Monday Afternoon Quarterback

Tweet When I saw Commentator set the track record at Gulfstream Park last January in an allowance race, destroying the field by double digit (14!) lengths, I turned to the Space Gal and said, "wow, look out for him in 2008." That day he broke the track record and had a monstrous 119 beyer, a number that still stands as the highest beyer of the year for up to a mile (as listed in the DRF inside cover page). Who knew we would be seeing such an outstanding performance on a weekday afternoon at GP? He racked up another 14 length win on Saturday to take the G2 Massachusetts Handicap at Suffolk Downs on Saturday. Now that he has qualified for the Classic, will he partake? Zito has been very outspoken regarding the synthetic surfaces and may take a pass. If he does, look for an appearance in the Cigar Mile on Thanksgiving weekend (one of my favorite races) at Belmont.

And it looks like Proud Spell is done for the year, so we won't be seeing a rematch against Music Note in the Ladies' Classic on 24Oct at Oak Tree. She was raced quite often this calendar year and it showed on Saturday where she lost the Cotillion Stakes at Philly Park to Seattle Smooth. Still no word on whether she will be retired from racing. She ran every month from February to September, so she is probably one tired filly at this point. I'll never forget that stretch duel in the Alabama where she dug in to hang on against her main rival.

I wonder if Curlin will attract a crowd this weekend in the Big Apple for the Jockey Gold Cup on Saturday? I'm going to guess maybe 10,000 show up this weekend to see the best horse in the world? You know with all the posters they put up to attract a big crowd and all.

I let out a big cheer yesterday at the joint formerly known as Rich Stadium while me and 71,235 others were watching the FIRST PLACE Bills come from behind to shock the Raiders with 17 4th quarter points (i knew we were in trouble with the whole pirate holiday weekend thing). It happened during a break in the action (during the comeback) and I had the whole section staring at me wondering what in the world I was celebrating. Well, my seat was positioned perfectly to look into the HSBC box, which had the Ryder Cup on NBC, when Hunter Mahan hit that 60 footer on No. 17 at Valhalla, and since I am a proud American, what else could I do but celebrate? Good laughs...who knew I could multi-task during a sporting event? By the way, did I mention that the Bills are in FIRST PLACE?

I really enjoyed playing Fairplex and following some of the jockeys/trainers/horses, especially when I was in Vegas two weeks ago. They have some tight turns and it was interesting watching most of the jockeys handle them with ease, but some of the younger horses definitely missed a turn or two while I was watching. That would be one meet I'd like to attend one of these days. It's definitely on the list.

Photo courtesy: Associated Press

"Sometimes you step in the mud....

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......and pull out a $100 bill! That was the theme of my day at the National Handicapping Qualifier held yesterday afternoon at Sunset Station Casino in Henderson, Nevada.

My day started out in the rental car line at the Mirage to rent a car for the day trip to Henderson. Since it would be a $100 round trip cab ride I decided the $35 rental was money well spent, and would also curtail any alcohol consumption while handicapping. I arrived around 8.30am and registered with no problem with the $40 buy-in and received the rules. The folks at the Sunset Station were very pleasant and helpful answering the 40 questions I had. I learned there would be 5 mandatory races (which I could not obtain on Wednesday...that's a whole other rant) starting at approximately 1pm and running through 2:15pm back to back to back to back and a final race at 5pm. This was the only complaint I had as I had figured to be out of there by 3pm, but now had to alter my day's plans. However it is a casino and they want to keep you there playing/gambling as long as they can, so I guess I could see the reasoning.

The buy-in would be paid out in total (75 contestants @ $40) to the first five finishers (50%/20/15/10/5). No takeout!!! So ~$1,500 to the first place finisher and the top ten finishers qualify for another qualifier on 12/13 at the Red Rock with 2 spots available for the national tournament in January. I had no intentions other than to make a respectable showing and learn a few things on contest play. So here was my strategy going in......1) play nothing lower than 5-1; 2) look for turf races with lots of contenders; 3) stay away from tracks you don't know, concentrate on Belmont; and 4) save a selection for the end, cuz you may need it.

Of course, by 1pm that strategy was out the window. The SpaceGal even gave me implicit instructions to stick to the plan (I never do) because I always regret it when I change the plan even when things aren't going well. My strategy after the first three races turned into "go big or go home."

