The Other Big Race Yesterday

Tweet While most of the racing fans in New York State were watching a certain filly hold off a West Point Thoroughbred, my boys and I were on hand to watch Sonia "the Black Widow" Thomas defend her title in the Wing Eating Championship at Coca-cola Field in Buffalo, NY at the eighth annual National Wing Festival. Thomas won the twelve minute eating frenzy downing 169 chicken wings (3.38 pounds) holding off several national level challengers. Good times and high drama, indeed.

Of course, we timed our visit so we could make it home in time to watch the Woodward on TVG. Our living room was rocking during the stretch drive as my nine year old was jumping up and down rooting her to the finish line. The SpaceBro was in town and it was cool to watch history with your sibling and the rest of the family cheering her on. The only horse that I thought could beat her (before the race) was Macho Again, and the early pace scenario dictated he would be right there to challenge at the wire. He has really developed in to one fine race horse. One thing I noticed more than usual is the whipping that Borel was doing to her to get her to the wire. That was definitely her most strenuous race of the year. I can't imagine her bouncing back too quickly from that one. Nice to see history though.

Lost as a minor footnote and afterthought in Rachel's shadow yesterday (see last line of ESPN's article) was Pyro winning his first Grade I, with a win in the seven furlong Forego over the uber-consistent Kodiak Kowboy. It's really a shame that the Breeders' Cup is at Santa Anita, as I would love to see him try the Dirt Mile. But his assistant trainer Rick Mettee stated after the race, “The Breeders’ Cup being on synthetic changes the game completely. I wouldn’t completely rule it out, but I’m not sure.”

The only other race I watched yesterday was the stretch run of Mother Russia's win in the Peerless Springs Stakes for Obviously NY Stable. These guys, as previously mentioned here, are totally on fire. They go for 3 for 3 on the weekend at Finger Lakes tomorrow with Hook Me Up in $150K Lady Finger Stakes (race 7). While my first thoughts were to go to Fort Erie tomorrow, maybe a trip east up the thruway is in order...

Unless, of course, I'm in the mood for a few more wings.....

Whirlwind Tour and My Racing Jones

Tweet There's no better medicine to get back your racing jones, than a two day swing through the Historic Saratoga Race Course (photo courtesy: me). Let's just say I'm back in the saddle and the place just recharged my batteries. It was great to see old friends, new friends, interweb friends and meet some new acquaintances, but it was certainly a whirlwind two days as the Saratoga Resident once again proved to be an incredible host.

We did a respectable 4:09 on a busy Wednesday morning in from Buffalo which was hampered by the continued construction between exits 39 and 40, an old lady in a pinto, a student driver and the loss of my GPS with 26.7 miles to go. The Puma was watching on the "Geno Cam" as he calls Twitter and sending me encouragement for the 3:59, but it just wasn't meant to be. Regardless, with the traffic at the corner of 9 and 50, I would have been hard pressed to make it if I was closer. I'll have a couple more shots at it later this summer.

The racing on opening day was spectacular, I hit the early double and exactas on the two early baby races to make day one on the gambling front a profitable one. The Schuylerville was a nice race and Hot Dixie Chick looks to be a good one.

It was great to see Pyro back from a long layoff, here's an awful picture I grabbed of him while three deep at the paddock fence....

Day one at the track was a wrap with the Saratoga Resident taking the early lead in the Toga Party contest. His attendance guess of 25,750 was only 306 higher than the NYRA reported attendance of 25,444. He based his selection on the fact that he doesn't have any visitors scheduled for the rest of the summer at the Residence (other than me). [Dollar Bill: need your Dandy pick or you get the post time highest choice]. We headed over to Siro's in the pouring rain for a post-race drink and smoke. I had a nice blogger meetup with some of my interweb comrades and we all shared some stories from the day and caught up.

Day two started off bright and early (can we blow it off?) with a round of golf at beautiful Ballston Spa CC. The Puma broke out both his Puma shirt and socks for the occasion (I think he was trying to psyche me out), but the Saratoga Resident and I held off him and the Dragon on hole 18 to pocket a few more dollars. The round had two highlights for me, I just missed my first ever hole in one (on the second hold - one foot away) and secondly the Toga Rez convincing me to try a Jean van de Velde-like shot out of puddle. Needless to say, I was wearing said puddle (and the mud) on me for the remainder of the round.

