Oakey Dokey Smokey

Tweet It's finally here....Oaks Day and the anticipation to get this weekend started is over. We'll be spending the early afternoon with handicapper extraordinaire GG down at the Wehrle OTB (a time honored tradition unlike any other) to have some lunch and play the ponies and catch Rachel's payback race. You know what they say about payback. Look out, little Z, she's a'comin.

I took a look at the Oaks card last evening and while I think Blind Luck is the creme de le creme, I think there are three horses that I'll be boxing in a trifecta with her: It's Tea Time, coming off a game effort in the Ashland at Keeneland; Tidal Pool with Mr. Churchill (Borel) in the irons after two nice Beyers; and Amen Hallelujah, a horse I've been following closely who was last beaten by Devil May Care at GP, who will be in gate 11 in the big one on Saturday. The other horse that scares me in here and if I play a $0.50'er I'll throw her in underneath in the 3rd spot is Champagne d'Oro, a Medaglia d'Oro who has a couple solid outings to her credit and looks to be maturing for trainer Eric Guillot.

As promised we have a cast of characters (under their aliases) agreed to contribute their Derby thoughts to this post and we'll give the boys (and Gal) their due as loyal readers to this blog.....

First up, the infamous JB, who you can find under the trees at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes day, 'cappin away with his boys and picking winners like no other...

Geno: Thanks for the invitation to participate. I must admit I haven't spent a ton of time preparing for this year's race. Here are my thoughts: (1) Look at the smaller horses in the field. Small hoofs and a light frame are a deadly combination over a slick Churchill surface (see Mine that Bird). (2) Watch the races earlier in the day. If the rail is the fastest part of the track (and it usually is at a soggy Churchill) look closely at post positions and for regular Churchill riders to take advantage of it. (3) Look for horses washed out in the paddock or post parade. Some horses really feel the pressure of the day. (4) Examine each horses last workout at Churchill Downs. If a horse is bred for the distance and lights up the Mike Welsch's watch -- watch out. (5) Look for jockey's who've ridden their horse on a regular basis.

Horses: Lookin at Lucky - most likely to hit the board in a wide open race. Baffert must be respected. Awesome Act - jockey due for a breakthrough performance. Should have plenty of pace to run into. Noble's Promise - Almost took down Lucky in Arkansas. Throw out last race. Dublin - Very consistent. Everything points to a career performance. Super Saver - This horse reminds me of Bluegrass Cat who ran second to Barbaro at 31-1. Discreetly Mine - Decent 2yo form. Just a hunch.

Next up is my boy, Wack, hailing from Lancaster, NY and as good a 'capper as they come. You may remember, Wack asked me a year ago today about the wet Tomlinson numbers in this blog and it has become part of his regular vocabulary.....here he goes....

Gotta love when JB prefaces his take with "I must admit I haven't spent a ton of time preparing for this year's race. Here are my thoughts," and then writes a 2 paragraph blog that was better than most articles I've read (except the always top notch shit on equispace.blogspot.com). My thoughts are as usual, much simpler. I'm betting that a 0:45 and change opening half-mile burns up most of the speedballs, i.e. Sidney's Candy, Line of David, Conveyance. To a lesser degree American Lion and Discreetly Mine. Also included in this pack should be horses like Jackson Bend and Paddy O'Prado. With that said, my Derby exacta, will be Ice Box closing from waaay back and Super Saver, who has the pedigree to be close enough to the early lead and still hang at the wire. If I box a tri, I'm still not including Lucky from the rail or Sidney's Candy - just a hunch. Probably would include Awesome Act to be ITM.

We'll give Crazy Joe Davoli the spotlight next, hailing from smallBany and part of the Obviously NY Stables group who own the impressive Canadian Ballet and Mother Russia racehorses. Crazy Joe says....

Derby bombs away with the two favorites drawing horrible post positions. I'll take Baffert speed any day on any ticket so it's Conveyance with improving stalkers Super Saver and Awesome Act. IRS Ticket!!!!!

Next up is another Capital District hometown boy, Jazzy Jeff, a big fan of ONY and a cool fellah to hang with at the track and Siro's afterwards....cashes big tickets...and is calling for the three-peat!

