mean about 4 letter words....for instance...

Race 2: Hull (#4 horse, ML 2-1)
Last year's Derby Trial Stakes winner (I was there!) on Churchill's opening day makes his 2010 debut in a 6 furlong race taking on two tough foes in Taqurub (5/2) and Despite the Odds (5/2). Unraced since last June's Woody Stephens on Belmont Day, he's undefeated in Kentucky so our first 4 letter horse of day with Robby Albarado up is ready to roll.

Race 4: Inti (URU) (#2 horse, ML 10-1)
Not as inviting a selection, this Uruguayan 5 year may be overmatched going 1 1/16 on the polytrack, but he's been over this track before and has the speed to contend. We'll try and hit the board with our second 4 letter word.

Race 5: Toll (#1 horse, ML 4-1)
At 4-1 we won't be trying to Hit it Rich (5/2) on this one, but if I pull out my Secret File (6-1), maybe we can pull something off in the exotics in this one. Had some success on the poly in his maiden debut and Leparoux rode him. Won't be playing the 4 letter double.

Race 6: Doff (#1 horse, ML 15-1)
I love their beer. Heck, for a buck a 4 letter Pick 3? The trainer is 40% this year with first time starters (2 for 5 - full disclosure).

Race 8: Fish (#6 horse, ML 5-1)
Julien Leparoux up. Fish on Good Friday. C'mon if this isn't the 4 letter hunch play of the day, I'm a rock star. Broke maiden at Keeneland last year.

Race 9: Call Shot (#1 horse, ML 12-1)
Ok, I'm stretching it a bit...but back to back 4 letter words? Works for me....Think Babe Ruth pointing skyward...

Have fun, enjoy the card and refrain from using any 4 letter words...

So What Did We Learn?

Tweet So what did we learn this weekend? Let's try and sort things out, shall we and maybe ask a few unanswered questions on the way?

1) The Toddster added another one in the gate in Louisville in Mission Impazible. Sooner or later the odds have to be with you, no? Or is this mission of his, truly impazible?

2) USA Network had a backup plan during their national broadcast of the Lane's End, too bad it didn't include Mike Battaglia.

3) This year's fourth place finisher in the Sunland Derby (Fog Alert) will not win the Kentucky Derby.

4) $10 million dollar races that end up in a three horse photo finish are EXCITING!

5) CBS and Duke have signed a three year pact for inclusion in the next 10 Final Fours.

6) Some Cat horse won the Lane's End. Yawn. Wake me when a Derby winner emerges from this prep. Wait...I can't sleep through the next decade....scratch that.

7) No filly has emerged to take a shot at the big dance. Will one come forward in the next few weeks? Last year this time, folks were talkin' about Stardom Bound, not some filly named Rachel somethingorother....

8) That I'm enjoying the weekly contests over at The Knight Sky Racing Blog. Of course, I don't follow directions and screw up the bets, but it's fun nonetheless.

9) IEAH still hasn't bought a Derby horse...what's up with that? I need some new blood to make fun of....c'mon Mikey get with it.

10) Lots of chatter out there about who's on the fence of graded earnings (Odysseus, Eskendereya, etc.). It comes down to this: "Show me the money." Lots of time, Space fans.

Thorofan Handicappers’ Corner: Another TBA Collaboration

Tweet Today is the unveiling of a collaboration between the fan group ThoroFan and the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. For several weeks, we have been working with Michael Amo and Niki Rowe over at ThoroFan to put together a handicapping page for their members via weekly educational posts on the Race of the Week. The web page is sponsored by the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and is yet another way our members and group is trying to spread the word about the great sport of horse racing. Every week a handicapper from the TBA will handicap the Race of the Week and post his/her thoughts on a handicapping angle for the novice bettor. The first post was by yours truly on today’s Sunland Derby and can be found at the ThoroFan Handicappers’ Corner. I even plugged the NTRA webcast (no, I haven’t been taking anything). Also, on the ThoroFan homepage is a nice historical piece on the Sunland Derby from Allan Carter, a ThoroFan Board Member, and the Historian of the National Museum of Racing in Saratoga Springs.

ThoroFan's Mission is very much aligned with that of the TBA, which makes this collaboration work. The mission of ThoroFan is as follows: "The mission of the Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association, Inc. is to foster the growth of the thoroughbred racing industry by providing racing fans with an organization that will actively support their interests."

Make sure you check out my fellow TBA fellow handicappers’ posts each week. The TBA is a must stop where you can pick up the latest blog posts from TBA members, non-TBA members, videos, pictures, the TKS poll of the week including past poll results and free past performances. If you are into social networking, make sure you follow us on Twitter (over 1,340 followers) and/or join our Facebook fan page (over 190 847 fans).

