Channeling Kreskin 2012

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As we approach the New Year, it's time to do my 2012 prognosticating and blind guesses at what's in store for thoroughbred racing in the coming year. A few weeks ago I reviewed the results from my 2011 selections, and I batted a meek .200 (2 for 10), right on the Mendoza Line.

We'll have to try and do much better this year, though I try to make the predictions somewhat difficult, that way I look really smart if I'm right, and if not, well they're difficult.  Win-win, no?

I will probably have one gimme and this year I'm not going to jinx a 3:59 to Toga by predicting it, so sayonara seeing that pick again.

And away we go.....

1. Horse from the outside gate will win the Derby. As most of you know, there are two gates used to house the 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby. The outside gate houses 15-20. Gives me a 30% shot right? Well, no, because the two outside posts have extremely poor results over the years. Animal Kingdom did it from 16, so this is kinda gutsy going for two years in a row. You know what they say..no guts...

2. One of the Classics will end in a photo. Hmm...we haven't had a photo finish in the Derby in quite some time, so we'll throw all three races in there to take a shot that one will end in a photo. Law of averages is with me here.

3. A female jockey will be ITM in one of the classics. Another gutsy call, but Chantal Sutherland or Rosie Napravnik will make me look good here. It is all about the looks...

4. The Florida Derby will wield us the Derby winner. The Derby winner comes out of this race every few years and 2012 will follow suit.

5. One of the three winners of the Canadian classics will win a graded stake later in the year. The Plate, the Prince of Wales and Breeders' Stakes are restricted races and some folks seem to discount the horses who run in them when they run elsewhere. We're stretching a bit here, but who says a Canadian horse can't come out of one of these races and win a Grade 3, at least?

6. Haskell hat is yellow. I swung and whiffed with green in 2011 (it was black), yellow looks like it's due since it's been since 2002.

7. Pletcher will win the Saratoga Training Title. Like I said earlier, I have to have a gimme. This is as close to a gimme as they come. The Toddster doesn't mess around at the Spa and will be loaded again this summer.

8. Santa Anita will be awarded the 2013 Breeders' Cup. In a pattern of twos, I think the Great Race Place will come out of the 2012 Cup with glowing reviews and retain the championships for a second consecutive year.

9. The BC Classic winner will go off at odds greater than 10-1. Where parity was the name of the game in 2011, I don't see it being much different in 2012, and an upset winner in the Classic shouldn't be out of the question.

10. A scandal will rock the racing industry.  It happens in every other sport. Cheating uncovered, a major tote breakdown, something bad is in the waters that will make the mainstream. This is one I hope doesn't happen.

There you have it Kreskin fans, my 2012 picks of the litter.....we'll be back next December to see how I do...in the meantime....Happy New Year!

It's a Racing Festivus 2011!

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It's that time of year where we dance around the Festivus Pole and discuss Racing’s 2011 Feats of Strength and Airing of Grievances. If you remember we had our initial Festivus post in 2009, and came right back in 2010. We're all about tradition here at Space Central.

After downing a delicious Festivus dinner and a few Festivus ales we're ready to unveil our 2011 Racing Festivus for the rest of us...

"Feats of Strength"

-          Rapid Redux’s Streak. Was there any question that the little starter allowance engine that could, would crack our Festivus Feats of Strength list after winning 21 straight, 19 in 2011?

-          Resorts World Casino Construction Workers. The Aqueduct racino project that was completed, pretty much on time, in New York, nonetheless?

-          Shackleford’s Preakness. The horse that shouldn’t run more than a mile, turned back a late game effort by Derby champ Animal Kingdom to take the second jewel in Baltimore in May. It was a yeoman effort by the big guy, so he makes our “feats of strength section.”

-          Pletcher’s Saratoga Meeting. The Toddster just blew them away at the summer place to be. His 38 training wins was unprecedented and his nearest challenger, Mechanicville native Chad Brown, had 22 wins.

-          First Female Jock to Win Big Cap. She had to sweat out a ten minute inquiry, but Canadian jock Chantal Sutherland became the first female to ride the Grade 1 Big Cap winner Game On Dude at Santa Anita Park in March.

Ok, so here’s what you’re really looking to get after, my annual airing of grievances…also known as “I’ve got a lot of problems with you people!”

“Airing of Grievances”

-          ESPN anchor Stan Verritt. Courier-Journal vet Jennie Rees took him to the woodshed for his asinine comments about Rapid Redux. Good thing they don’t cover horse racing….uh wait…oh. She’d like to send a big Animal House float over to Bristol, care of Mr. Verritt.

-          Maryland’s cluster___. Frank from That’s Amore Stable has his annual grievance airing on the state of Maryland racing, some things never change.

-          NYRA $0.50 Pick-3 wager. C’mon man, you gave us the $0.50 Pick-4, cough up the Pick-3, you can do it. I won’t even ask for the 50 cent tri this year (but if you give me the P3 this year, I’ll be sure to ask next year).

-          TwinSpiresTV working on my iPad. I’m not a real big fan of the mobile TwinSpires on the iPad, but I dig the PC version where you can bet right on the screen instead of having to go back and forth. (See last year’s Apple v. Adobe – “what are we in fourth grade?” grievance.)

-          Secretariat’s Belmont Scene. Really Disney, you filmed it at Keeneland? The biggest and most historic scene in the movie and it was filmed on polycrap?

If you have any of your own grievances to air, feel free to air away in the comments, tiz the season, you know.  Merry Festivus, one and all!