9:50am: First race...I'm between the opener at Monmouth and the opener at Belmont. Broke rule #3 "stay away from tracks you don't know." LATG left a good suggestion on Joaquin Memphis and I had scribbled some notes in my form about him. He drifts up to 13-1 or so and pays $12.80 to place. Would've been a nice start. Of course, I played Miss South Slope (9-2 ML) that drifted up to 13-1 and it finishes off the board with Joey Bravo's horse the winner paying $6. Note for later, Joey Bravo is the best jock at Monmouth (this much i know)...0 for 1.

11:14am: Third race at Laurel. Again, breaking rule #3 (way to stick to the plan). However, Bella Cavello has a horse in this race (M.E's Smile who I have blogged about), so I looked for a little inside info and traded a few emails on how pace would set up. I play Doots (8-1), who the experts love in the Form, his running line looks good and it's a wide open turf race (so i figured rule #2 overruled rule #3 plus I had some pace info from the BCS owner). I'm worried about the two Gilded horses (Gilded Arrow and Gilded Thread). The Gildeds run 1-2 and Doots finishes 10th with no rally. I'm 0 for 2 and starting to worry about the shutout.

12:12pm: I calm down after an hour of fretting, but letting 3 or 4 races at Belmont pass as I can't decide and think they are chalky (sticking heavily to rule#1). Although I kick myelf for not playing Javier on the turf to get on the board with Show Me the Cash (winner of the 4th paying $9.80/$4.20). So I drift back to Laurel Park again (am I nuts?) and play the 5th race, a 9 horse turf sprint. I really like the chances of What She Said (5-1 ML)...who stays right at her monring line. The race unfolds and she is closing late...i start to yell (i never do this) and there is some bumping...she can't get there and finishes 3rd. I'm going to shoot myself. Wait. Inquiry. Hold the phone. Yep, the stewards move her up to 2nd and I'm on the board, shutout averted. It pays $5.80, I must be in 72nd place.

12:45pm: Go big or go home strategy now in full force. Channing Hill (the mad bomber) is my guy. I watched him win on two pretty niced price horses yesterday while in downtown Vegas and he's my guy right now. He's on Turaath in the 6th (a $500K horse running in a $53 Mdn Sp Wt) with 20-1 morning line. I also have highlighted in the Form the workouts by Vindgari, a firster, from handicapping late Weds night (6-1 ML). I play the bomber who skies up to 41-1. I watched him throughout the Spa meet hit on bombers...this is the one. He looks good, staying back in the early stages, and then makes his charge. I start to yell again as he tries to hit the board with a late close. Arrrrr. 3rd place. Who wins? Vindgari at 17-1 paying $37/$19, which would have added $56 to my tote. Oh well, mandatories start in 15 minutes. I have one non-mandatory play left and a total of $5.80.

12:57pm: Mandatory play #1...8th at Monmouth. I get a place ($2.60) with 8-5 Sister Shockey (the aformentioned Joey Bravo up), who inexplicably went from 4-1 to 8-5 with 1 MTP. I played it too soon. Total after 5 races: $8.40.

1:12pm: This is where I commit the worst mistake ever. I play the mad bomber again, giving up my last non-mandatory play, when I have a horse I have starred and highlighted in the 8th at Belmont (but it's a 12-1 ML and Hill's horse has gone up to 22-1) so I decide to shoot my wad with Channing on Classic Impact who has won at the distance and looks to be freshened. Huge traffic issues and he finishes 5th, only about 5 back. More on the mistake to follow.

1:17pm: Mandatory race #2...8th at Calder (at least I stayed away from there). Don't I have the 6-1 winner Old Faithful (making a major class drop from Sp Wt to Clm) who closes late (no yelling this time) and it pays handsomely ($15.40/$8) adding $23.40 to my total, so I'm now at $31.80, with 3 races to go.

1:37pm: Mandatory race #3...8th at Laurel. I play 3-1 (it was up to 6-1) on morning line favorite Brickel, who wins and pays $7.60/$3.40, so now I'm up to $42.80. Hold the presses, they post the leaders and I'm only $13 out of 10th place. Holy cow.

1:45pm: So now I'm still in the thick of things with 2 races left (both mandatory and one is at Belmont) and feeling ok. But here's where I frigged up. I am watching Belmont's 8th and the horse I liked last night, Let's Fly Away (the horse I have starred and highlighted) with CV up and it creeps up to 20-1. I have no plays left (breaking rule #4 to save one), so what the hell...i play $5 win/place with real money and watch him close to victory paying $43.80/$12.80. I win $141.50!!! Stepped in the mud and pulled out a C-note. I sheepishly collect and the teller asks me for my contest ticket for the play also? Umm...I was out of plays. The $56 would have vaulted me to the lead. Oh well, live and learn. Shoulda listened to the SpaceGal.