Good luck with the Sunland Derby today and thanks for reading.

Mr. Sandman, bring me a winner

Tweet It's breakfast at Wimbledon for racing fans....I'd call it the Duel in the Desert, but there's really no big duel being touted on the Sheikh's biggest race day of the year. Not that we have one in the works here in the States (now that the Apple Bottom Jeans Handicap has been hijacked by Jess Jackson). So we turn our heads to the Middle East on Saturday morning for Dubai World Cup Day. Typically it's a great day of racing climaxed by the $10M Dubai World Cup, the richest race of the year. It's kinda like the NASCAR guys running the Daytona 500 (their biggest race) in February, but it is what it is..so why not take a look.

Here's the lineup (and link to FREE PP's for each race!) and a bit of commentary for your reading pleasure (or angst)....

Race 2 (9:20am EST) Al Quoz Sprint 6 furlong turf sprint for $1 million dollars (queue Dr. Evil voice). Named after the Dubai prince who founded Quiznos. The star horse here, our own Breeders' Cup champ California Flag with Smokin' Joe Talamo aboard. Joe's been enjoying the beach (do they have sand there?) and water park during his stay. Dude, stay focused. Will the Breeders' Cup 2010 jinx continue? Tune in and see.

Race 3 (9:55am EST) Godolphin Mile 1 mile on the Tapeta for a cool million. The morning line favorite is Desert Party who won a G3 stake here at the Meydan Racecourse after a ten month layoff since his last where he finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby. Flyin Frankie Dettori gets the nod for the Sheikh.

Race 4 (10:35am EST) UAE Derby 1 3/16th mile on the Tapeta for $2 million doubloons. The heavy favorite is Mendip (5-2), who is 3 for 3 and is a Kentucky Derby hopeful. This race should produce at least two horses that could be in the gates on the first Saturday in May.

Race 5 (11:15am EST) Golden Shaheen 6 furlong sprint on the Tapeta for $2 bills. Reminds me of my favorite Buffalo restaurant of the 80's called the Shabeen. So, I'll be calling it the Golden Shabeen and toasting the old Irish haunt I frequented back in the day. But I digress. Maybe the one race that pits a potential duel between the Sheikh's Gayego, who has had success on the fake stuff and US hopeful Kinsale King. Interesting duel between Gomez on KK and Dettori on Gayego, also.

Race 6 (11:55am EST) Dubai Duty Free 1 1/8 mile on the Turf for $5 million smackers. Looks like a wide open race. Spaceman fav Justenuffhumor, 30-1 on the morning line, joins BC Mile runner up Courageous Cat (6-1) and Pletcher's Take the Points (10-1) in the battle to beat ML favorite Imbongi (9-2) who has a win and a place in back to back Grade 2's at Meydan. I remember like it was yesterday with the Cat reared up in the paddock before the Mile at Santa Anita and went out and ran a great race behind the powerful Goldikova.

Race 7 (12:35pm EST) Dubai Sheema Classic 1 1/2 mile on the Turf for $5 million beans. Features perennial runner up Youmzain (9-2) and North America's favorite front runner Presious Passion (9-2 and Elvis will be in the building). Eastern Anthem interests me at 8-1 in here. Big bucks race for some big turfers.

Race 8 (1:45pm EST) The Big Enchilada 1 1/4 mile on the Tapeta for TEN FREAKIN' MILLION BONES. Gio Ponti! Twice Over! Mastery! Richard's Kid! Gitano Hernando! Live on TVG! (Sorry, got a little excited there) This should be a super race, again pretty wide open. So who's the long shot who interests me in here? Johnny V on Crowded House...third off the layoff, experience over the course, and should be a nice price. The world's best jockeys have shown up to try and collect a nice chunk of change in this one. Nice to see Ramon make the trip to ride Gio Ponti.

Should be a great start to a great Saturday of racing....

Stalled, Never Left Gate

Tweet ......is exactly what my chart notes would be for the last few weeks. Why you ask? What possibly could have me distracted from the racing blog I've maintained for the past two years (well, almost 2 years...next week). Well let me tell you why.....

- I'm running an NCAA Calcutta (complete with blog). A contest I run annually in which participants (same 8 squads for 12 straight years) select two teams per bracket in an auction bid draft night. Of course, I have never won said contest, but have always written a daily log of the results (we've moved from emails to blog). It's actually the reason I started the racing blog, as some of the guys enjoyed some of my banter about the teams, etc.

- Tax season is taking its toll. Three weeks to go. This year being my 25th busy season has been one of the hardest in recent memory. I thought it was supposed to get easier.

- I'm working on a double secret project (not really) with Thorofan, which we're hoping to roll out in the next week or so.

