The Ides of Farch

Tweet We've hit the midpoint of Farch. You know that time between February and March in the Northeast where there is nothing but slush and dirty snow outside. No holidays in sight until the tulips show up...it can get to you if you aren't working 10 -12 hours a day. But I digress and need to keep farching ahead...

I tried my hand in the Equibase Handicapping Tournament this Saturday and had it rolling for a while hitting winners in three of the first four races. Unfortunately I fizzled out in the final four races with two seconds, finishing with $65.60, good for 26th place out of 1,986 entrants. My two big winners were Screenplay ($16.20) and Beckham Bend ($21.20), both of whom I didn't bet a dime on. That's what happens when you're chasing little Space Kids around the house. I was sniffing it with two races to go, I had long shot Little Drama (40-1 at post!) in the Hutcheson who finished a game third and Gourmet Dinner in the FOY who finished second. If I sweep those two....who knows?

I had been in a horrible slump getting beat at the wire it seems every weekend at Gulfstream in Pick 3's and Pick 4's. That finally ended yesterday when Marquet Madness, 8-1 on the morning line, anchored the final leg of a nice P3, to get me off the schneid. He drifted up to 16-1 and won by a nose hair over 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf champ Tapitsfly (who I left off my ticket) avoiding yet another bad beat. I loved his back class winning at Monmouth and couldn't believe when his odds started soaring. The Space Kid got a kick out of the happy dance I did for him after the photo result was announced. Have I mentioned that I love Elvis Trujillo? It was nice to hit one and I'm starting to feel better about my handicapping. My betting just sucks.

Look for Volume III of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen, of which I am an honored pollster on Wednesday. I submitted my selections early and they show up at my Post Time blog today in The Buffalo News.

Booked my flight for Preakness weekend today, thank you Southwest for your low internet fares! I will be attending my first Black-eyed Susan Day, after enjoying my inaugural Preakness invasion last spring.

I've not rooted for an NBA team since Dr. J's 76'ers back in the early 80s, after being a Big O/Lew Alcindor fan of the Milwaukee Bucks as a child. Now that Melo is a Knick, I think I'll start following them pretty regularly. I've always wanted to like them, and I was a fan of Earl the Pearl and Clyde when they dueled the Lakers in the early 70s. So call me a bandwagon guy if you like. Go ahead.

Some very good posts by some of my TBA comrades over the weekend. Patrick goes off at the current "leadership" over at the NTRA in the TBA's Bloodhorse Blog Stable and former Buffalonian Scott Jagow puts together a nice piece on how to market our sport in his Horsepuckey blog.

Now farch along...

In Other News....

Tweet The calendar has turned, and the slate has been swept clean. 2011 is here and the racing year 2010 is in the history books....well, other than that little vote to be revealed in a couple weeks in Miami Beach. So what's been cookin' in the Space Station over the holidays, you ask? Well...in other news.....

- You may have noticed that I have a new blog logo in the upper left hand sidebar. I have a couple of acquaintances in the Marketing/PR world, but I didn't want to bother them with my little blog, so I searched around to have someone design me a logo for the blog, among other things. I landed on the 48hourslogo.com website that holds contests for web designers to create logos for a minimum of $79, over a two-day period. You submit your logo specs, what look you have in mind, your price and then you receive designs to judge (my contest had 27 entries). My winning selection was from a designer in the Phillipines that kept working with me as I tweaked his logo through the structured process. I thought it was a very well run site and a great business concept. The website charges 10% on top of the logo price to host the contest. Let me know what you think....

- I joined the NHC Tour and got my arse handed to me in Sunday's online contest which featured races from Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Santa Anita. But finishing last means the same as finishing 6th (top 5 qualified), so we'll chalk it up to a learning experience.

- Space Gal gave me Satellite Radio (Sirius) for Xmas and I'm loving it. Especially channel 126!

- I attended the US-Canada World Juniors Hockey semifinal last night at HSBC Arena in Buffalo, and sat in the M&T suite (my firm's bankers) and I have to say that it was one of the best environments I've ever been in, prior to a sporting event. It was unbelievably electric and you could sense that the first goal would be a huge factor in setting the tone to the game. The crowd was a sea of red-clad Canadian fanatics who were as boisterous as any fan base I've ever been around. And I've been to Stanley Cup Finals, a World Series and an NCAA Hoop Final. They completely took over the arena, any attempt to get a USA chant going was completely drowned out by the Can-a-da chant to the same rhythm. Not to mention their boys took it to the red, white and blue all night long. After scoring the first goal three minutes into the game, they never looked back. It was an excellent experience, nonetheless.

- I spent some time studying my last three years of wagering (investing) statistics and found that my average wager increased 34%, my number of wagers was almost cut in half and I found myself in the black for the first time in three years. What do I attribute the positive results to? 1) I found that I had success at certain tracks (Gulfstream, Churchill and Saratoga) that I concentrated on; 2) My bet discipline was much better, as I focused on certain races that I felt confident in betting by taking a stand; 3) I didn't bet every race on the card; 4) I focused on Pick 3's and Pick 4's which focused myself on picking winners and; 5) I took long periods of time off to refresh in January, September and December.

- I've decided my wagering resolutions will be to stick with 2010's strategy and to stay away from tracks I don't normally play, other than a big prep race where I have some knowledge of the horses and trainers. I'm also resolved to have a winning Belmont Stakes Day for a change (haha) and avoid the annual bloodbath.

