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Friday, May 1, 2009

Dreaming of The Rose Ceremony

"There's only one thing I take my hat off for..."

~ the ugly dude in Urban Cowboy.
Nice prelim to the big event today as Rachel Alexandra took it to six other overmatched fillies in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) winning emphatically by over 20 lengths. Now a nice photo finish would be a great way to end the weekend tomorrow around 6pm. It is too bad that RA's connections picked the wrong race, at least it looks that way now, doesn't it? Just sayin'. Should set up a nice hyped up Ladies Classic down the road with the powerful Zenyatta, God willing. I don't think the court of public opinion will sway the connections to try the fellahs...oh well we can only wonder. Speaking of Zenyatta, I rushed home from work to catch her race on the undercard only to be disappointed in her scratch, but I'm sure it must have been in her best interests.
Well, it's our Christmas Eve. Our Super Bowl. The Big Dance. First Saturday in May. The Run for the Roses.
I can't tell you how many phone calls, emails, and texts I received today asking who I like tomorrow. It's a 20 horse race, and an incredible puzzle to figure out with a potential wet track and two horses that are trying to defy the "Derby rules" in Dunkirk (no 2yo campaign) and Friesan Fire (seven week layoff). I decided to play mainly trifecta tickets keying mostly on Friesan Fire, Dunkirk, Papa Clem and I Want Revenge (Update: IWR has scratched) in the top two spots. I like their speed numbers, their pedigrees and their wet Tomlinsons. I leaned heavily on the Average Winning Distances (AWD) of the parents. I think it has to be a solid number to go the mile and a quarter. These are the four I think can win the Derby. I worked the tickets around them.
I used a mix of horses in the three hole including Musket Man, Hold Me Back, Regal Ransom, General Quarters, Chocolate Candy, Pioneerof the Nile, Summer Bird and Desert Party.
My thought process is that the track will probably come up wet and that typically there is a surprise horse in the tri somewhere, so I looked to some of the deep closers and late runners to catch 3rd. I threw out PoTN on top as I just don't think he can win. I've put most of my eggs in FF's basket (included a $3 Future Wager at 19-1 - woo hoo) and if he comes through it will be a good day at the Space Station. Ya gotta bring home the gal you took to the dance...
There's also a chance Regal Ransom wires the thing, so I keyed him on top of an exacta with the main players and HMB, GQ, CC, PoTN, SB and DP (to complete the Dubai Exacta).
Larry Jones used the same training techniques with Hard Spun as he did with Friesan Fire, and if someone had pinned Borel and Street Sense on the rail, he would have had his first Derby winner. Let's hope the hat comes off in the winner circle tomorrow...
Good luck everyone and enjoy the Derby.


Ernie said...

"Should set up a nice hyped up Ladies Classic down the road with the powerful Zenyatta, "

Here's hoping Rachel handles the artificial.

malcer said...

I checked five different articles about Zenyatta (incl. TT,BH,ESPN) to make sure I don't miss anything. Doesn't seem like there was any other reason than the ground for her scratch.

Regarding IWR: boy, can't take your eyes off the R360 wire for 15 minutes today without missing something important.


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