- My gamblers anonymous classes seem to be extending their meetings longer than usual (just kidding).

- I attended the NCAA first and second rounds which were held here in Buffalo last week. I experienced thorough enjoyment of the 'Cuse's play and the city's showing as throngs of hoops fans traipsed through our town. (Could also be the reason I'm behind at work). I also hosted my entire family from Syracuse who were up for the games and my daughter's birthday.

- The NTRA webcast came off smoothly (so they say) so no one to make fun of this week.

- I contributed to a 25 cent Pick 6 today that our group played for $36 at Beulah Park (I just contributed, no handicapping involved) and just checked the results. Knocked out in the second race. Though I find it cool that they have a quarter Pick 6 at Beulah. By the way, it paid about $2,100 beans.

- The Space Gal Stables is in 164th place in the Road to the Roses contest (out of 18,000 plus contestants). Lots of strutting here in the Space Station. I'm in about 4,000th place or something. She leads the HRF league and is in second in the TBA league. It could be a long spring.

Ok...hopefully we'll get out of the gate later this week...stay tuned. I'm usually better second time out.

Paragallo Case on Friday's Today Show

Tweet The Paragallo case made the Today show on Friday in a five minute segment. They contacted me a few weeks ago and asked if they could use my video clip of EscapedfromNewYork arriving at Old Friends in April last year. They used it and you can see it at 3:52 of the clip below. It's amazing the recovery some of the horses have made....check it out below:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Hoso: The Other Super Filly of 1975

Tweet My annual tax meeting with my pal GG is typically the usual exchange of information followed by an hour of horse talk. He's one of the best handicappers I know (I've bragged about his cappin' prowess in previous posts - see Giacomo Derby trifecta), but I never really knew how deep in his blood the Sport of Kings really was. A few weeks ago you may remember, I met the good doctor from UB who was telling me racing stories, and I remember he mentioned a fellow Buffalonian who turned him onto racing 30 plus years ago. Now some people call Buffalo "one big room" and this was just one of those moments. The good doc mentioned the name "Roxie Gian" to me and I pondered for a second whether he could be related to my pal, GG? Come to know it, it was GG's grandfather, a real estate and construction tycoon from Buffalo who loved the ponies and owned a terrific filly who had a great run in 1975, a year where a certain filly captured the nation's fancy.


What made it even more special was the scrap book that he brought with him, a family heirloom, which he left with me to read about the one super horse that his grandfather, Roxie, treasured more than any other horse he ever owned. The horse's name was Hoso (love the War Admiral in her pedigree). In early 1974 after breaking a track record at Hialeah Race Track going 5 furlongs in 57 4/5 and winning by 11 lengths, Roxie Gian purchased the two year filly by Solo Landing, out of Holly-0 for $250,000. He purchased her from Guy Burt, who said after selling Hoso, "I had been turning down offers my horses for years, after Holly-O beat Moccasin I turned down half a million dollars for her. I rejected a bid for Solo Landing after he won the Swift. A couple other horses also brought big offers. When this one came up for Hoso, I decided I had better take it." (DRF, Fred Galiani, June 5, 1974) Within the scrap book I read three articles that put the "price at $175K", "more than $200K" and "reportedly paid $250K", records must have been a bit thin back then.

After winning another allowance race at Hialeah in April as a 3-5 favorite going 5 furlongs in 58 2/5, Gian shipped him up north of Buffalo to Woodbine to run in the 6 furlong My Dear Stakes. With Ron Turcotte aboard, Hoso handled the field of 7 by 3 1/2 lengths winning going away winning her third straight. Trainer Merrill said he was pleased that Hoso stayed off the fast early pace, "I told Ron we've got some fast horses in there and if he could lay second or third that would be good. I told him she would probably drift out in the stretch (she did). That's why I had that special bit on her." "She's green, it's too early to tell how good she'll be," said Turcotte.

Her next race was scheduled for Belmont Park and a matchup with a highly touted filly named Ruffian (!!!!) who had won her debut by 15 lengths. The morning line had Ruffian as the 7-5 favorite and Hoso at 2-1. In an unfortunate incident, the night before the race, Hoso became unnerved and rolled over in her stall breaking her cannon bone, thus she was scratched the morning of the The Fashion, a 5 1/2 furlong sprint, that Ruffian won going away.

In February 1975, Hoso bounced back in her second race of her 3yo season (after being upset in her 1975 debut in January by Laughing Bridge) beautiful Hialeah in the $33,150 Jasmine Stakes, where she ran 6 furlongs in 1:09 2/5 (winning by 5 1/2 lengths) with Mickey Solomone up, she grabbed the lead after the first half furlong and never looked back. The owner of second place longshot Iris Star said "My filly ran well, but I never had a chance to catch the one in front." A filly named Sun and Snow happened to finish 7th (more on her later).

