Mountless in Louisville

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If you were in need of a top quality jockey in Louisville, you wouldn't need to look up "Jockeys" in your yellow pages (do they still make yellow pages?).  There are plenty of high quality jockeys on the outside looking in at this year's edition of the First Saturday in May. This will make the horse betting all the more interesting with a number of rookie Derby riders in the race.

Let's take a rundown of the current jockeys sitting on the sidelines waiting for a call.....

1. Garret Gomez - While he's never won a Derby race, he is one of the best in the business, but found himself riding horses in the prep races that have fallen by the wayside (i.e., Joes Blazing Aaron) or didn't make the graded earnings cut. In the last two Derbys his mounts were Lookin at Lucky and PioneeroftheNile, two darn good horses. His best shot to get in would be if Anthony's Cross gets off the bubble (currently sitting at No. 21 on the graded stakes list) where he most likely would get the call, as he rode him last year three times.  [UPDATE (4/29): Gomez gets mount on Master of Hounds]

2. Rafael Bejarano - SoCal riding champ who rode Line of David last year and Papa Clem in 2009, like Gomez is looking for his first breakout Triple Crown series victory. His best shot was Bench Points, who finished a disappointing seventh in the Santa Anita Derby. [UPDATE (5/2): Raf gets mount on Watch Me Go]


3. Kent Desormeaux - Last jockey to win the Kentucky Derby not named Calvin Borel. Granted he's had his issues over the past year, he's won Triple Crown races in the past, most recently with Big Brown and Summer Bird.

4. Edgar Prado - Won the Derby in 2006 on Barbaro and has struggled to obtain mounts in the big races since. A veteran rider who has a Derby under his belt, will be sitting out this year's run for the roses.

5. Javier Castellano - Had one of the best meets ever at Saratoga last summer and has big race experience (Breeders' Cup winning jock) and a Preakness (Bernardini) under his belt.  [UPDATE (5/3): Javy gets mount on Derby Kitten]

Some other jockeys warranting mention that are mountless include Chantal Sutherland, Elvis Trujillo and Joey Bravo, all decent jockeys in their own right.  The difference this year is that some Derby rookies have emerged depleting the available mounts, namely Jon Court, Eddie Castro, Jesus Castanon, Rosie Napravnik and Kerwin Clark,

There's still the question as to who will ride Master of Hounds for Aidan O'Brien, we'll see if the Goose is summoned out of the bullpen...

Wax On, Wax Off

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It's the time of year where hard work and solid studying will pay off. Ask Daniel-son, who had to be Mr. Miyagi's personal slave, but it resulted in the All Valley Karate Tournament Championship.  It's time to sweep the leg and find a Kentucky Derby winner.

It can be very rewarding if you put together the right exotic wager, whether it's the $2 exacta which has averaged over $1,400 over the last 11 years or the $0.10 superfecta. I'm going for the triple this year, it's been the one bet that keeps alluding me.  Last year I had the first two spots, but no Paddy. Two years ago I had PioneeroftheNile and Musket Man in the second and third slots, but no Mine That Bird.

I read somewhere that you should have two speed/stalker types and two closers in your exotics. Interesting and we'll keep that in mind when building our trifecta bet this year. In 2006 the last Derby I attended in person, the two deep closers, Steppenwolfer and Jazil completed the tri and super respectively. Playing the closers can be dangerous due to the traffic issues caused in the Derby (see 2010 - Ice Box).

Let's hope it stays dry this year after the last two years in the slop. So what have we noted so far in during our studies? One horse that has been cast aside after his poor showing in the Florida Derby is Soldat. I spend time looking at each horse and watching his races and looking into the pedigree to see if there are any hidden nuggets. Soldat's dam sire was Coronado's Quest, winner of the Remsen S., Nashua S., Travers S., Wood Memorial, Haskell Invitational and the Riva Ridge. Not too shabby. Looks like his underneath pedigree has what it takes. Mixed with his sire War Front's speed, he is one to consider. He also has a nice wet Tomlinson, so if comes up wet, he should be in the mix.  Is he my Derby horse? Too early to tell, but interesting nuggets.

Ok...time to go Paint The Fence...

Rejuvenatin'

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If you've noticed it's been a tad quiet around these parts, just take a look at the calendar...tax day has now passed and we're back in the blog saddle again. I've been keeping the Derby spreadsheet updated (see sidebar link), and this weekend's Beyers have been added for those who ran in the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes.