2:17pm: Mandatory race #4...9th at Belmont. Sweet Bama Breeze is the odds on favorite. Last night I liked intoxicatinglady and my Weds night handicapping had been on the money so far. SBB has seconditis (as noted by LATG in same post) and I need a longer play. I decide to go big with the #5 Token Choice at 28-1, a horse who has run off turf twice and was meant for turf, so I think it might have a shot to hit second. Finishes 5th , SBB wins (with a total that wouldn't have helped me) and intoxicatinglady finishes 3rd (wouldn't have helped either). Well, that was that.

5:00pm: Mandatory race #5...9th at Fairplex. I've done fairly well at Fairplex throughout the week in the race book. I play Lucky Honey, who finishes 2nd, paying $6.80. I finish with $49.60 on my mythical $40 bankroll ($2.48 ROI). I am pleased with the showing and lessons learned. I leave with a smile on my face. The Sunset Station manager, Paul Morris, promises to send me the final results, but I figure I'm in the top 25 based on the leaderboard postings. I also walk out with a spare $141, thanks to Let's Fly Away.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. But what a blast. Definitely going to try again someday.

Next time though, I'll stick to the plan (yeah, right).

They're calling my plane.....back to normal tomorrow. I didn't have time to spell/grammar check this post, so forgive any issues.

I love Vegas.

Report from Sin City

Tweet We're looking live from the Mirage Race and Sports Book! Yeah, that's the best Brent Musberger imitation I coud come up with (much better with audio). Arrived Monday morning to 100 degree heat in Sin City rarin' to go.

Day one (Monday): Off to a rousing start, playing some tracks I don't normally play (Fairplex, Mountaineer and Prairie Medadows). Not knowing the jockey/trainer combinations made it a little difficult, but tried to stay with normal handicapping angles (class drops, etc.) helped, especially at Fairplex. It reminded me of playing Fort Erie with Woodbine (synth) shippers as the Fairplex track is one of the only dirt tracks in California and most of the horses were coming from Hollywood, SA or Del Mar, and running on dirt for the first time. Anyways, we had some good fortune on day one hitting two trifectas, one exacta and a win bet at Fairplex. Mountaineer was another story until the last play of the day resulted in a nice $127 trifecta with a 9-1 on top, good times! A Ryan Grant 1st quarter touchdown was the only thing that kept me away from a perfect day one. What, three tries inside the five and he can't get it done (at 5-1 no less)! Finished the day with a hearty meal at Joe's Stone Crabs with the Space Gal (mmm).

Day two (Tuesday): Exploration day. Since most tracks were dark I decided to venture to some of the other casinos and check out the race books. Caesar's had the best televisions and I would say is second best, Treasure Island seemed a bit smallish, but cozy, and the Venetian one didn't seem to focus on racing as much as the other sports. I think I like the Mirage's the best so far, we'll see how the downtown race books look when I venture out on Wednesday. Tried my hand at craps at TI, looks like I'll stay with handicapping based on my five minute venture to the tables, although my partner promises to school me today downtown. Finished the day with the Mirage buffet, the Danny Gans show (awesome) and the TI pirate ship battle with the Space Gal.

Day three (Weds): Today we head downtown and I should pick up the mandatories for the NHC Qualifier on Thursday, so I can take a look at them prior to the contest. The contest is 15 mythical $2 WP bets with seven or eight mandatory plays, with a $40 entry fee. The top ten finishers qualify for a Dec 13 qualifier at the Red Rock. Casino Station, the contest location, is in Henderson, so an early trip tomorrow, to get a feel for the surroundings and understand the rules, is in order.

Betting Notes

Interesting lines out here, the Patriots went from top choice at 5/2 to sixth choice to win the Super Bowl (7-1 currently) after Tom Brady went down on Snday. Which also gives my Bills (22-1, down from 60-1) some optimism, although the NY Post is playing up this week's Pats-Jets (8-1, down from 75-1 per Favre) game to be a huge payback contest. The Ralph was shakin' on Sunday, more good times to come from Orchard Park.

Penn State (or State Penn, whichever side you're on) is a 27 point favorite over my hometown Syracuse Orangemen (i refuse to call them the Orange), a game PSU alum Space Gal and I will be attending with respective families at the Carrier Dome. Unfortunately I think it's going to be a rout on national TV....

More tomorrow night to report on the contest....here goes nothing (let's hope $0.00 isn't the result).