Back to the track and we wandered the box area and ended up sitting right in front of D. Wayne Lukas. I got the courage (after some prodding) to ask him for a photo and ended up chatting with him for a few minutes about his spreading of the Triple Crown races out. He was a classy gentlemen, even when I told him I was one of those crazy racing bloggers.

As you can see, D Wayne had his best duds on and looked extremely sharp...

Next we moved up to the Puma's box to watch the last few races of the day, including spending some time with my pal, JB and some of the Saratoga Resident's Albany buddies (and avid readers of EquiSpace - thanks guys). JB and I went down into the paddock before the Quick Call Stakes and the only horse I didn't get a picture of was the winner, and Linda Rice-trained Awakino Cat. I also met one of the owners of Canadian Ballet (running today at Woodbine) who also uses Linda Rice, and we both left the Cat off our tickets after we were talking for ten minutes about how good she is in turf sprints. Robert from They're in the Gate joined us for a race or two (nice call on Backtalk).

I did get a side view of winning jock Alan Garcia though before jumping on Awakino Cat:

We wrapped up the day at the track and I got to meet one of my favorite jockeys, Julien Leparoux who was kind enough to pose after riding the final race of the day on Regal Refrain....

Back to Siro's, where I found these two fine gentlemen just waiting to get their picture taken with these colorful jackets. I figured I would give them their 15 minutes of fame.

We had a fabulous dinner at Max London's at the bar, where we met one of the owners of Siro's, who was enjoying his meal next to us at the bar. We haggled over a price for Siro's, but just couldn't get it done. Nice guy and enjoyed our time with him. We headed over to the Grey Gelding for a nightcap where we met Frank the Postal Guy who told me it was a federal offense to mail back the Puma's lighter upon my return to Buffalo...good to know...you never know what you will learn when you spend some time in the Springs.

The trip concluded on Friday morning with some breakfast at Shirley's (my favorite Toga diner) and a little business. We visited my good friend and client over at Saratoga Eagle Sales & Service (the local A-B distributor) and had a great tour of their brand spanking new warehouse in the Grande Industrial Park. Thanks Jeff, for the great tour (and samples!!).

Well, I'm glad to report my racing jones is back. The Spa is just what the doctor ordered. Just in time for a great weekend of racing. On a side note, La Chica Rica is taking on male rivals for the first time on the West Virginia Derby undercard. Looking forward to seeing how she fares.

Ready to Rumble?

Tweet Tonight it's all about making sure all of the essentials are packed, so there's no time to waste in the morning. Fedora - check (not really). Ugly orange shirt - check. Cooler - check. Macanudo - check. Pens - check. Racing form - check. Space Gal's pink camera - check. Co-pilot - ummm....you're cancelling?? What?? Looks like I am flying solo down the great New York State Thruway tomorrow. Some unavoidable personal issues has my pal G-Money staying at home for the opening two days. At least his Abe Vigoda-like bladder won't hold up my commuting time (and secret new route) into the Springs. I'm officially calling it the Springs from this point on.

Looking forward to some blogger meet ups over the course of the day, as well as seeing many old friends from the greater Albany area. We have an interesting golf match set up with some industry folks (former and current) on Thursday morning at the lovely Ballston Spa CC, which should provide some good blog fodder for the weekend and then to the track for afternoon festivities at the top of the stretch.

The card is a tough one. I'm through the first five races and wow...there will be boxcar payoffs tomorrow, there is no doubt. Value hunting galore. The hunch bet exacta (courtesy: the Puma) is in the Schuylerville: Wild Without Wine w/That's How I Roll. And if you're the Saratoga Resident you toss in Hot Dixie Chick for good measure. Seriously, the James Marvin (Race 3) is a complete brainteaser. I'm currently hoping Pyro takes a lot of dumb money and that a longshot like Cassoulet (anytime you can get Leparoux at double digit odds...whoa) or the Sheikh's Honour Devil runs a big one and makes a big score. I think I am going to stick to straight win betting and rolling doubles tomorrow. We'll see if I can stick to the plan (unlikely).

I received a tweet directed at me by monmouthpark stating that Rachel Alexandra will be carrying 5 less pounds (117) against her nine rivals (notice the use of the word "rivals") in Sunday's $1.25M Haskell Invitational. Like she needs that kind of advantage. I wonder why it wasn't in the stakes conditions, guess they never figured a filly to enter this race....seems odd to me....but what do I know? (Don't answer that last question)

Kevin at Colin's Ghost has a super post up about opening day Saratoga 1919, make sure you check it out. Drop me an email if you'd like to say hello tomorrow or Thursday. And don't forget to get your Toga Party picks to me tonight! Looks like we'll have a full gate, as Val at Foolish Pleasure looks to defend her crown. Good luck and thanks for reading. Back in a couple of days with full reports from the Springs (kinda like the ring to that).

