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Saturday, April 26, 2008

Last Saturday in April

How did I spend the Last Saturday in April? I spent it compiling Derby statistics, of course. After crushing Dean Keppler’s newly-released book, Betting on the Kentucky Derby, in less than two hours, I decided to compile various stats on the twenty to twenty-three most likely entries in next week’s Derby. I didn’t realize the amount of research and time (sorry honey) it would take to compile such things as distance ratings, last three Beyers, dosage indexes, Pedigree information and the like.

While the Kentucky Derby has some various historical trends, most recently bucked by Street Sense (burying the Breeders Cup Juvenile Jinx), most of the trends seen in past Derby winners will most likely emerge in the winner next Saturday. Some of the areas discussed in Keppler’s book include: Beyer Speed Figures, post positions and track bias, Tomlinson ratings and pedigree handicapping, pre-Derby workouts and of course, the Preps. It presents various trends in each of these areas that past Derby winners have enjoyed. I’m hoping the chart will help me analyze and finalize my picks later next week. Not that I won’t have some gut feel to the process (as always).

Well, off to the Buffalo Bills draft party at Dave & Busters, where as a season ticket holder, I get the invite as a perquisite for having a couple club seats. This is their third annual draft day event and should be a nice way to pass a Saturday with a few beers, a few Mel Kiper jokes and to commence the annual optimistic journey towards opening day at the Ralph. The pick of choice seems to be a wide receiver or cornerback….here’s hoping for a wideout. I am still regretting the Bills passing on Matt Leinart at the ten spot from two years ago…



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