Top 5 Things - Belmont Edition

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As I was snoozing at my parent's house in the 'Cuse, after spending two of the last three weekends at major racing venues my mind started to wander (dangerous, I know). I wondered what would it take for me to miss the Belmont Stakes, a race day I love to attend as much as any other...of course a list came to mind.

What would be the Top 5 things that would keep me away?

1. Family Commitment or Event. Easy one here....the fam always comes first. This would include weddings, graduations, dance recitals (Space Filly), Space Kid ball games, selected funerals and a sick dog. Nothing shocking here...most bases covered.

2. Sabres Stanley Cup-clinching game. I have seen Lord Stanley's Cup grace the ice at Buffalo's HSBC Arena...I'd just like to see the good guys carry it around the ice. As a long suffering Buffalo fan for over 25 years, this would make me pass on the third jewel (although if it were a Triple Crown year I might think twice).

3. Livin' it up at the Hotel California. If the Space Gal wanted to do a trip and it was the only weekend she could swing it. Plus, I hear it's a lovely place.

4. Vegas. Do I need to explain? Speaking of the Space Gal...she's already planning for my big 5-0 in a few years to be a Breeders' Cup weekend in Vegas with my pals. How cool is that? November 2013 at the Mirage...mark your calendar.

5. Meet and Greet including dinner with one of my childhood idols. The list? A) Brooks Robinson; B) the late Johnny Unitas; C) Muhammad Ali; D) Dr. J; or E) the late Pete Maravich. I debated on a couple here: Smokin' Joe Frazier, Howard Cosell, David Cassidy and Steve Carlton all receiving votes.

I can't think of much else that would keep me away, other than a work commitment, natural disaster or invitation from the President to play the ponies together....how about you?

Preakness Weekend: Did You Love Shack?

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Ever since his solid performance in the Florida Derby all I can think about is two pretty good  college hoop players with the surname Shackleford, whenever I heard his name.

One, Dale Shackleford, was a star for my hometown Syracuse Orangemen, who went all the way to the Final Four in 1975 before being unseated by powerful Kentucky in the semis.

The other player was Lynn Shackleford who was on the Lew Alcindor/Lucious Allen UCLA juggernaut teams of the great John Wooden in the late 60s.  But I digress.

I was on Shackleford earlier in the week, but got spooked and left him off my plays. The other five horses I used in all of my exotic wagers finished 2nd through 6th. Looks like I need to hit the books again as my bet structure has been horrible. I probably should have read what I wrote in The News on Friday: 

"Fourth-place finisher and early Derby pacesetter Shackleford is 12-1 in the morning line and may covet the 1/16 mile less distance the Preakness offers in contrast to the Derby. He's run two giant races back to back and also stands to make a $550,000 bonus with a victory for his participation in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby."

Regardless of the wagering results, I had a terrific time in Baltimore seeing a lot of friends and meeting several new folks who I've only met online through social media or the blogosphere. Racing people are generally some of the nicest people you'll ever meet, that's for sure. I consider myself lucky to know so many people who share my passion and enjoy the game so much.

My post race commentary piece can be found here.

I found myself at the hotel bar on Saturday night sitting next to two sets of friends, two fellows from Oklahoma City sat on my right, were being tortured by the Thunder, but as enthusiastic as they come. On my left side sat two young servicemen who were heading overseas to Afghanistan on Sunday afternoon.

Let's just say the servicemen put everything in perspective for me. They are a big reason we get to enjoy the freedoms we sometimes take for granted, like going to the track on big racedays. They were real inquisitive about horse racing and asked about a million questions, which I was more than happy to answer each one. I hope they come home safe in November, their scheduled return timeframe.

I did my usual snapping of amateurish pictures during my time at Pimlico, so I hope you enjoy them...