Here goes - 3 entries: (1) American Lion - Good for the distance. Like the bullet this week for readiness. They have worked him in good company all year. This horse seems well trained for a variety of pace outcomes. In the end, I like the Musket Man analogies, not just coming out of the Illinois Derby, but in other ways he and his connections seem to mirror the way that horse came in last year and performed so brilliantly in the Triple Crown Series. (2) Awesome Act - I get a sense of navigating toward this spot. Willing to throw out the Wood as slow and take a disproportionate degree of encouragement out of a faster Gotham, where he handled traffic so well (key for this 20 horse pile-up) -- and, I think the 98 could become a 106 and that might be all it takes. Something tells me this guy might have the best career of them all. (3) Super Saver - I could go on about value, and that he ran so strong in November at Churchill, blah, blah, blah. But, the reality is I settle on this colt for Jockey reasons, almost alone. Few seem to have the resolve, gambler's guts, overall fortitude and plain calmness to ride tight on the corners and save ground in this race the way that Calvin does it, and this makes him a contender in the Derby regardless of mount. I don't know if the Red Sea will part for Bo-"Rail" the way it did when he was up on Street Sense, or if he is on a ride that will charge like the Bird did from last to first in the stretch last year. But, I think he just might make a run at 3 in a row if there is any speed whatsoever in the first 6 furlongs.

My longtime pal, Dr. No, from the B-lo is on the clock next, he has one of the smoothest golf swings around and has been known to capture a W-2G more frequently than not...Dr. No is still hoping trainer James Bond will someday get a horse into the Derby...

In the Derby...... Lookin at Lucky looks so good. I will play one saver with Super Saver. Ice Box fills out my tri. Thanks again and good luck.

My beloved Space Gal (who has a killer RttR stable) didn't want to be left out so she is going to put her two dimes in (she's much more expensive than two cents).....but she won't give us any analysis other than verbal, so I took down this interview with her during a commercial...

I just used "speed scores, routers, jockeys and trainers." The Smith and Talamo selections are solely based on the show, Jockeys. Plus I've learned whenever I pick against my favorite jockeys, I lose. And right now, I'm too busy watching the Housewives to write my own blurb for your ridiculous blog. 1. Sidney's Candy 2. Devil May Care 3. Paddy O'Prado 4. Jackson Bend

Sending in his annual Derby email is GG (who I'll spend a few hours with today in the bar at the Wehrle OTB) and I see he's back to his 2005 trifecta strategy (he boxed Giacomo and Afleet Alex and caught the 71-1 Closing Argument with the ALL button). I still have the email that he sent me before the 05 Derby that says "save this email for evidence!" GG shares his thoughts with us.....

Geno, GG with my opinion on The Kentucky Derby. What a difference it makes seeing this race on paper. The first thing I like to do in the derby is to cut the race from a 20 horse field by eliminating horses that in my opinion can't hit the board. This includes Stately Victor6, Deans Kitten8, Paddy10, Devil11, Mission14, Backtalk18 and Homeboy19. The race has come up with a ton of speed and I think the only one you can keep in is Super Saver4 and that is only because I think Borel will try to keep him off the pace and come up the rail with his typical move. I am taking out all other speed because this looks like a battle that none of them can withstand. This includes Line Of David5, American Lion7, Conveyance12, Discreetly15, Sidney's Candy20. I now have an eight horse field which makes things a little more manageable. Lookin at Lucky1 looks good, but this is no day to play the favorite and the rail will hurt. If you like him, how can you not use Noble's Promise3, as he runs with him every time and Martinez rides him quite well. This crowd will not bet Willie so he will be a price. Jackson Bend13 is 9 for 9 hitting the board and I like that he is a closer. Ice Box2 is a closer and had a great work in the slop and I really like Dublin17 to hit the board. That leaves Awesome Act16 and Make Music9 who I will only use in 2nd and 3rd. I dont think they can win, but Rosario can hit board on 9 and he is quite capable. Ok, so what to do with it? I have an 8 horse field that I will play tris with. I will box Lookin at Lucky1 and Dublin17 with 2, 3, 4,9, 13, 16. I might do the same with Noble's Promise3 and box him with Dublin and Lucky with these horses. These are my top 3. Good Luck. The funny thing this year as that the name players don't have many choices. Did you notice that the only name horses this year are Sidney, David, Dean and Kris? ~GG

The Space Bro, never one to lecture on any topic gave us this to ponder...