Toga Opener: Pyromania

Tweet It's only fitting that the Saratoga Resident's 2007 Derby pick (lock) Pyro is showing up for opening day to take on eight others in the James Marvin Stakes (Race 3). I have to say that's got me pretty juiced and a racing revival is in my veins. Other notable starters for next Wednesday after perusing the entries are Ninth Client (Race 4), Bklyn Backstretch fave Saratoga Russell (Race 8) and another Toga Rez-ism That's How I Roll (Race 9 - G3 Schuylerville Stakes).

We're primed for an early morning romp down the thruway (construction between exits 39 and 40 as well as Timmy Ho's coffee could doom any efforts at a 3:59) on Wednesday morning, a little blogger meetup at Siro's post race, downtown Wednesday evening - Grey Gelding for dinner at the bar, rounded out by an early morning tee time at Ballston Spa CC and top of the stretch track day Thursday has it looking like a nice trip (sweet run-on sentence, eh?). The races carded all look like pretty full fields and a tremendous day of racing (let's hope the weather cooperates) is on tap.

Remember to email me (or leave in the comments) your Toga Party II contest picks, I've been receiving them from as far away as Germany, so don't be left out! Jim Dandy selections are due Friday night by midnight.

If you read my post on Bona Venture Stables, looks like there is some good news regarding It's the Big Cat (named after NBA great and Bona grad Bob Lanier) who is pointing towards a turf sprint at the Spa early in the meet. Keep an eye out for this one.

I've survived another day at Monmouth's Survival at the Shore with a place in the first race today and started the day in 21st place ($796.50, 40/129, 31%)...holy moly. Trying to hang on and crack the front page.....

Another Marquee Day at the Spa

Tweet My first live Travers was in 2005, when Todd Pletcher's Flower Alley (inset) beat the Boss' Bellamy Road and my favorite horse of 2005, Roman Ruler, who rounded out the trifecta. Flower Alley now stands at Three Chimneys. The Hopeful was also run on that day (now run on the last Sunday of the meet) and First Samurai went out and beat Henny Hughes, who ended up having a pretty decent career as a sprinter, neither went on through the Derby trail. It was the day that really turned me into a huge racing fan. I hit my first pick-four which included Flower Alley, First Samurai, Leroidesnimux (BRZ- in the Fourstardave) and the only Spa appearance of the great sprinter Lost in the Fog who won the King's Bishop handily. Looking back on it we saw some true champions that day, and it was definitely the day I became hooked on the sport. Great memories.

After taking a couple days off to enjoy this beautiful WNY weather (my 3 wood is back in form) it's back to the actual Form to see what we have cooking on Travers Day, circa 2008. Ace handicapper JB has commented on his in-depth thoughts on the race and likes Harlem Rocker, as does Kevin over at The Aspiring Horse Player. Power Cap likes Mambo in Seattle as his Play of the Day, as does the DRF's Dave Litfin. The HR Maven likes the fact that Tyler Baze made the cross country trip for one mount, the lovable Tres Borrachos. The Puma has been uncharacteristically quiet maybe we'll hear from him later. John DaSilva of the NY Post and Steve Crist of the DRF both like Pyro. The race is basically wide open and has a tremendous amount of opportunity for value. It's going to be one of those races that you'll have to keep an eye on the tote board to see if any of these horses creeps up on the board. Five of the last seven winners have had Beyers in excess of 110 for this race. The last three also won the Jim Dandy, Flower Alley (110 -Travers, 112 Dandy), Bernardini (116 -T, 114 - JD) and Street Sense (108 - T, 105 - JD). Here's where the Saratoga Resident would say "Beyer Smeyer." Macho Again, looking to make it four in a row for the Dandy/Travers double, had a 102 in the Dandy, Pyro a 101. The Three Drunks had a 101 and Colonel John a 99 in the Swaps, also at the 1 1/8 distance. As the Travers stretches out to a mile and a quarter, this should favor the closers. I'm not going out on a line again on Tale of Ekati (which means he will win), but I think Pyro, Colonel John and Macho Again will round out my trifecta box. I don't think Mambo in Seattle has faced these caliber (i know i'm stretching it here) of horses, and my two Derby future horses Cool Coal Man and Court Vision, are just too slow. The Zito spoiler just might be Amped, who looks like he might like the extra distance, and could end up second or third and might be worth throwing in some exotic tickets. Of course, we'll be rooting for the Adena Springs' owned Rocker, who I have in my Toga handicapping tourney. Looks like a nice day so attendance should not be hindered by the weather.