I included Archarcharch in last week's Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen poll submission at No. 11, but unfortunately didn't back him at the windows on Saturday. I was at a dinner party so I didn't even watch the race until Sunday morning on the most excellent Equibase Racing Yearbook app for the iPhone/iPad. I was impressed by both Archarcharch and Nehro's late run, but it only proves they can get 9 furlongs, the extra furlong is the big mystery in the handicapping puzzle we'll try and sort out over the next 2 1/2 weeks.

I posted a recap of the weekend stakes and my Finger Lakes visit Saturday afternoon at my Sports, Ink Blog at The News. We had a group of about ten gents with us at the track, eight of whom were at an all-night poker party on Canandaigua Lake whom were mostly new to the track. I had fun helping them with the different bets, utilizing the iTote Calculator app to calculate the wager totals. We had a show pool going, that died in the 5th, we had some thrilling moments fooling around with that. Overall, it was great not looking at a tax form or sitting behind a desk!

I met Peter Borelli (@WNYHorseRacing on twitter) who organized Steven Crist's visit and was fortunate enough to spend 10-15 minutes with Pete and Steve. It was great meeting him again (this time we weren't at a Mobil station in Saratoga) and we talked about a wide range of topics from bloggers in the basement, breaking the 4 hour barrier to the Spa (me from Bflo, him from LI) to the Blue Grass. He posted a positive recap of his trip to the Finger (my pal GG loves calling it the Thumb) and the fundraiser for the Finger Lakes Thoroughbred Adoption Program.

We didn't play too many of the nine straight 4.5 furlong races on the sloppy FL track, concentrating on Keeneland and Tampa most of the afternoon. The Saratoga Resident and I did receive a funny text from the Puma in Clifton Park, who called Finger Lakes "the April place to be."

So we'll get the blog back rejuvenatin' in the days leading up to the Oaks and Derby and hopefully we can make some sense out of the nonsensical trail we've witnessed so far.

Here's a look from the slop at Finger Lakes:


Joseph's Mia taking the 6th at the Finger.



One of Those Days & SpaceSheet 2.0

Tweet Yesterday was one of those days.  You know the ones I'm talking about. Where you just shouldn't get out of bed? My Sunday, the only day during tax season that I can actually sleep in a little, started with the Space Kid deciding he was ready to rock and roll at 6:15am. No problem.  I like the kid, so it wasn't all that bad.  Things went steadily downhill from there.

I walked downstairs and saw that my beloved puppy had left me a lovely present at the foot of the stairs. He's had his buddy, my in-laws dog, spending the weekend with us, so he's been a little out of sorts and eating the wrong food all weekend.  OK, not so bad.

I proceeded to take Tanner Jones out for our morning walk (after the clean up) and to pick up my morning paper, the one that I write for, and someone had swiped it. Or the paper-man (there's no such thing as paperboys anymore) didn't enjoy my last tip.  Strike three -- all before 6:30am.

The day continued to move forward without incident and the kids actually went down nicely for naps and the Space Gal headed out shopping.  Ahh....the house all to myself, time to fire up TVG and Keeneland and make a few wagers and recover from a so-so Saturday at the windows. 

The race on the screen was the third from Keeneland. Instead of playing my usual Pick 3, it looked like a hittable trifecta and I liked three horses. Could box 'em for 50 cents for 3 beans and call it a day.  Decided to go 2x3x5 and play a $6 ticket as I thought only the 2 and 4 could win and used the 1 in the second position with 2 other longer shots in the three hole.  The 2 and 4 end up being favorites at 5/2 and 2/1, respectively and the 1 drifts to 6/1 from ML of 9/2. I make the bet.  Well, at least I thought I did.  Comes in 4-1-2. Hey $29...not bad, I'll take a good start to my wagering day. Check my account. No increase in account balance.  Check today's bets. Nothing.  WTF. Heart races a little. Close computer. Deep breath.  Time to work on the SpaceSheet.  No reason to attempt a Strike 5.  And no, I didn't have a bet on Rory McIlroy, but I am Irish.

So when we decided it wouldn't be in our best interests to continue wagering, we started pulling together the annual SpaceSheet to unveil today and help me with my tri-weekly (is there such a thing) submission of my Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen. Talk about a list in shambles.

The Derby Trail is certainly more murky today, any type of analysis needs some studying.  Several years ago I put together an Excel spreadsheet of the 20 post positions and background statistics including pedigree, dosage, last three Beyer speed figs, AWD for sire/damsire and trainer/jockey information among other things. A sorta one-stop shop information guide to the Kentucky Derby. I was inspired by the book, Betting the Kentucky Derby, by Dean Keppler, who listed a number of key factors to consider when betting the run for the roses.