Pimlico Third Floor Grandstand

Row of Winners Banners

Stakes Barn

Royal Delta holds off Buster's Ready in the BES

Lookin at Lucky Jockey Statue

Andy Beyer interviewing a tree



The Baffert Chill Photo



Old Fashioned Pimlico Tote Board

Hammerin' Hank & Jerry Bailey

Nick Zito supervising Dialed In's Bath Time

Jeannine Edwards doing the  ESPN morning report

Shared Account grazing

Infield Tunnel

NVL Volleyball Competitors

Hotspur on the Infield's Main Stage

Be Legendary

Jager Stage - Notice the Photo Finish on the Big Screen

Who said Bow Ties are out of style?

Shameless A-B Plug

Sippin a Susan

Packed Infield

Gallorette Gate Break

No Explaining Takes the Gallorette

Baryshnikov trying to hold off Paddy in the Dixie

Paddy O'Prado wins his last career race

Preakness Third Place Finisher Astology in Preakness Paddock

Derby Champ Animal Kingdom in Post Parade

They're Off in the 136th Edition of the Preakness

Flashpoint leads over Shackleford on backside (see famous weather vane)

The Coronation

That's a wrap from Baltimore...on to New York in what could be a very good horse race if things come together....

Bejeweled

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The second jewel of the Triple Crown will be awarded today and the horse to the left is hoping it matches the one he already holds! Animal Kingdom arrived this morning at 6:45 a.m. at Pimlico from Fair Hill and he looks terrific.

I happened to catch him getting his morning bath along the shedrow before he disappeared back into Stall 40, the traditional home of the Kentucky Derby champ.

We'll be using the Animal along with our top selection Mucho Macho Man and mixing in Sway Away, Dialed In and I'm starting to warm up to Dance City. I hold a BES/Preakness double ticket containing all five.

It's been a photogenic kind of week for me, Joe DePaolo from Horse Racing Nation and Fast Times at Belmont Park chatted with myself and the Michigan-Bred Claimer yesterday outside the Preakness press box.

I'll be live blogging today at The Buffalo News' Sports, Ink blog, so check out how my day is progressing as I'll be roaming the grandstand and will venture out to InfieldFest late this morning.

Mucho Macho Man

I love how Mucho Macho Man looked this morning, very relaxed and calm. Remember another Macho Uno colt did fairly well in this race several years ago when Macho Again finished second to Big Brown.

While some have soured on Sway Away, I think this might be his breakout race and there's always a newcomer who shows up on the board in the Preakness.

Have a great Preakness Day!

Black-Eyed Susan Day

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Susan Dey - Partridge Extraordinaire

BALTIMORE - It's the annual Black-Eyed Susan Day Photoshop post!

It comes but once a year, the day before the second jewel of the Triple Crown. I know, I know, channeling my inner twelve year old again. But it's good for a chuckle or two every year.

We've got a post up online in the Sports, Ink blog of The Buffalo News breaking down the race that you can check out here.

The remainder of the card looks pretty rock solid with a total of six stakes races, including the BES. One race I really miss that typically was run on Black-Eyed Susan day is the Pimlico Special for handicap horses.

The Special's list of winning horses is a Who's Who of racing royalty. Horses who won the Special include War Admiral, Seabiscuit, Whirlaway, Citation, Assault, Cigar, Skip Away, Real Quiet, Mineshaft and Invasor. The race has only been run once in the last five years, with Student Council winning in 2008. The 1938 race was the famous match race between War Admiral and Seabiscuit as featured in the full-length film.

Today's races include an all-stakes late Pick 4 (50-cent minimum) starting with the Ms. Preakness (Race 9), in addition to the first half of a BES/Preakness double bet. Pimlico is also offering rolling 50-cent Pick 3's throughout the card, so the wagering menu looks juicy.

We'll be live blogging the Preakness Day card starting late morning tomorrow at the Sports, Ink blog as we did on Derby Day, so stop by and check out updates from Baltimore as the day progresses.  Here are my thoughts on the big race.

Good luck and have a great weekend!

Mondays are for Mudders

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I forayed into unchartered territory today when I fulfilled a request made several months ago by Fort Erie Race Track media maven, Elissa Blowe. I met her last winter when I took a trip over the Peace Bridge to interview her for a story about the Fort's new RaceBook for The News. She asked me if I wanted to be her co-host and guest handicapper on one of the simulcasts during the coming season. I accepted and she contacted me last month and we decided on today for my TV debut.