BuffaLuck, Ranallo & Turf Accountants

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No, this isn't a post about the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, but another racing blog that will discuss the new HBO series Luck. I wasn't planning on discussing it other than maybe a random bullet point in a random blog....however...


I received an circuitous email sent by USA Today sportswriter and Buffalo native Erik Brady via one of my partners with the same last name (no relation) discussing the Buffalo connections of the series. Here's what I gleaned from the email:


- David Milch, the show's producer, is Buffalo-born and raised, which explains the obscure name dropping of the one-time Buffalo newspaper Courier-Express during the show. "What are you," asks the horseplayer  in the wheelchair played by Kevin Dunn, “the morning Courier-Express?” 


- Milch's childhood idol was the late Courier-Express columnist Phil Ranallo, who wrote a daily column called "What's New Harry." The column featured horseplayer Honest Harry who would dive into his many forays at the racetrack, along with his wife, Ruby.  Ranallo also happened to win the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Newspaper Writing in 1972.


- The Buffalo News' Art Director Jeff Simon wrote this review on his former classmate Milch's newest HBO series.


Who knew the various connections to Buffalo. What did I think? Well, I'm intrigued by it so far and it's way too early to make any snap judgments about its potential success. I enjoyed the racing scenes and the Pick Six players the most. I liked how they explained to the casual viewer what a "single" in the bet represented and that the scene keyed on the singled horse. The scene was breathtaking as the "bug boy" was boxed in and forced to shoot up the rail to win the key race in the sequence. 


They had to lay out a whole array of characters over the hour long show, so it did take some time to develop. While the racetrack lingo could be considered to be confusing to the non-racing fan viewer, I think in time folks will pick up on what's going on and all in all this could be very good for racing and generating new fans.


While hitting a $2.7M Pick Six doesn't happen everyday, it's similar to the way most of us were hooked on the game. A nice score and adrenaline pumping through the veins when your horse crosses the line first. We've all experienced it. That dance that the guy was doing in the hallway, yep, I know that dance.


I for one, am looking forward to giving it a chance and seeing the main characters played by Dustin Hoffman, Nick Nolte and Dennis Farina and how they develop.


On a side note, I was having lunch with my friend Moe (not my Uncle) and he mentioned that his son, a graduate of the Naval Academy, had given him a Winston Churchill book filled with quotes from the famous Englishman. He said he stumbled on the term, turf accountants, in the book and asked if I had ever heard of it. He explained that is the term used in the UK for bookmakers. We'll file that tidbit in the
"you learn something new every day" folder.

Shaking the Cobwebs Loose

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As the artist formerly known as the Saratoga Resident and I walked out of First Niagara Center last night after a gutty Sabres OT win, he poked me and asked why I haven't posted in a while. I told him I needed a little break in the action and was just taking a short hiatus and would be getting back to business this weekend and dust off the ole blog.

Sometimes it's good to do a little refresh from the blog and the ponies just to maintain perspective on real life and the job that pays the bills. I really haven't read much of anything in the last few weeks, and other than half-heartily playing some informal contests, I haven't made a wager since the Delta Jackpot Stakes (it was a good one, by the way).

I did enter both NTRA free contests this weekend, but as I went to handicap this morning, became annoyed that they did not supply past performances for the contest races. What's up with that? I'm probably not going to wager today so I didn't feel like downloading them from my TwinSpires account, so went searching at the TBA's Past Performances Search Engine and found seven of the ten races. The three races I couldn't find, were of course, one at each of the three tracks (Aqueduct, Hawthorne and Hollywood) of the contest races. Just plain out annoying. I seem to remember that they typically did provide them in past free contests. Looks like I'll be heading over to TwinSpires later.

I enjoyed reading Brock's post on Twitter last night on the way home from the game. He calls the RTIP to task about teaching the doings of social media and found it to be an entertaining post.

On a personal front, I was named the 21st president of a local charitable foundation, the Buffalo Renaissance Foundation, a group that has donated over $500,000 over our 30-year history. I've been a member of the group since 2004, and the treasurer (resident bean counter) since 2005. I'll be serving a two-year term and am looking forward to the challenge. Check out our website and some of the good things we have going on in Buffalo.

Two Bills home games left, and it's now all about the entertainment and social aspect. Surprisingly we are 4-2 at home (counting Toronto), but just haven't been able to get it done on the road. We have our arch rival Dolphins next weekend and the almighty Tebow on Christmas Eve (we have no chance).

I need to read more. I need to follow Twitter less. It's a great tool, but man can it be a distraction. Instead of reading the wonderful racing book collection I have. Looks like I have my first resolution ready for the new year.

I have had time to keep my Friday News' online column going. This week's post is my annual holiday shopping ideas (I know everyone does one, but I started it a few years ago and I like searching around for gifts that you wouldn't necessarily think about).

I did some self analysis on my wagering habits in 2011, and found a few interesting tidbits. The Pick-3 was my most successful wager and my average bet on it was $16. What troubled me however, was finding out that I didn't fare as well on my Pick-4 wagering, but when I looked to my average bet there, it offered a clue as to perhaps why I hadn't been successful. My average Pick-4 wager was $15, a dollar less than my Pick-3. That tells me I'm probably not investing enough or spreading enough in my Pick-4 wagering and "cheaping out" way too much. I did stick with certain tracks (something I promised myself I would do) and didn't stray to unfamiliar venues as much as I have in the past.

OK, time to start getting the tree up...enjoy the holiday weekend, and good luck.