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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Welcome to Austin!

So I pick Derby week to work in Austin, Texas. Am I insane? Only to the fact that I checked how far away Lone Star Park was from was 3 hours away!!! I did enjoy the $1 Tecates at the Plugged Nickel however before submitting this report!!! I can hardly keep up with the Derby week emails, blog sites, etc. and try and do a good job on my current project… uh..well…it's all about priorities…damn it..let's get after an early prognosis of how to play the exotics, which will be most profitable come Saturday. I was provided today with several trifecta scenarios by ample handicappers to buy into, but I think I need to be a unified front in my selections come Saturday and die by the sword if that is what happens. I am sold into certain horses and will stick them as I did last year (see Hard Spun), so I am confident in my selection process. I am more confident in the exacta play so I think I will go there with my betting. I will report Saturday morning as to my exacta play and if I go into any trifecta pools.

For the first time (and I reserve judgment before the draw) I will throw out my favorites for the first two spots…with full disclosure that I have future plays with Court Vision and Cool Coal Man, both of which will cut my losses if they win (I'm sure you all understand!).

I will write tomorrow about my first Derby experience (and my hot Oaks Day in 06) and how much it meant to me as a handicapper and a race fan (watching Barbaro run out the stetch) being with some of my best pals watching an incredible sporting experience.

So here is what I like circa 2008 (pre-draw):

Big Brown (he could wire it)
Pyro ( throw out Blue Grass)
Col. John ( work convinced me)
Z Fortune ( Assman is holding back)

Those are the four that I think (pending a bad draw) will win the race.

Underneath at second:
The above plus Gayego, and Bob Black Jack (may throw win bets at him)

For third:
Those six and Monba and Visionaire.

OK…..that's from Tuesday night…and going with 8 total….I will reconvene Thursday for more analysis....and what I'll probably do is throw them all in an exacta box for $56 and hope for value.



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