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Saturday, June 28, 2008

Weekend Handicapping

Welcome to the EquiSpace guide to negative ROI. Some interesting notes on the Mother Goose (G1) being run for the 52nd time today. The last two place finishers Pine Island (2006) and Lady Joanne (2007) went on to win the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga. The 2005 placer Spun Sugar finished second and the 2004 placer Ashado finished third, in the Bama respectively. Ashado, of course, went on to win the BC Distaff at Lone Star Park. So watch who hits the board (particulary second!) here for Alabama weekend. I remember watching the '05 Goose at the Niagara Falls OTB in between a wedding ceremony and reception, I think I was the only guy there with a suitcoat and tie on. It was a race between the three filly rivals of that summer namely Summerly, the aforementioned Spun Sugar and Smuggler. Smuggler went on to win that day over her two rivals, which ended up being a simple little tri box to pass the time. The same three made up the trifecta in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) that summer with Smuggler repeating again and the other two swapping spots.

Mother Goose Selections:
1 - Proud Spell (big surprise, but she's in my BC Fantasy Stable)
2 - Music Note (improving speed figs, could pull the upset)
3 - Hamsa (bullet work, improving figs, Tagg trainee)
4 - Never Retreat (should finish no worse than fourth) :-)

The Suburban Handicap (G1), the third leg of the New York Handicap Triple, features some interesting competitors with name horses A.P. Arrow and Hunting squaring off against NY-bred and NY track favorite Naughty New Yorker, Rick Dutrow entries Frost Giant/Rising Moon and Allen Jerkens' up and coming Merchant Marine (a Tiznow colt) coming back after winning eight days ago. AP Arrow appears to be the class of this field as only Hunting has a graded stakes win to his name within the field. Hard to believe it's been two years since Invasor captured this race.

Suburban Selections:
1 - AP Arrow (class of race)
2 - Merchant Marine (pedigree for distance, Javier up, i gots a feeling)
3 - Naughty New Yorker (form looks to improve every third race, Prado takes the mount)
4 - Harlington (Johnny V not on the Pletcher entry...hmmm)

Probably the best race of the day is the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) on the Left Coast, although the favorite Heatseeker has pulled out of the race with a swollen left ankle. That makes it anyone's race and more fun to handicap. Only two of the horses in the race have won at a mile and a quarter (9yo Perfect Drift and 6yo Student Council). Tiago has never even hit the board in three races at this distance. Lava Man won the last three Gold

Hollywood Gold Cup Selections:
1 - Student Council (hasn't handled the synth in the past, but showing good form, hot horse)
2 - Go Between (Gomez up, 4-2-2-0 on synth, close 2nd to Heatseeker in the Big Cap)
3 - Perfect Drift (the old boy still have it?)
4 - Mast Track (Tyler Baze up, good work on 6/22, decent synth, stretching out for 1st time)

A hearty welcome to the TBA to They're in the Gate (belated), The Business of Racing and The Saratoga Sire from this corner of the blogosphere.



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