Milt Dunnell in a column in the Toronto Star on February 14, 1975 wrote "if she hadn't been hurt, trainer Merrill believes she would have been one of the best-known fillies as a two year old. There was one 2 year old filly that every racing buff knew. That was Ruffian, undefeated until she, too suffered a hairline fracture. Ironically, Hoso was in New York to run against Ruffian, when she was injured. They may meet eventually as 3 year olds. Ruffian is not back to the races yet, but she is galloping every day in South Carolina."

A week later on February 19th, in front of 15,525 at Hialeah she bested a field of 14 as the odds-on favorite by 6 lengths in winning the $33,600 Camellia Stakes and suddenly was on the trail to the Kentucky Oaks and the first Friday in May. Joe Hirsch wrote in the DRF before the race, "Roxie Gian's Hoso is a bullet on four wheels, but can she carry her speed an extra furlong?" She paid $3.60 to win and beat major challenger Aunt Jin handily. After the race, Hirsch wrote, "Hoso was simply sensational. If Hoso can do that to Aunt Jin, how good is she?"

Next up was the 9 furlong Poinsettia Stakes and another large field of 12 fillies, going two turns for the first time. "My filly is as good as she has ever been or perhaps even better, trainer Merrill said, I don't think that she will have any trouble getting the distance." (DRF, Jack Smallwood, March 1, 1975) After opening up an eight length lead, she coasted to a two length victory over Sun and Snow (there's that name again) to win her third straight Hialeah stakes race on the closing day of the 50th anniversary meeting at odds of 3/5. "She won with authority", jockey Solomone said, "She might have got a little tired. But she was being asked to go a quarter mile more than ever before. I hand rode her to the eighth pole. Then I hit her once and threatened her once." "I wouldn't take a half million for her," owner Roxie Gian said in the paddock. The price undoubtedly went up another half million a few minutes later. (Miami Herald, Luther Evans, March 5, 1975.)

The biggest race in the young filly's career loomed in the third running of the $199,550 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park facing five other fillies. Going off at 4/5 odds, she won by 1/2 length over Luxury, wiring the 9 furlong race over an off track. "The only thing that bothered me before the race was the track condition, said trainer Frank Merrill. Hoso had never run on an "off" track before. She's been in Florida where it's warm, and so that concerned me. Now after the race the only thing that concerned me was Roxie. I thought he was going to have another heart attack. He popped a nitroglycerine pill right at the finish, I'm glad the horse won or the pill might not have worked!" (DRF, Don Grisham, April 2, 1975).

In the final prep race for the Kentucky Oaks, Hoso was upset by 10-1 shot High Estimate in the 7 furlong La Troienne at Churchill Downs, a week before the Oaks.

Before the Oaks, Gian was interviewed by Hirsch and commented, "I've been offered almost $1 million for her, not by one group but by three. But I don't want to sell her. A man gets a horse like this once in a lifetime. I've had some nice horses with Frank Merrill over the past 20 years. Chic Miss, Mooney, Puss n' Boots and All View each earned over $100K. But there has never been anything like Hoso." (DRF, Hirsch, April 25, 1975)

Hoso went off as the 6/5 favorite in the Oaks on May 2, 1975, a day before Foolish Pleasure would win the Derby, but it wasn't her day. Starting from post position 11, jockey Solomone took her to the lead a quarter mile into the race, from their she faded to last place. "As far as I'm concerned, it wasn't a race at all. Down the stretch Hoso swung deep to the outside, nearly seven shoulders from the rest of the pack. Everything was out of my control. With this horse, you just get on and hope she stays between the fences." (Lexington Courier-Journal, Tom Patterson, May 3, 1975). Sun and Snow won the 1975 Kentucky Oaks.

After the Oaks, Gian decided against taking her on the New York circuit to face the legendary Ruffian, and returned her to Canada to race at Fort Erie where 12,000 cheered her on to an allowance victory in July 1975 with Sandy Hawley aboard. She would run in the Cotillion Stakes in August at Keystone Park, finishing fifth.

GG is very proud of his grandfather and the accomplishments of the wonder filly Hoso. I'm glad he took the time to share it with me. I hope you enjoyed the story of Hoso. And by the way, Roxie ended up selling her for that $1 million bucks....

The Aftermath

Tweet If you're a Rachel Alexandra fan or just the IT guy in charge of the live stream at the NTRA....please....just step away from the ledge. It's going to be ok.