Other the other stakes today I favor, Indyanne in the Victory Ride, Russell Baze also making the one mount trip from the left coast, might be worth a single in pick three and pick four plays. I like Operation Red Dawn in the Baruch (G2) with the red hot Ramon Dominguez up. In the King's Bishop, talented J be K may be tested by Lantana Mob (Dominguez again), Golden Spikes (who seems to be doing well in the sprints) and Larry Jones' Kodiak Kowboy, winner of the G2 Amsterdam, Gabe Saez trying to win his second straight Saturday Grade 1. I'm going with KK (coupled with Lantana Mob) for the upset.

Speaking of making the cross country trip for one mount, it was certainly worth it for Raf Bejarano yesterday, winning the thrilling Personal Ensign (G1) on champion filly Ginger Punch by a "snot bubble" over Lemon Drop Mom (who I told the Space Gal before the race, "if anyone will pull the upset that horse will"). That race is up there with the Alabama, for the race of the meet, so far. Maybe today will produce another thrilling finish at the wire.

Tale of Ekati to the Rescue

Tweet I agree with commenter and handicapping pal JB who thinks Tale of Ekati is sitting on a big race today in the $500K Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at historic Saratoga Race Course. After suffering a cut caused by Big Brown in the Belmont he faded to sixth in the stretch and was not a factor. Barclay Tagg should have him ready today and with top fan Bo Derek recently being appointed to the California Racing Board and the morning line being 10-1....hmm. Does Bo know horses?

Here she is in the paddock stall (#7) at the Belmont rooting her man on!

Regardless of his entourage, I'm thinking TOE is the value play today at those odds in this key prep race for the $1M Travers Stakes later next month. The other horse that intrigues me today is Tiz Now Tiz Then, the Eoin Harty-trained colt who ran a 1:41 and 3 in the Iowa Derby at a mile and an eighth, better time than any horse at that distance in this race. Underneath I'm thinking Pyro and Mint Lane to round out the first four. It should be a Dandy!

I didn't get to see all of yesterday's big four, but thought Bejarano was the man finding that opening to get Ginger Punch through in the Go For Wand. What a tremendous effort! Once Bustin Stones scratched I changed my $10 Double to Abraaj and hit it to ease the pain inflicted by Forever Together on my Pick 4 selections. Although I didn't play him I was very happy to see one of my favorites and NY-bred Commentator win his second Whitney in four years. I saw him up close at Gulfstream in January where he set a track record and really enjoy watching him race. Based on his last effort in the Met Mile, I thought he would tire in the stretch, but he ended up wiring the field in fine fashion. Good job ole' boy.

I've added the Toga Party! contest standings on the sidebar under Toga Handicapping Contest to view everyone's picks with today's Jim Dandy giving everyone involved a chance at point #2.

Not sure the origination of the Jim Dandy, I'm sure someone will blog about it today, all I can remember is the 45 (rpm) my parents had in the 70's playing "Jim Dandy to the Rescue!" Here are the Black Oak Arkansas playing the song I used to sing while eating Bugles in my underwear...

(Courtesy: myjimdandy - youtube)

Enjoy the day at the Spa.

Mid Year Bests and Worsts

Tweet Happy Canada Day for all our Canadian friends to the north!

Two weeks to Del Mar and three weeks to Toga and summer racing. Now that we've reached the midpoint of the 2008 racing year I've listed MY five best and worst moments in horse racing for the first half of 2008.


Best Moments in Racing - YTD 2008

1 – Big Brown Wins Kentucky Derby from Post #20
A ton of doubt existed if he could do it from the far post, and when trainer Dutrow grabbed it with glee at the Post Position Draw on 4th Street in Louisville, it was exactly where he wanted to be. A stunning performance by the big fellah was easily the best moment for me so far this year.

2 – Curlin Wins Dubai World Cup in Romp
The world champion lived up to expectations in overpowering an international field of horses in the world's richest race ($6M). His record setting 7 3/4 length victory at the Nad was not only after a five month layoff since his BC Classic win at Monmouth, but was drug-free to boot.

