The Perfect Exacta

Tweet Always searching for that perfect martini, I received a call from the Saratoga Resident who gave me the perfect exacta for this Saturday's Preakness. "You have to play the 2 with the 5," my esteemed colleague passed on to me as he crossed the Twin Bridges after a tumultuous day in the life of the Saratoga Resident. Of course that would be a Tres Borrachos - Behindatthebar perfect exacta or perfecta as they say in West Virginia. I had to chuckle as the Resident certainly is no Pletcher fan, but he is a fan of the cocktail, and tends to refer to some of his friends as #1, #2 and #3. Of course if my name was Byrn...he could have said Hey Byrn there's Three Drunks behindthebar [sic] and we'd have the perfect trifecta. Anyways, it's best we both stick to our day jobs and the search for the perfect martini.

The search to cash a Preakness exacta ticket (with some value of course) is underway. It's been a good day for me over the past three years, cashing a $75 Afleet Alex-Scrappy T exacta in 2005 and a Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint $86 exacta in 2006. It's been a fruitful and fulfilling day in the past. Last year, unfortunately, I couldn't get past my horse crush on Hard Spun that left me in the red during Curlin's coming out party. The issue is that the Big Brown delivery truck is going to be bet down to 1-5 or less, so unless a bomb comes in second there will not be much value in the exacta as there was on Derby Day.

The contenders I am currently favoring are Ichabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Giant Moon. I'm still struggling with Gayego, and will need more thought before discussing him. Our friend from Sleepy Hollow has a win over the Pimlico surface, has top-notch jock Jeremy Rose (won in 2005 on Alex, third in 2006 on Hemingway's Key), is trained by Graham Motion and has moved forward nicely since his debut in November at Aqueduct. He beat Mint Lane in the Tesio, who ran a pretty good 2nd in the Peter Pan against Casino Drive at Belmont last Saturday, so he has been tested. He has AP Indy in the bloodlines, so the route pedigree is present. Hey Byrn, winner of the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream faced BB in Florida, and has been freshened not having raced for 35 days. He should be a factor in the exotics. Giant Moon ran in the foggy Gotham finishing 47 lengths back, then rebounded somewhat in the Wood against Tale of Ekati (4th in the Derby) and the injured War Pass. The NY-bred 2YO of the year is on my radar.

Trying to figure out the potential exotic plays [trifectas, p4] will be challenging. Also, it may pay to keep an eye on the show pool. If you remember the Tampa Bay Derby, War Pass was bet down to 1-10 and didn't hit the board. A $2 show wager on the other 7 horses in the race ($14) returned $129.40 or a profit of $115.40. So if you think BB misses hitting the board entirely by bouncing (possible based on the RAG sheets [negative 1], Thoro-Graph Reports or just plain ole' 2 weeks rest after monster performance), think show pool.

Weekend Notes

Tweet It was an interesting weekend of racing and I am happy to report that Bella Cavello's star mare La Chica Rica won her second straight race, this time in a 4 1/2 furlong sprint at Charles Town on Saturday night. She paid $4.60 for the win and held off a challenge down the stretch from post-time favorite Monster Image, pulling away for a 4 length victory under Travis L. Dunkelberger, who rode his fourth winner of the evening. The victory adds another $20K to the lifetime earnings of Chica, who has $298K of lifetime earnings. We'll keep you abreast as to her next race. The stable sends M.E.'s Smile off at Atlantic City on Thursday. Interesting to note that Atlantic City Racecourse runs turf races for two weeks a year, six races a day through May 2nd. Unfortunately, as outlined in the Bloodhorse, this could be the last meet staged there.

The big Derby prep over the weekend yielded yet another weekend victory for Todd Pletcher, where Behindatthebar had a sterling run to catch the frontrunning Samba Rooster. David Flores jockeyed a tremendous final furlong catching three horses in the final stretch run. It appears that Behindathebar will probably point at the Preakness even though he has the graded stakes to qualify for the Derby. I liked his numbers and thought he would place behind Atoned, another Pletcher entry that failed to qualify for the Derby in his last attempt. Tomcito, didn't take to the poly and appears to be looking at the Preakness or better yet, the Belmont, which would make more sense given his running style.

The other big Derby news coming out of the Zito camp, is that War Pass was sidelined with a fractured bone in his ankle, detected on Friday via X-rays. This shakes up the predicted early hot pace and will lead to great speculation as to how the race will unfold without him in it. Unfortunately it also kills my Futures #3 ticket at 14-1. Damn.

Saw "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" yesterday and wondering what was with all the frontal male nudity? Wish First Saturday in May was shown locally, made some pitches to the local indie theatres here in Bflo, but to no avail, guess I'll have to grab the DVD.

Photo credit: The Bloodhorse

Last Dance

Tweet It's the Last Dance for a last chance at the Derby and it's the Lexington Stakes (G2) from Keeneland on Saturday. After a big day last Saturday, Pletcher sends Atoned back to work to try and capture enough graded earnings to make the Derby cut. Atoned (by Repent out of Amidst) was the second choice to Denis of Cork (also could be on the outside looking in) in the Illinois Derby chart notes. With Prado on board again for Todd, he'll try to win back to back Saturday stakes for the trainer whose horse he jumped off of for the Derby, trading Monba in for Adriano as Dick Powell points out today. We'll see how he handles the poly, but he had a decent work on Sunday over the synthetics. A couple of other interesting quirks to this race include the entry of Salute the Sarge by Eric Guillot (an interesting chap) who goes two turns for the first time. The Sarge earned most of his graded dollars as a two year old, another bone of contention with many with respect to who qualifies to run in the Derby. The Peruvian horse, Tomcito, whose connections appear to be desparately trying to get into the Derby, is also entered. He, too, needs this race badly to qualify, but based on viewing his last race, the Florida Derby, in my humble opinion he seems more likely to be a Preakness or Belmont horse going the extra distance. A couple of horses I am liking at a price in this race are Behindatthebar (and not for the reasons you might be thinking), another Pletcher horse with David Flores up, who has raced fairly consistently over the synthetics and has won at this distance, Big Glen and Riley Tucker. Big Glen won the Rushaway at Turfway Park over Miner's Claim in late March and has faced formidable competition over his career. Riley Tucker, with Johnny V up, placed at Keeneland two weeks ago on an off the turf stakes and also has faced decent competition.

With all that being said, I'm sticking with Pletcher this week and looking elsewhere regarding Tomcito and the Sarge:

1 - Atoned, 2 - Behindatthebar, 3 - Riley Tucker, 4 - Big Glen

Then again, I picked Daisy over Ambre in Rock of Love 2, so what do I know?

Bella Cavello Update: The star of the stable, La Chica Rica, winner at Mountaineer last month with a BSF of 96, will ratchet it back to 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town on Saturday in a $33K allowance (Race 8) and will most likely be the post time favorite. A big showing here could push her closer to the $300K lifetime earnings mark.