Lots of folks would peg me as an East Coast homie for Raitch, but to be honest, I'm just a fan. I had a feeling (and called it...well kinda) based on the way his connections were talking ("she's not 100 percent fit") that they were setting us up for a not so Rachel-like performance. But that's racing. I don't believe for a second that they will retire her like some folks do, only 'cause there's 3 million reasons for her to give it a go on April 9th in Hot Springs. Zenyatta, who I think is fantastic and awe-inspiring, still has questions away from her sweet spot on the West Coast, won going away today. Of course, she has been training terrifically and split the seems beautifully in winning the Santa Margarita for her 15th straight win. Smith was magnificent guiding her through traffic (I do wonder if he was riding at Aqueduct in the 70s if the NY jocks would let him through like that) and she showed her championship form in winning. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the Race for the Ages doesn't fall apart at the seems. JJ was talking about a triple tiara of races, so to back out after a prep race seems a bit absurd to me, so I'm not buying it.

As for the NTRA's much ballyhooed live stream of the races by his highness....well...um...Free and Easy? You get what you pay for, I guess. Did you really expect it to come off smoothly? It's not any different when you post a comment over there, it shows up about a week later, so why would anyone think it was going to go smoothly. Just another feather in our fearless leader's cap. Thank goodness for ESPNews, who decided today to, at least, pick up Zenyatta's race. I am fortunate (and semi-smart enough) to have a TwinSpires account which enabled me to see the Fair Grounds on HD live. Which was lucky today since my live stream of my HRTV internet account was interrupted by bad weather in NYC. Speaking of lucky.....

My #1 pick in the wireplayers.com Derby Dozen poll, Lookin at Lucky showed the recent west coast form on Oaklawn dirt (see Gayego and Papa Clem - h/t to sidfernando) winning the Rebel taking out a game Noble's Promise (another synth horse) in the stretch. If not for the bad post position in the BC Juvenile Lucky would be undefeated right now. Let's hope he stays healthy. My pick, Dublin, ran a decent race, but I'll have to go back to the drawing board to see what went wrong.

Odysseus showed his muster in an incredible stretch run (those were some tired horses) to grab victory from the jaws of defeat from Schoolyard Dreams at the wire to win his first try in a graded stake. The king of Ithaca didn't take 10 years to get home in this one in battling back after losing the lead in the stretch. One to watch.

The Space Gal Stables RTTR squad had a tremendous day with 3 winners (Odysseus, Lucky and Sidney's Candy in the San Felipe) and a third (Caracortado) with a win from both Gomez and Baffert. She's en fuego. As for yours truly, welcome to Buffalo (queue You're as Cold as Ice from Foreigner).

Remember....don't jump.

Rock Me Amadeus

Tweet If you can't get excited about racing this weekend, I don't know what to tell ya. Saturday is action-packed from coast to coast and I know I'll be glued to my computer with racing form in hand all afternoon. Let's take a trip around the US and A, in the Space Shuttle to see what's in store.....starting on the East Coast with the Sunshine State.

Tampa Bay Downs. A pretty nifty late Pick 4 shaping up with four straight stakes races starting in race 8 ( the Hillsborough Stakes - G3) featuring the ever present Mushka and Lady Shakespeare. The second leg is the Florida Oaks (G3) featuring Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly champ She Be Wild, where she'll take another crack at the real stuff after a 5th place finish in the Forward Gal further south at Gulfstream. The third leg is the Turf Dash Stakes with Tampa track favorite Musket Man trying a turf sprint, Ramon Dominguez flying down for the mount. The last leg is the meet's signature race, the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Ramon takes the mount on Pletcher's Super Saver and this will be the first real class test for highly touted Odysseus. This Pick 4 looks like my must-play for Saturday.

Pointing the Space Shuttle westerly along the Gulf Coast for a stop in New Orleans and the Fair Grounds will highlight the return of the 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies S. Off since the Woodward last September, this Apple Blossom prep will show us how the rest has treated her. I predicted back around New Years that she would lose a race this year (when Zenyatta was unofficially retired), this could be the spot after the long layoff, although it's highly doubtful. Not much else on the card excited me so I headed up Route 65 North to.....

