RSS Feed for this Blog
RSS Feed for all TBA Posts

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

The Perfect Exacta

Always searching for that perfect martini, I received a call from the Saratoga Resident who gave me the perfect exacta for this Saturday's Preakness. "You have to play the 2 with the 5," my esteemed colleague passed on to me as he crossed the Twin Bridges after a tumultuous day in the life of the Saratoga Resident. Of course that would be a Tres Borrachos - Behindatthebar perfect exacta or perfecta as they say in West Virginia. I had to chuckle as the Resident certainly is no Pletcher fan, but he is a fan of the cocktail, and tends to refer to some of his friends as #1, #2 and #3. Of course if my name was Byrn...he could have said Hey Byrn there's Three Drunks behindthebar [sic] and we'd have the perfect trifecta. Anyways, it's best we both stick to our day jobs and the search for the perfect martini.

The search to cash a Preakness exacta ticket (with some value of course) is underway. It's been a good day for me over the past three years, cashing a $75 Afleet Alex-Scrappy T exacta in 2005 and a Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint $86 exacta in 2006. It's been a fruitful and fulfilling day in the past. Last year, unfortunately, I couldn't get past my horse crush on Hard Spun that left me in the red during Curlin's coming out party. The issue is that the Big Brown delivery truck is going to be bet down to 1-5 or less, so unless a bomb comes in second there will not be much value in the exacta as there was on Derby Day.
The contenders I am currently favoring are Ichabad Crane, Hey Byrn and Giant Moon. I'm still struggling with Gayego, and will need more thought before discussing him. Our friend from Sleepy Hollow has a win over the Pimlico surface, has top-notch jock Jeremy Rose (won in 2005 on Alex, third in 2006 on Hemingway's Key), is trained by Graham Motion and has moved forward nicely since his debut in November at Aqueduct. He beat Mint Lane in the Tesio, who ran a pretty good 2nd in the Peter Pan against Casino Drive at Belmont last Saturday, so he has been tested. He has AP Indy in the bloodlines, so the route pedigree is present. Hey Byrn, winner of the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream faced BB in Florida, and has been freshened not having raced for 35 days. He should be a factor in the exotics. Giant Moon ran in the foggy Gotham finishing 47 lengths back, then rebounded somewhat in the Wood against Tale of Ekati (4th in the Derby) and the injured War Pass. The NY-bred 2YO of the year is on my radar.
Trying to figure out the potential exotic plays [trifectas, p4] will be challenging. Also, it may pay to keep an eye on the show pool. If you remember the Tampa Bay Derby, War Pass was bet down to 1-10 and didn't hit the board. A $2 show wager on the other 7 horses in the race ($14) returned $129.40 or a profit of $115.40. So if you think BB misses hitting the board entirely by bouncing (possible based on the RAG sheets [negative 1], Thoro-Graph Reports or just plain ole' 2 weeks rest after monster performance), think show pool.



blogger templates 3 columns | Make Money Online