Derby Winner's Preakness Odds in the '00s

Tweet I did a little unscientific research this morning as I was curious what a horse who went off at 8-1 odds in the Derby would potentially go off at in the Preakness. I limited my sample to the last ten Preakness' (2000-2009) and found some interesting results. Horse Racing Nation projects Super Saver (#1 OCD Pellets 3yo colt in the TBA Standings) to be at 5-2 when the gates open for the 135th running of the Preakness (presented by Crackberry this year?).



Based on what I see above, HRN's projection of 5-2 odds doesn't seem to be way out of line. The closest horse to Super Saver's Derby odds in the past ten years is Barbaro and he went off at 1-2, but his Derby performance was much more dominant than Super Saver's. It is interesting that both 50-1 Derby winners went off right around 6 to 7-1 in the Preakness and those in the 10 to 20-1 range went off between 2-1 and 3-1. I wouldn't be surprised if the field fills up to see Super Saver somewhere around 3-1 or 7-2 at post time. The winner has also come out of three posts twice over the last ten years: 4, 8 and 9 and no post inside the 4 hole.

Stay tuned.....

They're Baaack...

Tweet I noticed a link over at the Paulick Report the other day tucked away underneath the 3,000 Derby-related posts on horses, trainers, owners, breeders, ad nauseum about the Big Event. Congress is back knocking on horse racing's door. Letters were sent out last week by Senator Udall and Representative Whitfield, the congressmen on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce that has the responsibility for monitoring the industry and upholding the Interstate Horseracing Act.

You may remember two years ago in June 2008, hearings took place discussing the state of the industry, in particular, governance and horse safety. Integrity and horseplayer issues were largely ignored. The letters were directed to Waldrop at the NTRA, Phipps at the Jockey Club and Martin at RCI. It's comical that Congress keeps going back to the Barbaro and Eight Belles tragedies to lead into their questions of the industry. Funny, how they seem to show up always right around Triple Crown time.... At least, Waldrop can respond that he took measures and tell how great his Safety and Integrity Alliance is and how all the tracks (check that, the ones that participated) except Pimlico passed the rigorous independent testing to the Alliance Code of Standards. The RCI have established model rules and Racing and Medication Testing Consortium recommendations to protect horses and their riders. The Jockey Club....ummm....well Marzelli was the one adamant that horse racing can self regulate and didn't need central governance. Now Congress is back asking how they are doing with the "self regulation."

Responses are due back to Congress by May 14th....it'll be interesting to see if more hearings will result after the three respondents answer the questions posed in the letters (which can be found at the link above). The Clouseau in me thinks that is where Congress will go....

I wonder if Mr. Phipps thinks that....

If You Could Turn Back Time...

Tweet No, I'm not a big Cher fan, but I do often wonder how Sonny Bono snagged her? And on the 16th anniversary of the Tonya Harding-Nancy Kerrigan incident, we're going to rev up the way-back machine and list my top five sporting events that I would attend in a heartbeat (now knowing the outcome) and the top five sporting events if I could go back and change the outcomes......feel free to leave a comment to share yours (if afforded the opportunity) or what event you would alter the outcome of....as you can tell it's a little slow in the Space Lab these days...but here goes....

Top Five Sporting Events I Would've Attended if Afforded the Chance

1 - Secretariat's Belmont Stakes. Who wouldn't want to see this "tremendous machine" win by 31 1/2 lengths to take the Triple Crown in 1973?
2 - Miracle on Ice. Lake Placid 1980. Do You Believe in Miracles? U-S-A! U-S-A!
3 - 1958 NFL Championship (Colts-Giants). Greatest Game Ever Played. Unitas (my idol) hands off to Ameche to win first ever overtime championship game at Yankee Stadium. Before I was born, but I'd give my left leg (or maybe the right one) to have been there.
4 - Ali-Frazier I - The Fight of the Century. What other event had first graders taking sides. Well at least my first grade class.
5 - The Immaculate Reception. Although I cherish the moment that I put a hole through the chair in my living room (at 8 years old) jumping up and down on it while watching this game with my father....I think it would've been pretty cool to see that incredible play.