Oaklawn Park. A couple good preps for the Oaks and Derby, respectively will be run in Hot Springs on Saturday. The G3 Honeybee is an Oaks prep for 3yo fillies and a couple horses we saw last summer at the Spa in Beautician and Decelerator as two year olds on opening day. Beautician finished second that day to Hot Dixie Chick and Decelerator (who I bet on) finished sixth after a bad start. The big race at Oaklawn, however, is the Rebel Stakes (G2) and a huge prep race on the road to Louisville. Lookin at Lucky (still my #1 on the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen) puts on shades and faces some formidable foes in Dublin and synthetic specialist Noble's Promise. I will be rooting for Dublin here (note rooting, not betting). So from here we'll jump on a 747 - and westward ho....to beautiful California and

Santa Anita Park. Movie Stars. Bubbling Crude. Zenyatta. The amazing Zen (my mouth is still open in the Santa Anita grandstand watching her make her patented move in the BC Classic) returns to the scene of the crime where she trounced the boys to become the first mare to win the Breeders' Cup Classic. She should destroy the field in the Santa Margarita (it'll be late in the afternoon on the East Coast...a margarita may be just the medicine depending how that Tampa Pick 4 ends up) taking on eight other fillies and mares going a mile and an eighth. But that's not it from LA, we've got another Derby prep in the San Felipe, a race that should separate the West Coast contenders from the pack. Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado will be out to prove that his last was no fluke and Kentucky is in his sights, but the competition looks tough. This could be the best race of the day with Derby hopeful Sidney's Candy (in the Space Gal's RTR stable), Lewis runner-up Dave in Dixie (I like this horse plenty) and American Lion (I don't like this horse plenty). The most intriguing horse in the field is Pletcher's Interactif, who comes off the turf after four straight to run on the Pro Ride. His last dirt race was the Sanford on Spa day 2 last July.

This is as rockin' a racing weekend can get....

Cheltenham Festival – Are You Ready For The Off?

Tweet Special report from EquiSpace:

Have you noticed yet? Spring is in the air, the lambs are frolicking in the fields, the daffodils are in bloom and as any horseracing fan knows, the arrival of the brighter weather means that a landmark event in the National Hunt calendar across the pond is almost upon us. The four day Cheltenham Festival begins on the 16th of March and the 26 eagerly anticipated races are sure to provide a thrills and excitement bonanza not just for the eager crowds of race goers at the Gloucestershire racecourse but also for betting fans around the country.

The Festival always generates a great deal of excitement and this year promises to be no different. Much of the talk has been about whether Ruby Walsh will outdo his exploits of last year when he won seven races over the four days of the Festival. Many will remember his guiding Kauto Star to victory in the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup as the highlight of last year’s Festival. Walsh will again be riding the same winning horse this year. Everyone is keen to see if Walsh will once again be the top jockey at Cheltenham. Certainly the online betting sites think that he can repeat the feat with odds of 1/2 being offered that he will again end the Festival with more winners than anyone else.

The Kildare man has now ridden 24 winners at the Festival and he is still only 31! In fact the odds must be that he will smash the all-time record for Festival wins that is currently held by the legendary Pat Taaffe. At present he is only one win behind Taaffe and it looks certain that he will become the top Festival jockey before the Festival draws to a close. He still has things to aim for though – he came very close to winning all four of the Championship races last year, just missing out in the Champion Hurdle when Punjabi won.

How will Walsh do in the Big Four this year? Here is a quick roundup:

Firstly, the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday pits Celestial Halo up against some really tough opposition in the shape of the strongly fancied, Go Native. If he can come up trumps in this race he will be off to a flying start.

On Wednesday, he will be riding Master Minded in the twelve fence Queen Mothers Champion Chase. He is an odds on favourite to win this race - it seems to be his for the taking with Kalahari King posing the only significant threat.

Thursday will see the Irishman bidding to win the three mile World Hurdle on Big Bucks. He won last year and is being strongly tipped to do the same thing this year. Could we see close rival Tidal Bay cause an upset?

Then there is Friday. Of all the races that Walsh will be participating in the one that is attracting the most attention is, of course, the Totesport Gold Cup. Run on the final day of the Festival each year, this race is viewed by many horse racing betting fans as the one of the most prestigious in the world.

The major threat to Kauto Star will be Denman who won the race in 2008. Both the horses are trained by Paul Nicholls, so there will be a huge amount of interest in who will win this clash of the titans. Kauto Star is the odds-on favorite with some online betting sites offering 4/1 on Denman.

It is the partnership of Somerset-based trainer Paul Nicholls and Walsh that has dominated the Festival scene in recent years. In total, Nicholls has 25 Cheltenham winners and horses that he has trained have won the Gold Cup in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The 2010 Festival could prove to be an even more successful one for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls. Possibly expect some new records to be set by this dynamic duo!

Wish List: Track Visits

Tweet I've been fortunate over the past few years to knock a few tracks off the wish list, but now it's time to document what should be the priorities over the next few years to complete a circuit of the major (the Kansas, Kentucky and UCLA's)and mid-major tracks (the Butlers and Gonzagas if you will). But in order to know where we stand on track visits, we'll have to put down where we've been....so here goes in order of Space Invasions:


Completed Track Visits: Saratoga, Woodbine, Gulfstream, Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, Fort Erie, Pimlico (simulcast only), Presque Isle Downs, Keeneland, Santa Anita and Aqueduct. 2009/10 has been a good year as we nailed 3 new tracks (KEE, OSA & AQU).