The 136th Run for the Roses that is sponsored by YUM Brands! So why not Sidney’s Candy? The Craig Family’s favorite colt will start from the outside and bring home the sweet victory! Followed closely by one of the four Pletcher entries, the filly Devil May Care in 2nd. I have a feeling Lookin at Lucky will get squeezed early and make a late charge for 3rd.

That's it for now....if I receive something from the Puma and the Saratoga Resident, we'll update this bad boy....thanks all for reading and participating....feel free to throw in a comment. Whodoyoulike?

Join Me and 50,000 of My Closest Friends...

Tweet Well at least now we know it will be quite roomy for me and 50,000 of my closest friends on June 6th.

Pros:
- It should be comfortable moving around spacious Belmont Park
- Betting lines should be scarce (and the Belmont could end up being a pretty good betting race)
- Beer lines should be manageable and if it rains...
- The trains won't be jammed
- Meeting up with friends and acquaintances (JB! The Puma! Saratoga Rez!) won't be impossible
- There's still a terrific undercard with $1M guaranteed all-stakes Pick 4 and all-stakes Pick 6 wagers)
- I'm driving in from Altoona, PA and google maps says 5 hours, I'll be shooting for a 4:59 (naturally)
- The Luv Gov's got a shot now (check out this post I discovered today from Newsday.com last August that linked right here)
- I'm not even going to say it (and jinx the waterworks situation)

Cons:
- Not much history to be made unless Calvin gets his jockey triple.
- TV ratings and our chance to capture some of the public that was becoming enamored with Rachel Alexandra is slowly slipping away.
- We'll have to read a million posts about where Rachel should run next (did you know that there's a filly triple crown?)
- If you made your attendance guess in the office pool before the announcement and you thought she was coming, thanks for the donation - you just lost.

Last three Belmont Stakes Day attendance figs:
2006 - 45,037 (Jazil)
2007 - 46,870 (Rags to Riches)
2008 - 95,476 (Da'Tara)

I wish I could understand why a city with 19 million people can't fill this joint every year...

JB: Dialing It In

Tweet JB from smallbany is dialing in his Derby selections in tonight's guest post. I want to thank him for spending the time and filling in during the last few weeks of tax season while I was under the gun...he continues to share some of his handicapping prowess, sit back and take a quick Derbyism 101 course from my main man:

When it comes to trying to pick a winner in America's biggest race there are a many factors racetrackers from across the country must consider. Here are JB's top 10 Derbyisms for the 135th edition of the Run for the Roses:

Derbyism #1 - Consider only the fastest horses. Look at past performances on dirt with particular attention to triple digit beyer figures. Horses to watch: Friesan Fire (104), Dunkirk (108), I Want Revenge (113 and 103), West Side Bernie (101), Win Willy (102).

Derbyism #2 - Consider horses who have trained well, exceptionally well, over the Churchill surface. Mike Welsch of the DRF does a superb job watching horses hit the track and analyzing workouts. He is worth a read. Horses to watch: Friesan Fire (57.4 5F), Pioneerof the Nile (101 flat 5f easy).

Derbyism #3 - Consider horses peaking at the right time. Even if a colt didn't win his last prep, watch the replays. If you did in 2005 you would have seen a very game Giacomo run fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Horses to watch: Hold Me Back (2nd), Dunkirk (2nd), West Side Bernie (2nd), Chocolate Candy (2nd), Desert Party (2nd).

Derbyism #4 - Consider the size of previous fields horses have run in. Analyze whether they raced inside, outside or needed the lead. The Derby field is 20 horses. Some racers just don't like getting dirt kicked in their face, being covered up or waiting in the gate. Friesan Fire's Louisiana Derby and I Want Revenge's Wood stand out the most.

Derbyism #5 - Consider jockey changes. Jockeys tend to stay on horses who have it figured out. Trainers making jockey changes might be looking for something that isn't there.
Pioneerof the Nile (Gomez), Friesan Fire (Saez), Papa Clem (Bejarano), Hold Me Back (Desormeaux) all retained their mounts.