It's helped me in the past, no more than last year...see last year's prognostication!

I hope you enjoy the spreadsheet, I will continue to update up to the Derby. You'll notice it has some holes for BSFs for horses running in the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes next weekend. It is also located on my right sidebar under the "About Me" section for your viewing pleasure. I hope it comes in handy, and if you can think of anything that would be helpful to add, leave a comment.

Wood Day

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We're in a joyous mood this bright sunny Saturday morning in Buffalo, thanks to the guy to the left (Nathan Gerbe) who scored two goals last night for the Sabres in a playoff-clinching OT thriller against the Flyers.  Check out the awesomeness of his spin-o-rama goal in the third period in the clip at the end of the post.

It's Wood Day, unfortunately tax season has prevented me from attending the big day at the Big A.  But that doesn't mean we don't have opinions and such. We took a quick stab at the Guaranteed $500K Pick Four last night and came up with the following:

G3 Comely:  3-Her Smile (3-1) is my top choice with David Cohen up for trainer Leigh Delacour. Looking for her to continue to improve third off the layoff after two races at Tampa (one on the turf). Beaten last out by Wyomia, who goes later today in the Ashford at Keeneland.  Also using the NY-bred Hushion horse 5-Ava K. who tries graded company for the first time and the Pletcher horse 2-R Holiday Mood, winner of two straight.

G3 BayShore: 3-JJ's Lucky Train has done little wrong during his 3-year old campaign, has been at Aqueduct before and the place horse in his last outing won the non-graded $75K Private Terms at Laurel. We'll also include the Vindication colt 7-Vengeful Wildcat and 8-Royal Currier looking for a price. I'm throwing out Royal Currier's Hutcheson based on his horrible start and looking at past races at Aqueduct he was only beaten by a good colt, Fort Hughes in the Jimmy Winkfield.

G1 Carter: Best race on the card. What's not to like about 7-Apriority? Comes out of an optional race at Gulfstream for trainer David Fawkes and owner Donald Dizney. Going a little deeper in here with two more horses, the Pletcher/Dominguez 1-Calibrachoa, who shows a win over the main track and two Grade 3 victories to his credit. He'll be looking for his fifth straight for Repole Stables.  We'll throw in 10-Morning Line, Zito's classy horse, still looking for his first Grade 1 victory. Still debating on 3-Laysh Laysh Laysh and 4-Kensei, but most likely will use neither. [UPDATE: Calibrachoa has been scratched due to soreness in his feet...so thinking LLL]

G1 Wood: Free square. Uncle Mo. You can see my analysis on this race at my Sports, Ink blog at The Buffalo News here.

Well, you know Triple Crown season has arrived when the following occur: (1) Claims of a weak 3-year old crop; (2) Defections due to injury (see To Honor and Serve and Premier Pegasus) and (3) no major TV coverage of a huge prep weekend. Three big preps today and I'll have to go to TVG for the Wood and Illinois Derby and HRTV or TwinSpiresTV for the Santa Anita Derby. Ugh.

On a positive television note, the Black-Eyed Susan, one of my favorite days will be televised for the first time by the NBC-owned Versus channel. This is an excellent development, several years ago I put up a poll on the site as to who would do a great job covering horse racing, and Versus was at or near the top. It will be interesting to see how they do with racing coverage, if it's anything like how they cover the NHL, it should be decent.

Speaking of the NHL...here's a look at that Gerbe goal (and about five replays!)....Enjoy the weekend!

Hump Day Funny: The Rabbi, The Gentile and The Hat

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The Space Filly's godfather sent me a horse racing joke this week which I'd like to share to lighten things up a little...my apologies if you've seen it before...

A Rabbi was walking down the street when, suddenly, a strong gust of wind blew the streimel off his head. The Rabbi ran after his hat but the wind was so strong it kept blowing his hat farther and farther away. He just couldn't catch up with it.

A young gentile man, witnessing this event and being more fit than the Rabbi, ran after the hat and caught it. The young gentile handed the hat over to the Rabbi. The Rabbi was so pleased and grateful that he gave the man twenty dollars, put his hand on the man's head and blessed him. The young man was very excited about both the tip and the blessing.

