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Thursday, May 15, 2008

Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Fun

Remember the old Doublemint slogan, "double your pleasure, double your gum?" Well, tomorrow's big double play is the Pimlico Special/Preakness double. The Special/Preakness double is back after a year hiatus when the Black-Eyed Susan was the front end of the double. When looking at the Special it has an interesting mix of older horses who have had exceptional careers running in some major races. The question on the back end is do you single Big Brown (off to stud) due to the weak competition in the Preakness and increase the bet size? The three horses I favor in the Special are AP Arrow (#4, 5-2 ML) second in the Donn at Gulfstream in February bya 1/2 length and well rested at age 6, Grasshopper (#7, 3-1 ML), he of the big dual with Street Sense last year at the Travers, who ran 3 weeks back at Belmont and has been part of the exacta in 9 of his last 10 races (included the last 5 in graded stakes), and Temporary Saint (#9, 10-1 ML), with Johnny V up. The Saint last raced in early April at Aqueduct winning the Excelsior and has shown improving figs over the past six months. While I am a Wanderin Boy (#6, 8-1 ML) fan, I just don't see him running back so quickly at age 7, after the energy expended in the slop on Oaks Day, and am not convinced that Student Council (#3, 6-1 ML) will run back to previous form, first time on dirt since last September when he won the Hawthorne Gold Cup. Xchanger hasn't proven he can go this distance and will be the likely early speed. Gottcha Gold (#2, 9-2 ML) has won some G3's, but he has the class and speed figs to pull an upset, so I'm throwing him in also.

The other way to catch some value is obviously to beat the Big Brown Machine. The only other horse that I think has a chance is Gayego (G2 winner in Ark Derby), thus we'll play a second ticket with him and my top four and a saver with Student Council.

So I'm thinking the following:

$10 Double: 2,4,7,9 with 7 (Big Brown) cost $40
$2 Double: 2,4,7,9 with 12 (Gayego) cost $8
$2 Double: 3 with 7, 12 cost $4

Double your pleasure, double your fun...

1 Comment:

Anonymous said...

Tanner Jones likes AP Arrow to win.


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