Derbyism #6 - Consider post position. For some horses it doesn't matter (see Big Brown) but for others (like Funny Cide) it can put them in a nice spot to run a big race. See Geno's spreadsheet for where winners have won from over the past 39 years and what posts have been ITM the most and which ones have been the dead positions on the board.

Derbyism #7 - Pace makes the race. This is more true this year than in past years, as there is little separating the top tier horses, and with a fast pace, the four second tier horses. Fractions like 23.4/5 +, 47. 2/5 +, favor I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, Desert Party and Pioneerof the Nile. Faster pace helps Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, West Side Bernie and Win Willy. [EquiSpace comment: Check out Louisiana racecaller Travis Stone's pace analysis post which confirms JB's pace thoughts]

Derbyism #8 - Horses don't talk but trainers do. Dunkirk - Pletcher: "gives me my best chance to win my first Derby." Pioneerof the Nile - Baffert: "After watching [his last workout] I am confident he is going to show up and run the race of his life on Saturday." Friesan Fire - Jones: "if he wins the Derby we're in great shape for the Triple Crown."

Derbyism #9 - Consider horse maturity and experience. To win the Derby a horse must run his race, meaning he must break well, use tactical speed to get to where he wants to be, RELAX i.e., get his stride and breathing rhythm going without working too hard and start moving forward near the top of the stretch without having to change course or back off. Obviously, the jockey will have a lot to do with all of these things. Seasoned horses seem to do all these things best.

Derbyism #10 - Track condition or track bias that day. Churchill on the day of the 2007 Breeder's Cup was an inside biased track. Watch the races leading up to post. Is the track favoring speed or closers? Examine whether winners on the undercard make sense.

Derbyism #11 - Poly preps. Commenter FriarCat emailed and asked about California's Derby contenders running on dirt. This year, California horses' form has held up well when shipping and running on dirt. Papa Clem won the Arkansas Derby and I Want Revenge was a monster winning the Gotham and Wood in New York. Colonel John's performance in last year's Travers showed that a polytrack player with a dirt pedigree can win on dirt against top tier stakes competition Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) - Beat every California horse running in this year's Derby. Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway -- ran second to Tiznow on the BC Classic), Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow)

JB's Derby Picks
Top three
1. Friesan Fire - "With this horse we're following the steps of Hard Spun," Trainer Larry Jones. Fortunately there is no Street Sense in the race. Jockey Saez ran 2nd last year on Eight Belles. Larry Jones goes into retirement with a Derby champion.
2. Pioneerof the Nile - Baffert is a great trainer on his way to being inducted in the Horse Racing Hall of Fame this coming August in Saratoga. It's a pretty nice story. Pioneer's sire Empire Maker should have won in 2003, but for a foot injury that threw off his training. Gomez is the nation's hottest jockey.
3. Dunkirk - A victory by Dunkirk would be a surprise because he didn't race as a 2YO. He might be a freak, but I don't think he's as good as Curlin was at the same point in his 3YO campaign. His lack of seasoning in a 20 horse field makes him hard to love.

Next two
4. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance was visibly awesome. Maybe too awesome. Talamo has never ridden in the Derby. Mullins is not your typical derby trainer. He still hasn't beaten Pioneer of the Nile.
5. Desert Party - bin Suroor horses always seem to run really well in the big races. He had a solid final prep and looks to be sitting on a career performance. He is good enough to win it.

Outside chance
6. Chocolate Candy - A hot pace and Mike Smith bring him to the leaders at the 1/8th pole.
7. Hold Me Back - Liked the way he ran in his last prep. Kent will be picking off horses late. Plus Tug likes him.

Big surprise
8. Win Willy - Triple digit beyer on dirt beating Old Fashioned. Sired by Derby champion Monarchos.

Bigger surprise
9. West Side Bernie - Triple digit beyer in the Wood, but not sure if his pedigree holds up.

Biggest surprise
10. Mr. Hot Stuff - Eoin Harty is great. Tiznow was great. This horse is improving and under the radar.

So those are my picks for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby. Like many of you, I'll be glued to a TV set when the flag drops this Saturday. My version of the Space Gal is reminding me to remind you to "box it." I think I'll take her advice. [EquiSpace comment: Yeah she's the same gal that preached "gray skies, gray horse," back on the Spa's opening day last year, four grays won that day, so she knows what she's talkin' bout]

In closing, I like to think I handicap a little bit like Seve Ballesteros played golf -- with a lot of imagination, a little flair for the dramatic, an appreciation of being in the battle and most of all, a love of the game. Good luck everyone.

