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Friday, May 2, 2008

Derby 134

At this point, I'm making the call and it's Z Fortune. I love his pedigree, his jockey, his barn and his dosage index. He looked in the Arkansas Derby like he had some gas left in the tank, so I'm making him my 2008 Derby pick. Colonel John has the pedigree (his sire Tiznow won the BC Classic twice at the distance and once at Churchill), had a great work this week, he has an excellent post position and although the synth to dirt transition scares me, Gayego's performance in the Arkansas Derby has somewhat relieved that tension for me. Big Brown is the monster in the field (and maybe the only real Triple Crown threat), the fact that Dutrow boldly selected the outside post was very intriguing to me. He has a deceiving pedigree discussed in breeder Jim Squires' blog, that can get it done. Here's hoping he is avoided to some extent in the betting pools (due to the outside post) so that his price remains fair. Finally, Pyro should rebound from the Blue Grass effort and will be a factor underneath in the exotics, I just don't think he has the jock to pull off this race. I do like his post position and late running style should the race fall apart, I plan to play him sparingly in some saver exactas and tris.

Futures Bets: Cool Coal Man and Court Vision.

So my top four are as follows: 1 - Z Fortune, 2 - Colonel John, 3 - Big Brown and 4 - Pyro. It looks a tad chalky but when you narrow it down, these four have the best numbers, pedigree and posts (other than BB). Should the track come up sloppy Visionaire and Adriano will warrant further consideration (along with Pyro, who ran a decent 2nd in the slop at Monmouth in October behind War Pass in the Breeders Cup Juvenile). The fun part will be designing various exotic plays around those four!

Bella Cavello Update: The BCS has struck again! Jeroboam ($7.00), a 5yo gelding (by Disco Rico out of Ninetyeight), wired a $9K claimer at Charles Town last night from post 8 in race 6, for the Stables' third win in a row, with Wesley Ho up. I would play Pyro tomorrow boys, because you all are on fire!!



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