Ok now that the tryptophan is out of the system I can get back to business....
One of the best handicapping overlays I have ever taken advantage of (and actually jumped on) was Purge's (see inset) Cigar Mile upset in 2005. I was sitting in an OTB passing some time while the Space Gal was home visiting relatives and noticed that the 10-1 morning line Purge was creeping upwards to 25-1. After spending some time with the PP's there was something I really liked about this horse and had played him underneath in my exotic wagers. With a minute to post I decided to pull the trigger and went across the board with him. Garret Gomez experiences a dream trip and pace scenario to close late for Todd Pletcher and win! "The 4-year-old son of Pulpit covered the mile in 1:34.26 and returned $53, $21.80 and $18.40." It was one of those moments that you get a shot at only every once and a while. Lately, I've passed on them (see Slambino on Travers Day...couldn't pull the trigger)....anyhow tomorrow's big race is once again the Cigar Mile and it has a tremendous field going a mile at the Big A.
This race has a little bit of everything. A couple of west coast stars (Monterrey Jazz and Arson Squad), a sprinting start stretching out to a mile (Kodiak Kowboy), several Classic trail horses (Visionaire and Tale of Ekati), an elder warrior (Wanderin Boy), a Canadian Classic champ (Harlem Rocker), a horse taking a major step up in class (Bribon) and an undefeated late blooming 3yo (Storm Play) also making a big class jump. Wow, where do you start?
I'm looking towards the old guy, Wanderin Boy (#6), who appears to be in great shape (two consecutive bullet works), and well rested (last raced 9/27) after losing to Curlin by 3/4 length in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I also favor Monterrey Jazz (#8), coming off a layoff, who handled the dirt and some decent competition at Lone Star Park. I think TofE will bounce after a career best and that Visionaire (#1) should rebound after losing to TofE in the slop last out, and I'll use him underneath with Harlem Rocker (#3), Bribon (#4) and Kodiak Kowboy (#9).
I'm thinking of two plays a trifecta and an exacta:
6,8 with 6,8 with 1,3,4,9 $1 tri cost: $8
6,8 with 1,3,4,9 $1 exacta cost: $8
Good luck, let's hope to light that victory Cigar in honor of the past champ!
Friday, November 28, 2008