3 – Tiago Outduels Heatseeker at wire in Oaklawn Handicap
In maybe the year's best race between two terrific rivals, Tiago nipped Heatseeker by a head in the Oaklawn Handicap. They would duel again later in early June with Heatseeker avenging the loss. Unfortunately, Heatseeker has suffered a career ending injury and will be retired.

4 – Pyro’s visually stunning victory in the Louisiana Derby
At the time, one of the leading Derby contenders, Pyro, made a visually impressive move late to win the La Derby at the Fair Grounds by three lengths. In all kinds of traffic, Pyro, ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan, navigated the victory to put him over the $1M mark in career earnings. He recently won the Northern Dancer (G2) on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill. Unfortunately he disappointed his fans on Derby Day, but his performance on that day in early March, makes my top five.

5 – Proud Spell Upsets Indian Blessing in Louisiana Oaks
On the same day as Pyro's La Derby win, Proud Spell shocked BC Juvenile Filly champ Indian Blessing in the La Oaks (G2), with a time that was actually better than Pyro's in the La Derby. It was the second loss for Indian Blessing to Proud Spell, and a rematch in the Kentucky Oaks loomed. Unfortanately, Blessing was rested until Belmont Day and the rematch has still not occurred. Proud Spell went on to win the Ky Oaks, after flirting with entry in the Derby.

Honorable Mention: Big Brown's Florida Derby win from post 12, Student Council's Pimlico Special win in the slop, Sweet Vendetta's win in the Black-Eyed Susan for breeder David Cassidy.

Five Worst Moments in Horse Racing - 2008 YTD

1 – Eight Belles breaks down in gallop out after placing in Derby
Not much more needs to be said here.

2 – Congressional Hearings on June 19, 2008
The sport takes its shots on Capitol Hill with threats of governmental intervention if issues such as steroids/drug use, breakdowns, excessive whip use and centralization are not addressed. Worst moment #1 above, a big driver of the feds getting involved.

3 – Big Brown falters in Triple Crown bid
Whether it was the heat, the loose shoe, the bad ride, the faulty bathroom facilities, the starter or the quarter crack, the Triple Crown has still not been won in 30 years. While it drove up interest in the sport for a few weeks, it also showed the world the ugliness of the connections and the difficulty of the Test of the Champion in front of a huge NY crowd.

4 – Santa Anita track problems due to excessive SoCal rains early in year.
The $11M Cushion Track installed at Santa Anita last summer suffered major drainage problems in January and February, wherein 11 racing days and numerous revenues were lost. Just last week the track announced another overhaul of the surface to start this month with the Australian-based Pro-Ride surface replacing the current surface. With the Breeders' Cup scheduled for October, the installation schedule is very tight and they could be pushing the envelope with the timing.

5 – Jeremy Rose suspended for six month for abusive whip use at Delaware Park
With PETA already on the doorstep after the death of Eight Belles, comes an unfortunate incident wherein Rose struck his mount in the eye. Delaware Park officials immediately suspended Rose for six months. Another black eye.

Honorable Mention: Breeders' Cup moves all five ladies events to Friday and renames the Distaff, Einstein's owners fail to obtain NY license for Manhattan on Belmont Day, Preakness field weakest in years, Mother Goose gains only four runners, Pletcher finishes last in Derby for third straight year, Buffalo CPA starts racing blog :)

I'm sure I missed something feel free to chime in!

Derby Day

Tweet The day we have all been waiting for is here. The First Saturday in May has arrived and a sloppy and yielding Oaks Day had lots of excitement to it. The Space Gal (my lovely wife) hit the tri in the Oaks and was strutting around all evening in her handicapping glory. My Oaks/Derby Double is alive with Proud Spell ($8.80) taking the first leg. My second legs with will pays as shown at the Crist Blog site are: Big Brown ($37.80), Colonel John ($54.80), Pyro ($55.80), Z Fortune (my Derby pick at $143.60), and Bob Black Jack ( $514.80). Let’s just say I wouldn’t be all that disappointed if BBJ wired it and one of the other four came in second (yes, I have that saver exacta ticket). In the early pools it looks like a lot of early money is going on Court Vision and Eight Belles as their early pool lines have dropped significantly, with CV actually being the 4th choice in the double....hmmm. Lots of folks must be projecting the race to fall apart based on all of the outside speed duels that have the potential of burning horses out one by one. It should be interesting and instead of re-capping everything, I had also made some off-track plays (with Visionaire and Adriano on top of some exactas). I learned on the sloppy BC Day to go with your gut and instincts.