JB Part Deux: Getting Closer

Tweet Today's guest post is the second of a four part series (I just made that up) from Saratoga Springs veteran handicapper JB who enters the Space Station for a recap of his thoughts as we progress down the road to Louisville. Thanks to JB for filling in for me while I'm searching for every last deduction...

With less 2 weeks 'til Tax day and 4 weeks until we hear a still smarting University of Louisville Marching Band play my "Old Kentucky Home" in front of a 150,000 plus at Churchill there have been major developments on the road to the roses. Quality Road fresh off a very professional performance in the Florida Derby has developed a quarter crack in his right hind hoof and, according to the most under the radar trainer in the business, James Jerkens, he is very concerned about QR's making it to the Derby. Looking back at QR's stylish 1 1/8 mile performance on a Gulfstream surface listed as fast he clearly established himself as a top tier contender who must be seriously considered by racetrackers preparing their Derby picks.

Todd Pletcher wasn't as impressed, claiming track maintenance staff worked the dirt course up to favor front running speed horses which favored the stalking QR and disadvantaged the closers. Dunkirk, Toddy's best hope for wearing a rose boutonniere in early May, is a closer. Anyone who witnessed the race had to be visually impressed with Dunkirk's sweeping move, Garrett Gomez up, inhaling all but one horse on the far turn. But he wasn't able to match QR down the stretch and settled for a disappointing place finish. I like Dunkirk and I believe his 150K in graded earnings will be enough to get him in the Derby field. But I'll be watching who Go Go choses to ride in the big race. That's because Bob Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile will be heading to the Bluegrass state as the reigning Santa Anita Derby champion. Although he was a handful (rating uncomfortably would be putting it mildly) he prevailed over a Pamplemousse-less field last Saturday to stake his claim as the west coast's finest. But not so fast. A closer examination of this nearly pace-less race reveals the emergence of a Giacomo-type runner who just might get the pace scenario he needs to have his photo taken under the twin spires. Chocolate Candy closed REALLY well despite not having a lot go his way. I will be doing more research and writing on this horse as the big day approaches.

Speaking of a big day, I Want Revenge's run in the Wood Memorial was the best demonstration of racing acuity by a 3yo in a major Derby prep in recent memory. WOW. Broke last by 4 lengths, relaxed and gained ground, started his move behind a wall of horses, sawed in half at the 1/8th pole, found a seem 5 wide in the middle (not traditionally the fastest part of the Big A oval) and prevailed after a vigorous handride. 19-year old Joe Talamo looked like Laffit Pincay. Nothing short of extraordinary. He is no doubt a deserving Morning Line Derby favorite, reinforced resoundingly by the bettors in Derby Pool #3.

Unfortunately, my Belmont horse, Imperial Council will not be going to the Derby after being up close and coming up empty under Edgar Prado to finish a winded 5th. Trainer Shug McGaughey stated that he knew he had his hands full after IC acted up terribly in the paddock. The paddock at Oaklawn is exactly where you'll find winterbook Derby favorite Old Fashioned being saddled under new rider Terry Thompson for this Saturday's Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominquez lost his mount after a disappointing second place finish in the Rebel. Cagey Larry Jones must be respected for this decision. However, if Fashioned doesn't rate and fire in his final prep, Papa Clem, fresh off a very game second place finish to Jones' Friesan Fire in the Lousiana Derby, will be ready to punch his ticket to Louisville via the Arkansas Derby express.

Speaking of express; there will be an express first class delivery from Dubai of two Godolphin 3yo's with a big upside. Regal Ransom and Desert Party come off a 1-2 finish in Dubai's 2 million prep for 3 year olds (the UAE Derby). These two colts, ridden by rising star Alan Garcia and world class Frankie Dettori, respectively, are both wildcards to most American handicappers, including this one. But Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum; the most powerful force in racing worldwide has made no secret of his quest to capture America's most prestigious race. Watch out! Speaking of watching out, watch out for a late blooming 3yo colt posting Derby type speed figs on his way to capturing two major prep races won by past Derby champions Street Sense (Tampa Bay Derby) and War Emblem (Illinois Derby - h/t Wind Gatherer). Musket Man still might not be getting the respect he deserves, maybe because he's faced lighter caliber competition on less notable tracks, but with a little racing luck and a good post position he's versatile and fresh enough to be a factor on Derby Day.