I did my homework and prepared for the probable off track, doing my handicapping and making notes on Saturday night so I wouldn't embarrass her during my camera time. I watched Sunday's races in the slop so I had a beat on the track. I watched replays of some of my selections.

The comedy factor was high, at least. I commented that it looked like one trainer was "just looking to pick up a check" and I picked against (threw out) the all-time favorite Fort Erie horse.  It was a great experience and I can say straight out, that it is a very difficult job. I have newfound respect for the guys and gals on TV who do it for a living. I'd like to try it again though, now that I know what to expect. I really appreciated the opportunity.

The bonus of the day was that I was able to sit with a group of gentlemen from Woodbine and the Daily Racing Form for the remainder of the day in the Turfside Terrace. Not a bad way to spend an afternoon. They had some great stories and we talked about the Queen's Plate and Canadian racing as a whole while playing the ponies and having a beverage or two.

My weekend handicapping was a tad better than on Monday. I entered both the 10-race TVG NHC Contest and the 8-race Equibase Handicapping Challenge, both online contests. I finished 170th out of approximately 3,300 in the NHC contest with $81.50 (ROI $4.08).  Not too shabby.  I was really sniffing it in the Equibase contest where I finished 10th overall out of approximately 1,600 contestants, picking four winners and two placings. My big pick was Every Ego, a 25-1 winner where my win bet was capped at $42 in both contests. My Equibase contest total was $111.70 (ROI $6.98). I was in 9th going into the last race at Hollywood, but my first time starter Magic School broke badly and then recovered late for third. A good one to file away for his next race.

We have a busy rest of the week with a Thursday Sports, Ink blog on the Black-Eyed Susan; a Preakness advance Friday for The Buffalo News; we'll do our annual Black Eyed Susan Dey blog here Friday; Live Blog from Pimlico at Sports, Ink on Saturday; and wrap with a Sunday column in The News.

Hope to see you in Baltimore!

Doin' the Downs

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A+  for Wardrobe Coordination

It's been a couple days of decompression since getting back into the B-Lo from Louisville. The Space Gal and I left late Saturday night after filing this column for The Buffalo News to cut our trip in half so we could relieve the in-laws of kid duties by noon on Sunday.

We had a great trip and met several folks that I've corresponded, tweeted and facebooked with over the past three years. It was great meeting Derek Brown, Brian Zipse and Ian Lozada for the first time and seeing my pal Steve Munday from Wireplayers.com again. It's great meeting folks and discussing racing that have the same passion as I do and learning from them.  In this game, there's always new information to process and a different way to look at things.  We also met up with some ThoroFans on Friday, one who is thinking of starting up the Kentucky chapter.

As far as the handicapping went, we sniffed it all weekend but no grand results. I picked Plum Pretty second behind Zazu for the paper, so I felt pretty good about that. Oaks Day was beautiful and much more relaxing for me as I didn't have any assignments and wanted to spend as much time with the Space Gal as I could.

Sunday was a different story as I was live blogging the day's card and making a $2WPS selection for each race and maintaining a live bankroll online. We were struggling five races into the card down about $23 trying to catch a price, but I rebounded with two wins, two places and a show to finish with a positive $19 ($2.58 ROI).  My two winners were Regally Ready and Aviate, both of whom I was high on. My Derby selection was Mucho Macho Man, and he didn't let me down finishing third and paying $7 for the show.  I used Animal Kingdom underneath in the exotics (in second and third positions) as promised in my Friday advance for The News. I felt good that I at least mentioned him in the article as a live longshot (based mainly on his workout during Derby week). Alas for me, I didn't use him on top and had the next two positions covered in tris and exactas.

It was a great experience and seasoned writers like Hal Habib (Palm Beach Post) and TimWilkin (Albany Times-Union) were both extremely helpful as I navigated waters I have never swam in. I look forward to the Preakness experience in Baltimore in two weeks.

