RSS Feed for this Blog
RSS Feed for all TBA Posts

Monday, April 11, 2011

One of Those Days & SpaceSheet 2.0

Yesterday was one of those days.  You know the ones I'm talking about. Where you just shouldn't get out of bed? My Sunday, the only day during tax season that I can actually sleep in a little, started with the Space Kid deciding he was ready to rock and roll at 6:15am. No problem.  I like the kid, so it wasn't all that bad.  Things went steadily downhill from there.

I walked downstairs and saw that my beloved puppy had left me a lovely present at the foot of the stairs. He's had his buddy, my in-laws dog, spending the weekend with us, so he's been a little out of sorts and eating the wrong food all weekend.  OK, not so bad.

I proceeded to take Tanner Jones out for our morning walk (after the clean up) and to pick up my morning paper, the one that I write for, and someone had swiped it. Or the paper-man (there's no such thing as paperboys anymore) didn't enjoy my last tip.  Strike three -- all before 6:30am.

The day continued to move forward without incident and the kids actually went down nicely for naps and the Space Gal headed out shopping.  Ahh....the house all to myself, time to fire up TVG and Keeneland and make a few wagers and recover from a so-so Saturday at the windows. 

The race on the screen was the third from Keeneland. Instead of playing my usual Pick 3, it looked like a hittable trifecta and I liked three horses. Could box 'em for 50 cents for 3 beans and call it a day.  Decided to go 2x3x5 and play a $6 ticket as I thought only the 2 and 4 could win and used the 1 in the second position with 2 other longer shots in the three hole.  The 2 and 4 end up being favorites at 5/2 and 2/1, respectively and the 1 drifts to 6/1 from ML of 9/2. I make the bet.  Well, at least I thought I did.  Comes in 4-1-2. Hey $29...not bad, I'll take a good start to my wagering day. Check my account. No increase in account balance.  Check today's bets. Nothing.  WTF. Heart races a little. Close computer. Deep breath.  Time to work on the SpaceSheet.  No reason to attempt a Strike 5.  And no, I didn't have a bet on Rory McIlroy, but I am Irish.

So when we decided it wouldn't be in our best interests to continue wagering, we started pulling together the annual SpaceSheet to unveil today and help me with my tri-weekly (is there such a thing) submission of my Derby Dozen. Talk about a list in shambles.

The Derby Trail is certainly more murky today, any type of analysis needs some studying.  Several years ago I put together an Excel spreadsheet of the 20 post positions and background statistics including pedigree, dosage, last three Beyer speed figs, AWD for sire/damsire and trainer/jockey information among other things. A sorta one-stop shop information guide to the Kentucky Derby. I was inspired by the book, Betting the Kentucky Derby, by Dean Keppler, who listed a number of key factors to consider when betting the run for the roses.

It's helped me in the past, no more than last year...see last year's prognostication!

I hope you enjoy the spreadsheet, I will continue to update up to the Derby. You'll notice it has some holes for BSFs for horses running in the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes next weekend. It is also located on my right sidebar under the "About Me" section for your viewing pleasure. I hope it comes in handy, and if you can think of anything that would be helpful to add, leave a comment.

1 Comment:

Frank said...

Good stuff, Geno - thanks for the legwork. One quibble: to channel the immortal Allen Iverson... dosage? we talkin' about dosage?!?! Not real data -- dosage?!?


blogger templates 3 columns | Make Money Online