Ok....Gulfstream starts tomorrow...let's get after it...

Getting Dirty at the Great Race Place

Tweet One of the biggest stories leading into the New Year is the racing surface change at Santa Anita Park. An 83-day meet running through mid-April 2011 and highlighted by the Santa Anita Derby on April 3 commences this afternoon in Arcadia, California. The winter/spring meet is much anticipated as the return to all-natural dirt will be welcomed by handicappers and horsemen alike.

After the track owner failed to negotiate an agreement with the Oak Tree Racing Association for the fall meet, the track has been idle since April for the first time since 1968. “We’ve been idle for a long time and people are very anxious to come back to Santa Anita and we’re anxious to have them back. Additionally, many of our best customers are looking forward to racing on a dirt surface again, as are our horsemen,” said Santa Anita President George Haines. The other good news here is that the Breeders' Cup will be sure to return in the near future (2012?). My 2009 experience at the Great Race Place was second to none; the weather, the people and the backdrop were all truly spectacular.

Sunday’s opening day card includes two Grade 1 races, the $250,000 La Brea Stakes and the $250,000 Malibu Stakes as well as the Grade 2 Sir Beaufort Stakes. These three graded stakes races make up a Pick 3 starting at Race 6. So if you’re poo-pooing the players’ boycott, let’s take a stab at the graded stakes Pick 3 and we’ll feature the horses that will make up my Pick 3 play.

I know you were expecting an exacta or trifecta box, as it is Boxing Day, but we'll wrap up the year with my favorite wager. This most likely will my last wager of 2010, as we will focus the remainder of the week on Syracuse’s football bowl game and the World Junior Hockey Tournament being held in our hometown, Buffalo. Of course, make sure you check the scratches and the weather report (looking good this morning) before making your play.

Race 6 – La Brea Stakes, 7-furlong sprint for 3-year old fillies.

3 – Switch (Sadler, Rosario) – This filly has come out of two very good races in losing to the great Zenyatta in the Lady’s Secret and finishing second to Dubai Majesty in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. On class alone she has to be on my ticket.

7 – Malibu Pier (Gaines, Gomez) – This Malibu Moon filly should be rounding into form as she comes in third off the layoff (one of my favorite angles). Trainer Carla Gaines is 32% coming off a win and I like the cutback in distance here for the Pier. My top choice.

9 – Always a Princess (Baffert, Bejarano) – Hard to count out this combination and take note that Bejarano jumped off Malibu Pier to ride this filly. Her sire Leroidesanimaux was a terrific sprinter and Rafael is one of the best riders around.

Last horse tossed: Champagne d’Oro.

Race 7 – Sir Beaufort Stakes ($150,000), 1 mile (Turf) for 3-year olds.

4 – Sebastian Flyte (Cecil, Leparoux) – Julien Leparoux ships in to ride this 3-year old colt for Triple B Farms and gets a five pound weight break from the favorite. JuLep is shipping in for a reason and if you look at his last two races, he was right there in both, losing by a neck in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby and by 3/4 length in the Grade 2 Oak Tree Derby. That’s enough for me not to leave him off my ticket.

5 – Sidney’s Candy (Sadler, Rosario). The class of the race, Sidney’s Candy owned by the Craig Family Trust is as close to a single as I could find in this sequence. His speed figures are well above any of the others in this field, though he has never won at the mile distance. He shows a couple decent workouts and should be rested coming out of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing sixth behind the likes of Goldikova and Gio Ponti. The pick.

Race 8 – Malibu Stakes, 7 furlongs sprint for 3-year olds.

2 – Alcindor (Baffert, Bejarano). A late blooming 3-year old Unbridled’s Song colt (no relation to Kareem), that has two impressive wins in his only two races. He has the right connections, we’ll see if he’s for real, and he should be at a decent price based on the quality of the field.

3 – Thiskyhasnolimit (Asmussen, Gomez). Another horse with stellar connections and is cutting back in distance. Finished second to likely 3-year old champion Lookin at Lucky in the Indiana Derby and the 7-furlong distance might be the answer on Sunday.

5 – Noble’s Promise (McPeek, Leparoux). A horse for a moment looked like he was going to win the Kentucky Derby last May, ran a monster race on the Breeders’ Cup undercard winning the ungraded Jimmy V Stakes going away. Can handle the dirt and I won’t risk getting beat by him, so he’s on my ticket as part of a deep third leg (which I believe is the toughest in the sequence).

9 – Twirling Candy (Sadler, Rosario). Wouldn’t it be something if John Sadler swept this Pick 3? Don’t count him out with the horses he has going. This one suffered his first career loss trying older horses in the Grade 1 Goodwood, so I expect improvement in returning back against 3-year olds. This will be his first career start on dirt, but too much talent not to include him against these foes.

11 – Smiling Tiger (Bonde, Baze). Comes out of a super competitive Breeders’ Cup Sprint where he hit the board in third. He’s raced his last four against older horses, so he’s a seasoned 3-year old. The only question in my mind is better at a shorter distance. Too good to pass on.



Last horse tossed: Caracortado (he's going to beat me, isn't he?)


The Play: $1 Pick 3: 3,7,9/4,5/2,3,5,9,11 (Cost: $30)

Update (11:43PST - Sebastian Flyte scratched and we're off the Turf...will add Champagne D'Oro in the first leg and Caracortado in the Malibu and cut down the ticket to 4x1x6 to $24.

Good luck and let’s cash some tickets…