As for Animal Kingdom, I eat my words from my Uninspired post, although I did mention the visual move he made that day, I just wished I trusted my gut more and focused more on the 93 Beyer on the Turfway polytrack being huge in comparison to dirt Beyers. A little more homework on my part may have paid off...there are some things you just can't find in the Form (or PPs) or a spreadsheet, for that matter.  The pace should be significantly different in the Preakness, which will make the handicapping all the more interesting to figure out.

I was really impressed with Shackleford and thought for a minute that he was going to take the thing down.  He looked incredible in the paddock (see picture that the Space Gal took below) and I came away impressed with his performance.

Speaking of pictures, here are some from the weekend.....

Derby Post Parade

PEB board

Animal Kingdom



Nehro



Shackleford

Pants on Fire & Rosie Napravnik

Sassy Image wins the Humana

Diva Ash & Kent Desormeaux win the Edgewood

Oaks Day - Pinkage

Twin Spires from the Winner's Circle

Kentucky Oaks - First Time By

Plum Pretty - Ky Oaks champion

That's a wrap.  No big eloquent post about my experience...just...it was cool....it was fun...and boy, was it educational.

Pictures Courtesy: Space Gal Enterprises.

Charts and Scientific Games

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Kentucky Derby 137 Chart by Race Position
(click on chart to enlarge)



I was messing around today and put together a quick chart to see who was making the biggest moves both forward and backward at the end of the race. It shows the chart positions at the six points of call during Saturday's Derby.  Interesting stuff, look at the late runs by Master of Hounds and Santiva to get to 5th and 6th respectively, both could prove dangerous on Belmont day. The pace wasn't right for Dialed In or Twice the Appeal who both show the hockey stick curvature upwards with their late moves.  



Speaking of statistics, a math guy got a hold of my spreadsheet and went all standard deviation on me.  While I was at the Derby I received an email and copy of my spreadsheet file with the following message:

"Here is my update of the excellent spreadsheet. I have attempted to analyze the speed data and post position data to come up with some kind of number reflecting speed, consistency and post position.

In the sheet I inserted a tab which shows the following, I took the three latest Beyer #’s and weighted them 100% for the most recent, 80 percent for the second and 60% for the third and divided by 3 to come up with a number. (Master of Hounds had two Timeform #’s. In my research it is the general rule to deduct 12-14 from the Timeform to equate to a Beyer, I took 15 just to be sure). Then I took the Standard Deviation of the three Beyer #’s to come up with a measure of consistency. Then I attempted to establish a Trend factor – that is, if the horse consistently improved speed over the last three races, it got a Trend of 3, if it ran slower in each succeeding race it got a 0, if it ran faster the last race but had run slower in the 2nd race from the first it got a 2.

So, if a horse has a 3 Trend, I added 25% of the Standard Deviation to the score, a 2 did not add the Standard Deviation and a score of 1 or 0 and I subtracted 25% of the Standard Deviation. This rewards for consistency of improvement and penalizes for a horse that has consistently ran slower.

Then, I took that score and added 25% of the Percentage in the Money from Post Position, to give a bonus for horses that have a statistically significant positive post position. That makes up my final number, Weighted Speed Consistency plus Post Bonus.

As Franie Bagodonuts (name changed to protect the innocent) reminded me, this ignores lots of factors you horse guys know and use, like impact of the poly track etc…but it is an attempt to use the data from the original spreadsheet to help make a decision about the horses in the race. I’d be interested in your comments or thoughts on any obvious flaws etc.  So, there you have it. Many thanks to Geno for the original spreadsheet and hope he doesn’t mind my tinkering with it."

So his final figures came up with the following ranking:
1 - Archarcharch
2 - Mucho Macho Man
3 - Nehro
4 - Twinspired
5 - Master of Hounds
10 - Animal Kingdom

Not too shabby actually, with three of the top five, and Archarcharch should be discounted because of his post draw, he was a real threat before drawing the rail. So no, I don't mind that you changed my spreadsheet and I may have you do a little math on it next year for kicks.  Hope you find it as interesting as I did.