Last night’s dream: Big Brown going to the front from the 20 hole, tiring in the stretch and being overtaken by the 8 at the wire, Visionaire….

Space Gal's Picks (face it she's on fire): $1 Exacta: Pyro, Cowboy Cal w/ Pyro, Cowboy Cal, Eight Belles, Cool Coal Man. Finally as no female can resist, $4 to win on Eight Belles. She mentioned something about an Uncle Cal.....Good luck!

It should be interesting. Have a great day and enjoy the big race.

Picture: Courtesy, DRF

Derby 134

Tweet At this point, I'm making the call and it's Z Fortune. I love his pedigree, his jockey, his barn and his dosage index. He looked in the Arkansas Derby like he had some gas left in the tank, so I'm making him my 2008 Derby pick. Colonel John has the pedigree (his sire Tiznow won the BC Classic twice at the distance and once at Churchill), had a great work this week, he has an excellent post position and although the synth to dirt transition scares me, Gayego's performance in the Arkansas Derby has somewhat relieved that tension for me. Big Brown is the monster in the field (and maybe the only real Triple Crown threat), the fact that Dutrow boldly selected the outside post was very intriguing to me. He has a deceiving pedigree discussed in breeder Jim Squires' blog, that can get it done. Here's hoping he is avoided to some extent in the betting pools (due to the outside post) so that his price remains fair. Finally, Pyro should rebound from the Blue Grass effort and will be a factor underneath in the exotics, I just don't think he has the jock to pull off this race. I do like his post position and late running style should the race fall apart, I plan to play him sparingly in some saver exactas and tris.

Futures Bets: Cool Coal Man and Court Vision.

So my top four are as follows: 1 - Z Fortune, 2 - Colonel John, 3 - Big Brown and 4 - Pyro. It looks a tad chalky but when you narrow it down, these four have the best numbers, pedigree and posts (other than BB). Should the track come up sloppy Visionaire and Adriano will warrant further consideration (along with Pyro, who ran a decent 2nd in the slop at Monmouth in October behind War Pass in the Breeders Cup Juvenile). The fun part will be designing various exotic plays around those four!

Bella Cavello Update: The BCS has struck again! Jeroboam ($7.00), a 5yo gelding (by Disco Rico out of Ninetyeight), wired a $9K claimer at Charles Town last night from post 8 in race 6, for the Stables' third win in a row, with Wesley Ho up. I would play Pyro tomorrow boys, because you all are on fire!!

Welcome to Austin!

Tweet So I pick Derby week to work in Austin, Texas. Am I insane? Only to the fact that I checked how far away Lone Star Park was from here...damn..it was 3 hours away!!! I did enjoy the $1 Tecates at the Plugged Nickel however before submitting this report!!! I can hardly keep up with the Derby week emails, blog sites, etc. and try and do a good job on my current project… uh..well…it's all about priorities…damn it..let's get after an early prognosis of how to play the exotics, which will be most profitable come Saturday. I was provided today with several trifecta scenarios by ample handicappers to buy into, but I think I need to be a unified front in my selections come Saturday and die by the sword if that is what happens. I am sold into certain horses and will stick them as I did last year (see Hard Spun), so I am confident in my selection process. I am more confident in the exacta play so I think I will go there with my betting. I will report Saturday morning as to my exacta play and if I go into any trifecta pools.

For the first time (and I reserve judgment before the draw) I will throw out my favorites for the first two spots…with full disclosure that I have future plays with Court Vision and Cool Coal Man, both of which will cut my losses if they win (I'm sure you all understand!).

I will write tomorrow about my first Derby experience (and my hot Oaks Day in 06) and how much it meant to me as a handicapper and a race fan (watching Barbaro run out the stetch) being with some of my best pals watching an incredible sporting experience.

So here is what I like circa 2008 (pre-draw):

Big Brown (he could wire it)
Pyro ( throw out Blue Grass)
Col. John ( work convinced me)
Z Fortune ( Assman is holding back)

Those are the four that I think (pending a bad draw) will win the race.

Underneath at second:
The above plus Gayego, and Bob Black Jack (may throw win bets at him)

For third:
Those six and Monba and Visionaire.

