The Perfect Exacta

Tweet Always searching for that perfect martini, I received a call from the Saratoga Resident who gave me the perfect exacta for this Saturday's Preakness. "You have to play the 2 with the 5," my esteemed colleague passed on to me as he crossed the Twin Bridges after a tumultuous day in the life of the Saratoga Resident. Of course that would be a Tres Borrachos - Behindatthebar perfect exacta or perfecta as they say in West Virginia. I had to chuckle as the Resident certainly is no Pletcher fan, but he is a fan of the cocktail, and tends to refer to some of his friends as #1, #2 and #3. Of course if my name was Byrn...he could have said Hey Byrn there's Three Drunks behindthebar [sic] and we'd have the perfect trifecta. Anyways, it's best we both stick to our day jobs and the search for the perfect martini.

The search to cash a Preakness exacta ticket (with some value of course) is underway. It's been a good day for me over the past three years, cashing a $75 Afleet Alex-Scrappy T exacta in 2005 and a Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint $86 exacta in 2006. It's been a fruitful and fulfilling day in the past. Last year, unfortunately, I couldn't get past my horse crush on Hard Spun that left me in the red during Curlin's coming out party. The issue is that the Big Brown delivery truck is going to be bet down to 1-5 or less, so unless a bomb comes in second there will not be much value in the exacta as there was on Derby Day.

The contenders I am currently favoring are Ichabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Giant Moon. I'm still struggling with Gayego, and will need more thought before discussing him. Our friend from Sleepy Hollow has a win over the Pimlico surface, has top-notch jock Jeremy Rose (won in 2005 on Alex, third in 2006 on Hemingway's Key), is trained by Graham Motion and has moved forward nicely since his debut in November at Aqueduct. He beat Mint Lane in the Tesio, who ran a pretty good 2nd in the Peter Pan against Casino Drive at Belmont last Saturday, so he has been tested. He has AP Indy in the bloodlines, so the route pedigree is present. Hey Byrn, winner of the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream faced BB in Florida, and has been freshened not having raced for 35 days. He should be a factor in the exotics. Giant Moon ran in the foggy Gotham finishing 47 lengths back, then rebounded somewhat in the Wood against Tale of Ekati (4th in the Derby) and the injured War Pass. The NY-bred 2YO of the year is on my radar.

Trying to figure out the potential exotic plays [trifectas, p4] will be challenging. Also, it may pay to keep an eye on the show pool. If you remember the Tampa Bay Derby, War Pass was bet down to 1-10 and didn't hit the board. A $2 show wager on the other 7 horses in the race ($14) returned $129.40 or a profit of $115.40. So if you think BB misses hitting the board entirely by bouncing (possible based on the RAG sheets [negative 1], Thoro-Graph Reports or just plain ole' 2 weeks rest after monster performance), think show pool.

Weekend Notes

Tweet It was an interesting weekend of racing and I am happy to report that Bella Cavello's star mare La Chica Rica won her second straight race, this time in a 4 1/2 furlong sprint at Charles Town on Saturday night. She paid $4.60 for the win and held off a challenge down the stretch from post-time favorite Monster Image, pulling away for a 4 length victory under Travis L. Dunkelberger, who rode his fourth winner of the evening. The victory adds another $20K to the lifetime earnings of Chica, who has $298K of lifetime earnings. We'll keep you abreast as to her next race. The stable sends M.E.'s Smile off at Atlantic City on Thursday. Interesting to note that Atlantic City Racecourse runs turf races for two weeks a year, six races a day through May 2nd. Unfortunately, as outlined in the Bloodhorse, this could be the last meet staged there.

The big Derby prep over the weekend yielded yet another weekend victory for Todd Pletcher, where Behindatthebar had a sterling run to catch the frontrunning Samba Rooster. David Flores jockeyed a tremendous final furlong catching three horses in the final stretch run. It appears that Behindathebar will probably point at the Preakness even though he has the graded stakes to qualify for the Derby. I liked his numbers and thought he would place behind Atoned, another Pletcher entry that failed to qualify for the Derby in his last attempt. Tomcito, didn't take to the poly and appears to be looking at the Preakness or better yet, the Belmont, which would make more sense given his running style.

The other big Derby news coming out of the Zito camp, is that War Pass was sidelined with a fractured bone in his ankle, detected on Friday via X-rays. This shakes up the predicted early hot pace and will lead to great speculation as to how the race will unfold without him in it. Unfortunately it also kills my Futures #3 ticket at 14-1. Damn.

Saw "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" yesterday and wondering what was with all the frontal male nudity? Wish First Saturday in May was shown locally, made some pitches to the local indie theatres here in Bflo, but to no avail, guess I'll have to grab the DVD.

Photo credit: The Bloodhorse

Le Name Game

Tweet Four weeks ago we brought home our first dog (after 44 years) and had to come up with a name for him. We let my eight year son give him his middle name and let the family decide what the first name should be. Because of his brown fur it came down between Cappucino and Tanner, and the consensus went with Tanner. Well my son has the basketball jones…so what better way to complete his name, than Tanner Jones.

