RSS Feed for this Blog
RSS Feed for all TBA Posts

Friday, May 16, 2008

Black-Eyed Susan Day

It's Black-Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico, where 13 races starting in just a few minutes will be on tap today, with live coverage from espn2 at 3:30pm for races 8 through 12 (the feature). The two big races are the Pimlico Special Handicap for 4yo's and up, which was featured yesterday here, and the Black-Eyed Susan (race 12) for 3yo fillies.

My sources tell me it is drizzling today at pimlico, but the weather should not be a factor as it was on Oaks day at Churchill. In the Special, I like AP Arrow to handle this field under the red-hot Ramon Dominguez for the Toddster. For second I like Grasshopper who seems to always catch a piece of the exacta to be followed by Gottcha Gold and Temporary Saint. Those four are the front end of my main Special/Preakness double plays. I'm still not sold on 7yo Wanderin Boy on two weeks rest to be a factor.

In the day's feature event, the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan, there are several top contenders in the 3yo filly category taking a shot at the $200K purse. Highest Class, gets Robby Albardo back and should rebound to the form shown in her stakes at the Fair Grounds versus Indian Blessing and Proud Spell, she's the top choice here. Sweet Vendetta, bred by David Cassidy, (did Susan Dey have black eyes...could be a clue) also comes off two of three wins, her second to Oaks 2nd place finisher Little Belle. Shes All Eltish is my choice to round out the trifecta with GG in the irons. Others to consider in the exotics, Bsharpsonata (my Oaks choice running back on 2 weeks rest) and Maren's Meadows (Jones/Saez) who comes off a nice win in the Bourbonette at Turfway and this barn has a nice record off the layoff.

In Preakness news, it appears that Behindatthebar is out, reducing the field to 12 horses. Dick Powell likes Ichabad Crane, Kentucky Bear and Giant Moon. He was on target with Denis of Cork being a factor in the Derby, and his opinion has to be respected. Preakness plays to be displayed tomorrow morning. Good luck to all!


Thursday, May 15, 2008

Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Fun

Remember the old Doublemint slogan, "double your pleasure, double your gum?" Well, tomorrow's big double play is the Pimlico Special/Preakness double. The Special/Preakness double is back after a year hiatus when the Black-Eyed Susan was the front end of the double. When looking at the Special it has an interesting mix of older horses who have had exceptional careers running in some major races. The question on the back end is do you single Big Brown (off to stud) due to the weak competition in the Preakness and increase the bet size? The three horses I favor in the Special are AP Arrow (#4, 5-2 ML) second in the Donn at Gulfstream in February bya 1/2 length and well rested at age 6, Grasshopper (#7, 3-1 ML), he of the big dual with Street Sense last year at the Travers, who ran 3 weeks back at Belmont and has been part of the exacta in 9 of his last 10 races (included the last 5 in graded stakes), and Temporary Saint (#9, 10-1 ML), with Johnny V up. The Saint last raced in early April at Aqueduct winning the Excelsior and has shown improving figs over the past six months. While I am a Wanderin Boy (#6, 8-1 ML) fan, I just don't see him running back so quickly at age 7, after the energy expended in the slop on Oaks Day, and am not convinced that Student Council (#3, 6-1 ML) will run back to previous form, first time on dirt since last September when he won the Hawthorne Gold Cup. Xchanger hasn't proven he can go this distance and will be the likely early speed. Gottcha Gold (#2, 9-2 ML) has won some G3's, but he has the class and speed figs to pull an upset, so I'm throwing him in also.

The other way to catch some value is obviously to beat the Big Brown Machine. The only other horse that I think has a chance is Gayego (G2 winner in Ark Derby), thus we'll play a second ticket with him and my top four and a saver with Student Council.

So I'm thinking the following:

$10 Double: 2,4,7,9 with 7 (Big Brown) cost $40
$2 Double: 2,4,7,9 with 12 (Gayego) cost $8
$2 Double: 3 with 7, 12 cost $4

Double your pleasure, double your fun...

 

blogger templates 3 columns | Make Money Online