OK…..that's from Tuesday night…and going with 8 total….I will reconvene Thursday for more analysis....and what I'll probably do is throw them all in an exacta box for $56 and hope for value.

Crash and Burn

Tweet Yesterday, similar to Pyro, I crashed and burned at Keeneland in the Blue Grass, leaving me with nothing more than saying "I hate polytrack." I find it difficult to handicap, the pace slowdown changes everything and horses running on it for the first time in a big race rarely perform. I thought Cool Coal Man was rating nicely through the top of the stretch, then nada….nothin….done. Miner's Claim made a nice move after the far turn and then nada…nothin…done. I'm drawing a line through this race. I have more faith in CCM and Pyro that it was the track and nothing more. Pletcher definitely picked his spot after working out the top two finishers together earlier in the week. He'll be back at the Derby, I just don't think we'll see him in the Winner's Circle, even though I'm a fan of his. Both his horses show nice turf form and the turf to synthetics angle appears to be something to always keep in mind.



In the Arkansas Derby, Gayego made a case for the west coast horses and had a nice trip bringing home the 1 1/8 race. This bodes well for the stock of Colonel John and even Bob Black Jack, who will be making their first runs off the poly on dirt at Churchill Downs. Funny note on this race as pointed out by the Saratoga Resident via email after the race, third place finisher Tres Borrachos means Three Drunks in Spanish…classic. An interesting twist here, the late closing Z Fortune seemed to have more left in the tank and could be a factor in Louisville with another 1/8 mile added on for the Run for the Roses.

The handicapping puzzle for the first Saturday in May just got more complicated.

Handicapping Puzzle

Tweet Today's two main Derby preps appear to be light years apart, when looking at the talent that landed in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). The puzzle is how to figure out how this race will unfold, as we all know, "pace makes the race." The morning line favorite Pyro seems to be set up nicely here with the typically slower times on the polytrack and the lack of any real speed horse (that I can see). He will stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time and should have plenty of run in him late if the pace is slow. In studying what may unfold, I think I will be going the exotic route and playing an exacta with my top two choices, Cool Coal Man and Pyro over a few horses that have some interesting items of note in the PP's. I like CCM, who had a perfect stalking trip to win the FOY, who has beaten Court Vision, the top two Illinois Derby finishers, and has won at this distance twice. Underneath I like the following horses: Big Truck (nice workouts over the past month) and could be a factor late, Medjool (run all races on the synthetics and could be ready for a big effort), Miner's Claim (I like this horse a lot with improving beyers, won on synthetics, will also make a win bet on him) and finally Halo Najib (Gomez aboard, solid race last time out on the poly). Big Question Mark: Will Todd get shut out?

$1 EX PART WHEEL: 1,7 with 1,6,7,9,10, 11 (cost: $10)

Picks: 1- Cool Coal Man, 2 - Pyro, 3 - Big Truck

The $1M Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn has some big graded stakes money available to fourteen runners and could send up to three horses to the Derby with the size of the purse. I'm playing against west coast shipper Gayego (first time on dirt) and actually like all three Asmussen horses in the race. But will go with King's Silver Sun (improving beyers, familiar with track and has hit the board six of seven in lifetime races, pace could help). I also like My Pal Charlie with Julien up (improving beyers, looks to be out on the lead early) and Ablaze with Spirit, another Asmussen trainee (improving beyers and could be a factor late). Others that rate a look underneath in exotics: Z Fortune and Liberty Bull.

Picks: 1 - King's Silver Sun, 2 - My Pal Charlie, 3 - Ablaze with Spirit

Also running this afternoon is the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) which only landed seven horses and nothing exciting, but it will be shown live on ESPN's coverage today. Hey Byrn (8/5 ML favorite) needs to win to have any shot at the Derby. Too bad there are not more purse dollars at stake here as the competition would be much better than what's entered.

Pyromania!

Tweet On top of all of the experts' top ten lists at kentuckyderby.com, Pyro is back in action tomorrow in the Japanese Car Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in race 9. Pyromania died down somewhat after the huge performance in the Florida Derby by Big Brown, who claims the two-spot in most polls. While Pyro's last two victories in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star were both visually impressive, many racing enthusiasts have questioned the speed in those races. Pyro's individual splits in the Risen Star and LA Derby for the first six furlongs were 1:16 and 1:14, respectively, with come-home times of 28.55 and 30.37 for the final two and a half furlongs. This tells me that the slow early pace led to his late charges in both races. So on to the polytrack and an additional 1/8 mile for Pyro. My thinking today is that this sets up for him nicely, but more analysis this evening will be required.