I then started wondering if there were any horses out there named Tanner Jones. I went to a horse pedigree inquiry site and found that there were five Tanners, but no Tanner Joneses. So much for keeping up with the Joneses. None appear to be standouts, but one had a sire named Financial Matter (hey I'm a CPA), and one had a dam named Days Like This (pretty cool). Anyways, it started me thinking further (dangerous thing) about what I would name a horse. My pal, The Saratoga Resident, said I should name it "Don't Do That!" which is what he always tells me while out on the road together. I was thinking more of something like "areyoufreakinkiddinme" which would be a great race call down the stretch. Or how about "Boots with the Fur?" Yep, time to hang it up.

After reading another horse racing blogsite where the group named a race at Aqueduct for $300, it piqued my interest to see what it would cost at Saratoga. I received the following email reply from a NYRA customer service representative who stated:

"On the day of the event the name of your personalized race will appear in the Post Parade magazine. A few minutes prior to your race a representative of the Customer Service office will escort you to a trackside location for viewing and then upon completion you'll step into the Winner's Circle along with 9 of your friends. There you'll present the winning jockey or trainer with a commemorative Irish crystal picture frame. The frame is yours to keep along with (1) complimentary (8"x10") color photo of your group taken by the Official track photographer. The photo, which includes the personalized name of your race, is usually mailed within 1-2 weeks time. Additional photos can be purchased thru the track photographer."

All for the EDLP of $1,000!

The Blue Grass Stakes draw was very interesting and trying to handicap these horses on the synthetic track at Keeneland will surely be a challenge. Most of the top tier horses have the necessary graded earnings to qualify for the Derby, it will be the second tier of horses needing the win badly. I actually hope Pyro gets beat here, mainly so his price will improve for the Derby, as I think a closer in the right spot might just steal it on 03MAY with the amount of speed that should be out there. (i.e War Pass, Recapturetheglory, Big Brown, etc.). I will be keeping a close eye on Cool Coal Man, Big Truck and Visionaire to see how they run against a quality field.

The Color of Money

Tweet After ten years of running an NCAA Calcutta pool, with last night's OT victory by Kansas, the Commish finally cashed a winning ticket returning a whopping $5.20, for a return of 6.5%. As my pal, the Saratoga Resident, says “First you cash the ticket, then you complain about how little it is.” Known throughout the Western New York area as the Loser of Office Pools, most local corporations recruit me for their pools, knowing I possess a long losing streak. In the two NCAA bracket pools entered I placed a solid 34th out of 35 (of course, last place paid), and 68th out of 99 in the second. Even my lovely bride, the Space Gal, came in 24th….ugh. Funnier yet, the Masters Office Pool was circulated via email yesterday and in the email body was the following message from one of my managers: "Also, for a little guidance, you can ask Geno who he is planning on picking. That will give you five players to avoid right off the start." My status is legendary. Then the day was topped off with my $20 square at the local watering hole having the numbers 7 and 7. Hilarious, that I've been in so many Super Bowl square pools and never have drawn those two numbers, but of course, in a basketball setting: bingo. Maybe cashing on the Calcutta will change my luck…..yeah right.

Bella Cavello Update: The boys at BC Stables have Cool Pleasures (by Stravinsky, out of Stolen Pleasures) running in the 8th on the grass (mile) at Laurel on Thursday from the 10 hole, Eric Camacho up. The five year old returns to the grass after running several sprints on the dirt for trainer Crystal Pickett.

Update to KD Futures blog: Cool Coal Man ended up at 19-1 ($5 bet), Court Vision ended up at 18-1 ($10 bet) and as War Pass inched up to 14-1, I took a late flyer ($10 bet) on him. I hope he runs...

Hunting for a Futures Price

Tweet After a scintillating day of upsets, the Derby picture is not as vivid as hoped to be. Only Colonel John won as expected at Santa Anita. Tale of Ekati caught a tiring War Pass (amazing early fractions) in the final furlong in the Wood and Recapturetheglory stole the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne with an impressive win. My attempt in trying to play "beat the favorite" ended up resulting in a classic case of "right club, wrong zip code." And that's why they call it gambling.

Today being the last day for Futures Pool #3 it is time to go hunting for a value bet for a horse whose odds will likely be lower on the tote board on 03MAY. Several horses that had rough outings on Saturday (El Gato Malo, Atoned and Denis of Cork) could be on the outside looking in, based on the latest graded stakes earnings listing for racing through yesterday. One trainer mostly noticeable on the bottom of the list is that of one Todd Pletcher (five horses in last year's Derby), is in jeopardy of not having a horse qualify.

So after some quick analysis, I decided to drop a tenspot on Court Vision (22-1 as of this am). He finished strong from the outside after being five wide and my gut tells me that Gomez is due for a Derby winner. On a hunch, I decided to also drop a fin on Cool Coal Man (21-1), trained by Nick Zito, who will be running at Keeneland next weekend in the Blue Grass. If only I had Biff's sports almanac from Back to the Future II.

Funny tidbit I heard from one of my partners today: The average American walks about 900 miles a year. Another study found Americans drink, on average, 22 gallons of alcohol a year. That means, on average, Americans get about 41 miles to the gallon. Kind Of Makes You Proud To Be An American.