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It's the Last Dance for a last chance at the Derby and it's the Lexington Stakes (G2) from Keeneland on Saturday. After a big day last Saturday, Pletcher sends Atoned back to work to try and capture enough graded earnings to make the Derby cut. Atoned (by Repent out of Amidst) was the second choice to Denis of Cork (also could be on the outside looking in) in the Illinois Derby chart notes. With Prado on board again for Todd, he'll try to win back to back Saturday stakes for the trainer whose horse he jumped off of for the Derby, trading Monba in for Adriano as Dick Powell points out today. We'll see how he handles the poly, but he had a decent work on Sunday over the synthetics. A couple of other interesting quirks to this race include the entry of Salute the Sarge by Eric Guillot (an interesting chap) who goes two turns for the first time. The Sarge earned most of his graded dollars as a two year old, another bone of contention with many with respect to who qualifies to run in the Derby. The Peruvian horse, Tomcito, whose connections appear to be desparately trying to get into the Derby, is also entered. He, too, needs this race badly to qualify, but based on viewing his last race, the Florida Derby, in my humble opinion he seems more likely to be a Preakness or Belmont horse going the extra distance. A couple of horses I am liking at a price in this race are Behindatthebar (and not for the reasons you might be thinking), another Pletcher horse with David Flores up, who has raced fairly consistently over the synthetics and has won at this distance, Big Glen and Riley Tucker. Big Glen won the Rushaway at Turfway Park over Miner's Claim in late March and has faced formidable competition over his career. Riley Tucker, with Johnny V up, placed at Keeneland two weeks ago on an off the turf stakes and also has faced decent competition.
With all that being said, I'm sticking with Pletcher this week and looking elsewhere regarding Tomcito and the Sarge:
1 - Atoned, 2 - Behindatthebar, 3 - Riley Tucker, 4 - Big Glen
Then again, I picked Daisy over Ambre in Rock of Love 2, so what do I know?
Bella Cavello Update: The star of the stable, La Chica Rica, winner at Mountaineer last month with a BSF of 96, will ratchet it back to 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town on Saturday in a $33K allowance (Race 8) and will most likely be the post time favorite. A big showing here could push her closer to the $300K lifetime earnings mark.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Last Dance
Friday, April 4, 2008
Preps Should Clear Derby Picture
Three major graded stakes headline Saturday’s Derby Prep races at the Big A, Hawthorne and Santa Anita. Things will begin to come into focus after the three races to be televised nationally on NBC Saturday afternoon. With some serious graded stakes coin available, it’s do or die for some hopefuls that are on the bubble. Top Trainer Todd Pletcher tries to improve some of his horses' graded earnings with horses entered in each prep.
Wood Memorial (GI) – With potential wet weather looming for the NYC area on Saturday, it makes ‘capping the 84th running of the Wood at Aqueduct all the more difficult. With Mott putting in coupled entry INNER LIGHT, into the mix, there appears to be lots of speed to keep WAR PASS and GIANT MOON company during the early fractions. While WP crushed the field at Monmouth in the slop last October, there appears to be lots of early speed, which could open things up for COURT VISION and potentially TEXAS WILDCATTER (Pletcher horse). All eyes will be on the Juvie champ to see if he can rebound from the abysmal performance (although I think CV pulled him back once he knew he was finished) in the Tampa Bay Derby. I like that Gomez shipped in for the race and Court Vision here. Selections: 1- Court Vision 2- Texas Wildcatter 3 – War Pass
Illinois Derby (G2) – Everyone seems to love DENIS OF CORK, and it appears his last was a “key” race with both place and show horses winning their next out. ATONED, with $60K in graded stakes, really needs to be big here and I think Todd likes the spot here for him. He was edged out by Big Truck in the Tampa Derby, but was right there in the stretch. I’m not too keen on Z HUMOR, who has his fifth jockey riding him in stakes competition. He didn’t show me much in the FOY and although he has had some decent works since then, I’m not buying. I look to either GOLDEN SPIKES (blinkers off) or RECAPTURETHEGLORY, to round off the tri. I’m going to go with Todd though in this one, as I think it’s his best chance to be running in four weeks and he will pull out all stops for this one. Selections: 1 – Atoned 2 – Denis of Cork 3 – Golden Spikes
Santa Anita Derby (G1) – The 71st running of the Santa Anita Derby and first on synthetics on paper is a rematch of the Sham Stakes’ winner COLONEL JOHN and runner-up EL GATO MALO. Similar to the Wood, a couple speed horses, BOB BLACK JACK and POLONIUS, should head to the front early. Pletcher sends ON THE VIRG into his first stakes action with Todd Baze up. There’s a chance BBJ could wire this thing, but I am looking for the upset of the day here and YANKEE BRAVO, to enjoy the speed dual in front and steal one at the wire under Alex Solis. YB at $50K in graded earnings also needs an excellent showing to make it to Louisville. Of course, leaving Col. John out of the money means he’ll probably win. Interesting that Gomez jumps off the Colonel to ride Court Vision back east. Selections: 1 – Yankee Bravo 2 – El Gato Malo 3 – Bob Black Jack
Wood Memorial (GI) – With potential wet weather looming for the NYC area on Saturday, it makes ‘capping the 84th running of the Wood at Aqueduct all the more difficult. With Mott putting in coupled entry INNER LIGHT, into the mix, there appears to be lots of speed to keep WAR PASS and GIANT MOON company during the early fractions. While WP crushed the field at Monmouth in the slop last October, there appears to be lots of early speed, which could open things up for COURT VISION and potentially TEXAS WILDCATTER (Pletcher horse). All eyes will be on the Juvie champ to see if he can rebound from the abysmal performance (although I think CV pulled him back once he knew he was finished) in the Tampa Bay Derby. I like that Gomez shipped in for the race and Court Vision here. Selections: 1- Court Vision 2- Texas Wildcatter 3 – War Pass
Illinois Derby (G2) – Everyone seems to love DENIS OF CORK, and it appears his last was a “key” race with both place and show horses winning their next out. ATONED, with $60K in graded stakes, really needs to be big here and I think Todd likes the spot here for him. He was edged out by Big Truck in the Tampa Derby, but was right there in the stretch. I’m not too keen on Z HUMOR, who has his fifth jockey riding him in stakes competition. He didn’t show me much in the FOY and although he has had some decent works since then, I’m not buying. I look to either GOLDEN SPIKES (blinkers off) or RECAPTURETHEGLORY, to round off the tri. I’m going to go with Todd though in this one, as I think it’s his best chance to be running in four weeks and he will pull out all stops for this one. Selections: 1 – Atoned 2 – Denis of Cork 3 – Golden Spikes
Santa Anita Derby (G1) – The 71st running of the Santa Anita Derby and first on synthetics on paper is a rematch of the Sham Stakes’ winner COLONEL JOHN and runner-up EL GATO MALO. Similar to the Wood, a couple speed horses, BOB BLACK JACK and POLONIUS, should head to the front early. Pletcher sends ON THE VIRG into his first stakes action with Todd Baze up. There’s a chance BBJ could wire this thing, but I am looking for the upset of the day here and YANKEE BRAVO, to enjoy the speed dual in front and steal one at the wire under Alex Solis. YB at $50K in graded earnings also needs an excellent showing to make it to Louisville. Of course, leaving Col. John out of the money means he’ll probably win. Interesting that Gomez jumps off the Colonel to ride Court Vision back east. Selections: 1 – Yankee Bravo 2 – El Gato Malo 3 – Bob Black Jack
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