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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Not That Amazing Kreskin

Back in December, I channeled my inner-Kreskin and delivered my blind 2011 predictions for horse racing. The only part that rang true was the word blind. It was a dismal performance, albeit with a couple close calls.

Let's recap each of my 10 predictions and see where I went wrong in most of the cases....

1) A Derby/Preakness Double. We almost started off fairly strong here with Animal Kingdom running a close second in the Preakness and was in position to grab the double as he flew down the stretch after Shackleford. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, so we're 0 for 2011 so far.

2) A Filly will be ITM in a TC Race. Whoops. Swing and a miss. He heads back to the bench with his head lowered. 0 for 2 space fans.

3) The Belmont will be won by a horse with double digit odds. Huzzah, we're on the board. You probably could say I didn't really go out on a limb here but there was some serious 3-year olds in the field. Ruler On Ice won in the slop at odds approaching 25-1. No shut out here, 1 for 3.

4) Fly Down will win a Grade 1. Was caught with my fly down on this one. XYZ, as they say. He ran in two Grade 1's in the first quarter of the year, finishing 5th in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream and a disappointing 13th at Meydan in the Dubai World Cup. Scorecard: 1 for 4.

5) The Arkansas Derby will give us the 2011 Derby winner. Close but no cigar. Nehro, the second place finisher in the Derby came out of the Arkansas Derby, and unfortunately Archarcharch drew the dreaded rail and was doomed from the start, suffering a career-ending injury during the early going of the Run for the Roses. See what I mean about being close. 1 for 5 folks.

6) Sub 4 hour trek to the Spa. 4:02. What can I's probably just not meant to be. Construction on the Thruway between Exits 40 and 41 all summer set me back enough to not make the final stretch drive. 1 for 6 (and reeling).

7) Santa Anita is awarded the 2012 Breeders' Cup. Bingo. At this time last year, folks were still figuring Belmont was in the mix. Not so fast, hoss. Back on the board. 2 for 7 (kinda like my shooting percentage in college).

8) A 3 year old wins the BC Classic. I should've prognosticated that a 3-year-old would be the morning line favorite. Had a few chances here in Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve. The 4-year-old Drosselmeyer upset my projection here. 2 for 8, batting .250 and barely above the Mendoza line.

9) Haskell Hat is green. I studied the past 12 years worth of hats, and went with green for the 2011 color of the premier big racing day hat. Blew it 2 for 9 (.222)

10) Garret Gomez wins his first TC race. He rode Master of Hounds in the Derby and Belmont, where the best he could do was 5th in the Derby. He rode Sway Away, a buzz horse, in the Preakness and is still searching for that elusive first Triple Crown victory. Final tally: 2 for 10 (.200).

We'll be back after a trip down to Lily Dale to read the 2012 tea leaves in December to see if we can improve on our 2011 scorecard and get back to the over .500 record posted in 2010.



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