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Saturday, June 9, 2012

Belmont Day 2012

I think the best quote I've seen so far summing up the Belmont bummer that we are experiencing today is "one monkey don't stop the circus." (I can't remember who said/tweeted it so sorry for no attribution -- good stuff nonetheless) Making the most of what we have before us, there is still a solid betting card on tap.

Yesterday was a rough day all around with the scratch of the Derby and Preakness champ coupled with my terrible tactical driving moves trying to get to Belmont Park. It just shouldn't take 4 1/2 hours from Allentown PA. Luckily I arrived by 3 p.m. to catch the two late stakes races and file a rewrite of my initial Belmont advance for TBN.

I was asked to contribute to a CBS Philadelphia website for my plays on a $100 bankroll by Colin's Ghost proprietor Kevin Martin. Unfortunately it was before the scratch of IHA. I'll probably substitute Street Life for IHA and add Atigun underneath.

Today, around the time (2:35 p.m.) that the Easy Goer goes off we'll be live blogging the card from Belmont up through the big race at the TBN Sports, Ink blog.

A quick look at my late Pick-4 with brief commentary:

Race 8 (Grade 1 Just A Game): 1,4,5
1-Tapitsfly (3-1)has been a good horse to me in the past and should be primed to run a solid race at a decent price with Ramon in the irons. 4-Winter Memories (6-5) is a horse that is difficult to throw out of the mix as a horse for the course winning all four of his efforts at Belmont, although I think he'll have his word cut out against this talented field. Javier in the irons is always a plus. 5-Hungry Island (5-2)comes out of the a nice Grade 2 win on the Derby undercard beating Tapitsfly by a length. Johnny V on the turf at Belmont will make the More Than Ready filly a major win threat.

Race 9 (Grade 2 Woody Stephens): 2,5,6,8
Toughest race in the Pick-4 (warning: it's typically a blood bath for me). 2-Hardened Wildcat (12-1) finished three lengths behind Trinniberg in the Grade 3 Bay Shore and I think he has a nice post and his trainer Chad Brown is white hot (29%) at Belmont. 5-Bourbon Courage (5-1) is a lightly raced Lion Heart colt who had two solid efforts at the Fair Grounds before faltering in the slop in the Derby Trial. I'll give him a pass on that race and include him with Rosie in the irons (as long as the track stays dry). 6-Trinniberg (7-2) comes out of an ill-advised attempt at the Derby to cut back to a more familiar distance. The question here is whether the Derby took any toll on him. Tough to excluded just on talent alone. 8-Isn't He Clever (8-1) with Johnny V in the irons for Steve Asmussen (32%) comes off the Derby trail and should be fairly fresh (Asmussen 22% off the layoff).

Race 10 (Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap): 2,4,6
2-Boisterous is my top pick here for Shug McGaughey. I love this horse's form and he loves Belmont (6-4-0-1). 4-Desert Blanc (6-1) finished second to my top choice in the Grade 3 Ft. Marcy and warrants consideration. Ramon is in the irons and Brown is 30% second off the layoff. 6-Brilliant Speed (3-1) is another horse that rarely gives you a poor effort. He made his move too late on Derby day and I think the extra furlong is the right medicine today.

Race 11 (Grade 1 Belmont Stakes): 1,4,5,9
I'll stick with my four Buffalo News selections in the Belmont. As you can see I'm not an 3-Union Rags backer, I think he's a big, beautiful horse, I'm just not sold on him at a mile and a half.

Ticket investment: $72

Enjoy your day, the Space Gal has photo duties today from her section on the sixteenth pole so hopefully we'll have a nice montage of photos for you early next week....Good luck and I hope you cash some tickets.

1 Comment:

Anonymous said...

Ouch Geno. Are you sold on Rags now. GG


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