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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Channeling Kreskin 2012

As we approach the New Year, it's time to do my 2012 prognosticating and blind guesses at what's in store for thoroughbred racing in the coming year. A few weeks ago I reviewed the results from my 2011 selections, and I batted a meek .200 (2 for 10), right on the Mendoza Line.

We'll have to try and do much better this year, though I try to make the predictions somewhat difficult, that way I look really smart if I'm right, and if not, well they're difficult.  Win-win, no?

I will probably have one gimme and this year I'm not going to jinx a 3:59 to Toga by predicting it, so sayonara seeing that pick again.

And away we go.....

1. Horse from the outside gate will win the Derby. As most of you know, there are two gates used to house the 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby. The outside gate houses 15-20. Gives me a 30% shot right? Well, no, because the two outside posts have extremely poor results over the years. Animal Kingdom did it from 16, so this is kinda gutsy going for two years in a row. You know what they guts...

2. One of the Classics will end in a photo. Hmm...we haven't had a photo finish in the Derby in quite some time, so we'll throw all three races in there to take a shot that one will end in a photo. Law of averages is with me here.

3. A female jockey will be ITM in one of the classics. Another gutsy call, but Chantal Sutherland or Rosie Napravnik will make me look good here. It is all about the looks...

4. The Florida Derby will wield us the Derby winner. The Derby winner comes out of this race every few years and 2012 will follow suit.

5. One of the three winners of the Canadian classics will win a graded stake later in the year. The Plate, the Prince of Wales and Breeders' Stakes are restricted races and some folks seem to discount the horses who run in them when they run elsewhere. We're stretching a bit here, but who says a Canadian horse can't come out of one of these races and win a Grade 3, at least?

6. Haskell hat is yellow. I swung and whiffed with green in 2011 (it was black), yellow looks like it's due since it's been since 2002.

7. Pletcher will win the Saratoga Training Title. Like I said earlier, I have to have a gimme. This is as close to a gimme as they come. The Toddster doesn't mess around at the Spa and will be loaded again this summer.

8. Santa Anita will be awarded the 2013 Breeders' Cup. In a pattern of twos, I think the Great Race Place will come out of the 2012 Cup with glowing reviews and retain the championships for a second consecutive year.

9. The BC Classic winner will go off at odds greater than 10-1. Where parity was the name of the game in 2011, I don't see it being much different in 2012, and an upset winner in the Classic shouldn't be out of the question.

10. A scandal will rock the racing industry.  It happens in every other sport. Cheating uncovered, a major tote breakdown, something bad is in the waters that will make the mainstream. This is one I hope doesn't happen.

There you have it Kreskin fans, my 2012 picks of the litter.....we'll be back next December to see how I the meantime....Happy New Year!



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