The young gentile decided to take his new found wealth to the race-track. He bet the entire $20 on the first race that he could. After the races the young man returned home and recounted his very exciting day at the races to his father.

"I arrived at the fifth race," said the young man. "I looked at the racing program and saw a horse by the name of Top Hat was running. The odds on this horse were 100-to-1. It was the longest shot in the field."

After saving the Rabbi's hat, having received the Rabbi's blessing, gotten the $20, and seeing Top Hat in the fifth race, I thought this was a message from God. So, I bet the entire $20 on Top Hat. An amazing thing happened. The horse that was the longest shot and who did not have the slightest chance to even show, came in first by 5 lengths.

"You must have made a fortune," said the father. "Well yes, $2,000. But wait, it gets better," replied the son.

"In the following race, a horse by the name of Stetson was running. The odds on the horse were 30 to 1" Stetson being some kind of hat and again thinking of the Rabbi's blessing and his hat, I decided to bet all my winnings on this horse."

"What happened?" asked the excited father. "Stetson came in like a rocket. Now I had $60,000!"

"Are you telling me you brought home all this money?" asked his excited father. "No," said the son. "I lost it all on the next race. There was a horse in this race named Chateau, which is French for hat. So I decided to bet all the money on Chateau. But the horse broke down and came in last."

"Hat in French is "Chapeau" not "Chateau", you moron," said the father. "You lost all of the money because of your ignorance. Tell me, what horse won the race?"

The son answered, "A long shot from Japan named Yamaka."

Turning 3

Tweet We're turning 3 today on the ole' Space blog. It's been quite a ride and I've been considering a Larry Holmes-like retirement (reference for my older readers = Dad) to concentrate on other things. However, I still have some things to accomplish here, so we'll keep plugging away at stupid lists, spreadsheets and faking expert opinions for your viewing pleasure. I did win our Top Chef gambling pool this week (thank you Richard Blais) so I have that going for me.

We started off innocently, the day after April Fool's Day in 2008, as a fan who loves racing and to have a good time. We hit our 500th post sometime last year in the fourth quarter and while we've slowed down a bit over the past year, hopefully it's been on the side of quality. It's been great meeting many of you over the past few years, and I look forward to meeting more of you in the coming years (at the track, preferably not in an IRS audit situation).

Cool things about the number 3:

- The TRIPLE Crown, of course.
- The 3-pointer is uber-cool (if you can shoot it, that is).
- You get 3 strikes (in most instances of life - meaning you have two chances to screw off).
- Tres is the coolest Spanish number.
- Babe Ruth was number 3.
- Three Times a Lady (vs. Dude looks like a lady)
- Gimme Three Steps. - TRIFECTA, baby!
- Blue is the apron color for the number 3 (Blue is my favorite color)
- PICK 3 is my favorite wager.
- The term, three-bagger in baseball is one of my favorites.

So what does Year 4 have in store at the Space Station?

- The annual Derby SpaceSheet is a mere two weeks away (timed around tax day).
- A sub 4 hour trek to Saratoga is on my 2011 Things to Do List.
- Finger Lakes opening day looks like it could be fun.
- Completing my first personal Triple Crown attendance in the same year.
- Toga Party IV will be way better than I-III. (My annual Saratoga handicapping contest)
- Getting more involved at ThoroFan to drive membership and help market the concept in several of the key racing markets (Cali, Ky, NJ, Fla, Tx). Let me know if you are interested in helping us gather some fan momentum and rebuild the fanbase.
- Covering the Prince of Wales at Fort Erie for The News should be a blast. I was even offered to assist Elissa Blowe on the simulcast as guest handicapper (hopefully I won't break the camera) sometime during the 2011 racing season (hopefully a Monday in October when no one is watching).
- Using cliche phrases like "can't get the distance," "this 3 year old crop is weak," "the Solzenichen angle," and my favorite "he's still running."

I'm sure there's more to do in the coming year, but these should be some of the highlights, as well as working in words like halcyon, gravitas and apex into posts about horse racing. You may even see the occassional name dropping the likes of Brooks Robinson, Mike Cuellar and Bert Jones.

I did have some time this week to write up a preview of the Florida Derby, check it out here.

A happy anniversary to the excellent racing history writer Colin's Ghost, who also turned 3, yesterday, who speaking of the Florida Derby, has a nice post up on the original Florida Derby (1926-37).

Thanks for supporting this blog and making it enjoyable for me to continue to blab about a sport I've enjoyed since the first day the Saratoga Resident taught me what an exacta is.