At first glance at the PP's, one horse I am considering is Miner's Claim, who has only run on synthetics at Turfway and Woodbine, who is trained by Mark Casse, who wins 22% of the time on synthetics. I'll be looking at ways to use him underneath on exotics. I also will be studying Halo Najib a little closer, with GG aboard, his regular rider Kent Desormeaux riding Cool Coal Man.

More tomorrow on Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass manana.

Le Name Game

Tweet Four weeks ago we brought home our first dog (after 44 years) and had to come up with a name for him. We let my eight year son give him his middle name and let the family decide what the first name should be. Because of his brown fur it came down between Cappucino and Tanner, and the consensus went with Tanner. Well my son has the basketball jones…so what better way to complete his name, than Tanner Jones.

I then started wondering if there were any horses out there named Tanner Jones. I went to a horse pedigree inquiry site and found that there were five Tanners, but no Tanner Joneses. So much for keeping up with the Joneses. None appear to be standouts, but one had a sire named Financial Matter (hey I'm a CPA), and one had a dam named Days Like This (pretty cool). Anyways, it started me thinking further (dangerous thing) about what I would name a horse. My pal, The Saratoga Resident, said I should name it "Don't Do That!" which is what he always tells me while out on the road together. I was thinking more of something like "areyoufreakinkiddinme" which would be a great race call down the stretch. Or how about "Boots with the Fur?" Yep, time to hang it up.

After reading another horse racing blogsite where the group named a race at Aqueduct for $300, it piqued my interest to see what it would cost at Saratoga. I received the following email reply from a NYRA customer service representative who stated:

"On the day of the event the name of your personalized race will appear in the Post Parade magazine. A few minutes prior to your race a representative of the Customer Service office will escort you to a trackside location for viewing and then upon completion you'll step into the Winner's Circle along with 9 of your friends. There you'll present the winning jockey or trainer with a commemorative Irish crystal picture frame. The frame is yours to keep along with (1) complimentary (8"x10") color photo of your group taken by the Official track photographer. The photo, which includes the personalized name of your race, is usually mailed within 1-2 weeks time. Additional photos can be purchased thru the track photographer."

All for the EDLP of $1,000!

The Blue Grass Stakes draw was very interesting and trying to handicap these horses on the synthetic track at Keeneland will surely be a challenge. Most of the top tier horses have the necessary graded earnings to qualify for the Derby, it will be the second tier of horses needing the win badly. I actually hope Pyro gets beat here, mainly so his price will improve for the Derby, as I think a closer in the right spot might just steal it on 03MAY with the amount of speed that should be out there. (i.e War Pass, Recapturetheglory, Big Brown, etc.). I will be keeping a close eye on Cool Coal Man, Big Truck and Visionaire to see how they run against a quality field.

Chalk eating weasels?

Tweet Looking to play beat the favorite again in this weekend preps…picks on Friday….what is a chalk-eating weasel anyway?

TVG televised the Blue Grass Stakes draw today live which resulted in even money race favorite Pyro (worked 4f on Monday in 0:50.6) landing the 7 hole. The full field of 12 (first time since 1983) including my guy Cool Coal Man (post #1, 4-1 ML), Visionaire (post #12, 6-1), Big Truck (post #6, 6-1) and Cowboy Cal (post #3, Pletcher horse). Visonnaire last matched strides with Pyro in the Risen Star (taking third) and the Michael Matz trained colt will be coming off his win in the Gotham at the Big A for the rematch. Cool Coal Man comes off a win in the Fountain of Youth at GP, so four graded stakes winners (including Big Truck who won the Tampa Derby) will highlight the day at Keeneland on Saturday. Trainer Todd Pletcher puts up his last hopes this weekend to keep from going "dark" on Derby day. Dominican won last year's Blue Grass over Street Sense.

The Arkansas Derby draw is scheduled for Thursday and looks to have a full field. Past Arkansas Derby winners at Oaklawn include Curlin (2007), Lawyer Ron (2006), Afleet Alex (2005) and Smarty Jones (2004), so look for a promising horse to surface from this race.

Made my plans for the annual trek for Alabama Day weekend at the Spa on Monday. This year's undercard also features the $550K Turf race, the Sword Dancer (G1).

Late $1 Pick 3 Keeneland today: 2,3,5/2,4,8/10,11 (KEE contest picks bolded)