JB's Derby Baker's Half Dozen plus 1:
1. I Want Revenge - His Wood performance commands respect
2. Friesan Fire - Hard Spun ran 2nd off a 6 week lay-off
3. Dunkirk - My gut says there's more
4. Pioneerof the Nile - Can he do it on dirt?
5. Old Fashioned - Best value in pool #3
6. Chocolate Candy - Good enough to pull off an upset
7. Musket Man - "Best chance ever for me in the Derby," Coa
Ones to watch: Regal Ransom, Desert Party

Dropping from JB's Derby Baker's Half +1:
Quality Road - Hind right hoof injury can't be good
The Pamplemousse - Leg injury puts him on the sidelines
Imperial Council - Would've loved to see Shug saddle one in the Derby

JB in the House

Tweet With tax season still looming here for me and being the Commish for the annual office NCAA Calcutta starting tonight I've enlisted my guest blogger dude, JB, to provide us with some in-depth analysis over the next few weeks on the Road to Louisville. Let's give him a warm Space Station welcome, grab a little JB and diet and enjoy...

It's that time of year again when racetrackers from across the country catch Derby fever. I, for one, suffer from a more advance malady I like to call Triple Crown hysteria. So for the next few weeks I will be examining the horses getting set to run in the most exciting two minutes, or 1:59 if you're Secretariat, in sports. With the First Saturday in May still more than seven weeks away, which can either be an eternity or not enough time, depending on the condition of your horse, we'll have plenty of time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Let me start out by saying the last two three year old crops have produced two racing freaks; Jess Jackson's magnificent Curlin and IEAH Stables Derby phenom, Big Brown. Compared to their respective Derby fields, both these horses were very lightly raced coming into the Triple Crown series, yet Big Brown, breaking from the 20 post and running wide the entire way, threw an anchor on the field at the top of the stretch and won VERY IMPRESSIVELY. Curlin ran a miraculous third in tight quarters behind a Churchill Downs loving Street Sense and dead game Hard Spun. So despite their lack of traditional Derby prepping both horses stepped up significantly on Derby day.

So is there a a proverbial freak in this years crop? Well if you're a tote board watcher (and who isn't) the odds-on favorite at the close of Derby pool #2 is the lightly raced, Todd Pletcher trained Dunkirk. Clearly he is not taking a traditional path to the Derby. Pointing to the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby on March 28th, and with $0 in graded stakes earnings, he'll need to step up huge to even make it into the field. If you're one of those accountant types [Editors Note: I think he just took a shot at me] who like to follow the money, even early money, you have to take notice. Speaking of taking notice, a trainer with great recent success in the 3YO colt (the aforementioned Hard Spun) and filly (Eight Belles and 3YO Filly Champ Proud Spell) divisions has decided to put off retiring and train two very capable Derby bound colts. Larry Jones is loaded and now we all know it. He is training both the royally bred (AP Indy) Friesan Fire, fresh off a sweep of Louisiana's Fair Grounds 3YO series; and a 5-6 lifetime speedball Old Fashioned (named after everyone's grandmother's favorite drink), ridden by the very talented and under-rated Ramon Dominquez. I love Friesan Fire. He is battle tested, running against fields of quality and size. He is bred for the Derby and Triple Crown distances. He can rate and relax off the pace, changes gears on command for stable rider Gabriel Saez and will get over 7 weeks rest before the Derby. I hold that he is the best and most proven of all the east coast runners on the triple crown trail. Old Fashioned is fast, very fast. But his last race, after chasing a very hot pace and making the lead, he was hooked by a bomb down the lane, handing him his first career defeat. Larry Jones said post race "the track was heavy." But with the game's most patient jock on his back, Old Fashioned must learn to to settle down right quick. Stay tuned for his next start in the Arkansas Derby on April 11th. I Want Revenge's breakout performance in the 1 1/16 two turn Gotham on the Big A's inner track was a head turner for sure. But my head was turned before he entered the gate. Revenge's trainer J-Mull aka Jeff Mullens shipped his first time dirt starter from the left coast with hot shot rider Joe Talamo. That was news. I can't remember the last time J-Mull shipped in a 3YO to Aqueduct. And I know I've never seen Talamo in a winter/spring stakes race in the Big Apple. So what gives? Revenge is a solid, mature race horse who was in complete control from the first call, making legitimate fractions while leaving plenty in the tank for his stretch run. Maybe it wasn't the most stellar field, certainly not compared to the Lousiana Derby, but there was one horse who caught my eye. Imperial Council, trained by Shug McGaughey, took a lot of money that day, maybe because everyone in New York gets excited when Shug shows up in the spring with a 3YO (we all loved Easy Goer). But Shug isn't the kind of trainer to bring a horse to Churchill unless he thinks he has a legitimate shot to make some noise. He closed very well in the Gotham. Maybe there will be a hotter pace for him to close into when he faces Revenge again in the Wood Memorial on April 4th.