Five Sporting Events I Would Change the Outcome (you know, if I were Kazaam)

1 - Wide Right. No Contest. Instead of leading to four straight Super Bowl losses....who knows what may have happened?
2 - No Goal. Do you see a pattern here? Sabres take Stars to game seven....ya never know...ok no more Buffalo references...
3 - Home Run Throwback. I lied. This one was painful. We tackle Dyson or play ruled a forward pass (screwed again), game over. Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie combo take us to the Super Bowl (ok, so I'm delusional). Hey, this is my post so get ovah your ownself.
4 - USA/Russia Gold Medal Basketball Game, 1972 Olympics. Ball slips through Belov's hands, we win the gold.
5 - Eight Belles' Derby/Barbaro's Preakness (tie). 'Nuff said.

[Editor Update: Honorable Mention - Keith Smart's jumped clanks off rim, Syracuse wins 1987 National Championship (I was there for that one)]

Coincidence?

Tweet I was walking out of my office today and something caught my eye. I have my 2006 Derby ticket up on my horse shelf (yeah, I'm a dork) in a plastic casing and for the first time I noticed the horse's number 8 on the ticket. If you remember Barbaro wore 8 and went out and won the Derby. Two weeks later, Bernardini wore 8 to win the Preakness and finally Jazil wore 8 to win the Belmont. Coincidence? I think not.

Keep an eye out for this year's Derby design, you never know!

Derby Memories

Tweet This week brings back some fine memories from my first live Derby experience in 2006, shared with four 43YO (like the horse reference) friends. I went equipped with a notebook to try and chronicle most of the memories and jot down quotes here and there during our three day weekend retreat. Some memories to cherish starting on Thursday night Oaks-eve:

- Running into the Juice at the Red Star Tavern with his horsemen friend Chris Hill, while enjoying some nice New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc.
- Enjoying a cigar with the boys in the Maker's Mark Tavern, home of the famous bourbon.
- Taking in the sights at Sully's Bar and the elevated dancing that was taking place.
- Getting the first of many "where are you #1" text messages.

On to Churchill Downs and Oaks Day and enjoying the following:

- Seeing the Twin Spires for the first time.
- Sipping on that first mint-julep, mmm.
- Wandering the Downs soaking up the tradition and the old-time feel to the clubhouse.
- The amazing amount of headgear being sported by various ladies added to the traditional décor of the day.
- Hitting a trifecta and exacta in back to back races.
- Celebrity sightings: Peyton, Eli and Archie Manning, Coach Mike Jarvis, and CuJo (how did our boy ever recognize him without the goalie mask?)
- Nios in the High Lands for cocktails.

Derby day memories included the following:

- Breakfast with the Form.
- Lunch in private VIP area with loaded buffet and cocktails
- Taking pictures from our box seats at the eighth pole
- U of L band playing "My Old Kentucky Home" (not a dry eye in the joint)
- Cigars and Juleps at post time
- Barbaro's spectacular stretch run and Prado capturing his first Derby
- Cashing one show ticket on Steppenwolfer then rebounding in the 11th and 12th races on Gomez horses

Some favorite quotes from the weekend:

"Son, if you're here, you're a winner" from the cashier after my Oaks/Derby double ticket blew up thanks to 47-1 shot Lemons Forever!
"You're not broke and you got your shirt!" after another losing enterprise.
"You're dead for a long time"
"You have two neurons left and they are both connectred by spirochetes" Huh?
"Go big or go home"

"You, my friend, are a train wreck"
"If you can't get it done today, you can't get it done"
"A good lawyer knows when to shut up" (still waiting)
"Patrick, is that your jacket on the ground? The one you are supposed to wear in a wedding in three months?"

The weekend came to an end, friendships were forged forever and my first Run for the Roses will always be a special part of the memories one holds.

Oaks plays
10 - Bsharpsonata
8 - Proud Spell
11 - Pure Clan
3 - Awesome Chic



Oaks/Derby Double
3,8,10,11 w/ Z Fortune, Pyro, Colonel, BBJ and Big Brown

Good luck!