Channeling Kreskin 2012

Tweet

As we approach the New Year, it's time to do my 2012 prognosticating and blind guesses at what's in store for thoroughbred racing in the coming year. A few weeks ago I reviewed the results from my 2011 selections, and I batted a meek .200 (2 for 10), right on the Mendoza Line.

We'll have to try and do much better this year, though I try to make the predictions somewhat difficult, that way I look really smart if I'm right, and if not, well they're difficult.  Win-win, no?

I will probably have one gimme and this year I'm not going to jinx a 3:59 to Toga by predicting it, so sayonara seeing that pick again.

And away we go.....

1. Horse from the outside gate will win the Derby. As most of you know, there are two gates used to house the 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby. The outside gate houses 15-20. Gives me a 30% shot right? Well, no, because the two outside posts have extremely poor results over the years. Animal Kingdom did it from 16, so this is kinda gutsy going for two years in a row. You know what they say..no guts...

2. One of the Classics will end in a photo. Hmm...we haven't had a photo finish in the Derby in quite some time, so we'll throw all three races in there to take a shot that one will end in a photo. Law of averages is with me here.

3. A female jockey will be ITM in one of the classics. Another gutsy call, but Chantal Sutherland or Rosie Napravnik will make me look good here. It is all about the looks...

4. The Florida Derby will wield us the Derby winner. The Derby winner comes out of this race every few years and 2012 will follow suit.

5. One of the three winners of the Canadian classics will win a graded stake later in the year. The Plate, the Prince of Wales and Breeders' Stakes are restricted races and some folks seem to discount the horses who run in them when they run elsewhere. We're stretching a bit here, but who says a Canadian horse can't come out of one of these races and win a Grade 3, at least?

6. Haskell hat is yellow. I swung and whiffed with green in 2011 (it was black), yellow looks like it's due since it's been since 2002.

7. Pletcher will win the Saratoga Training Title. Like I said earlier, I have to have a gimme. This is as close to a gimme as they come. The Toddster doesn't mess around at the Spa and will be loaded again this summer.

8. Santa Anita will be awarded the 2013 Breeders' Cup. In a pattern of twos, I think the Great Race Place will come out of the 2012 Cup with glowing reviews and retain the championships for a second consecutive year.

9. The BC Classic winner will go off at odds greater than 10-1. Where parity was the name of the game in 2011, I don't see it being much different in 2012, and an upset winner in the Classic shouldn't be out of the question.

10. A scandal will rock the racing industry.  It happens in every other sport. Cheating uncovered, a major tote breakdown, something bad is in the waters that will make the mainstream. This is one I hope doesn't happen.

There you have it Kreskin fans, my 2012 picks of the litter.....we'll be back next December to see how I do...in the meantime....Happy New Year!

Not That Amazing Kreskin

Tweet

Back in December, I channeled my inner-Kreskin and delivered my blind 2011 predictions for horse racing. The only part that rang true was the word blind. It was a dismal performance, albeit with a couple close calls.

Let's recap each of my 10 predictions and see where I went wrong in most of the cases....

1) A Derby/Preakness Double. We almost started off fairly strong here with Animal Kingdom running a close second in the Preakness and was in position to grab the double as he flew down the stretch after Shackleford. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, so we're 0 for 2011 so far.

2) A Filly will be ITM in a TC Race. Whoops. Swing and a miss. He heads back to the bench with his head lowered. 0 for 2 space fans.

3) The Belmont will be won by a horse with double digit odds. Huzzah, we're on the board. You probably could say I didn't really go out on a limb here but there was some serious 3-year olds in the field. Ruler On Ice won in the slop at odds approaching 25-1. No shut out here, 1 for 3.

4) Fly Down will win a Grade 1. Was caught with my fly down on this one. XYZ, as they say. He ran in two Grade 1's in the first quarter of the year, finishing 5th in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream and a disappointing 13th at Meydan in the Dubai World Cup. Scorecard: 1 for 4.

5) The Arkansas Derby will give us the 2011 Derby winner. Close but no cigar. Nehro, the second place finisher in the Derby came out of the Arkansas Derby, and unfortunately Archarcharch drew the dreaded rail and was doomed from the start, suffering a career-ending injury during the early going of the Run for the Roses. See what I mean about being close. 1 for 5 folks.

6) Sub 4 hour trek to the Spa. 4:02. What can I say...it's probably just not meant to be. Construction on the Thruway between Exits 40 and 41 all summer set me back enough to not make the final stretch drive. 1 for 6 (and reeling).

7) Santa Anita is awarded the 2012 Breeders' Cup. Bingo. At this time last year, folks were still figuring Belmont was in the mix. Not so fast, hoss. Back on the board. 2 for 7 (kinda like my shooting percentage in college).

8) A 3 year old wins the BC Classic. I should've prognosticated that a 3-year-old would be the morning line favorite. Had a few chances here in Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve. The 4-year-old Drosselmeyer upset my projection here. 2 for 8, batting .250 and barely above the Mendoza line.

9) Haskell Hat is green. I studied the past 12 years worth of hats, and went with green for the 2011 color of the premier big racing day hat. Blew it again...black. 2 for 9 (.222)

10) Garret Gomez wins his first TC race. He rode Master of Hounds in the Derby and Belmont, where the best he could do was 5th in the Derby. He rode Sway Away, a buzz horse, in the Preakness and is still searching for that elusive first Triple Crown victory. Final tally: 2 for 10 (.200).

We'll be back after a trip down to Lily Dale to read the 2012 tea leaves in December to see if we can improve on our 2011 scorecard and get back to the over .500 record posted in 2010.