Two very impressive California based runners are now on a collision course to lock horns in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4th, following Pioneerof the Nile's win (he was giving the field 5-7 lbs.) in the San Felipe and The Pamplemousse's 6 length victory in the Sham. Top notch trainer Bob Baffert and the world's #1 jockey Garret Gomez combine to make Pioneerof the Nile the west coast's best chance for meeting Kentucky's governor. Garret Gomez is riding like Jordan played in the Finals -- he is in the zone. So if Gomez is up on a horse with a shot, and Baffert, who is very well known for getting horses ready for Kentucky's annual rose party, Pioneer will be ready. The Pamplemousse has looked like a world beater in his 2009 season, taking down 2008 BC Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie and running comfortably on or near the lead in all his starts. But he has yet to be looked in the eye and go belly down in the stretch. A lot of horses look uncatchable when running up front. But inevitably, another horse will look them in the eye and reveal what's inside. The Pamplemousse has yet to show this dimension. As far as Cali horses going from synthetics to dirt, Colonel John's (Garret Gomez up) performance in last year's midsummer derby at the Spa demonstrated that a horse who runs big on synthetics with a legitimate dirt foundation in his pedigree, can win anywhere.

JB's Baker's (1/2) Dozen Derby List:

1. Friesan Fire - Resting and Right
2. Dunkirk - Key him the Florida Derby
3. Pioneerof the Nile - Hasn't run his best race yet
4. Old Fashioned - Needs to discover patience is a virtue
5. I Want Revenge - Not going to get an easy lead in Wood
6. The Pamplemousse - Gut check next time out
7. Imperial Council - I wish there was a Derby Show pool. Belmont calling

Next Entry: Handicapping the Race

Gone Fishin'

Tweet Off this morning to Saratoga to do a little fishin' for winners!

First stop, Ballston Spa, for a little golf match with The Saratoga Resident and M-Bug. A East (Capital District) vs. West (Buffalo) grudge match wherein they'll be trying to wrestle the annnual East-West crown away from me and my partner G-Money (G-$$).

Received a funny email yesterday from my pal JB who gave me the idea for the Toga meet contest (last day to pick is tomorrow, the picks are coming in fast and furious). Apparently his fiancee (let's call her JB's K) wanted in on the action but thought the questions were unfair so she posed her own contest for those who wish to participate (her answers first, mine in parenthesis):

1. Most popular shoes not worn by horses - Prada (Jimmy "I Lost My" Choo)
2. Least crowded ladies room - 2nd floor clubhouse, past finish line (no idea)
3. Best place to watch races - 3rd floor clubhouse - Turf Terrace on the finish line (Stewards booth)
4. Most popular drink - Sparkling Saratoga water (Bud Light - shameless client plug)
5. Where to go after the races - The Lodge (Grey Gelding)
6. Where not to go after the races - The Horseshoe (Harness Track)
7. Most popular Travers Day outfit - Ann Taylor sun dress and hat (LOL)
8. Best way to pick a winner - Gray skies = gray horse (Ask Saratoga Resident, avoid choice)

Thanks, JB's K, for your input and hilarity. PS I won't be tracking this contest.

And they're off at Saratoga.......