Wish List (in order of priority, not necessarily when they will happen):

1. Del Mar. After experiencing the beauty of Santa Anita, the desire to see Del Mar increased three-fold. I've never been to San Diego and the luxury of every day being 72-75 degrees is very enticing. It looks like a great track to watch the races...where the Surf meets the Turf. Difficulty level: High. Runs during Saratoga meet and requires a West Coast trip.

2. Arlington. Chicagoland, great turf racing and a serious grandstand. I hear the morning workouts are not to miss also. I love Chicago and haven't been there (other than passing through O'Hare or Midway) in several years. Difficulty level: Easy. Flights easy to come by and fellow TBA compadres Wind Gatherer and the ZATT man are locals that could show me the way.

3. Fair Grounds. Oh when the Saints.... Are you sensing a pattern here? San Diego, Chicago and now, New Awlins? Well, that's soon to come to a screeching halt at #4 (just kidding Sue). Lots of history here (so I've read), great Cajun jockeys/trainers and food to die for. Difficulty level: Moderate. Little tougher flight arrangements, potential Space Gal veto depending on my travel companions and need a week to prepare for the spicy food/drinking activities.

4. Lone Star Park. What, you say? Well, it's been good enough for the Breeders' Cup to hold it's annual soiree in 2004, right? One Texas based blogger has given us plenty to pine for down yonder....and who doesn't like margaritas? Difficulty level: Moderate. Client located in Austin, home of the Chuggin' Monkey, not too far away, with a little planning and foresight this could come together.

5. Meydan. Dubai World Cup. Sheikhs and geeks. This one's on the long range plan. Difficulty level: Off the charts. Analogy: Playing golf and 300 yards away from the pin, looking for a yardage marker to see if you can reach the green and you finally find a sprinkler that says - Just hit the ball.

6. Oaklawn Park. Man, if I could swing April 9th, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Real race fans, I hear, attend the Oaklawn meet. If I wasn't an accountant, this one could be had in a couple weeks. Difficulty level: High. Spring meet during my busiest time. Tough to get to from a logistical standpoint. 17 hours away so driving not a real option.

7. Hollywood Park. California. Sunshine. Cushion Track. (Well, 2 out of 3, isn't bad). Difficulty level: Really High. Could be a condo site next time I book a flight out west.

8. Delaware Park. Paddock looks beautiful. Some solid racing on certain weekends. Couple big races I'd like to take in someday (Del Cap and Del Oaks). Only horse I ever owned had her only race here and came in dead last. Difficulty level: Moderate. Not a bad drive. Potential side trip from a family vacation on Jersey Shore someday.

9. Laurel Park. Great turf course. Great city to visit (Baltimore). Maryland Millions Day is on "the list." Difficulty level: Low. Cheap flights on Southwest from Buffalo. Relatives in B'more. This one will happen.

10. Hialeah. Could have actually knocked this one off last month but ran out of time. Only quarter horse track on the list, but you know why it's here. Flight of the flamingos is a must see. Difficulty level: Low. Brother-in-law homestead and direct flights available.

Honorable Mention: Finger Lakes (c'mon it's 60 minutes down the road), Mountaineer (to see La Chica Rica, of course), Beulah Ellis Park (nicknamed the Pea Patch, I'd have to see it just because of that), Charles Town (night racing is intriguing), Tampa Bay Downs (love their track tweeter), Calder (could wear my Don Johnson blazer), Hawthorne (Chicago lite) and Pinnacle Race Course (quick drive through Canada - plenty of donuts/coffee available).

Who'd I miss? Where am I off my rocker?

La Chica Takes On The Boys

Tweet Seven year old mare La Chica Rica will take on the boys at Mountaineer Park in her 2010 debut tomorrow night (Friday) in Race 9. Western NY-based Bella Cavello's Stables' star will take on some pretty rugged competition in her return to the races after a seven month layoff. The race, at a distance she has had past success at, will be run at 5 1/2 furlongs where she is 5-2-1 in 9 tries. Chica, the highest lifetime earner in the field, is currently the fourth choice on the morning line behind Harlan Street (8/5), Flavor (9/5) and Run Brother Ron (4-1). Jareth Loveberry (that could so be my stripper name) has the mount on the Rich Girl. While the Stable is looking for this to be a nice prep for a race next month against F&M's, she'll definitely have her hands full running against the likes of Harlan Street, who is 4 for 4 at Mountaineer and 6 for 13 lifetime. Flavor, cuts back in distance and has some nice speed figures and has is also undefeated (1 for 1) over the course. Run Brother Run looks to be out on the lead early and should set the pace. It's good to be blogging about Chica again as she is a huge favorite of this site. The race goes off at 10:20 EST if you're watching from home. Good luck!

Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen, Volume IV

Tweet One of the things I really like about Steve Munday's Derby Dozen (editors note: I'm a participant so this is totally biased) is the use of the Roman Numeral for his bi-weekly Volumes. Now typically only Olympiads and Super Bowls are allowed to use this status, but I think it's cool that we have some roman numeraling going on in the horse game. On an aside for Super Bowl 40 I was an XL and for Super Bowl 50 I'm hoping to return to L status. The other interesting thing he does with his poll, that's a little different from the many other Derby Polls out there is he has some fun with each of the selections, allowing each of the ten participants to add a quote or comment on the horse (see below). In Volume I on January 20th, my comment on Eskendereya was "Named after a flirty Egyptian dance where you wear a bourka. I'm in." Sound familiar? My #12 horse this week was Fly Down, who won an allowance last week at Gulfstream, my comment: "XYZ". Stay tuned, he'll make the list someday.

So as we sit two weeks out from a Shamrock Shake and nearly eight weeks from Derby Day, here's Volume IV:

By The Numbers

Tweet I have been stalking the Guidestar website for the release of several IRS Form 990 tax filings over the past few weeks and finally this weekend the non-for-profit website had the NTRA's 2008 Form 990 posted. While the information is over a year old now (they didn't have to file the return on extension for 2008 until November 15, 2009) it was filed on November 10, 2009 by the CFO/Treasurer of the NTRA.

So while most folks are interested in the salaries being made, I like to look for other clues as to what happened in the finances of the "marketing arm" of thoroughbred horse racing and to determine how solvent they are. I actually agree with DeRosa's post and theories on paying for a rainmaker. I, too, would rather pay key executives a half million bucks if he/she can deliver seven figure deals or pay him/her for attaining goals and incentives that meet the mission of the organization. Sometimes you have to spend money to make money. So I won't be harping on how much Alexander M. Waldrop made ($425K for those who want to keep score), but how he managed the finances and where the focus of the money spent was pointed.

So let's start with the "income statement" and compare it to 2007 figures. I know it's stale, but it's all we have to work with (so stay with me here).....with commentary to follow...



So what did we learn from this little exercise?

- The NTRA lost about $3.3M (~$800K from NTRA Investments) in 2008.

- Revenue decreased by $4.6M basically due to the significant drop in membership revenue of approximately $2.6M. Per the 2008-2009 Annual Report at the NTRA website, this drop was due to the NTRA Board of Directors approving a 43% drop in Membership Dues in 2008.

- The other significant factor in the revenue decline was the loss of Dodge as a NTRA partner, which provided significant membership fee revenue ($3M) and sponsorship income ($1.1M) in 2007. This figure was a big fat zero in 2008, due to the economic stress felt in the automotive industry.

- Not only did the NTRA have a fall in revenues, but they also increased expenditures by almost $2M. I can pinpoint the majority of the increases related to marketing, advertising and promotion and the start-up of the Safety Alliance. I'll be looking for the Annual Report release for 2009, to see what they actually spent on the Alliance as the fee revenue of $15K per track will probably be a pittance in comparison to the expenses incurred.

- The Travel number of $400K seemed a bit high to me, but this is totally a gut feel.

Ok, let's take a look at the balance sheet next.....



Balance Sheet Highlights:

- Obviously the loss ate away at the cash balances available ($10M) and we'll be sure to see more come the 2009 statements with the Safety Alliance going full steam ahead.

- It would be interesting to see what the 5 year plan is as with a continued burn rate that they've been experiencing I'm more convinced than ever that they do have some serious financial issues and cash flow issues to deal with.

- The Annual Report consolidates its for-profit partner, NTRA Investments LLC which has over $5M of debt related to its 1999 acquisition of Winnercomm, Inc. (purchase of racing libraries, broadcast rights etc.).

- A mistake of about $246K was discovered in 2008, dating back about 7 years wherein 401K matching contributions were not properly made on bonus and commission pay in accordance with its plan document. Thus the 2007 financials had to be restated for this error (whoops Ernst & Young - paid $240K by the way for its audit and tax services) and the funds put into the shafted employees 401k accounts.

So that's a lot to chew on for one evening. The NTRA is not without its challenges. A drop in fee revenue, new expensive programs to tout and overall sponsorship revenue drying up due to the current state of the economy. What direction is the NTRA Board going?

We'll keep an eye out for the 2009 Annual Report and dissect the numbers when the annual audit report is issued. Stay tuned.